Washington Area Economy: Performance and...

May 5, 2017

Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook

Center for Regional AnalysisSchar School of Policy and Government

George Mason University

U.S. Gross Domestic Product

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (Seasonally Adjusted, Chained 2009 Dollars )

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

$13,000

$13,500

$14,000

$14,500

$15,000

$15,500

$16,000

$16,500

$17,000

$17,500

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0Quarterly Change Real GDP (Billions)

%

1Q17 +0.7%

U.S. Leading IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

March = 126.7

(2010 = 100.0)

U.S. Coincident IndexMonth-Over-The-Year Percent Change

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Dec-0

6

Dec-0

7

Dec-0

8

Dec-0

9

Dec-10

Dec-11

Dec-12

Dec-13

Dec-14

Dec-15

Dec-16


40

45

50

55

60

65

Mfg

N-Mfg

ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices

Source: Institute for Supply Management

Dec 2016Mfg = 54.7N-Mfg = 57.2

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000(000s)

April =+2.2M

Annual Change in Payroll Jobs – USMonth-Over-Year

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

7002

00

7

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

(000s)

US Payroll Job ChangeMonth-to-Month

April=+211K

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

125

130

135

140

145

150

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Month-to-Month Change (000s) Total (Millions)

US Payroll Jobs


2016+2.2

M

Apr+211,000

Since 2010 +16M

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

Annual Change in US Employed Workers* (000s)

Apr =+2.2M

*employed workers include full-time, part-time, self-employed and contract workersSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

U.S. Payroll Job Change by SectorApril 2016 –April 2017

-46

37

84

56

54

173

173

40

304

75

142

612

512

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Information

Federal Govt.

Transp. & Util.

Other Services

Wlse Trade

Construction

Financial

Manufacturing

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Educ & Health Svcs

(000s)Total = 2,237,000

Ranked by Size in 2016


U.S. Payroll Job Change by SectorMar 2017 –April 2017

-7

-6

4

1

7

5

19

6

55

6

23

39

41

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Information

Federal Govt.

Transp. & Util.

Other Services

Wlse Trade

Construction

Financial

Manufacturing

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Educ & Health Svcs

(000s)

Total =211K

Ranked by Size in 2016


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Economics October 2016

April= 4.4

%

IHS Forecast16 – 4.917 – 4.818 – 4.619 – 4.620 – 4.7

0

5

10

15

20

Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17

U.S. Unemployment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted)

60

65

70

Apr8.6%

U-6

UR

LFPR

Apr4.4%

Apr62.9%

Mar-Apr

U-6 -0.3%

UR.-0.1%

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Initial Claims for Unemployment4-Week Moving Average

Jan 7: 249K

Source: Department of Labor

(000s)

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan 7:249K

Source: Department of Labor

(000s)

Initial Claims for Unemployment4-Week Moving Average

Average Weekly WagesAcross all Industries

-$30

-$20

-$10

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

QOTYC Average Weekly Wage 4 per. Mov. Avg. (Average Weekly Wage)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Labor ProductivityNonfarm business, seasonally adjusted

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6 QOTYC Productivity Index

Base year (100) = 2009

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17

Consumer Confidence


Expectations

Current Situation

April 2017Cur. = 140.6 Exp. = 106.7(1985 = 100)

(1.0)

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Consumer Prices2001 - 2020

Forecast > > >

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics October 2016

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

30-Yr

10-YrTreas

Fed

Interest Rates2001 - 2016

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

%

Only false signal

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

'59 '62 '65 '68 '71 '74 '77 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07

Percentage points

10-yr./1-yr. yield spread

Source: FRB Dallas

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

10-yr./1-yr. yield spread

Source: Internal Revenue Service

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

Existing (Left Axis)

New (Right Axis)

U.S. New and Existing Home Sales(000s) (000s)

Source: U.S. Census (New)(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), National Association of Realtors (Existing)

Jan 16-Jan 17

+5.4%280K

Jan 16-Jan 17

+13% 67K

Growth in Total Consumption Outlays

3.1

3.83.5

3

2.2

-0.3

-1.6

1.92.3

1.5 1.5

2.93.2

2.7 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics October 2016

Forecast > > > >

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

GDP

Non-Res: Structures

Bus. Inv.-Eq & Sfwr

Residential Fixed

State & Local

Federal

U.S. Economic PerformancePercent Annual Change

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics October 2016

Forecast > > > > > >%

Oil Prices$ per barrel

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

$/barrel

Source: IHS Economics October 2016

Forecast > > > > >

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

125.0

130.0

Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16

U.S. Coincident and Leading IndicesDec 2009 – Dec 2016

Source: The Conference Board

C.I.

