Water Availability Report · 2017-09-12 · Mar-17 Apr-17 Jun-Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18...

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Water Availability Report 11 September 2017

Table of Contents

Overview ........................................................................................................................ 2 System Risks ................................................................................................................... 2 Climatic Conditions ............................................................................................................ 3 3 Month Forecast Climatic Conditions ...................................................................................... 4 Valley Based Operational Activities ......................................................................................... 5

Murray Valley .............................................................................................................. 5 Lower Darling Valley..................................................................................................... 5 Murrumbidgee Valley .................................................................................................... 6 Lachlan Valley ............................................................................................................. 7 Macquarie Valley .......................................................................................................... 9 Namoi Valley ............................................................................................................. 11 Gwydir Valley ............................................................................................................ 13 Border Rivers ............................................................................................................ 14 Bega River ................................................................................................................ 16 Hunter Valley ............................................................................................................ 16 Toonumbar Dam ........................................................................................................ 18

Water NSW – Dam Levels.................................................................................................. 19

Authorised by Craig Cahill

Water System Operations Manager North (07) 4671 6126

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Overview WaterNSW manages and operates 42 dams and storages to deliver water for environmental, domestic, town water, stock, industrial and irrigation purposes across the state.

WaterNSW storages provide supplies to all of the major river systems in Western NSW, Greater Sydney, the Southern Highlands, Shoalhaven Bay as well as the Hunter, Bega, and Iron Pot valleys in coastal NSW.

The total active storage percentage of rural water supplies on 11 September 2017 was 75.0% of the total active storage capacity. This resulted in an increase of 0.1% from last week.

The total storage level of urban water supplies on 11 September 2017 was 89.3% of the total storage capacity. This was a 0.6% decrease from last week.

System Risks BoM is forecasting average probability of median rainfall across inland NSW while above average on

the north and south coast with warmer minimum and maximum temperatures during spring.

Spills from southern and central storages have about a 25-50% chance of occurring over winter/spring due to relatively high storage levels.

Releases planned to increase with increasing temperatures to satisfy orders across the state.

Increasing demand with increased temperatures may cause some system shortfalls. Delivery of peak irrigation and environmental water demands down the Bulgeragar Creek if the channel

capacity is not restored

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Climatic Conditions A high pressure system was located over the northern Tasman Sea in the beginning of the week and the warm air from central Australia ahead of a cold front contracted to the far northeast. Cooler fresh to strong westerly winds extended over the remainder. A deep low located south of Tasmania maintained a cool to cold westerly airstream across New South Wales through the first part of the week. Rainfall for the next 4 days occurred to the south of the state, with falls of 1 - 25mm, mainly in the Snowy Mountains area. The rest of the state was dry.

Figure 1 - Weekly rainfall totals for New South Wales (w/e 11 September 2017)

A high pressure system drifting over southeast Australia is promoting dry and mostly clear conditions. This high will remain over the northern Tasman Sea in the early part of the week, with warm northerly winds developing over New South Wales as a series of cold fronts approach from the west. A significant front will bring a vigorous cool change during the latter part of the week. Rainfall will be minimal over the next week (around 1mm) across the southern part of the state. The Snow Mountain region should receive around 10mm.

Figure 2a - 4 day Forecast (1st 4 days) Figure 2b – Following 4 day forecast (15 - 18 Sept)

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3 Month Forecast Climatic Conditions BoM is forecasting average probability of median rainfall in across inland NSW while above average on

the north and south coast.

Figure 3 - 3 month rainfall forecast

The spring (September to November) outlook, issued 17 August 2017, suggests rainfall is likely to be below average for western parts of Australia.

September is likely to be drier in southwest Australia, but wetter in parts of southern Queensland.

Daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia. Chances are highest (greater than 80%) in the north and southeast.

Spring nights are likely to be warmer than average over northern and eastern Australia.

Both of Australia's major climate drivers at this time of year, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), remain neutral. More localised influences, such as sea surface temperatures around the Australian coastline, are likely to be affecting this outlook.

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Valley Based Operational Activities Murray Valley Storage Status

Hume Dam is currently at about 90%, releasing about 4,200 ML/day.

