00000000 1
Sceptre House7-9 Castle StreetLuton, LU1 3AJwww.capv.com
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W European OEM & Aftermarket Toner & Inkjet Cartridge Market 2004-2009
Catherine CresswellCSCS –Europe
00000000 2Copyright© InfoTrends
European Cartridge Market -Agenda
• All in-one toner cartridges• OEM and Aftermarket • Inkjet cartridges• OEM and aftermarket• Conclusion
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Sceptre House7-9 Castle StreetLuton, LU1 3AJwww.capv.com
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All-in-One Toner Cartridges
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W European Mono Laser Installed Base started to decline in 2005
Mono Laser Printer and Printer MFPs 2004-2009
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
MFP 40-79 ppm WKGP2MonoMFP 25-39 ppm WKGP1MonoMFP 13-24 ppm WKGP1MonoMFP 7-12 ppm Pers. Mono
MFP 0-6 ppm Pers. Mono
SF 40-79 ppm WKGP2MonoSF 25-39 ppm WKGP1MonoSF 13-24 ppm WKGP1MonoSF 7-12 ppm Pers. Mono
SF 0-6 ppm Pers. Mono
CAGR -2.6%
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W European Print Volume Images remain fairly flat but are starting to decline
Mono Laser Printer & Printer MFPs 2004-2009
0
50100
150200
250300
350400
450
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
MFP 40-79 ppm
MFP 25-39 ppm
MFP 13-24 ppm
MFP 7-12 ppm
MFP 0-6 ppm
SF 40-79 ppm
SF 25-39 ppm
SF 13-24 ppm
SF 7-12 ppm
SF 0-6 ppm
Billions of Images
CAGR -0.2%
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W European Installed Base for Printers with AIO Cartridges Shifting to Fewer but Bigger Devices 2004-2009 K Units
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
25+ ppm13-24 ppm7-12 ppm0-6 ppm
CAGR -3.1%
Preliminary data
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W European All-in-One Toner Cartridges shift to higher yield unitsUnits Millions 2004-2009
05
101520253035404550
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
25+ ppm13-24 ppm7-12 ppm0-6 ppm
CAGR -3.2%
Preliminary data
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W European AIO Toner Cartridge Revenue still Increasing € Millions 2004-2009
0500
100015002000250030003500400045005000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
25+ ppm13-24 ppm7-12 ppm0-6 ppm
CAGR 2%
Preliminary data
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W European All-in-One Cartridges – by Engine 7-12 PPM2004-2009 Millions of Units
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Others (7-12) Existing
Others (7-12) Future
LJ1010 SPS (10 ppm)
LBP 22X
LBP 32X (7-12 ppm)
Optra M410
Samsung ML1210 (Lex E210)
Lexmark Optra S (1250)
Lexmark 4039 (7-12 ppm)
Lexmark 4019 (7-12 ppm)
Lexmark Optra (7-12 ppm)
LBP VX (8 ppm) / LJ6P
LBP BX
LBP EX (12 ppm)
LBP EX (8 ppm)
1200 SPS (7-12 ppm)
LBP SX
Preliminary data
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W European All-in-One Cartridges – by Engine 13-24 PPM2004-2009 Millions of Units
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Others (13-24) ExistingOther (13-24) FutureLBP 32X (13-24 ppm)Xerox N17 / N24LJ2300 SPSLJ1300 SPSLJ1160 / 1320LJ1150 SPSLJ1010 (14 ppm)1200 SPS (13-24 ppm)LBP 62XLBP 52XLBP 52X SPSLexmark E320/322Lexmark T420Lexmark E321/ E323Lexmark T520 / T522Lexmark Optra T (13-24)Lexmark Optra SLexmark Optra (13-24 ppm)Lexmark 4039 (13-24 ppm)Fuji Xerox XP 15 / 20LBP WXLBP BX IILBP NX
Preliminary data
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W European All-in-One Cartridges – by Engine 25+ PPM 2004-2009 Millions of Units
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Other Existing 25+ ppm
Other Future 25+ ppm
Fuji Xerox 45ppm / LexmarkW820 / Xerox 4525
Lexmark Optra T630
Lexmark Optra T620 / T622
4300 SPS
4200 SPS
9000 SPS
Lexmark Optra T616
Lexmark Optra Se 3455
Fuji Xerox 24 / 32 / 40
LBP 72X
Preliminary data
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Trends in All-in-one-Toner Cartridges-
• Cartridges get bigger but volumes decline– 25ppm plus now the key part of the market– Revenue still growing
• Lifecycles on current machines may increase again– Due to less development of mono market
• Use of smart chips now the norm
