ICCCFS, 2011

Adapting to the impacts of extreme weather events on grassland and husbandry

Xuebiao Pan, Jing Wang

China Agricultural University

Dec 8, 2011, BeijingDec 8, 2011, Beijing

Outline

♣ Grassland and husbandry in China

♣ Past and future climate change trend♣ Past and future climate change trend

♣ Change trend of extreme weather eventsg

♣ Impact of climate change and extreme weather eventson grassland and husbandry

♣ Adaptation of grassland and husbandry to climate♣ Adaptation of grassland and husbandry to climatechange and extreme weather events

1. Grassland and husbandry in yChina

3

Grassland and husbandry in ChinaGrassland and husbandry in China

草地占国土面积百分比

Grassland area ratio(%)N

Its total area amounts toabout 400 million hectares,accounting for 41% of total

EW

S

accounting for 41% of totalland area in China.

Grassland area of sixprovinces and autonomouspregions in western China,reaches 270 million hectares,accounting for 70% of total

County93.shp00.1 - 1%1 - 5%5 - 10%10 - 20%20 40%

Chinab.shpgrassland area in China.Grassland area in North

China (Inner Mongolia,

County93.shp

20 - 40%40 - 60%60 - 80%>80%

Xinxiang, Qinghai) accountsfor 45% of total grasslandarea in China.

4

Main grassland type in ChinaMain grassland type in ChinaGrassland Type Grassland area

(million ha)(million ha)

Alpine Meadow 64Temperate Steppe 47Lowland Meadow 35Alpine Steppe 30Mountain Meadow 22Temperate Desert 20pTropical Tussock 19Temperate Meadow Steppe 18Tropical Shrub Tussock 17Temperate Desert Steppe 16p ppWarm Temperate Shrub Tussock

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Warm Temperate Tussock 11Temperate 7Temperate 7Alpine Desert Steppe 6Alpine Meadow Steppe 5Alpine Desert 5Swamp 2

5

Swamp 2Dry Tropical Shrub Tussock with Savanna

1

Grassland and husbandry in North China

Grassland and husbandry occupies key position inNorth ChinaNorth China.

0 231 2 916 9 + 90683300

y = 0.231x2 - 916.9x + 90683R² = 0.983

200

250

10kt

150

200

at o

utpu

t /

Inner Mongolia

y = 0.757x - 1492.R² = 0.96850

100

Mea

Qinghai

01975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

year

Q g

6

year

Meat output (10kt) in China in 2007

Total Pork Beef Mutton Ratio of pork Ratio of beef and mutton Ratio of mutton Total Pork Beef Mutton to total to total to total

QH 31.4 7.6 14.5 8.7 0.242 0.739 0.277

XJ 125.7 17.5 31.4 60.5 0.139 0.731 0.481

IM 205.0 60.3 39.4 80.8 0.294 0.586 0.394

NX 22.8 8.3 6.5 5.7 0.364 0.535 0.250

GS 76.9 41.8 14.5 14.6 0.544 0.378 0.190

HB 396.2 225.5 57.7 24.3 0.569 0.207 0.061

42 9 339 82 1 2 3 0 624 0 198 0 04HN 542.9 339 82.1 25.3 0.624 0.198 0.047

SD 618.7 300.1 69.2 33 0.485 0.165 0.053

BJ 47.9 22.4 2.8 1.9 0.468 0.098 0.040

SCH 564.2 408.5 28.6 23.8 0.724 0.093 0.042

GZH 150.6 125.6 9.5 2.8 0.834 0.082 0.019

GX 329 0 206 2 11 7 2 7 0 627 0 044 0 008

7

GX 329.0 206.2 11.7 2.7 0.627 0.044 0.008

Grassland and husbandry in North ChinaGrassland and husbandry in North China

In 2007, beef and mutton productivity of Inner Mongolia,Xinjiang and Qinhai reached 2.35 million tons, accountingfor 65% of regional total meat productivity. It was muchlarger than national averaged ratio of 14.5% .Grassland and husbandry in North China is veryGrassland and husbandry in North China is veryimportant to the supply of beef and mutton for thedemands of people in China.