Predicted Release Patterns

Releases from Hume Dam are likely to remain around the current rates

The flow at downstream Yarrawonga Weir is about 8,600 ML/day. The flow is likely to range between 7,500 and 8,500 ML/day depending on environmental targets.

Stevens Weir is being held at about 4.6m to assist in diversion to the Wakool-Yallakool system. The flow at downstream Stevens Weir is about 1,900 ML/day and is likely to gradually recede.

Environmental watering events in the Wakool / Yallakool and Colligen systems are continuing at low rates and are likely to continue to end of June 2018.

The Edward offtake regulator has been raised clear of water is response to high flows in the Murray River.

Gates in the Gulpa Creek Offtake Regulator has been reinstated to control the flow at about 350ML/day.

Operating Conditions

Dam Spill Likelihood: Based on historical inflow conditions recent low inflows there is about a 50% chance of Hume Dam spilling by November. BoM is forecasting a lower than average probability of median rainfall in the catchment this winter.

Stevens Weir pool is being maintained at about 4.6m, and will be held at about this level to supply water to irrigation and environmental flow in the Wakool system.

Flows at the Wakool River offtake, with gates fully open, is currently around 60-70ML/day for eWater.

The Yallakool Offtake Regulator has been fully opened and the flows are likely to be maintained around the current range of about 530ML/day for eWater delivery.

Planned Supply Interruptions

None.

Lower Darling Valley Storage Status

The lakes currently hold a total volume of about 705 GL or about 36% of active capacity.


Menindee outlet releases to Darling River are currently averaging about 200 ML/d to supply environmental orders above minimum flow targets. L Wetherall outlet is releasing about 210ML/d.

Releases for operational requirements of MDBA may be delayed until late September / early October due to tributary inflows in the Murray.

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Approximately 57GL of inflow has been recorded at Lake Wetherall from 1 May 2017 and the inflows to the lake system have nearly ceased.

Irrigation releases for the Redbank Creek from Lake Cawndilla are continuing at about 550 ML/day.

Planning is underway with MDBA to leave enough water in the upper lakes, to secure Broken Hill and Lower Darling supplies, through a repeat of the worst drought on record.


Nil

Murrumbidgee Valley Storage Status

Burrinjuck Dam is currently at about 60% releasing about 450 ML/day.

Blowering Dam is about 83% releasing about 4,400ML/day.


The releases from Burrinjuck are likely to remain around the minimum planned releases as per

transparency / translucency rules.

The releases from Blowering dam are likely to remain around 4,400 to 5,000 ML/day to meet the

irrigation and system demands.


Dam Spill Likelihood: Based on historical inflow conditions there is about a 35% chance of both Burrinjuck and Blowering Dams spilling by October 2017. BoM is forecasting a lower than average probability of median rainfall in the catchment this winter.

Irrigation demands have started to increase especially in the Yanco Creek system and Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area. Due to very dry winter, most broad acre farmers who did not pre-irrigate or do not have on farm storages require water to support the winter cereals. There is some interest in pre-irrigating for Cotton crops and is expected increase by mid-September.

All the lay flat gates in the Beavers Creek Offtake have been fully lowered, as per the Work Approval

conditions, to allow free fish passage. During September the gates may commence controlling the

flows subject to regulated flow target of 600ML/day at Kywong.

The current diversion into the Yanco Creek is about 660ML/d. In addition about 100ML/day from CCD escape of CICL has been called to meet the Yanco – Billabong system demands.

Water Operations and Customer Operations staff are working closely with customers in the Yano-Billabong system to manage water orders. Several water users have been identified to take water without valid orders while few have not been taking water in accordance with existing water orders.

The excess flow in the Murrumbidgee system is being captured for re-regulation in Tombullen and Hay Weirs.

Maude and Redbank Weirs would remain well below the full supply levels and the available airspace would be utilised to capture any surplus flows in the system.

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The river flow below Gogeldrie weir is likely to remain low as most of the downstream demands would be met from re-regulation available in the Tombullen storage and Hay Weir. A customer notice / media release has been issued to advise the water users.


