Water, climate change adaptation and human security:
Examples from Vietnam and the Mediterranean, Middle East and the Sahel
Fabrice Renaud, Julia Kloos, Zita Sebesvari
United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security
ASEAN-EU STI DaysWorkshop on Climate Change and Water Resources:Knowledge Gaps and Research NeedsBangkok 21-23 Jan 2014
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Introduction
Climate change
Water security will be compromised by the consequences of climate change, as the vast majority of its impacts will be on the water cycle, resulting in higher climatic and hydrological variability, with important consequences for societies
UN-Water (2013): Water security and the global water agenda
Climate change is not necessarily the biggest driver of [water] scarcity even in the most vulnerable regions
UNU-INWEH et al (2013): Catalyzing water for sustainable development and growth
Water is the primary medium through which climate change influences Earth’s ecosystem and thus the livelihood and well-being of societies
UN-Water (2010): Climate change adaptation: the pivotal role of water
Climate Change, Human Security and Conflicts
Climate change is a threat to human security (Ban Ki-moon 2011)
Lack of empirical studies explaining proposed link between climate and conflicts (Salehyan 2008, Nordas & Gleditsch 2007)
Need more in-depth empirical security-oriented vulnerability research (Barnett and Adger 2007)
Social dimension of climate change
No nation, however large or small, wealthy or poor, can escape the impact of climate change. Rising sea levels threaten every coastline. More powerful storms and floods threaten every continent. More frequent drought and crop failures breed hunger and conflict in places where hunger and conflict already thrive. The security and stability of each nation and all peoples -- our prosperity, our health, our safety -- are in jeopardy.
U.S. President Barack Obama, 2009
No nation, however large or small, wealthy or poor, can escape the impact of climate change. Rising sea levels threaten every coastline. More powerful storms and floods threaten every continent. More frequent drought and crop failures breed hunger and conflict in places where hunger and conflict already thrive. The security and stability of each nation and all peoples -- our prosperity, our health, our safety -- are in jeopardy.
U.S. President Barack Obama, 2009
Climate change
Impacts on society
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CLICO project
CLICO project• FP7 SSH research project• Jan 2010-Dec 2012• 11 case studies and 14 partners
A comprehensive regional assessment of the Climate-Water-Security-Nexus in the Mediterranean, Middle East, and Sahel
Do hydro-climatic hazards such as droughts and floods exacerbate social tensions, intra- and inter-state conflicts in the Mediterranean, Middle East and Sahel, or do they catalyze cooperation and peace?
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Theoretical background & conceptual framework
(Goulden and Porter, 2012)
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Drivers of human (in-)security and vulnerability
Climate change as an additional threat to human security
Existing tensions and competition more likely to be intensified, but depends on migitation measures and conflict resolution (Gerstetter et al. 2012a).
Social marginalization can worsen vulnerability to climate stress (Turhan 2012; Milman and Arsano 2012)).
Stifling of political debates to avoid potential conflicts can also increase vulnerabilities in the long run (D‘Alisa 2012b).
Political economy shapes socio-political insecurities.
Do not oversimplify these relations (Zografos et al. 2012). Assess and address the root causes of vulnerability and insecurity depending on the context.
Role of adaptation in human security
• Adaptive capacity of individuals, groups or nations varies depending on existing institutions and their functionality, knowledge, access to assets, preferences etc.
• Many CLICO case studies have shown how adaptation processes (individuals/groups or governed/led by the State) can both reduce or increase human insecurity and can reinforce (in)equality (Divergent adaptation (Snorek et al. 2012), Mal-adaptation (see Milman and Arsano 2012).
Adaptation can increase vulnerability and decrease human security
(c) E.Turhan
Advance knowledge management, sharing and transfer. Use different source of data and methods. Strengthen research capacity to understand, monitor and assess impacts from adaptation.
Climate change and conflict
• Diverse forms of water-related conflicts.• Violent domestic water conflicts are extremely rare (Bernauer et
al. 2012) .
• Most case studies and the large N study point towards stronger links with political, economic and social factors than with climate-related variables (Bernauer et al. 2012).
