1
VTrans Update:Demographics Trends
Nick Donohue, Director, Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment (OIPI)
John Miller, Ph.D., P.E., Virginia Transportation Research Council (VTRC)
Commonwealth Transportation Board Workshop
June 18, 2019
AGENDA
2
• VTrans Requirements
• Demographic Trends– Demographics Overview
– Population Trends
– Employment Trends
– Income Trends
VTRANS REQUIREMENTS
3
• Key Requirements– Federal requirements per 23 U.S.C. 135 and other
– § 33.2-353: OIPI to assist the CTB in the development and update of a Statewide Transportation Plan.
– § 2.2-229: OIPI to assist the Commonwealth Transportation Board in the development of a comprehensive, multimodal transportation policy, which may be developed as part of the Statewide Transportation Plan pursuant to § 33.2-353.
• Several other business requirements
ON-GOING AND COMPLETED WORK
4
• Trends Analysis– Demographic and Land Use Trends (this presentation)
– Vulnerability Assessment – Flooding and Sea Level Rise (next presentation)
– Technology Trends
– Financial Trends
• Economic Profiles
• Mid-Term Needs Assessment (next presentation)
Text: Indicates tasks covered today
5
VTRANS TRENDS ANALYSIS : DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
Authors: Haritha Bhairavabhatla, Amy O’Leary, Maddison Gasse, and John Miller
DEMOGRAPHICS OVERVIEW
6
• Geographies: Statewide, CTB Construction Districts and modified PDCs
• Population, employment, and income trends
• Major data sources:– Forecast population: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service
– Forecast employment: Woods & Poole
– Forecast income: Moody’s Analytics
WHY PDCS AND DISTRICTS?
7
• In 1980, the population for year 2000 was forecast. How accurate was the forecast?
• Average percent error:
– By zone: 39%
– By region: 10%
Source: McCray et al. Improving Socioeconomic Land Use Forecastingfor Medium-Sized Metropolitan Planning Organizations in Virginia, 2009.
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTS IS ACKNOWLEDGED IN VIRGINIA
8
2045 Population Forecast for Arlington County + Alexandria City
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTS IS ACKNOWLEDGED ELSEWHERE
9
Variable Entity 2017-2040
Population
Population (Washington D.C.)
D.C. Office of Planning 49%
MWCOG 28%
Employment (Washington D.C.)
D.C. Office of Planning 28%
MWCOG 25%
Source: Calculated from data provided in Move DC: The District of Columbia’s Multimodal Long-Range Transportation Plan, 2014
Note: MWCOG – Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
IMPLICATION FOR TRANSPORTATION
10
2017-2045
employment:
5% to 19%
forecast growth
Source: Woods & Poole (19% figure) and IHS Markit (5%) figure
10
11
VTRANS TRENDS ANALYSIS: POPULATION TRENDS
HISTORICAL POPULATION CHANGE BY DISTRICT – 2000-2017
12Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service and the U.S. Census Bureau.
Statewide Population Change: 19.6%
HISTORICAL POPULATION CHANGE BY PDC – 2000-2017
13
Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service and the U.S. Census Bureau.
Statewide Population Change: 19.6%
HISTORICAL POPULATION BY DISTRICT
14Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service and the U.S. Census Bureau.
(By District)• The Hampton Roads
and Northern Virginia construction districts account for about 50% of Virginia’s total population
FORECAST POPULATION CHANGE BY DISTRICT – 2017-2045
15
Statewide Population Change: 24%
Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Serviceand the U.S. Census Bureau.
FORECAST POPULATION CHANGE BY PDC – 2017-2045
16
Statewide Population Change: 24%
Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service and the U.S. Census Bureau.
AGE DISTRIBUTION - STATEWIDE
17
• For 2017 to 2045– Persons age 65+ are forecast to increase 56% (to 1.99 million)
– Persons age 75+ are forecast to increase 104% (to 1.05 million)
Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service and the U.S. Census Bureau.
AGE DISTRIBUTION BY DISTRICT
18
Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service and the U.S. Census Bureau.
POPULATION FORECAST CHANGE AGED 75+ – 2017-2045
19
Statewide Population Change Aged 75+: 104%
Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service and the U.S. Census Bureau.