Nil

Lachlan Valley Storage Status

Carcoar dam is at 91% and releases are at the riparian flow of 2 ML/d.

Wyangala Dam is at 87% of capacity and releases have averaged about 1300 ML/d.

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Burrinjuck Dam Forecast Storage CapacityUpdated mid-August 2017

Extreme dry scenario (99%)Dry Scenario (80%)Average scenario (50%)Wet scenario (20%)Actual

* Including Snowy releases

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Blowering Dam Forecast Storage CapacityUpdated mid-August 2017

Extreme dry scenario (99%)Dry Scenario (80%)Average scenario (50%)Wet scenario (20%)Actual

* Including Snowy releases

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Predicted Release Patterns The tributaries downstream of Carcoar Dam are still able to meet the minimum flow at Helensholme,

therefore the release from Carcoar Dam will be maintained at the minimum of 2 ML/d.

The release from Wyangala Dam is currently at 1100 ML/d and this release is to meet the irrigation and

operations demands for Upper Lachlan alone. Lower Lachlan demands are met with water released

from Lake Cargelligo and Lake Brewster.

The operational target flow at Lake Cargelligo is now set to 150 ML/D. The change is to manage the

expected increase in demand from summer watering with minimal operational shortfalls in the upper

Lachlan.

Delivery of Stock and Domestic replenishment flows into Merrowie, Muggabah and Willandra Creeks

have ceased. Delivery to Merrowie Creek ceased on 15 July 2017, Willandra Creek on 2nd August

2017 and Muggabah Creek on 17th August 2017.

The Lower Lachlan releases at Brewster have been averaging 420 ML/d to meet the irrigation

demands.


Supplementary access on the Belubula River recommenced on 21st May 2017 and ceased on 9th

September 2017.

Dam Spill Likelihood: Based on historical inflow conditions there is a 20% chance of Wyangala Dam

spilling by end of September 2017. However, BoM is forecasting a lower than average probability of

median rainfall in the catchment this spring.

The ongoing assessment of airspace requirements at Wyangala has not yet indicated the need to

make pre-releases.

The translucent flow period is from mid-May to mid-November at the dam. The inflows to Wyangala

Dam from January to 11th September totalled 75.3 GL. Another 175 GL of dam inflows are required in

order to trigger any delivery of translucent environmental water. As there is only 158 GL of airspace left

in Wyangala Dam, it is highly likely that all three storages will fill and spill before commencement of any

translucent environmental water delivery.

Lake Cargelligo storage is currently at 97 % and it is planned to maintain the storage level below 100%.

The flows in the regulated section of the Willandra Creek have been restored and planned to maintain

very minimal flows when there are no water orders.

The Island Creek fish ladder was re-opened on the 2nd August 2017.

As of 5th September 2017, the Lake Brewster level is 139m and overall, Lake Brewster is currently at

72% holding about 105 GL.

When water in Lake Brewster northern cells depletes, it is planned to manage the outflow wetlands

actively in order to allow growth in wetland plants.

Latest samples from Lake Brewster show no cyanobacteria except the outlet channel. The outlet

channel is dominated by benign cyanobacteria. All sites are currently at green alert levels.

Planned Supply Interruptions A workshop was held on 1 August 2017 after Cowra experienced poor water quality between January

28 and Feb 6 this year. Treated water turbidity exceeded the critical limit of 0.5 NTU on four occasions.

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Poor clarifier performance (settled water turbidity exceeded the critical limit of >5 NTU) which put

excess load onto the filters and caused turbidity breakthrough in the treated water. The root cause was

identified as changes in raw water temperatures (caused by unseasonal high temperatures) which led

to poor clarifier performance.

The outcome of the workshop concluded that the council requires a better long term infrastructure

solution but in the meantime, WaterNSW was asked to assist in a trial in this coming summer by pulsing

higher flows when the Cowra experiences high temperature similar to this year’s temperatures. The

overall releases should be within the limits of the power station capacity, within the daily average of the

required releases and do not create a change of more than 0.2m at Cowra in order to reduce bank

slumping.

