ICCRTS 2003

War Room Team Based Analysis

June 17, 2003Analysis in our Changing Times

Intelligence for its Own Sake is Stupidity• Many corporate and

government organizations collect lots of data, information, and intelligence. Often sits there and gets filed away.

• What good is intelligence unless it feeds core decision making activity.

• War Room captures key decisionmaking and/or analytical processes.

• Data, information, and intelligence are collected to feed into these core processes.

War Room Description

• Maximizing Flow and Control of Information is Key to Competitiveness - In War, Business, and in Political Campaigns.

• War Rooms are Innovative Tool To Manage InformationIn Time-Sensitive Environment.

• Optimized Infrastructure Which Channel Collection, Analysis, and Dissemination of Information.

Connecting the Dots

New disclosures that Bush was warned last summer of al-Qaeda'sinterest in hijacking commercial airliners will likely direct a brighter spotlight on the CIA's and FBI's failure to connect the dots of terrorists' plans.

5/17/02

“When the government collects monumental amounts of information, itmay not be able to find anything it needs,” Berman said. “The problem they had (before Sept. 11) wasn’t in finding information, it was in analyzing information, and if they have more information they’ll havemore analytic problems.”

6/07/02

War Room Typology

REGION ISSUES TARGETED MEDIANorth

CentralSouthwest

Welfare CrimeTaxes

WKUA-CBSWMALWKYSWABCWQUZ

A B

Advertising Media Strategy

1997; 2001

1. Xyz2.abc3. uyt

C ompet it o r cart arge t xx

Digital

REGION ISSUES TARGETED MEDIANorth

CentralSouthwest

Welfare CrimeTaxes

WKUA-CBSWMALWKYSWABCWQUZ

A B

Advertising Media Strategy

REGION ISSUES TARGETED MEDIANorth

CentralSouthwest

Welfare CrimeTaxes

WKUA-CBSWMALWKYSWABCWQUZ

A B

Advertising Media Strategy

REGION ISSUES TARGETED MEDIANorth

CentralSouthwest

Welfare CrimeTaxes

WKUA-CBSWMALWKYSWABCWQUZ

A B

Advertising Media Strategy

Analog

Virtual/Portal

Network Enabled War Rooms

Analog War Room• Low-tech approach utilizing foam boards or magnetic white boards to capture and map process logic flow and to lay out the data.• Conference table used to help stage information intended to go on the walls. Sufficient space must be provided to enable the manager or team members to

walk around room, explaining certain facets and gathering their input.

• Great value in making it portable, to quickly relocate briefing.

Digital War Room• Evolve from static graphical displays and manual data collection to interactive computer-driven displays, automated data collection systems, and shared knowledge bases.

•All aspects of the decision-making process can be simultaneously viewed; multiple tools can be seen at the same time.

Virtual/Portal War RoomStrategy visualizationis digitized into template with various decision support tools.

Strategy is provided to clientvia the portal. It is used as an implementation tool to monitor andtrack progress. Intelligence andsupportive information are providedduring critical decision junctures, as strategy is implemented. Thusproducing on-going revenue source.

Strategy is mapped out inPhysical war room facility

Periodic reviews are held with client in physicalwar room facility.

War Room Methodology

• Systematic top down analysis requirements drives tool selection

• Cognitive theories of situation understanding, decisionmaking, and collaboration inform tool selection and team processes

• ONR Collaboration Advisor Tool helps identify and fix teamwork issues

Philosophy for Team Based Analysis

Effective Collaboration Includes People, Tools, and Process:• Iterative process between analysis and engineering

People

ProcessTools

Analysis

Engineering

Philosophy on Systems IntegrationNot One Tool or Technology Solution to Analyst’s

Needs:• Complex processes or decisions require multiple tools to facilitate

information flow.• Requirements change and tools evolve, so modular off-the-shelf tools

are selected rather than specially developing tools.• Tool integrators rather than tool developers.

Technology Assessment

Process

Possible Tools

War Room Activities

PROCESS

CustomerRequirements

Examine LaboratoriesAbilities To

MeetRequirements

Search ForOther

Options ToProvide

Solutions & Fill Gaps

ExamineCompetitorSolutions

DetermineIf Technology

Will Be ADifferentiator

Get CritiqueBy InvestorCommunity

IdentifyRequirements

& Deve lop Filter for EnviroScan

Automated Search

Analysis/Visualization

Of TechnologyOptions

By PerformanceRequirements

SWOT &Benchmark

Analysis

PDANetmapDecide-Now

Retrievalware,Copernicus,Webforia

HUMINT/InterviewsBrainstorm

Inspiration

Visual Links

collect visualize sort

analyze

evaluate

War Room Process

5

Proprietary Databases/Market Studies• Infonetics• IDC• Gartner• The Yankee Group• Forrester• Frost & Sullivan Business Online Services•Edgar•Dialog•Factiva (Dow Jones)•HooversCI Telecom Portals• Current Analysis• Vigil

