Water Agriculture & SustainabilityView from the Sun Corridor Mega-Region
Jim Holway, Ph.D., AICP
Director, Joint VentureSonoran Institute & Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
Shaping the Future of the West
Water and …..• Growth• Energy• Climate
• Agriculture…. Is this the source ?• Environment ….. Is anything left ?
ForcesDriving
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 20300
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
AZ
CO
UT
NM
NV
Year
Popu
latio
n
Southwest States - Growth
Comparison of central Arizona supply and demand
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 21000
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
Acr
e-Fe
et
2030 = 2.0 million af 8.5 million
people
2045 = 2.4 million acre-feet 10.2 million people
2075 = 3.1 million acre-feet 12.9 million people
2100 = 3.6 million acre-feet 15.2 million people
Uncertain
Possibly Available
Likely Available
Currently Secured
M.J. Pasqualetti, School of Geographical Sciences, ASU
Average Gallons Needed per one MWhr Arizona-Based Facilities (2002-2006)
Significant Cultural Events
Municipal17% Industrial
1%
Agriculture82%
California Water Use - 2000
Municipal23%
Industrial4%
Agriculture73%
Nevada Water Use - 2000Municipal
7% Ind/Comm2%
Agriculture86%
Other5%
Colorado Water Use - 2006
Municipal20%
Industrial6%
Agriculture74%
Arizona Water Use - 2006Who Uses The Water
1973 1978 1983 1985 1990 1995 1998 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 -
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Year
Dem
and
(af)
Historic & Projected Demands – Phoenix AMA
Total
Municipal
Agriculture
IndustrialIndian
Pinal County Listening Session
• Proximity to urban centers could be an opportunity • Concerns
– urbanization / farmland preservation– Impact of development on water supplies– Input prices (energy, fertilizers)– Labor management with new crops– Do the kids want to farm?
• Questions for future– Maintaining feed supplies for dairies– How to manage transition from field to specialty crops – Operating on leased (as opposed to owned) land – Labor-saving technology
Envisioning Sustainable MegaRegionAgriculture
– Define a role for agriculture in “MegaRegion– Comprehensive land use planning should consider
Ag preservation & suitability– Agriculture as land & water (drought) buffer – Mechanisms
• Right to Farm protections• Substitution of alternative Ag lands• TDRs & easements• Tax policy - property & inheritance
Source: EDAW
Thank You
I look forward to learning from your efforts !
Sonoran Institute & Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
Shaping the Future of the West
City of Phoenix – Water Deliveries by Use
Sector & Type of Use Percent of Total
Percent of Sector
RESIDENTIAL 66
Landscape 51
Pools 14
Indoors 35
NON-RESIDENTIAL 34
Landscape 61
Cooling 8
Other (e.g. process) 31
City of Phoenix – Water Deliveries by Use
Sector & Type of Use Percent of Total
Percent of Sector
RESIDENTIAL 66
Landscape 51
Pools 14
Indoors 35
NON-RESIDENTIAL 34
Landscape 61
Cooling 8
Other (e.g. process) 31
S = f( P * R * L * T * G + A)(state variables & change trajectories)
– P: Population – R: Resource Base (including Climate)– L: Lifestyle (Consumption Patterns)– T: Technology for Managing Resources– G: Governance– A: Adaptation (Resilience)
SUSTAINABILITY
Thresholds & Tipping Points
• Reaching / Exceeding Limits?– reallocations & new supplies, optimizing system– Energy required - costs
• Future - differ from past? – climate … economy … federal policy
• Public / Market Choices – water for what?– growth … lifestyle … ecosystems … industry
• Major Infrastructure Investments• Conjunctive Management & Regional Coordination• Democratize Water Management
Principles for Managing Urban Water Environments
1. Everything is Connected ecosystem level – watersheds – adaptive mgmt
2. People are part of the Ecosystem public vision – aesthetic & ecological functions
3. Institutions Mediate & Shape Relationships scale – scope – adaptable authorities
4. Change is Inevitable understand drivers - anticipate & manage
5. Water Mgmt Requires Interdisciplinary Approach
Water Environment of Cites. Springer 2009
Water, Sustainability & Policy A Few Big Questions
• How can we build resiliency & management capacity into legal frameworks & institutions
• Do we have the right balance between private rights and public welfare
• What is the right mix of market & non-market mechanisms
• How to best incorporate the environment, ecosystem health and 3rd party impacts
• Do we need more democracy, more collaboration … … or less
Life Cycle Water Use per Vehicle Mile
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
Petro
leum
Bas
edU
nlea
ded
Coa
l + C
S
Sola
r PV
Sola
r CSP
Switc
hgra
ss -
Not
Irrig
ated
Switc
hgra
ss -
Irrig
ated
Soy
Nat
iona
lAv
erag
e
Soy
Biod
iese
l -Irr
igat
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Cor
n Et
hano
lN
atio
nal A
vera
ge
Cor
n E
than
ol -
Irrig
ated
mic
robi
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iodi
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- Clo
sed
mic
robi
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iodi
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- Ope
n
Gal
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H2O
/VM
T
Harto, Meyers & Williams: School of Sustainability, ASU