L.I.

1.8

-0.3

-2.8

2.51.6

2.21.7

2.4 2.6

1.6 1.82.2

2.8

1.2

-4

-2

0

2

4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis , GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January, 2017

U.S. GDP2007 – 2016 – 2020

(Annual % Change)

%

The Washington Economy

Elements of Population Change Washington MSA

49,005 49,178 47,773 48,669 46,424 43,886

37,714 38,895 36,749 40,119 42,240 40,581

22,979 5,5253,827

-26,362 -29,417 -31,010

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016

Po

pu

lati

on

Ch

an

ge

Net Domestic Migration Net Int'l Migration Natural Increase

Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, V2016

1.9% 1.6% 1.5% 1.1% +1.0% +0.9%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Washington MSA Leading Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change

12-MonthMoving Average

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Washington MSA Coincident Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change

12-MonthMoving Average

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

(000s)

Annual Job Change – MOTYCWashington MSA


Annual Job Change - Washington MSA

2,850

2,900

2,950

3,000

3,050

3,100

3,150

3,200

3,250

3,300

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs


Mar-17 Total: 3,245 K

000’s 000’s

Mar 16-Mar 17

+50.4 K

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

(000s)

Annual Job Change – MOTYCDistrict of Columbia


Annual Job Change – District of Columbia

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

0

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs


Mar-17 Total: 786 K

000’s 000’s

Mar 16-Mar 17

+6.2 K

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

(000s)

Annual Job Change – MOTYCSuburban Maryland


Annual Job Change – Suburban MD

860

880

900

920

940

960

980

1,000

1,020

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs


Mar-17 Total: 1007 K

000’s 000’s

Mar 16-Mar 17

+26.6K

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

(000s)

Annual Job Change – MOTYCNorthern Virginia


Annual Job Change – Northern VA

1,280

1,300

1,320

1,340

1,360

1,380

1,400

1,420

1,440

1,460

1,480

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs


Mar-17 Total: 1,446 K

000’s 000’s

Mar 16-Mar 17

+28.1K

41

Employment Composition by SectorMar 2017

Washington MSA

1.6%

1.9%

2.0%

2.2%

4.6%

4.8%

6.0%

8.5%

9.9%

10.4%

11.3%

13.7%

23.0%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Transportation & Utilities

Information

Construction

Financial Activites

Other Services

Retail Trade

Leisure & Hospitality

State & Local Government

Federal Government

Education & Health Services

Professional & Business…

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

Job Change by SectorMar 2016 – Mar 2017

Washington MSA

-0.3

0.8

1.3

-2.8

-0.2

-3.5

1.0

3.6

14.3

5.1

1.9

9.8

19.5

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25

Manufacturing

Wlse Trade

Transp. & Util.

Information

Financial

Construction

Other Services

Retail Trade

Leisure & Hosp.

State & Local Govt

Federal Govt.

Educ & Health Svcs

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total = 50,500


(Ranked by Size in 2016)

Job Change by SectorFeb 2017 – Mar 2017

Washington MSA (000s) Total = 5,000


0.4

0.4

0.8

-0.7

-1.0

-1.0

-0.9

-0.5

3.6

3.6

-0.4

-1.1

1.8

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

Manufacturing

Wlse Trade

Transp. & Util.

Information

Financial

Construction

Other Services

Retail Trade

Leisure & Hosp.

State & Local Govt

Federal Govt.

Educ & Health Svcs

Prof. & Bus. Svcs


Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSA

620

640

660

680

700

720

740

760

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

MOTYC

Total Jobs

(000s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Mar-17 Total: 744.9K

Mar 16-Mar 17

+19.5K

Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSA

Month Over the Year Change

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

Prof., Sci. & Tech. Svcs & Mgt. Admin. & Waste Mgt.


