Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyroland Bavaria
Kühtai (2020-2520m); 12.12.2004 © Robert Steiger
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Overview
• Climate-trend• Snow reliable ski resorts today / 2050• Technical snow reliability• Future (of) snow-making
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Climatic trends – Temperature
Trawöger 2003
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Climatic trends - Temperature
Trawöger 2003
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Climatic trends – Winter sport days
Trawöger 2003
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
Bavaria TyrolToday
24 %
49 %
27 %
Today
74 %
18 %
8 %
97,5%
2,5 %
2050 (2 K) 2050 (2 K)
19 %
27 %
54 %
Snow reliability
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Kitzbühel
SöldenIschgl
Lenggries Sudelfeld
Garmisch
Lienz
Oberstdorf
Jenner
Mayrhofen
50.00020.00010.0005.000
100.000
Lift capacity(persons per hour)
not snow-reliablelimited snow reliabilitysnow-reliable
Snow reliability
Ski resorts and snow reliability - today
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
50.00020.00010.0005.000
100.000
Lift capacity(persons per hour)
not snow-reliablelimited snow reliabilitysnow-reliable
Snow reliability
Kitzbühel
SöldenIschgl
Lenggries Sudelfeld
Garmisch
Lienz
Oberstdorf
Jenner
Mayrhofen
Ski resorts and snow reliability - 2050
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
What about Snowmaking?
Ischgl, 03.12.2004 © Michael Schneider
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Technical snow reliability – Methodology (1)
Ablation Accumulation
Necessary snow-making days
0
Degree-day model
Diurnal averagetemperatures
Snow making capacity
Days with T<0°C /-2°C
Potentialsnow-making days
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Required days for snow-making=
[((degree-days / month) * factor)*1,91]*0,025
Technical snow-reliability – Methodology (2)
Ablation Snow-makingcapacity
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Technical snow reliability – Results
Natural snow reliability 2050 (>1800m )
Technical snow reliability today (all elevations)
Natural snow reliability today (>1200m )
Technical snow reliability 2050 (>1500m)
Kitzbühel, 16.04.2005 © Robert Steiger
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
50.00020.00010.0005.000
100.000
Lift capacity(persons per hour)
not snow-reliablelimited snow reliabilitysnow-reliable
Snow reliability
Kitzbühel
SöldenIschgl
Lenggries Sudelfeld
Garmisch
Lienz
Oberstdorf
Jenner
Mayrhofen
Ski resorts and technical snow reliability - 2050
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
50.00020.00010.0005.000
100.000
Lift capacity(persons per hour)
not snow-reliablelimited snow reliabilitysnow-reliable
Snow reliability
Kitzbühel
SöldenIschgl
Lenggries Sudelfeld
Garmisch
Lienz
Oberstdorf
Jenner
Mayrhofen
Ski resorts and snow reliability - 2050
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
50.00020.00010.0005.000
100.000
Lift capacity(persons per hour)
not snow-reliablelimited snow reliabilitysnow-reliable
Snow reliability
Kitzbühel
SöldenIschgl
Lenggries Sudelfeld
Garmisch
Lienz
Oberstdorf
Jenner
Mayrhofen
Ski resorts and technical snow reliability - 2050
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Reduction of snow reliable skiing area
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Future (of) snow-making ?
Snow-making will still possible even below 1500m with
• an increased snow production capacity (less than 5 daysfor 20 cm)
• temperature independent snow making facilities
But this means:
• massive future investments• rising operating costs
Mölltaler Gletscher,22.12.2006 © ManG
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Cost of future snow-making
Potential snow-making days
-40 % to -20 %
Rising demand for artificial snow
+70 % to +200 %
Snow-making cost rise by
+200 % to +280 %
+
Mölltaler Gletscher,22.12.2006 © ManG
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Alternatives
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
???
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Bavaria(n=41)
Tyrol(n=213)
Snow reliable 24 % (10 resorts) 68 % (145 resorts)
Limited snow-reliability 49 % (20 resorts) 23 % (48 resorts)
Not snow reliable 27 % (11 resorts) 9 % (20 resorts)
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Inhaltsfolie
• Inhaltsfolie
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Inhaltsfolie
• Technical snow-reliability –Methodology 1
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Technical snow-reliability –Methodology 1
Ablation– Average diurnal temperature– Degree-day-model (degree day factor 2 mm/3 mm)
Snow making capacity– Number of days per month < 0°C/-2°C– 5 days = 20 cm cover of groomed artificial snow
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
180017001600150014001300120011001000900800700
180017001600150014001300120011001000900800700
November Dezember Jänner Februar März
Heute 2KNov ab 1400-1700 (ab 1800)Dez Tal (Tal)/ab 1300-Jan Tal Tal/ab 1000-13Feb Tal Tal/ab 1000-12Mar ab1100-1200 ab 1400-1600
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Vulnerability and adaptation of winter tourism in Tyrol and Bavaria Robert Steiger – Institute for Geography, Innsbruck
Wengen Workshop 2006 04.10.2006
Climatic trends – Accumulated fresh snow