Account spill and reset of general security allocations

If WaterNSW were to commence dam releases to maintain airspace in Wyangala Dam, it will trigger an

account spill and reset of general security allocation accounts, high security spillable sub-accounts and

the conveyance licence account as per section 56 of the Lachlan WSP. DPI Water has announced that

if there is an account spill and reset there will be no further reset in the following 6 months.

Macquarie Valley Storage Status

Burrendong Dam is currently at 79.3% and Windamere Dam is at 48.5% of active capacity.


Currently releases from Burrendong are around 1800ML/d and would gradually reduce to 1500ML/d

during this week. Majority of the water released from the dam is for delivering environmental flows. A

total of ~120 GL will be delivered to the Macquarie Marshes over 90 days. About 35GL down the

Marebone Break and 85GL downstream of Marebone Weir in the Macquarie River.

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Release made from Burrendong Dam for environmental flows are passing through Marebone Weir and

are getting diverted as per the orders into Marebone Break (further bifurcation of water in Bulgeraga Ck

and Gum Cowal) and d/s Marebone weir.

Environmental managers require the bulk of the environmental water ordered for river d/s to be

delivered via the new bypass gates to provide the attraction flows for the fishway. As the new bypass

gates are not automated it requires manual settings of the gates. The manual operation is inefficient

and it is not always possible to maximise the attraction flows through the bypass gates.

As part of a three-year watering strategy for Macquarie Marshes resilience, it is planned to deliver about

135 GL in 2017-18 from combined licenced and EWA allocations. In addition, a native fish connection

flow to the Barwon River and a fish dispersal flow in the Mid-Macquarie River may be delivered if the

right conditions are triggered.

Releases from Windamere are approximately 55 ML/d. Due to dry conditions the orders have slightly

increased and the target at Yamble Bridge was also increased.

It is anticipated that orders for summer watering may not commence until after October. Most irrigators

are likely to use the water in their on-farm storages first. The initial indications are that a total of about

400 GL may be extracted for irrigation this water year.


Based on 24th July test results, Windamere Dam is on Amber alert due to detection of Dolichospermum

sp. at the recreational area.

Dam Spill Likelihood: Based on historical inflow conditions there is a 20% chance of Burrendong Dam

reaching 100% by end of September 2017. However, BoM is forecasting a lower than average

probability of median rainfall in the catchment this winter. Burrendong Dam currently has airspace of

240 GL to 100% and another 490 GL of airspace in the FMZ. It is highly likely that demand for

environmental watering and irrigation will increase the airspace further.

Minimal winter irrigation water usage is expected this year, with water being planned for higher value

summer cropping.


Remedial works have been carried out in the Bulgergar Creek channel between site #2 regulator and

the regulator at Mill’s crossing to fix the breakouts occurred during the 2016 floods. It has been

observed that the total water that is being diverted into Marebone Bk at the offtake is not fully arriving at

the Bulgeragar Ck and Gum Cowal bifurcation.

Deep water diving component of the investigations to reinstate Cold Water Pollution temperature curtain

which started last week has been concluded and no further outages are planned.

The works on the main penstock at Burrendong Dam have been successfully completed on time as

planned. The penstock is now recharged and the hydro power station and two large discharge valves

are in operation. The third large discharge valves will be in operation by end of this week.

DPI Water has approved rule changes relating to accounting of carryover spill in the WSP to minimise

the impact of planned outage of outlet works on the individual’s total available water.

A customer notice has been issued with the modification of the accounting rule.

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Namoi Valley Storage Status

Keepit Dam is at 68%, Split Rock Dam is at 30% and Chaffey Dam is at 93% of active capacity.

Predicted Release Patterns Required releases to meet demand are expected to gradually increase throughout spring. Warm dry

conditions, coupled with reasonably high water availability, will likely result in demand increasing earlier

than average at this time of year.

The Lower Namoi River below Gunidgera weir is drying back after end of system flows provided

throughout June to August.

Some limited demand is present upstream of Gunidgera and Mollee Weirs.

Higher volume general security releases are not expected to commence from Keepit Dam until mid to

late September 2017 to meet summer cropping demand.