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OEM Cartridges
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W European OEM Cartridge Market by Segment in Units Millions 2004 – 2009
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
25+ ppm13-24 ppm7-12 ppm0-6 ppm
CAGR -5%
Preliminary data
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W European OEM Cartridge Market by Segment Value € Millions 2004-2009
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
25+ ppm13-24 ppm7-12 ppm0-6 ppm
Preliminary data
CAGR 0.8%
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Trends in OEM Toner Cartridge Market
• Mono focus moves to 25ppm+ • But still a lot of volume in 13-24ppm
– Reduction in hardware pricing does flood market at lower end
• 2004-5 good growth in cartridge sales – But this peaks and expect decline– Moving to bigger cartridges– And move to colour placements
• 2005 saw vendors start to focus on colour– This will start to replace mono market– Expect slow down in replacement models for mono
• Multifunctionality also increasing but remains small
• Continued use of smart chips
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Sceptre House7-9 Castle StreetLuton, LU1 3AJwww.capv.com
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European Toner Cartridge Aftermarket
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W European Aftermarket by Speed Segment Volume Millions of Units 2004-2009
0123456789
10
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
25+ ppm13-24 ppm7-12 ppm0-6 ppm
Preliminary data
CAGR 0.6%
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W European Aftermarket by Speed Segment € Millions 2004 - 2009
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
26-40 ppm13-25 ppm7-12 ppm0-6 ppm
Preliminary data
CAGR 2.8%
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Aftermarket Cartridge Units by Engine
0123456789
10
2004 2009
LBP 32X LBP 22X HP1010/1020 LBP 52XSPS1200SPS LJ1160 / 1320 LJ1300 SPS LJ4200LBP 72X Lex T630 All Others
Units (m)
HP1200
22X
32X
HP4200
HP1160/1320
HP1010/1020
HP4200
All othersAll others
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Resulting All-in-One Toner Cartridge Aftermarket Share Units (m) 2004 –2009
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2004 2009
AftermarketOEM21% 25%
Preliminary data
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AIO Cartridge Market Share 2004 Aftermarket vs OEM Original (units m)
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.00
France
German
y
Italy
Netherl
ands
Spain
Sweden UK
AM CartsOEM Carts
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Cartridge Remanufacturers
Germany/SwitzerlandFarbax
UK/HongKong
France
UK
France
Ire/Portugal- US owned
Germany
UK/Romania
France
Germany
Germany/NLs
Germany/Switzerland
Netherlands
Country
GCC- compatibles- Q Imaging brandMBPGreenman TonersPolypore
Dataproducts (Clover)KMPAFICArmorK&U PrintwareTurbon Group (Kores,Tonerfill)Pelikan
XPS- sells mainly on contract to other recyclers
Largest Volume Players
00000000 24Copyright© InfoTrends
Trends in European Toner CartridgeAftermarket
• 2004-5 sees aftermarket share drop to 21% – some major players in difficulty
• OEM price reductions in 2004 had major affect• Trend to own brand from major distributors
– Limiting the stocking of other 3rd party brands• Cost of Remanufacturing becomes an issue
– Production relocating into C& E Europe– Chips are now widely available but add a cost and
complexity and increase the time that it takes to develop new cartridges
• Concern about the rapid move to colour in the market– Some players move forward on colour– Chemical toners – a barrier for some but not others
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European Colour Toner Cartridge Market
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Units (k)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
17+ppm WKGP3 Color
9-16 ppm WKGP2Color 5-8 ppm WKGP1 Color
0-4 ppm WKGP1 Color
W Europe Workgroup Colour Printer Installed Base 2004-2009
CAGR 21%
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W European Workgroup Colour Laser Installed Base Share Estimates
HP41%
Xerox10%
Lexmark5%
Minolta QMS14%
Other6%