(000s)

Federal GovernmentWashington MSA

345

350

355

360

365

370

375

380

385

390

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

MOTYC

TotalJobs

(000s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Mar-17 Total: 367K

(000s)

Mar 16-Mar 17

+1,900

Federal Procurement in the Washington MSA1980-2016 (Fiscal Years)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

73.8

$ Billions

TOTAL = $1,409.7 Billion 79.976.3

69.1 71.1

Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov

71.2

82.4

Job Change by SectorMar 2016 – Mar 2017District of Columbia

0.0

-0.3

0.4

-1.4

-0.3

-0.1

-0.7

1.1

-1.3

3.7

3.2

2.8

-0.9

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

Manufacturing

Wlse Trade

Transp. & Util.

Construction

Information

Retail Trade

Financial

State & Local Govt

Other Services

Leisure & Hosp.

Educ & Health Svcs

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Federal Govt.

(000s) Total 6,200



Job Change by SectorFeb 2017 – Mar 2017District of Columbia

0.0

-0.1

0.2

0.1

-0.1

0.1

-0.4

0.1

-0.2

1.3

0.1

-0.8

0.3

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

Manufacturing

Wlse Trade

Transp. & Util.

Construction

Information

Retail Trade

Financial

State & Local Govt

Other Services

Leisure & Hosp.

Educ & Health Svcs

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Federal Govt.

(000s) Total 600



Job Change by SectorMar 2016 – Mar 2017Suburban Maryland

-0.4

0.3

0.5

0.1

0.6

0.4

0.0

2.5

5.0

1.6

6.7

3.7

5.6

-2 0 2 4 6 8

Information

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Other Services

Financial

Construction

Federal Govt.

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total 26,600



Job Change by SectorFeb 2017 – Mar 2017Suburban Maryland

0.1

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.4

-0.3

0.1

-0.1

1.6

-1.1

1.7

0.0

1.6

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Information

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Other Services

Financial

Construction

Federal Govt.

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total: 4,400



Job Change by SectorMar 2016 – Mar 2017

Northern Virginia

0.5

1.2

-2.8

-0.2

2.3

1.7

0.1

0.0

3.7

0.6

1.8

6.0

13.2

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Manufacturing

Wlse Trade

Information

Transp. & Util.

Construction

Financial

Other Services

Federal Govt.

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total 28,100



Job Change by SectorFeb 2017 – Mar 2017

Northern Virginia

0.3

0.3

-0.2

-0.2

1.6

0.2

-0.2

-0.9

1.8

0.3

0.1

-0.8

-0.6

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Manufacturing

Wlse Trade

Information

Transp. & Util.

Construction

Financial

Other Services

Federal Govt.

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total 1,700



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

5.7 – DC4.5 –U.S.3.8– SMD

3.7 – MSA3.1 – NVA

Unemployment Rates in the WMSABy Sub-State Area

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)

5

2

1

9

23

31

84

40

72

80

WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private SectorThe Great Recession and Recovery

-5

-7

-10

-12

-10

-8

-49

-34

-23

0

-24

-100 -75 -50 -25 0

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

Educ & Health Svcs

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s)


Total -181 Total 345

Aug 2008-Feb 2010 Feb 2010-Sep 2016

15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment Rate

March 2017

3.7

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

US: 4.5

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)

Feb17-Mar

17

WSH

-0.2%

15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: March 2016 – March 2017

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140(000s)

Washington +50,500


15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: March 2016 – March 2017

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

Washington +1.6%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional AnalysisSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: 2014 – 2015

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%(000s)

Washington + 1.9%


15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: 2015 – 2016

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%(000s)

Washington + 1.8%


-4

-2

0

2

4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

%

U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 2007 – 2016 – 2020

(Annual % Change)

Washington

U.S.

%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis , GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January, 2017

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

%

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: April 2016

Economic Outlook (GRP), 2007-2020Washington Area and Sub-State Areas

(Annual % Change)

DC

SM

MSA

NV

%

Employment Change in the Washington MSA(Thousands of Jobs)

Average Annual Change 1990-2016 = 37,300Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (January 2016)NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV.

28.1

18.6

57.7 55.651.0

36.0 38.1 40.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Employment Change in the WMSAby Sub-State Area (000s)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

D.C. 13.4 5.2 15.9 13.0 9.7 10.6 8.9 8.2

Sub. MD 7.2 10.2 12.5 14.4 17.7 14.1 12.0 11.0

No. VA 9.2 0.8 29.8 31.0 23.6 15.9 13.7 12.6

REGION 28.1 18.6 57.7 55.6 51.0 40.6 34.6 31.8

Average Annual Change 1990-2016 = 37,300Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (December 2016)NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV.