IMPLICATION FOR TRANSPORTATION
20
• Transportation Needs of Persons Age 65+– Currently account for a smaller proportion of population in urban areas, yet
urban areas may see a larger relative increase out to 2045
– Percent adults who drive:
o 88% (at age 65)
o 69% (at age 75)
• Virginia’s border states recognize this need. Examples: – Tennessee is emphasizing roadway design elements for this population
– North Carolina notes aging in place trends and needs for paratransit
Sources: DeGood (2011), Weldon Cooper for Public Service, Tennessee Department of Transportation (2045), Atkins (2011)
District 2017 Age 65+ 2045 Age 65+
Hampton Roads 14% 19%
Lynchburg 20% 22%
21
VTRANS TRENDS ANALYSIS: EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT – STATE
22
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
1975 2000 2017
Source: Aggregated from figures reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (2018b).
• Employment growth slowed after 2000.
• Before 2000: 3.3%
• After 2000: 0.6%
HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT BY DISTRICT
23
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1975 2000 2017
Source: Aggregated from figures reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (2018b).
HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY DISTRICT – 2000-2017
24
Statewide Employment Change: 11%
Source: Data provided by Bureau of Labor Statistics (2018b).
HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY PDC – 2000-2017
25
Statewide Employment Change: 11%
Source: Data provided by Bureau of Labor Statistics (2018b).
HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT- KEY TAKEAWAYS
26
• Since 1975, employment has become more concentrated in fewer PDCs (as has population)
• Share of statewide employment for the Northern Virginia and George Washington PDCs grew from 21% (in 1975) to 36% (in 2017)
• Almost half of PDCs saw employment drop (2000-2017) compared to none (1975-2000)
FORECAST EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY DISTRICT – 2017-2045
27
Statewide Employment Change: 44%
Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
FORECAST EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY PDC – 2017-2045
28
Statewide Employment Change: 44%
Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
HOW DO THESE FORECASTS ACCOUNT FOR THE UNEXPECTED ARRIVAL OF A
LARGE EMPLOYER?
29
• Example: Amazon HQ2 comes. What happens to our forecasts?
Employment Growth
2017-2045
Without
Amazon
With
Amazon
Local (Arlington County) 17.6% 44.4%
PDC Level (Northern Virginia) 56.4% 61.8%
Population Growth
2017-2045
Without
Amazon
With
Amazon
Local (Arlington County) 16.2% 24.2%
PDC Level (Northern Virginia) 41.8% 50.7%
Source: Local changes from Fuller and Chapman (2018). PDC level data from Woods & Poole.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: STATEWIDE EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Em
plo
ym
en
t (t
ho
usa
nd
s)
Virginia 2000 Virginia 2017 Virginia 2045Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
30
FORECAST EMPLOYMENT- KEY TAKEAWAYS
31
• Employment concentration grows: PDCs of Northern Virginia and George Washington had 21% of Virginia jobs (1975) yet may have 41% of jobs in the future (2045)
• For new jobs being created 2017-2045:– Three PDCs account for 75% (Hampton Roads, Northern Virginia, Richmond Regional)
– Six PDCs account for 85% (Three above plus George Washington, Roanoke Valley, Central Shenandoah)
• Job growth 2017-2045 uneven by sector:– Health care and social assistance: 90%
– Professional and technical services employment: 61%
– Manufacturing: - 6%
32
VTRANS TRENDS ANALYSIS: INCOME TRENDS
HISTORICAL/FORECAST MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME – STATE
33
(All in 2009 $)
2000 2017 2045
$61,502 $68,351 $85,741
Source: Data provided by Moody’s Analytics.
2017 MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
34Source: Data provided by Moody’s Analytics.
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME CHANGE BY DISTRICT – 2000-2017
35
Statewide Median Household Income Change: 11%
2000 - $61,502 2017- $68,351
Source: Data provided by Moody’s Analytics.
FORECAST MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME CHANGE BY DISTRICT – 2017-2045
36
Statewide Median Household Income Change: 25%
2017- $68,3512045 - $85,741
Source: Data provided by Moody’s Analytics.
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME CHANGE BY PDC – 2000-2017
37
Statewide Median Household Income Change: 11%
2000 - $61,502 2017- $68,351
Source: Data provided by Moody’s Analytics.
38
Statewide Median Household Income Change: 25%
2017- $68,3512045 - $85,741
FORECAST MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME CHANGE BY PDC – 2017-2045
Source: Data provided by Moody’s Analytics.
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME- KEY TAKEAWAYS
39
• Median household income (in 2017) varies by more than a factor of three among PDCs, from $30,356 (Lenowisco) to $104,225 (Northern Virginia).