Brother3%Oki
10%
Epson11%
2004
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HP dominates colour printer but others are growing rapidly
C752, C912 17-23ppm
Phaser 8400 solid ink Phaser 6100, 6250
HL2700C- SF 5-8ppmHL4000C, HL 4200C
C5000 series, C3100, C9000 & C7000 series
C900, C1900, C1100, C2600, C4000
MGC 2400 series,5400 series, MGC 3300
CLJ2550, CLJ3000 series, CLJ4650 series
Main models
Oki
Lexmark
Xerox
Brother
EpsonMinoltaHP
Vendor
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W European Total Colour Cartridge Estimates 2004 and 2009
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Cartridges
CAGR 35%
Preliminary Data
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W European HP Colour LaserjetInstalled Base estimates by model
0200400600800
1000120014001600
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
CLJ4500 CLJ8500 CLJ 2500CLJ 2550 CLJ1500 CLJ2820/40CLJ2600 CLJ4600 CLJ3500CLJ3700 CLJ3550 CLJ5500/CLJ5550CLJ9500 CLJ4650 CLJ 9850other future total
K Units
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W European HP Colour LaserjetCartridge Estimates K Units
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
BlackColour
CAGR 28%
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Trends in Colour Cartridge Market
• Competition among mono laser vendors to replace installed base with low cost colour lasers– Affordable colour laser/LED printers and printer MFPs– Colour laser to compete with inkjet in the office– Colour laser devices and MF versions also compete with
copier UCPs• Cartridge sales on colour devices forecast to grow
at around 35%– But a lot of output will be in black
• Aftermarket share of HP colour LAserjet business estimated at 8% in 2004 with growth to 11% by 2009– Aftermarket share of total market is around 4% with growth
to 6% by 2009
00000000 33
Sceptre House7-9 Castle StreetLuton, LU1 3AJwww.capv.com
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European Inkjet Cartridge Market
00000000 34Copyright© InfoTrends
W European Inkjet Printer and Fax Installed Base K Units 2003 –2008
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
SF PrinterMF PrinterSF FaxMF Fax
Inkjet Ptr = 3.2%Inkjet Fax = -6%
00000000 35Copyright© InfoTrends
Inkjet Installed Base – Photo Printer Segmentation 2004-2009 K Units
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Snapshot Inkjet
Photo-centricInkjetPhoto-enabledInkjet
Does not include dye sub photo printers
Inkjet is increasingly driven by photo capability with increasing share of snapshot devices
CAGR 04-093.2%
00000000 36Copyright© InfoTrends
W European Inkjet Printer Installed Base Share Estimatesby engine
HP41%
Lexmark14%
Epson22%
Other6%
Canon17%
2004
86.9 m inkjet printer units
00000000 37Copyright© InfoTrends
Inkjet Technology Trends
• Inkjet printers continue to grow at 3-4% but growth is slowing in W Europe– Threatened in office by colour laser and solid ink– Devices shift from SF Print to Multifunction
• But vendors still investing in the technology– HP- Scaleable Print Technology (Office oriented)– Canon PIXMA- Fine Technology- Focus on photo
printing– Epson –UltraChrome K3 System- pigment Ink-
professional market
00000000 38Copyright© InfoTrends
Inkjet Technology Trends(2)
• Photo printers drive growth– 29% printers are photocentric* in 2004– Expect 39% photocentric* 2009
• Some developments in high end inkjet may bring low cost high speed into office in longer term– Unlikely to compete on desktop print quality
however
*photocentric incls snapshot
00000000 39Copyright© InfoTrends
W European Inkjet Printer and Fax Cartridges
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
MF PrinterSF PrinterMF FaxSF Fax
Units (m) CAGR3.2%
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W European Inkjet Printer and Fax Cartridges Revenue € millions
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
MF PrinterSF PrinterMF FaxSF Fax
CAGR3.0%
00000000 41Copyright© InfoTrends
W Europe Black vs Colour Inkjet Cartridge Units (Units millions)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2004 2009
BlackColour
Includes fax and printer cartridges
CAGRBLK: 2.3%COL: 4.3%
00000000 42Copyright© InfoTrends
