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Water and Security
Claude Arpi
Human Quests?
• The Quest to live
• The Quest to dominate others
• The Quest to defend itself
• The Quest to survive
• The Quest to grow and develop
• The Quest to know
• The Quest to Happiness
What is Security?
• The state of being secure
• A United Nations study (1986) defined
Security as a national condition, so that
countries can develop and progress
safely.
• Precautions taken to ensure against
threats, attacks, thefts, espionage,
denial of vital commodities, etc .
The Quest for Fire: the first Security Issue
What is National Security?
National security is the requirement
to maintain the survival of the State
through the use of economic,
military, political power; diplomacy
or other means (non-violent
alternatives?)
The Quest for the Atom
Peaceful and destructive use of the
atom
Tibetan Plateau: its Strategic Importance
He who holds Tibet dominates the Himalayan piedmont; he
who dominates the Himalayan piedmont, threatens the Indian subcontinent; and
he who threatens the Indian subcontinent may well have all of South-east Asia within his reach, and all of Asia.
Security: Defending a National Border
The 1962 Sino-Indian
Conflict
Conventional Security Issues/Threats
‘Defending the borders’
Conventional Security Issues/Threats
Missiles based in Qinghai can be transported by
rail or road
The Quest for Oil: the Gulf War
Next: Water Wars?
In 1995, Ismail Serageldin, Director of
Alexandria Library declared: “Many of the
wars this century were about oil, but those of
the next century will be over water.”
He wanted to “ring the alarm bell for the
impending water crisis”.
Some Statistics
China’s Water Reserves
From Conventional to Unconventional Security Threats
Arunachal & Himachal Floods (2000, 2004)
Was the lake breached to allow
waters to flow downstream?
Third Pole’s Waters
Rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau• The Yarlung Tsangpo (or Brahmaputra)• The Yangtze • The Yellow River • The Mekong, the Salween, the Irrawaddy • The Arun & the Karnali• The Sutlej and the Indus • 90% of their runoff flows to China, India,
Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam.
The Western Diversions
Save China through Water from Tibet ?
Guo Kai and one
of his colleague
s
Li Ling ’s book
A Reservoir would be located in Qinghai
The Shuotian Canal
• 56 kilometers of tunnels,
• The longest being 20 kms long,
• 200 billion cubic meters of water
diverted
• A 300-meter-high dam
US$25.1 billion
Estimated by Gao
at US $25.1 billion
The Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra)
• Originating near Mt Kailash• 2,900 km long• Flows 2,047 km in Tibet mostly above 4000 m• Takes a U-Turn before entering India in Upper
Siang (Arunachal)
A Megadam: a Security Risk for India
A proposed megada
m?
Biological Security: a lost Paradise
60 % of Tibet’s
biological
resources are
located in this area
Security Implications
• A huge artificial lake stretching hundreds of kms upstream
• Danger due to the high seismicity of the region
• China’s control of the Brahmaputra waters
• Loss of a biological reserve
The Great ‘Assam’ EarthquakeAugust 15, 1950
Rivers were blocked up for a while, and then broke through, they came down with
rush and a roar, a high wall of water sweeping down and flooding large areas and washing away villages and fields and gardens. These rivers have changed their colour and carried some sulphurous and other material which spread a horrible smell for some distance around them.
Jawaharlal Nehru
Zipingpu ‘Sichuan’ Earthquake
In May 2008, more than 87,000 lost their lives in the ‘Sichuan’
earthquake.Was the earthquake triggered by the weight of the Zipingpu
reservoir nearby?
A Step ForwardThe Chinese side agreed to take measures for
controlled release of accumulated water of the
landslide dam on the river Pareechu, as soon as
conditions permit.
It was noted with satisfaction that an agreement
concerning the provision of hydrological data on
Sutlej was concluded during the visit and that the
two sides had also agreed to continue bilateral
discussions to finalize at an early date similar
arrangements for the Parlung Zangbo and Lohit
Rivers.
During Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to India
Joint Statement (April 2005)
The two sides will set up an expert-level mechanism to discuss interaction and cooperation on the provision of flood season hydrological data, emergency management and other issues regarding trans-border rivers as agreed between them.
During President Hu Jintao’s visit to India November 2006, Joint Declaration
Wang Shucheng, China's Minister for Water Resources stated that the Gao Kai’s diversion scheme was "unnecessary, unfeasible and unscientific" and had no government backing. The China Daily quoted him as saying: "There is no need for such dramatic and unscientific projects.“
Another step forward
After a War: Coal and Steel
What could be done to link France and Germany, and implant a
common interest between them, before it was too late? That was the question I turned over and over in my mind in the silent
concentration of the day's march.
I could see only one solution: we must bind
ourselves inextricably to Germany in a common
undertaking in which our other neighbours could
join. A European-wide territory of prosperity and peace would thus be created.
The European Example
Coal and steel were at once the key to
economic power and the raw materials for forging weapons of
war. This double role gave them immense
symbolic significance, now largely forgotten, but comparable at the time to that of nuclear energy today. To pool them across frontiers
would reduce their malign prestige and
turn them instead into a guarantee of peace.
How to Solve the Quest for Water?
• A fair and binding Treaty between upper
and lower riparian States such as the UN
Convention on the Law of the Non-
Navigational Uses of International
Watercourses (1997)
• A High Authority or any other
supranational mechanism to manage
rivers from the Third Pole?