Operating Conditions Catchment conditions are drying, though more positive in the east. End of system flows which have

maintained low flows over winter months have ceased and receded such that parts of the Namoi River

below Gunidgera Weir are likely cease to flow .

Low inflows from the Peel into the Lower Namoi continue, though receding.

Dam Spill Likelihood: Based on historical inflow conditions there is less than 5% chance of Keepit Dam

spilling by December. BoM is forecasting a 55 to 60% probability of above median rainfall in the

catchment over the next three months.

Dam Spill Likelihood: Based on historical inflow conditions there is less than a 5% chance of Split Rock

Dam spilling by December.

Dam Spill Likelihood: Based on historical inflow conditions there is a 50% chance of Chaffey Dam

spilling sometime before December. BoM is forecasting an average probability of median rainfall over

the next three months (though warmer than average temps are forecast).

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A Bulk Water Transfer of approximately 67GL is planned to be undertaken from Split Rock to Keepit

Dam in January 2018 if conditions remain dry. A customer and community meeting was held in the

second week in August in Manilla, and further meetings will be scheduled over the coming months.

Planned Supply Interruptions No supply interruptions envisaged.

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Split Rock - forecast storage volumeActual Minimum 99% COE DRY 80% COE Median 50% COE WET 20% COE

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Keepit forecast storage volume

Actual Minimum 99% COE DRY 80% COE Median 50% COE WET 20% COE

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Gwydir Valley Storage Status

Copeton Dam is at 52%

Predicted Release Patterns Environmental delivery of 10GL commenced Friday 25th August and is complete, flows are passing end

of system into the Barwon.

Releases from Copeton are expected to be ongoing will small volumes of demand until early to mid

October when demand is expected to increase.

Operating Conditions Dam Spill Likelihood: Based on historical inflow conditions there is less than a 5% chance of Copeton

Dam spilling by December. BoM is forecasting a 50 to 60% probability of above median rainfall in the

catchment over the next three months.


Annual weir maintenance has been completed for all sites except Tareelaroi over the winter months.

The iSMART upgrade work will restrict weir operations during the cutover, though there is not expected

to be any supply issues to customers.

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Chaffey Dam - forecast storage volumeactual Minimum 99% COE DRY 80% COE Median 50% COE WET 20% COE

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Border Rivers Storage Status

Pindari Dam is at 98% and Glenlyon at 74%.

Predicted Release Patterns No significant irrigation releases are anticipated to be required until November 2017 due to the amount

of water on-farm.

The stimulus flow begun 21 August 2017, a total of 8.4GL is now at steady base flows of 50ML/day.

Operating Conditions Hydro station utilisation continues to be maximised at Pindari Dam.

On-farm storages are quite full with high levels of supplementary access and overland flow throughout

April 2017.

Catchment conditions are drying rapidly.

Releases from Glenlyon to meet small users demand in the Dumaresq to the junction have begun.

Some small volumes of general security water are being taken as customers seek to manage quite full

accounts.

Planned Supply Interruptions No works that may impact supply are currently planned.

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Actual Minimum 99% COE DRY 80% COE

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Glenlyon forecast storage volumeActual Minimum 99% COE DRY 80% COE Median 50% COE WET 20% COE

Page 16 of 19

Bega River Storage Status

Brogo Dam is at 95.4%.


Small releases in order of 40ML/d.


Demand is expected to gradually increase in line with warming temperatures and dry conditions.

Hunter Valley Storage Status

Glenbawn Dam is at 86.6 %, while Glennies Creek Dam is at 81%, and Lostock Dam is 96.7% of active capacity.


Releases at Glenbawn Dam are approximately 200 ML/d.

Glennies Creek Dam is releasing 140 ML/d.

Lostock Dam is releasing approximately 50ML/d.


Low river levels are currently being experienced in the Patterson, release changes made late last week should be moving through the system and improve current river levels.

Demand has stabilised until AGL commence extractions.