W Europe Black vs Colour Inkjet Cartridge Revenue(€ millions)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2004 2009
BlackColour
Includes fax and printer cartridges
CAGRBLK: 1.7%COL: 4.1%
00000000 43Copyright© InfoTrends
W Europe Inkjet Cartridge Market Integrated vs Ink Tanks% Share
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
TanksIntegrated
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W Europe Inkjet Cartridge Market Integrated vs Ink Tanks(Units Millions)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
IntegratedTanks
64% 55%
00000000 45Copyright© InfoTrends
European Inkjet Cartridge Trends• More pressure on pricing for inkjet cartridges
– Users printing photos at home• But only small volumes
– For larger volumes increasingly use retail digital photo processing or the Web
• Expect inkjet supplies marketing to become even more focal– EG Cost per cartridge- or cost per print
• Inkjet printing packs launched – Ink and paper for a specific number of cartridges – easier to
compare costs– HP and Epson
• Growth of snapshot sized printers– Inkjet cartridges likely to be smaller
• Tanks v Integrated– Canon and HP shift emphasis
00000000 46
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Inkjet Aftermarket
00000000 47Copyright© InfoTrends
OEM vs Aftermarket Inkjet Cartridge UnitsMillions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
OEMAftermarket
Printer Only
52 m
67 m
15.9%17.2%
00000000 48Copyright© InfoTrends
W Europe Inkjet Aftermarket % ShareUnits & Revenue
02468
101214161820
2004 2009
Units
Revenue%
00000000 49Copyright© InfoTrends
Aftermarket Units by Cartridge Brand They Are Used InMillions of Units
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2004 2009
HPCanonLexmarkEpsonOther
00000000 50Copyright© InfoTrends
W Europe: Estimated Share of Aftermarket of Integrated and of Ink TanksMillions of Units
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2004 2009
IntegratedTanks
51% 44%
00000000 51Copyright© InfoTrends
Major Aftermarket Inkjet Players W Europe
• Armor France• Pelikan Germany/Switz• DCI JetTec UK• Turbon Group Germany• EBP UK• JR Inkjet UK• KMP Germany• MBP France• AFIC UK• AlphaJet UK
Monthly volume range from 2 million cartridges per month to 20k /month
00000000 52Copyright© InfoTrends
Inkjet Aftermarket Country Penetration is at Different Stages
0102030405060708090
% AM Share 14.5% 17.5% 15.5% 14.5% 12% 11% 17.5%Aftermarket 0.83 15.02 0.44 6.87 3.69 3.38 11.12
OEM 70.82 2.39 40.53 27.08 27.39 52.42
Denmark Germany Finland France Italy Spain UK
W. Europe average Aftermarket unit share is 15.9 % - 2004
4.92
M units
00000000 53Copyright© InfoTrends
Inkjet Aftermarket Trends
• Growth of inkjet refilling shops across Europe– Cartridge World is the biggest chain– But other smaller chains and individual shops opening up– Success due to price differentials for cartridges– But use environment also as selling point
• As photo applications grow so need for high quality colour solutions is required – But still a challenge for some players
• Little activity from EU on cartridge pricing• HP has included collection bags for the popular
models HP 56,57, 337, 338, 343, 344, 342, 339
00000000 54Copyright© InfoTrends
Challenges for the Inkjet Aftermarket
• Biggest challenges threatening future growth:– Continued use of smart chips
• Adds cost and complexity to remanufacturing process– Adhering to patents – for product and packaging– Legal pressure / OEM lobbying– Environmental legislation such as the WEEE law– Tough Competition in empty cartridge market– Channel Own Brand
• Which means that the aftermarket is forced to supply more cartridges for private label
• Dilutes their own brand strength– OEM price reductions
00000000 55Copyright© InfoTrends
Future of the Cartridge Market in Europe
• Transition to colour has now started– Chemical toners– More complex cartridges
• OEMs challenge is to get users to output in colour– And to keep colour supplies revenues
• Aftermarket challenge is to find good source of supply– Toners and part– And/or finished cartridges– Small players will suffer
00000000 56
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Thank You……Any Questions?