Data Sources(Examples)

Web Site Content• Aler t IPO• Find VPN• VPN Insider.com• VPNLabs

Input

Subject Mater Experts-• Interviews• Surveys CI Process/ToolsCollection (Intelligent Agents; Search Engines/Smart People)• Quigo•Copernic

Storage/Databases• OODBs, DOORs)• RDBMS (Oracle, MSSQL)

AnalysisLink/Visualization•VisualAnalytics - visualinks• i2 Analysts Process Analysis• Logical Decisions•Decision-Pro•iThink

Dissemination and Display• Office and Publishing•V visualization Tools

Market Characteristics •Segmentation•Key Players•Trends•Emerging Technologies•Market Penetration•Partners/Alliances•Competi tors

Output

Metrics

Analyst/User(s)

Input

Straw Man Information Flow

1. ArticulateGoals &

Objectives

5. Selectthe Best

Hardware& Displays

Technology Assessment

Process

Possible Tools

War Room Activities

PROCESS

CustomerRequirements

Examine LaboratoriesAbilities To

MeetRequirements

Search ForOther

Options ToProvide

Solutions & Fill Gaps

ExamineCompetitorSolutions

DetermineIf Technology

Will Be ADifferentiator

Get CritiqueBy InvestorCommunity

IdentifyRequirements

& Deve lop Filter for EnviroScan

Automated Search

Analysis/Visualization

Of TechnologyOptions

By PerformanceRequirements

SWOT &Benchmark

Analysis

PDANetmapDecide-Now

Retrievalware,Copernicus,Webforia

HUMINT/InterviewsBrainstorm

Inspiration

2. MapDecisionSupport

Processes

3. Determine Information

Flow

4. SelectBest

SoftwareThat

FacilitatesFlow6. Optimize

&IntegrateSystem in

Facility

Visual Links

System Block DiagramSources Collection / Storage Analyses

Link Analysis

Alternative Future Analysis

Text Extraction & Analysis

InternetDatabases Quigo

Intellisonar™

Subscrip.Databases

inToto™

LegacyDatabases

AnalystInput

PrimaryIntelligence

Oracle

DataTaxonomy AeroText™

Market Analysis

Case Studies and Lessons Learned

Case Study 1 - Knowledge Discovery

Anomaly: Small market share in all geographical areas except one region.

> What is special or different about this area?> What is the company strategy?

• Numerous spreadsheets of market data entered into War Room data base.

• Included market share by vendor, geographical data, and time period.

• Using visualization tool analystswere quickly able to see anomaly.

Full text of article is stored and parsed in databaseunder relevant topical area.

Case Study 1Using interface toolran queries on company.

System allowed look at originalWeb site if desired.

System had automaticallystored numerous articleson company.

Company with larger regional Market share started with seed money from university locatedin region with large share.

Founders migrated to SiliconValley and networked withother former alumni involved in investments. Attracted largerinvestors, and company ableto return to country of origin with major operational capability.

Analysts learned that this is business model being pursuedin number of critical technologyareas.

From detection of anomaly toidentifying new business modelonly took several hours!

Database automatically feeds link analysisvisualization tool that reveals relationshipsbetween people, companies, activities,and events.

Case Study 1

Case Study 2: Personal Profile ExampleUS Army Command

Small Technology Co. and Univ.

Israeli Defense Co.

Singapore Gov.

Russian Scientists Eur. Def. Co. Subsid. Of European Aerospace Co.

Original Co.Co. AbsorbedCompany

Member of BoardSmall Aerospace Co

Small TechCompany

?

?

European

Scandinavian

European PublishedMunitions Book

IEEE Proceedings

SPE Proceedings

German Defense Magazine

Client provided name,wrong employer and

birth info. Within 1 hour found substantial

background information using War Room.

Lessons Learned & The Way Ahead

• War Rooms are process driven– Need to map analytical

methods and logic flow before selecting tools and hardware.

• Team-based thinking and decisionmaking

•Team of analysts and IT experts•Information density and visualization techniques

Contact InformationAlison LearySteve Shaker

Evidence BasedResearch,Inc.

1595 Spring Hill Road, Suite 250

Vienna, VA 22182-2216

shaker@ebrinc.comhttp://www.ebrinc.com

Phone: 703 287 0313Fax: 703 821 7742