Long commutes diminish quality of lifeProportion of workers with travel time to work of 60 or more minutes

65

5.5%6.8%6.8%

8.7%9.0%

10.0%11.4%

11.8%11.9%

12.5%13.3%

14.4%14.8%

17.0%17.3%

21.4%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

MinneapolisPhoenixDetroit

DallasUnited States

MiamiPhiladelphia

SeattleHouston

Los AngelesAtlanta

ChicagoBoston

SF-OaklandWashington

New York

Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey, Table S0802

Metrorail ridership is in decline

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16*

Annu

al ch

ange

in M

etro

rail

Aver

age

Wee

kday

Pas

seng

er B

oard

ings DC

Maryland

All Metro

Alexandria

Arlington

Fairfax

Source: Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA)

67

Housing Market Trends

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Th

ou

san

ds

% Chg Inv Inventory

Inventories of Existing HomesMonth-Over-Year 2000 – 2017, MSA

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.

APR

-11%

(60.0)

(40.0)

(20.0)

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes

Month-Over-Year 2000 – 2017, MSA

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.

MAR

-11%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Existing Home SalesWashington MSA

Through April 2017

12-Month Moving Average

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

7,459 Apr 2017

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Existing Home SalesWashington MSA

Month-Over-Year Change


+ 1,007Apr 2017

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Washington MSABuilding Permits

2011 – 2017, 3-Month Moving Avg

Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

March 1,690

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Building Permit Change (MOTYC)Washington MSA


Mar -629

Building Permit Percent Change (MOTYC)6 Month Moving AverageWashington MSA and US


MSA1,557-30%

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

US MSA

US 87,327+16%

%

U.S. Construction

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Building PermitsWashington MSA as a Percent of US

w/ 12 Month moving average%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000Inventory Permits

Inventory and PermitsWashington MSA


(000s)

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Median House Sales PriceWashington MSA

$417.8 KApr 2017


(000s)(000s)

Median House Sales Price

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Washington MSA) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington)

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Alexandria City)(000s)


Median Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC)Washington MSA

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC)Washington MSA

32

66

9

34 4

7

8

10

14

6

11

98 8

9

8

7

89

45

8

9

3

5

2 21

2

-1

5

1

45

1

2

0

0

-1

10

3

0

4

-3

-2

0

0

1

-1

2

0

2

0

1

-1

3

6

7

6

4

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


%

Apr = $467K

Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC)District of Columbia

10

8 8

0

14

-3-4

4

13

7

1314

1

8

4

6

2

15

11

5

17

45

-5

1011

-1

1211

6

4

-1

-6

12

0

10

7

5 5

1 1

-2

3

8

9

6

10

-1

-3-2

5

1 1

4

-2

11

2

-1

-3

4

11

14

9

-1

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


%

Apr = $628K

Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC)Suburban Maryland

-4

-2-1

10

11

54

0

911

6

14

4

1111

8

1011

1212

6

910

5

12

13

5 4

1

0

-2

2

4 4

-3

21

-3

1 1

-1-1

3

-1

3

-4

5

-1

0

5

-2

2

0

4

0

2

-4

7

1

3

6

8 8

6

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


%

Apr = $400K

Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC)Northern Virginia

4

2

9

5

7

3

5 5

3

6

10

13

9

10

9 9

8 7

6

4

8

10

2

6

45

1

3

12

2

4

-1

2

45

8

4 4

0

2

0

0-1

2

32

-4

-2

0 0

2

-1

10 0 1

0-1

4

3

43

4

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


%

Apr = $486K

Total Listings Per SaleSep Each Year

-

5

10

15

20

25

LDN

PG

FFXARL

DC

MONT

PW


Total Active Listings Per Sale February Each Year – Metro Area

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


Where are we?

• We are growing:

• Some diversification• Some catch-up• Recent job growth across all

wage levels• Growth will continue in

2017, but at a moderating pace

• Advantages• Government Center• International Institutions• Connectivity to the World• Concentration of Leaders• Access to capital• High Quality-of-Life• Diverse Population• Higher Education• Educated Work Force• Advanced Occupational

Specializations

• Challenges• Drain the swamp/Sequester

• Further market shifts needed

• Cost of living/doing business

• Mobility

• Access to capital

• Regional branding / cooperation

• Globally competitive?

• Understanding changing nature of jobs

• Productivity

Thank You

Questions

cra.gmu.edu

Date post:	19-May-2018
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