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2. Past and future climate change trend

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Change trend of annual maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall from 1961 to 2010 in Innertemperature and rainfall from 1961 to 2010 in Inner

Mongolia

Maximum temperatureincreased significantly at arate of 0.19 to 0.43

Minimum temperatureincreased significantly at arate of 0.13 to 1.03 °C/10y,

Rainfall increased inwestern Inner Mongoliaand decreased in eastern

°C/10y, especially innortheastern InnerMongolia.

y,especially in the centralInner Mongolia.

Inner Mongolia, but notsignificant at 90% level.

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Change trend of annual maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall under 2041 to 2070 compared with p p

baseline in Inner Mongolia

Maximum temperatureincreased by 0 °C to 4 °Cin most areas of Inner

Minimum temperatureincreased by 0 °C to 5 °Cin most areas of Inner

Rainfall increased by 60mm to 120 mm in easternInner Mongolia andos e s o e

Mongolia compared withbaseline climate.

Mongolia compared withbaseline climate.

gdecreased by 0 to 60 mm inwestern Inner Mongoliacompared with baseline

11climate.

3. Change trend of extreme th tweather events

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Change trend of the high (>30 ℃) and low (<0 ℃) temperature days in Inner Mongoliatemperature days in Inner Mongolia

Hi h d h d i ifi iHigh temperature days showed a significant increasetrend, and low temperature days showed a significantdecrease trend especially in western Inner Mongolia

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decrease trend, especially in western Inner Mongolia.

Change trend of the snow days in Winter (Dec.-Feb.) in Inner Mongoliain Inner Mongolia

Th d i i h d i ifi iThe snow days in winter showed a significant increasetrend in most area of Inner Mongolia.

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4 I t f li t h d4. Impact of climate change and extreme weather events onextreme weather events on grassland and husbandry g y

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Correlation of the period of turning green date and temperature in spring (a); correlation of the period of flowering and precipitation

(b) of Wheatgrass at Xianghuang Qi

17 62 212 60

180

(b)250

y = -17.62x + 212.60

R2 = 0.52 P＜0.01150

期(d)

(b)

225

期(d)

120

冰草

返青

期

200

冰草

开花

期

(a)

60

90冰

y = 0.32x + 172.05

R2 = 0.39 P＜0.05

150

175冰2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

1995-2007年春季平均温度(℃)

0.0 40.0 80.0 120.0 160.0

1995-2007年7月降水量(mm)

S i T t Precipitation in July

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Spring Temperature Precipitation in July

Aboveground

300

Aboveground biomass (g/m2)

Xilinhot

Field Survey over 3years:

0

100

200 Xilinhot

Sonid Zuoqi

There is largerdifference betweenthe spatial andt l di t ib ti 0

2006年 2007年 2008年

Year

Darhan Muminggan qi

temporal distributionof grass biomass.

q

Aboveground boveg ou dbiomass

(g/m2)

Year/Site 2006 2007 2008 Ave Var CV

Xilinhot 189.1 82.7 210.4 160.7 68.42 0.43

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Sonid Zuoqi 14.7 66.4 54.1 45.0 26.99 0.60

Darhan Muminggan qi 85.4 87.9 181.6 118.3 54.82 0.46

Correlation of biomass production and annual precipitation p p pin typical sites in Inner Mongolia

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Main disasters in grassland and husbandryMain disasters in grassland and husbandry

HHeavy snow• Influencing the forage intake of cattle andhsheep

• Leading to death of cattle and sheep due tostarvation and cold.• Influencing the transportation of forage to• Influencing the transportation of forage topasturing area• Leading to spring flood due to snowmeltingmelting

From December 2009 to March 2010, there wasserious snowstorm happened in Altay city inXinjiang autonomous region. The affectedpopulation reached 580 thousand and theaffected animal reached 2273 thousand. Directeconomic losses caused by snowstorm reachedeconomic losses caused by snowstorm reachednearly 0.2 billion Yuan.

