WA State Export Data & TrendsWA State Export Data & Trends

Andrew J. Cassey

School of Economic SciencesWashington State University

March 2011

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Andrew J. Cassey

Ph.D. 2008 University of Minnesota• Dissertation: State Export Behavior and Policy• Advisors: Sam Kortum and Tom Holmes

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Andrew J. Cassey

Ph.D. 2008 University of Minnesota• Dissertation: State Export Behavior and Policy• Advisors: Sam Kortum and Tom Holmes

Primary research interest in regional development through exportation• Informational barriers to trade, costs to begin to export• Export promotion policy

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Andrew J. Cassey

Ph.D. 2008 University of Minnesota• Dissertation: State Export Behavior and Policy• Advisors: Sam Kortum and Tom Holmes

Primary research interest in regional development through exportation• Informational barriers to trade, costs to begin to export• Export promotion policy

Contact information• cassey@wsu.edu• 509-335-8334• extecon.wsu.edu/pages/Regional_Economics• PO Box 646210, Hulbert Hall 101, Pullman, WA 99164

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Outline of Webinar

State export data• How state export data is collected• How to interpret state export data• WSU Extension publication (FS006E) “The Collection and

Description of Washington State Export Data” Trends in Washington exports• Data and Graphs• WSU Extension publication “Export Trends in Washington

State, Vol. 3” in press. More information & Partners

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Export Assistance Program

Create a culture of exporting• Support and extend outreach efforts to agricultural

exporters• Conduct research to benefit new-to-export

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Export Assistance Program

Create a culture of exporting• Support and extend outreach efforts to agricultural

exporters• Conduct research to benefit new-to-export

Joint with IMPACT Center, SBDC, WSDA• A Primer on Exchange Rates & Exporting• Interviews with current successful Agricultural exports• Interviews with commodity associations• Re-vamp of WA Ag Suppliers database

• Yunfei Zhao: Outreach• Andrew Cassey: Research

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

State Export Data: Census Bureau & Customs

Nominal• Data has not been adjusted for inflation• Cannot compare across years without modification• Best to use Producer Price Index for WA or Seattle-

Bremerton-Tacoma (all-commodities, less fuel)

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

State Export Data: Census Bureau & Customs

Nominal• Data has not been adjusted for inflation• Cannot compare across years without modification• Best to use Producer Price Index for WA or Seattle-

Bremerton-Tacoma (all-commodities, less fuel) Reported either by product (HS) or by industry

(NAICS)• Cannot get to low levels of disaggregation• 6 of 10 digit HS, 3 or 4 of 6 digit NAICS

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

State Export Data: Census Bureau & Customs

Nominal• Data has not been adjusted for inflation• Cannot compare across years without modification• Best to use Producer Price Index for WA or Seattle-

Bremerton-Tacoma (all-commodities, less fuel) Reported either by product (HS) or by industry

(NAICS)• Cannot get to low levels of disaggregation• 6 of 10 digit HS, 3 or 4 of 6 digit NAICS

Services, low-value not counted• Only records objects passing through customs• Only records shipments of greater than $2500

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

State Export Data: Origin of Movement

Origin of Movement• Sales value at port of exit (not value-added)• Includes inland transportation cost• Does NOT include trans costs beyond U.S. ports• State where shipment begins international journey

State of consolidation of shipmentsState of final processing

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

State Export Data: Origin of Movement

Origin of Movement• Sales value at port of exit (not value-added)• Includes inland transportation cost• Does NOT include trans costs beyond U.S. ports• State where shipment begins international journey

State of consolidation of shipmentsState of final processing

Consolidation “problems” biggest for unprocessed mining & agricultural exports Personal Preference: NAICS industries, not product codes

Not easy (possible) to derive employment or value-added due to exports

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

State Export Data: Data Collection

Shipper’s Export Declaration & AES• Customs• Census Bureau

WISER: World Institute for Strategic Economic Research

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Export Trends in Washington

Inflation-adjusted time series data (Base year 1982-1984)

Specific industries Emphasize exports in the context of overall sales

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Export Trends in Washington

Inflation-adjusted time series data (Base year 1982-1984)

Specific industries Emphasize exports in the context of overall sales Useful for:• Assessing industry export prospects• Gauging Washington economic health

WA largest exporter in terms of export share of shipments

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Export Trends to World by Industry

Aerospace increase by 20%: rebound from strike Overall increase by 2% WA exports driven by Aerospace

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Export Trends to World by Industry

Decrease in other large export industries Should not measure state success with total export

data

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Exports as Percent of Shipments by Industry

Exports more important for WA than U.S. Exports increasingly important for Nav. Instruments

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Number of Countries Importing by Industry

General increase in destinations Decrease in destinations in 2009

Decrease in exports from less countries or less sales?

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Processed Ag Exports by Industry

All decrease in 2009 except oilseed (is this from WA?) Trend winners: fruit & oilseed

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Exports as Percent of Shipments by Industry

WA industries match national average until 2007 Decrease in domestic shipments: diversification Exports increasingly important for Dairy

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Number of Countries Importing Ag by Industry

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Summary

2009 exports up 2% over 2008 Increase due to aerospace and not overall Most other export industries shrank in 2009 Grain and oilseed milling is hot export industry

Followed by fruit & vegetable preserves

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Summary

2009 exports up 2% over 2008 Increase due to aerospace and not overall Most other export industries shrank in 2009 Grain and oilseed milling is hot export industry

Followed by fruit & vegetable preserves Exports important for diversification of sales Important to monitor % of sales and # of countries

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

More Information

Trade Stats Express:Limited free export data, by industry and country

Department of Commerce Int’l Business:General info, Quarterly Trade Bulletin, destination focus

Commerce Quarterly Trade Bulletin Small Business Development Center:

Extensive network International Trade Alliance Spokane:

New-to-export training sessions Trade Development Alliance Seattle:

Trade missions

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Appendix

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Percent Change in Exports by Industry

Andrew J. Cassey Trends in Washington State Exports

Percent Change in Ag Exports by Industry