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Vulnerability and adaption of agricultural
sector to climate change, NAPA+
Dr. Sumaya Ahmed Zakieldeen, Institute of Environmental Studies, U of K
& Sudanese Environment Conservation [email protected]
2/2/2010
Ministry of Agriculture Khartoum State
From the 4th assessment report (IPCC)
Based on observations and projections, IPCC AR4 concluded that climate change is occurring now.
Past emissions are estimated to involve some unavoidable warming even if atmospheric GHG concentrations remain at 2000 levels.
There are some impacts for which adaptation is the only available and appropriate response
Con... • There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully
understood.
• For developing countries, availability of resources and building
adaptive capacity are particularly important
• Adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the
projected effects of climate change, and especially not over
the long run as most impacts increase in magnitude
The scientific basis (IPCC AR4)
Climate Change and Africa: Projected Impacts on agriculture
Decrease in length of growing season, and areas suitable
for rain-fed agriculture.
Variable impacts on livestock
Reductions in fish population with increased
temperature.
The scientific basis (IPCC AR4)
Sudan is particularly concerned with impacts of climate change:
– the majority of its land is quite sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation.
– weak infrastructure– food security is mainly determined by rainfall– more than 70% of Sudan population is directly
dependant on climate-sensitive resources for their livelihoods
Vulnerability Assessment from the First National communication (Projected Impacts next 30 – 60 years)
• Agriculture and forestry:
– Shift in the agro ecological zones southward
– Shrinking in current crop production areas.
– Crop yield decline in selected stations by 29% - 71% for Sorghum (more affected than millet) and 15% - 62% for Millet
– Gum Arabic yields predicted to decline between 25% and 30% region-wide.
Water sector
– Greater water deficit is expected in years 2030
and 2060, due to a decline in projected rainfall
and an increase in the PETs from temperature
rise.
SUDAN NORMAL RAINFALL IN MM FOR THE PERIOD 1941-1970 COMPARED TO 1971-2000
ABH
ABN
AQQ
ARB
ARM
ATB
BAR
BNS
DMZ
DNG
DUM
NSR
FSH
GDF
GEN
HAL
HAS
HDB
HLG
JUB
KDG
KHA
KHW
KRM
KSL
KST
KUR
MLK
NHD
NYL
OBD
PSD
RAG
RNKRSH
SNR
SHW
SHM
SHN
TKR
TOR
UMB
WAU
WHF
WMD
NAG
PIB
MAR YEI
YAM
KAP
22.00 24.00 26.00 28.00 30.00 32.00 34.00 36.00 38.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
22.00
500 mm
200 mm
Meteorological Authority 2008
SUDAN RAINFALL COEFFICIENT OF VARIABILITY IN PERCENTAGE FOR THE PERIOD (1971-2000)
ABH
ABN
AQQ
ARB
ARM
ATB
BAR
BNS
DMZ
DNG
DUM
NSR
FSHGDF
GEN
HAL
HAS
HDB
HLG
JUB
KDG
KHA
KHW
KRM
KSL
KST
KUR
MLK
NHD
NYL
OBD
PSD
RAG
RNKRSH
SNR
SHW
SHM
SHN
TKR
TOR
UMB
WAU
WHF
WMD
NAG
MAR
PIB
8.00YAM
KAP
22.00 24.00 26.00 28.00 30.00 32.00 34.00 36.00 38.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
22.00
Source: NAPA 2007
• Partners: HCENR, UNDP, MIC, governments of Central Equatoria,
River Nile, Gedarif, South Darfour and North Kordofan states
• Goal: identify urgent and immediate activities to address climate
variability and climate change within the context of the country’s
economic development priorities.
• Focused on three sectors
• planning, awareness, capacity building, identification of adaptation
activities for implementation through LDCF.
National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)
THE FIVE ECOLOGICAL ZONES SELECTED FOR THE SUDANESE NAPA
Least Developed Countries (LDCs)
Event Occurrence Vulnerable areas Sectors
Drought Frequent North & Western Sudan (North Kordofan and Darfur), Kassala State and some parts of the rain-fed areas in central Sudan.
Agriculture, livestock,water resources and health.
Floods Frequent Areas within the River Nile basinand low areas from extreme South to far North. Mountain areas along RedSea.
Agriculture, livestock,Water resources andhealth.
Heat waves Rare Northern, central parts of Sudanbesides the Red Sea State.