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Brogo Dam - Forecast Storage Levels Minimum annual percentile inflows from 1 September

2017

Actual 80th% 50th% 20th% Drought 90%

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Dam Spill Likelihood: Based on historical inflow conditions there is a 20% chance of Hunter Dams spilling by May. However, BoM is forecasting an average probability of median rainfall in the catchment.


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Hunter Dams - Forecast Storage Levels Minimum annual percentile inflows from 1 September 2017


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Lostock Dam - Forecast Storage Level Minimum annual percentile inflows from 1 September 2017


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Toonumbar Dam Storage Status

Toonumbar Dam 98.7%.


Passing 22 ML/day. Regulated flow conditions


Regulated flow conditions, maintain releases at current levels.

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Toonumbar Dam- Forecast Storage Level Minimum annual percentile inflows from 1 September 2017


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Water NSW – Dam Levels The following table shows the current status of water supplies at 11 September 2017

1 Gigalitre (GL) = 1,000 Megalitres (ML) 1 ML = 1,000,000 litres

Rural Water Supply Weekly updates: Urban Water Supply Updates: http://www.waternsw.com.au/supply/dam-levels/greater-sydneys-dam-levels

River Valley

Capacity

Current Status

Weekly change

(GL)

Comments

Likelihood

Allocations for 2017/18

Storage Dam, Nearest Town

(GL)

% of

active capacity

Active (GL)

Supply Issues

of fill and spill

High

Security

General Security

Carry-over @ 1/7/17

Border Rivers 100% 11% 90%

Glenlyon Dam, Stanthorpe Qld 254 73% 186 -1 Low regulated release commenced

Pindari Dam, Inverell 312 98% 304 -0 Regulated releases for stimulus flows 100%

Gwydir Valley

Copeton Dam, Inverell 1 343 52% 701 -2 Low regulated releases <5% 100% 11.5% 60%

Increase in AWD of .0057

Namoi Valley

Keepit Dam, Gunnedah 419 68% 285 -1 20% 100% 7% 80%

Split Rock Dam, Manilla 394 30% 119 -1 <5% 100% 100% N/A

Chaffey Dam, Tamworth 100 94% 94 -0 Regulated releases 50% 100% 100% N/A

Macquarie Valley

Burrendong Dam, Wellington 1 154 79% 916 -14 Environmental and irrigation deliveries 20% 100% 38% 73%

Windamere Dam, Mudgee 367 49% 178 -1 <5% 100% 38% 137%

Oberon Dam, Oberon 45 84% 38 -0 100%

Lachlan Valley

Wyangala Dam, Cowra 1 219 87% 1 057 -9 Delivering irrigation demand 25% 100% 2% 108%

Carcoar Dam, Carcoar 36 91% 33 -0 100% 0% 95%

Murrumbidgee Valley 95% 29% 27%

Burrinjuck Dam, Yass 1 023 60% 612 10 Transparency / Translucency releases 35%

Blowering Dam, Tumut 1 607 83% 1 330 2 Regulated releases 35%

Murray Valley Irrigation / environmental releases 97% 20% 41%

Dartmouth, Mitta Mitta (Vic) 3 817 81% 3 093 21

Hume Dam, Albury 3 036 89% 2 712 15 50%

Lower Darling 100% 100% 77%

Menindee Lakes, Broken Hill 1 582 36% 705 -7 Irrigation / Environmental deliveries N/A

Hunter Valley 100% 100% 28%

Glenbawn Dam, Scone 750 88% 657 0 Regulated releases 20% 100% 100%

Glennies Ck Dam, Singleton 282 83% 235 0 Regulated releases 20% 100% 100%

Lostock Dam, Gresford 20 97% 19 -0 Regulated releases 100% 100% 100% N/A

Coastal Area

Toonumbar Dam, Kyogle 11 99% 11 -0 Regulated Releases 100% 100% 100% N/A

Brogo Dam, Bega 9 95% 8 -0 Regulated Releases 100% 100% 45% N/A

TOTALS 17 780 75.0% 13 329 11

: NSW has water resources in Dartmouth, Hume and Glenlyon Dams. TWS = Town Water Supplies

http://www.waternsw.com.au/supply/dam-levels/greater-sydneys-dam-levels

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