Warc’s Consensus Forecast publishes figures based on a weighted average of predictions from various sources, including advertising agencies, media monitoring companies and industry bodies.
Current sources include:Advertising Association; Carat; eMarketer; Magna Global; Media Partners Asia; Pivotal; Warc; Zenith Optimedia.
There will be some discrepancy between data series dependent on individual source methodology. For the purpose of this report it has been assumed that data series are comparable and figures should therefore be regarded as topline indicators of the market only.
Where ‘global’ forecasts are referenced, these are based on the weighted average of predictions from each source’s own definition of ‘global’ advertising spend. It should be noted that there may be variations in the number of countries included. For further detail please refer to individual sources.
Notes on data
warc.com
Consensus Forecast:Total Advertising Expenditure
Note: Global forecasts relate to each source organisation’s definition of ‘Global’. See ‘Notes on Data’ at start of presentation.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com
Current prices, y/y % change
2014 2015
Australia 2.1 2.9
Brazil 12.8 7.9
Canada 3.5 3.9
China 11.1 10.3
France 0.4 0.9
Germany 1.6 1.8
India 11.3 11.0
Italy -0.4 1.5
Japan 2.4 2.3
Russia 9.0 8.5
Spain 1.5 3.3
UK 6.4 5.7
US 5.5 3.8
Global 5.8 5.0
Consensus Forecast:Total Advertising Expenditure
Note: Chart ranked according to 2014 growth forecast.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
% change y/y
2014 2015
Consensus Forecast:Newspaper Advertising Expenditure
Note: Global forecasts relate to each source organisation’s definition of ‘Global’. See ‘Notes on Data’ at start of presentation.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com
Current prices, y/y % change
2014 2015
Australia -16.5 -12.4
Brazil -1.6 0.4
Canada -5.6 -3.5
China -10.1 -8.4
France -6.3 -5.2
Germany -5.0 -4.7
India 10.8 10.5
Italy -12.5 -8.4
Japan -0.1 -2.3
Russia -8.3 -7.7
Spain -3.9 -3.6
UK -5.7 -4.4
US -6.9 -6.2
Global -4.1 -3.1
Consensus Forecast:Newspaper Advertising Expenditure
Note: Chart ranked according to 2014 growth forecast.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
% change y/y
2014 2015
Consensus Forecast:Magazine Advertising Expenditure
Note: Global forecasts relate to each source organisation’s definition of ‘Global’. See ‘Notes on Data’ at start of presentation.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com
Current prices, y/y % change
2014 2015
Australia -11.0 -8.8
Brazil -4.4 -2.0
Canada -2.0 -1.4
China -5.8 -5.3
France -6.7 -4.6
Germany -2.0 -1.3
India 2.7 4.0
Italy -12.1 -7.5
Japan -0.7 -1.8
Russia -7.4 -7.5
Spain -6.5 -2.5
UK -5.9 -4.8
US -4.2 -3.2
Global -3.5 -2.8
Consensus Forecast:Magazine Advertising Expenditure
Note: Chart ranked according to 2014 growth forecast.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com
-14.0
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
% change y/y
2014 2015
Consensus Forecast:TV Advertising Expenditure
Note: Global forecasts relate to each source organisation’s definition of ‘Global’. See ‘Notes on Data’ at start of presentation.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com
Current prices, y/y % change
2014 2015
Australia 1.6 2.9
Brazil 15.3 6.3
Canada 1.2 1.8
China 5.0 4.7
France -0.1 -0.2
Germany 2.7 2.5
India 11.2 11.6
Italy 0.1 0.6
Japan 2.2 1.9
Russia 5.4 5.3
Spain 3.3 5.1
UK 5.1 3.0
US 5.0 2.0
Global 5.3 3.6
Consensus Forecast:TV Advertising Expenditure
Note: Chart ranked according to 2014 growth forecast.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
% change y/y
2014 2015
Consensus Forecast:Radio Advertising Expenditure
Note: Global forecasts relate to each source organisation’s definition of ‘Global’. See ‘Notes on Data’ at start of presentation.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com
Current prices, y/y % change
2014 2015
Australia 1.0 0.2
Brazil 8.5 8.3
Canada 2.8 2.8
China 7.1 7.0
France 0.4 1.1
Germany 1.5 1.7
India 9.9 10.5
Italy 0.2 -0.5
Japan -1.2 -0.6
Russia 9.1 6.4
Spain -1.0 1.8
UK 1.4 1.4
US 0.9 0.9
Global 2.0 2.1
Consensus Forecast:Radio Advertising Expenditure
Note: Chart ranked according to 2014 growth forecast.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
% change
2014 2015
Consensus Forecast:Cinema Advertising Expenditure
Note: Global forecasts relate to each source organisation’s definition of ‘Global’. See ‘Notes on Data’ at start of presentation.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com
Current prices, y/y % change
2014 2015
Australia 7.2 4.8
Brazil 5.6 11.6
China 21.1 14.2
France 3.4 0.2
Germany 0.3 1.3
India 14.1 13.0
Italy -10.8 -2.6
Russia 8.0 5.4
Spain 5.8 2.4
UK 2.5 2.9
US 4.7 5.0
Global 4.6 6.6
Consensus Forecast:Cinema Advertising Expenditure
Note: Chart ranked according to 2014 growth forecast.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
% change y/y
2014 2015
Consensus Forecast:Outdoor Advertising Expenditure
Note: Global forecasts relate to each source organisation’s definition of ‘Global’. See ‘Notes on Data’ at start of presentation.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com
Current prices, y/y % change
2014 2015
Australia 2.4 4.2
Brazil 17.6 15.7
Canada 2.7 3.0
China 10.4 8.8
France 0.4 1.2
Germany 3.0 2.1
India 12.4 10.6
Italy -4.0 1.0
Japan 0.0 2.1
Russia 3.7 4.8
Spain -0.8 4.4
UK 2.7 3.1
US 3.8 4.5
Global 4.2 4.9
Consensus Forecast:Outdoor Advertising Expenditure
Note: Chart ranked according to 2014 growth forecast.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
% change y/y
2014 2015
Consensus Forecast:Internet Advertising Expenditure
Note: Global forecasts relate to each source organisation’s definition of ‘Global’. See ‘Notes on Data’ at start of presentation.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com
Current prices, y/y % change
2014 2015
Australia 16.4 12.4
Brazil 20.8 16.6
Canada 12.8 11.3
China 30.0 23.3
France 6.4 6.3
Germany 9.8 8.5
India 32.3 30.3
Italy 9.2 10.0
Japan 8.1 8.1
Russia 21.9 18.7
Spain 5.3 9.1
UK 14.0 12.0
US 18.1 15.1
Global 16.4 15.1
Consensus Forecast:Internet Advertising Expenditure
Note: Chart ranked according to 2014 growth forecast.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
% change y/y
2014 2015