Health, agriculture &livestock
Source: NAPA 2007
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Average …
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
MilletDurrahG/N
average production kg/feddan
Source: Ministry of Agriculture Nyala
RF
• Represent urgent and immediate needs of the most vulnerable groups
• Prepared through a participatory and consultative approach (government, research, universities, civil society, local and tradition leaders etc.)
• Aimed at improving the adaptive capacity of the communities affected by climate change
• Aimed at removing barriers to development caused by the impacts of climate change
NAPA projects and activities
• Severe poverty levels• Lack of income diversity• Lack of agricultural inputs• Mismanagement of resources • Over-cultivation of land• Fragile land or water resources• Poor soil fertility• Deforestation • Conflict over natural resources • Poor extension services• Displacement of communities • Poor sanitation or health services
Key non-climatic factors contributing to the vulnerability of rural communities in Sudan
– Programmes or projects (Pilot for the zones) addressing the urgent and immediate adaptation needs
– Recommendations for improving current policies to be more comprehensive and relevant to climate change
– Recommendations for improving the effectiveness of the institutional framework to integrate and implement the strategy
The components of the NAPA :
The highly ranked adaptation projects in in based on region-specific evaluation criteria
Ecological Zone Adaptation option
Desert Zone (River Nile State)
Improving sustainable agricultural practices under increasing heat-stress in the River Nile State
Semi desert Zone (North Kordofan State)
Environmental conservation and biodiversity restoration in northern Kordofan State as a coping mechanism for rangeland protection under conditions of increasing climate variability
Savannah on clayey soil (Gedarief State)
Enhancing resilience to rainfall variability through rangeland rehabilitation and water harvesting in the Butana area of Gedarif State
Savannah on sandy soil (South Darfour State)
Reducing the vulnerability of communities in drought-prone areas of southern Darfur State through improved water harvesting practices
Southern Sudan (Central Equatorial State)
Strategies to adapt to drought-induced water shortages in highly vulnerable areas in Central Equatorial State
Activities Highly in demand
• Developing a drought early warning system through the installation of rain measurement and other meteorological measurement equipment and technologies;
• Designing and constructing water harvesting systems• Extension, training and building awareness (pastoralists,
farmers, local people) • Combat desertification by a-forestation, fruit tree planting
and agro forestry• Establishment of rocky barriers to reduce wind speed and
intensification of trees planting in villages and towns and along irrigation channels
• Sand dunes fixation through planting of shelter belts and wind breaks
Con...• Rehabilitation of Gum Arabic belt• Rehabilitation of rangeland and provision of
satisfactory veterinary services• Introduction of heat and drought resistant Crop
varieties• diversification of grown crops in each season to
reduce risk of mono-cropping• enhancement of biodiversity • Introduction of renewable energy sources• Provision of revolving fund• Poverty reduction
Indigenous knowledge for coping with climate change
• Introduction of drought resistant plants by the local experience (Araak trees in El Gadaref, found suitable for agro-forestry)
• Introduction of some traditional ways of water harvest by local communities (e.g. tarras)
• Use local knowledge of the stars as EWS• Cultivation of high land or low lands based on rainy season
expectation • Development early maturing varieties• Early seeding (locally known as Tarmeel i.e. seeding in dry
sand)• etc.
Policies
• Lack of policies and strategies that guarantee food security (for both human and animals)
• Policies and strategies are not pursuing the ideal environmental utilization of natural resources
• Strategies are not targeting the increase of production
• Gaps in laws and legislations that regulate work
Institutions
• Lack of spatial cooperation and coordination at different levels despite the intersection between the different related sectors;
• Lack of stability of institutions, particularly in the water resource management sector;
• Lack of expertise related to water resource management
• Absence of an environmental protection unit at water institutions
• Lack/absence of sustained institutional capacity strengthening;
Identified successful adaptation options
Clearly stated that certain SL/EM measures could increase the
resilience of communities to climate related shocks
Showed that Adaptive capacity can improve where people have
better access to resources, market, technology, information,
social service, high level of awareness, skills, security , strong
institutions and effective organizations
AIACC (Assessment of Impact and Adaptation to Climate Change)
Locations AIACC Project
0
20
40
60
80
100
rehabilitated land
carrying capacityforage production
Before After
Productivity of natural capital before and after intervention of range land rehabilitation project
Adaptation and development
To address climate change effectively and achieve sustainable development, there is need to do development differently.
This requires not only doing development better, but also adapting development policies to take climate change into account.
As a country we need to make sure that in our activities we incorporate climate change risks and opportunities into national strategies and plans
Protection of existing development projects and programs and their beneficiaries from the impact of climate variability and change
Additional cost
Agriculture
Thank you