Main disasters in grassland livestockMain disasters in grassland-livestock

Drought• Decreasing grass biomass• Leading to death of cattle andsheep due to black disaster

Drought in 2009

Grassland in Siziwangqi, Inner

Mongolia

Grassland in HulunBeier , Inner

Mongolia

Grassland in Zaohe, Inner Mongolia

Drought disaster classification in pasture area

ClassificationWhole growth period

Turning green-

Tillering

Tillering -Heading

Heading-Flowering

Flowering-Maturing

Maturing-Wilting

Non-drought Wd<0.7 Wd<0.6 Wd<0.5 Wd<0.5 Wd<0.6 Wd<0.7

Light 0.7=<Wd<1.0 0.6=<Wd<0.9 0.5=<Wd<0.8 0.5=<Wd<0.8 0.6=<Wd<0.9 0.7=<Wd<1.0g

Medium 1.0=<Wd<1.3 0.9=<Wd<1.2 0.8=<Wd<1.1 0.8=<Wd<1.1 0.9=<Wd<1.2 1.0=<Wd<1.3

Heavy 1.3=<Wd<1.6 1.2=<Wd<1.5 1.1=<Wd<1.4 1.1=<Wd<1.4 1.2=<Wd<1.5 1.3=<Wd<1.6

Severe 1.6=<Wd 1.5=<Wd 1.4=<Wd 1.4=<Wd 1.5=<Wd 1.6=<Wd

Snow disaster classification in pasture area

Classification Snow indicator : snow depth(SDR), snow area Grass yield Livestock Classification p ( ),ratio(SAR), days of snow(SDAY)

yindicator (%) death (%)

Light SDR＜ 50% ，SAR＜ 50% ，SDAY 3-7 d. ＜ 25% ＜ 10%

Medium SDR 50-70% ，SAR 50-70% ，SDAY 8-14 d. 25-65% 10-20%

Heavy SDR 70-90% ，SAR 70-90% ，SDAY 15-21 d. 65 -100% 20-30%

Severe SDR＞ 90% SAR＞ 90% SDAY＞ 21 d ＞ 100% ＞ 30%Severe SDR＞ 90% ，SAR＞ 90% ，SDAY＞ 21 d. ＞ 100% ＞ 30%

5. Adaptation of grassland and5. Adaptation of grassland and husbandry to climate change and

extreme weather events

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(1) Implementation of grassland ecological construction project under the support of government.

• returning cropping land to forage land • Beijing-Tianjin Sand Storm Source

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(2) Moderate grazing based on the balance of livestockand grass to prevent grassland degradation.

• Rotational grazing and seasonal grazing• Fencing and delay grazing• Fencing and delay grazing• prohibiting grazing

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(3) Enhancing pastoral production capacity andimproving the ability of disaster prevention.• grass storing in winter• building shed to prevent snowstorm

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(4) Combination of faming and grazing to ensure thel f fsupply of forage.

• forage breedingg g• cereal-forage rotation

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(5) Adjusting the industrial structure , improving herdt t d i i th bilit f li t kstructure and improving the ability of livestock

groups adapting to climate change

• developing tourism andprocessing industryprocessing industry• animal breeding

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(6) Enhancing training and pastoral management under thedirection of government policies and improving thedirection of government policies and improving theawareness of farmers and herders to adapt to climate change

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Summary

• In the last 50 years, Significant climate change has been detected in InnerMongolia Future climate change scenarios show the maximum andMongolia. Future climate change scenarios show the maximum andminimum temperature would increase by 0 °C to 6 °C.

Cli t h d t th t h i ifi t i fl• Climate change and extreme weather events have significant influence ongrassland and husbandry. Climate warming and drying will lead to thedegradation of grassland ecosystem and the reduction of grass biomass.Extreme weather events would exert serious impact on grass biomass, thesupply of feeds and grazing capacity.

• Detailed studies on how grassland and husbandry respond to extremeweather events across climatic regions would provide useful insight for thede elopment of f t re adaptation strategiesdevelopment of future adaptation strategies.

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Acknowledgementsg• This work was supported by the Adapting to Climate Change

i Chi (ACCC) j t f d d b th UK D t t fin China (ACCC) project, funded by the UK Department forInternational Development (DFID), the Swiss Agency forDevelopment & Co-operation (SDC), and the UK Departmentf E d Cli t Ch (DECC)for Energy and Climate Change (DECC).

• We sincerely thank Prof Yinlong Xu (CAAS) for his helpful• We sincerely thank Prof. Yinlong Xu (CAAS) for his helpful comments on the project.

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Thank you for yourThank you for your attention ！

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