• Median household income (in constant 2009 dollars) is forecast to grow, between 2017 and 2045, by 25%.
• Larger percentage increases in income are forecast for some districts and PDCs with lower 2017 median incomes.
• Presently, 18 of 21 PDCs have incomes below the statewide average
IMPLICATIONS FOR TRANSPORTATION
40
• Implication 1. Historically, higher incomes have been associated with increased demand for travel.– Example: In the past, VMT increases were associated with income increases.
– Caveat: This linkage may be diminishing, but affected by several factors
• Implication 2. Certain occupations presently have longer commute times than other occupations. Examples:– Educational services employment: 23.1 minutes
– Professional and technical services employment: 29.3 minutes
Sources: Kopf, D. Which Professions Have the Longest Commutes?, Woods and Poole, Memmott, J. Trends in Personal Income and Passenger Vehicle Miles
ECONOMIC-TRANSPORTATION LINKAGES | INDUSTRY CLUSTERS
41
ECONOMIC-TRANSPORTATION LINKAGES | INDUSTRY CLUSTERS
42
Kn
ow
led
ge-B
ased • Mixed-use
development
• Walking between destinations
• Traditional peak commute times
• Airport access
Loca
l Ser
vin
g • Different peak commute times
• Customer traffic
• Trip-chaining destinations
• Truck deliveries
Frei
ght
Dep
end
ent • Shift hours
• Truck origins and destinations
• Rail, port and/or airport access
• Remote locations
Different industry clusters have different Needs, Opportunities and Constraints for efficient transportation
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: EXAMPLE PDC EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole
43
Local Serving Freight Dependent Knowledge-Based
No
rth
ern
Vir
gin
ia
36%
56%
8%
2000A
cco
mac
k-N
ort
ham
pto
n
14%
54%
31%13%
57%
30%
10%
58%
31%
37%
54%
9%
31%
60%
10%
2017
25%
64%
11%
2045
44
VTRANS DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDSADDITIONAL DATA – DEMOGRAPHIC DATA BY CONSTRUCTION DISTRICT
45
Bristol District
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: AGE DISTRIBUTION BY DISTRICT
46
Bristol District
UNDER 20 20-64 YEARS 65 & OVER
25%
25%
27%
21%
21%
24%
56%
60%
62%
54%
58%
61%
19%
15%
11%
25%
21%
15%
2045
2017
2000
2045
2017
2000
Stat
ew
ide
Bri
sto
l
Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Emp
loym
ent
(th
ou
san
ds)
Bristol 2000 Bristol 2017 Bristol 2045
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
47Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
48
Local Serving Freight Dependent Knowledge-Based
Bristol
29%
62%
9%
2017
37%
55%
8%
2000
27%
64%
10%
2045
Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
49
Salem District
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: AGE DISTRIBUTION BY DISTRICT
50
Salem District
UNDER 20 20-64 YEARS 65 & OVER
25%
25%
27%
23%
23%
25%
56%
60%
62%
54%
58%
60%
19%
15%
11%
23%
19%
15%
2045
2017
2000
2045
2017
2000
Stat
ew
ide
Sale
m
Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Emp
loym
ent
(th
ou
san
ds)
Salem 2000 Salem 2017 Salem 2045
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
51Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
52
Local Serving Freight Dependent Knowledge-Based
Salem
34%
54%
12%
2000
26%
61%
13%
2017
22%
65%
13%
2045
Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
53
Lynchburg District
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: AGE DISTRIBUTION BY DISTRICT
54
Lynchburg District
UNDER 20 20-64 YEARS 65 & OVER
25%
25%
27%
24%
23%
26%
56%
60%
62%
54%
57%
58%
19%
15%
11%
22%
20%
16%
2045
2017
2000
2045
2017
2000
Stat
ew
ide
Lyn
chb
urg
Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Emp
loym
ent
(th
ou
san
ds)
Lynchburg 2000 Lynchburg 2017 Lynchburg 2045
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
55Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
56
Local Serving Freight Dependent Knowledge-Based
Lynchburg
37%
54%
8%
2000
27%
63%
11%
2017
22%
65%
13%
2045
Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
57
Richmond District
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: AGE DISTRIBUTION BY DISTRICT
58
Richmond District
UNDER 20 20-64 YEARS 65 & OVER
25%
25%
27%
24%
24%
28%
56%
60%
62%
56%
60%
61%
19%
15%
11%
19%
15%
12%
2045
2017
2000
2045
2017
2000
Stat
ew
ide
Ric
hm
on
d
Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.
