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FROM THE HIMALAYAS
TO THE DELTAS
स्वयंप्रभा दासSwayamprabha Das
Fulbright Hubert Humphrey Fellow
THE HIMALAYAS: A DYNAMIC &
FRAGILE ECOSYSTEM
The Himalayas feed ten of Asia’s largest rivers
and contain the largest store of freshwater
outside the polar ice caps, resources on which
the livelihoods of more than 1.3 billion people
depend.
• Biodiversity hotspot: areas of diversity and endemicity for plants,
birds and amphibians
• Mountain communities are marginalised, with little access to
urban resources and limited agricultural land
• Language diversity in mountains is high, and threatened
languages are common in mountain regions
• Ecosystem services: mountains influence rainfall
patterns and mountain forests prevent erosion &
flood
2
MOUNTAINS UNDER THREAT
Seven pressure variables
Mountain glaciers melt
Deforestation & land
degradation
Habitat loss and degradation
Unsuitable agriculture
Infrastructure development
Forest fires
Earthquake hazard
3
CLIMATE CHANGE & WATER RESOURCES
Stresses- changes in regional rainfall patterns, precipitation in higher altitudes as rain, glacier melt
Shocks – extreme events become more likely, salinisation of ground water
(Source: Stern Review: Economics of Climate Change)
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UNCERTAINITY
of magnitude;
location and timing
of effects
Some of the possible identified implications
of climate change on water resources
Decline in the glaciers and the
snowfields in the Himalayas;
Increased drought like situations
due to overall decrease in the number
of rainy days over a major part of the
country;
Increased flood events due to
overall increase in the rainy day
intensity;
Effect on groundwater quality in
alluvial aquifers due to increased flood
and drought events;
Source: NATIONAL WATER MISSION
under National Action Plan on Climate Change
THE MELTING GLACIERS:
IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES
5
River runoff will initially increase in winter or spring but will eventually decrease as a result of loss of ice resources
Decreases in snow accumulation and glacial retreat - lead to acute water shortages in the future. Drinking water shortage (a billion
people approx. in the HKH region)
Unfavourable for downstream agriculture & fisheries
Integrated Approach
Watershed management
River Basin management
Wetlands management
Land
management
RESPONDING TO CHANGES
Human responses-
Understanding the changes – awareness
Building resilience of the communities
Securing livelihoods
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Ecosystem responses-
1. Freshwater: changes in
organism abundance and
productivity, range expansions,
and phenological shifts
(including earlier fish
migrations) that are linked to
rising temperatures.
2. Forests: shifting the timing of
life-cycle events (e.g.,
blooming, migrating); shifting
range boundaries (e.g., moving
poleward) or the changing
morphology (e.g., body or egg
size); reproduction or genetics;
extirpation or extinction
As the WATER flows:
the downstream effects
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Changes will be observed in the following areas:
Flood plains- rich agricultural lands (granary)
Fisheries
Dams and irrigation canals
Tourism
Biodiversity – species of fishes, fresh water dolphins, crocodiles, turtles, birds, etc
Coastal & Marine ecosystems:
changes in phenology and distribution: risingwater temperatures, changes in salinity, oxygenlevels and circulation
IMPACTING LIVELIHOODS of the coastalcommunities living near the river deltas
VISIBLE IMPACTS- INDIA
1998Dokriani Barnak
Glaicer retreated
20m & Gangotri
Glacier ~ 30m.
Glacial retreat
If the present trend continues, then over the
next 25 years, the Ganga could initially swell in
volume because of increased melting but then
dry out as the water supply in the mountains
runs low. This will endanger the lives of about
400 million people who live in the river's plains
and depend upon it for their supply of water.
(IPCC,Third Assessment Report, 2001)
High AltitudeWetlands:
Ladakh many obvious changes in the
regional climate of the area have
already been observed. Some of
these changes are:
• Changes in rainfall pattern.
• Receding glaciers in the region.
• Rising level of glacial lakes such
asTsomoriri andYayaTso.
• Unusual floods in July 2005 and
August 2006
(WWF Report)
Source: earth observatory.nasa.gov
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Delta Ecosystem
impacted by the flow of
fresh waters
• Fisheries: Eg. Hilsa
(Tenualosa ilisha)
• Mangrove Forests
POLICY Initiatives - India
9
National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), 2008
o National Mission for Sustaining theHimalayan Ecosystem: The plan aims toconserve biodiversity, forest cover, and otherecological values in the Himalayan region,where glaciers that are a major source ofIndia’s water supply are projected to recede asa result of global warming.
o National Water Mission: With waterscarcity projected to worsen as a result ofclimate change, the plan sets a goal of a 20%improvement in water use efficiency throughpricing and other measures.
Himalayan Chief
Ministers’ Conclave
(30 Sept 2009, Shimla) -
next is planned to be held
in Dehradun, 2011
State Action Plan on Climate Change
RIVER BASIN OF THE HINDU KUSH
HIMALAYAS
10
International Water (in)Security: South Asia
International water security issues within Asia could be likely since
the waters of the Indus, Ganges and the Brahmaputra basins
flow into China in the upstream, and are shared across South Asia
in the downstream
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Five countries, India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, and China
are considered riparian neighbors of this huge basin.
WATER DIPLOMACY IN SOUTH ASIA
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India- Pakistan: Indus WaterTreaty 1960
India-Bangladesh: sharing of the Ganga waters specially in lean period
Treaty 1977, replaced by MoU -1982 (lasted till 1988)
Ganga Water SharingTreaty (Dec 1996)
(manage the water between the two countries during the dry season)
Farakka Barrage
o Tipaimukh dam (Manipur)
o Teesta dam (Sikkim)
India- Nepal: Flood management & Hydro power generation
Kosi Agreement, 1954 (Regulate flow of river & ensure flood management)
MahakaliTreaty, June 1997
Kosi Barrage – floods of 2008
o Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project (Joint Group of Experts (JGE)
constituted in 1978)
* Joint River Commission- no independent power to formulate
& implement solutions
THE WAY FORWARD…
Need to reduce scientific uncertainty- regular monitoring of glaciers –
a Joint Commission of Experts from the Himalayan realm countries
Investment in natural barriers /infrastructures
Land and water management
Setting up of a common ‘Knowledge sharing mechanism’
Adaptation and mitigation measures for potential glacial lakes
Reduce risk from seasonal and flash floods
Trans-boundary dialogue on water sharing at the government level needs to include:
Payment for Ecosystem Services
Water (use) Equity
Maintaining minimum Environmental Flows
Gender
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R. Brahmaputra
Regional co-operation in
water resource
management - new
heights!
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अप्सस्वन्तार्म्रित्मप्ससू भेषजं IWater is the elixir of life, water has
medicinal value. (4/4 Atharvaveda)