0
50
100
150
200
250
Emp
loym
ent
(th
ou
san
ds)
Richmond 2000 Richmond 2017 Richmond 2045
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
59Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
60
Local Serving Freight Dependent Knowledge-Based
Richmond
23%
59%
17%
2000
18%
64%
18%
2017
15%
67%
18%
2045
Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
61
Hampton Roads District
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: AGE DISTRIBUTION BY DISTRICT
62
Hampton Roads District
UNDER 20 20-64 YEARS 65 & OVER
25%
25%
27%
24%
25%
29%
56%
60%
62%
56%
61%
60%
19%
15%
11%
19%
14%
11%
2045
2017
2000
2045
2017
2000
Stat
ew
ide
Ham
pto
n R
oad
s
Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.
0
50
100
150
200
250
Emp
loym
ent
(th
ou
san
ds)
Hampton Roads 2000 Hampton Roads 2017 Hampton Roads 2045
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
63Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
64
Local Serving Freight Dependent Knowledge-Based
Hampton Roads
20%
66%
14%
2000
16%
70%
14%
2017
14%
73%
13%
2045
Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
65
Fredericksburg District
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: AGE DISTRIBUTION BY DISTRICT
66
Fredericksburg District
UNDER 20 20-64 YEARS 65 & OVER
25%
25%
27%
26%
26%
29%
56%
60%
62%
54%
59%
59%
19%
15%
11%
20%
16%
12%
2045
2017
2000
2045
2017
2000
Stat
ew
ide
Fre
de
rick
sbu
rg
Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Emp
loym
ent
(th
ou
san
ds)
Fredericksburg 2000 Fredericksburg 2017 Fredericksburg 2045
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
67Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
68
Local Serving Freight Dependent Knowledge-Based
Fredericksburg
23%
63%
13%
2000
18%
69%
13%
2017
14%
73%
13%
2045
Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
69
Culpeper District
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: AGE DISTRIBUTION BY DISTRICT
70
Culpeper District
UNDER 20 20-64 YEARS 65 & OVER
25%
25%
27%
24%
24%
27%
56%
60%
62%
54%
59%
61%
19%
15%
11%
21%
17%
12%
2045
2017
2000
2045
2017
2000
Stat
ew
ide
Cu
lpe
pe
r
Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Emp
loym
ent
(th
ou
san
ds)
Culpeper 2000 Culpeper 2017 Culpeper 2045
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
71Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
72
Local Serving Freight Dependent Knowledge-Based
Culpeper
24%
62%
14%
2000
18%
66%
16%
2017
15%
68%
17%
2045
Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
73
Staunton District
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: AGE DISTRIBUTION BY DISTRICT
74
Staunton District
UNDER 20 20-64 YEARS 65 & OVER
25%
25%
27%
25%
24%
26%
56%
60%
62%
54%
58%
60%
19%
15%
11%
22%
18%
14%
2045
2017
2000
2045
2017
2000
Stat
ew
ide
Stau
nto
n
Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Emp
loym
ent
(th
ou
san
ds)
Staunton 2000 Staunton 2017 Staunton 2045
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
75Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
76
Local Serving Freight Dependent Knowledge-Based
Staunton
38%
53%
9%
2000
29%
61%
10%
2017
23%
66%
11%
2045
Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
77
Northern Virginia District
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: AGE DISTRIBUTION BY DISTRICT
78
Northern Virginia District
UNDER 20 20-64 YEARS 65 & OVER
25%
25%
27%
26%
26%
27%
56%
60%
62%
59%
62%
65%
19%
15%
11%
15%
11%
7%
2045
2017
2000
2045
2017
2000
Stat
ew
ide
No
rth
ern
Vir
gin
ia
Source: Data provided by Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Emp
loym
ent
(th
ou
san
ds)
Northern Virginia 2000 Northern Virginia 2017 Northern Virginia 2045
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
79Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
80
Local Serving Freight Dependent Knowledge-Based
Northern Virginia
14%
54%
31%
2000
13%
57%
30%
2017
10%
58%
31%
2045
Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
81
Statewide
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: STATEWIDE EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Em
plo
ym
en
t (t
ho
usa
nd
s)
Virginia 2000 Virginia 2017 Virginia 2045
82Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: STATEWIDE EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
83
Local Serving Freight Dependent Knowledge-Based
Statewide
23%
58%
19% 18%
63%
19% 15%
65%
20%
Source: Data provided by Woods and Poole.