• Shared waters are more often a reason for cooperation than conflict
• Conflicts may play out over water (e.g. Israel-Palestine, Sudan)
More cooperative water-related events than conflictive ones
Foster strong institutions, democratic and politically stable states, improve coordination and adopt conflict resolution mechanisms at different scales.
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WISDOM Project
Slide 9
Visit website at:
www.wisdom.caf.dlr.de/en
WISDOM
Information
system
Knowledge management
Early warning
Socio-Economic
studies
Ecology, habitat
analyses
Water quality, pollution
Land-use change
Remote Sensing,
GIS
Vulnerability analyses
Hydrologic modelling
Information system to support regional planning activities
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Mekong Delta - Vietnam
39,000 km218 million inhabitants
2/3 used for agriculture
Supplies:50% of staple food50% fisheries60% fruit production
Image/Sensor: MODIS
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Some social & economic characteristics
Some restrictions in terms of agricultural production:Governmental control over rice production
Lack of land tenure
Limited access to capital
Limited direct access to markets
Price fluctuations (inputs and outputs)
Reduction in poverty rate (23% in 2002 to 12% in 2008), but high disparities remain
Lags behind on many socio-economic indicators related to housing, access to water and sanitation, health care, education, etc.
Garschagen et al (2012): Socio-economic development in the Mekong Delta: Between the prospects for progress and the realm of reality. In Renaud and Kuenzer (eds), The Mekong Delta System. Interdisciplinary Analyses of a River Delta, Springer, pp83-132.
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Pressure from upstream
Slide 12
Source: Kuenzer et al (2012): Understanding the impact of hydropower developments in the context of upstream–downstream relations in the Mekong river basin. Sustainability Science DOI 10.1007/s11625-012-0195-z
Climate Change:• More extreme events• Dams playing a more significant role
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Pressure from downstream
Source: Carew-Reid (2008): Rapid assessment of the extent and impact of sea level rise in Viet Nam. ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Management
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Case Study – Ben Tre
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Agroecosystems in Ben Tre
Rice System
Rice – Prawn System
Photo: UNU-EHS/Huong
Intensive Shrimp System
Photo: UNU-EHS/Huong
Photo: UNU-EHS/Huong
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Differences between Agroecosystems
Rice System Rice – extensive shrimp System
Intensive Shrimp System
Freshwater
Protected by system of dyke and sluice gate
Low investment
Low return
Low ability to invest
Low risk
Freshwater and saline water
No protection against salinity
Medium inverstment
Low/Medium return
Some ability to invest
Low risk
Saline water
No protection against salinity
High investment
High return
High ability to invest
High risk
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Important Policies Shaping Land-Use Changes
Results from Focus Group Discussions , Household and expert interviews
Policy Reference ImpactEstablishment of new economic regions
QD 95 CP (1980) and QD 254-CP (1981)
• Promoting reclamation of mountainous and coastal areas for agriculture production • Increase agriculture land
Land law; Resolution 10
Land law (1988);10/NQ-TU (1988)
• Renovation on agriculture land and production management• Resulted in rapid expansion of agriculture land in the MD
Promoting economic development in the sea in the direction of industrialization and modernization
Directive 20-CT/TW (1997) • Large areas of land and surface water were converted to intensive aquaculture production
Guidelines and policies on economic restructuring and consumption of agricultural products
09/2000/NQ-CP (2000) • Big government investment in infrastructure, thus agri/aquaculture areas increased rapidly
Development and Protection Program of Aquatic Resources
Decision 131/2004/QD-TTg (2004)
•Areas of aquaculture continued to expand
Vietnam Sea Strategy up to 2020 Decree 09-NQ/TW (2007) • Aquaculture area continued to expandResolution on National Food Security
63/NQ-CP (2009) • Areas for rice production should be strictly protected, especially land under two rice crops
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Potential adaptation to salinity intrusion
Slide 18
http://wwf.panda.org
Huong/UNU-EHS (2011)
Huong/UNU-EHS (2011)
Huong/UNU-EHS (2011)Renaud/UNU-EHS (2013)
Low flows and Salinity intrusion
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Advantages and shortcomings of selected approaches to
address salinity intrusion – Case of Ben Tre Province
Options Effects on agroecosystems
Environmental externalities
Potential social consequences
Contribution to resilience
Infrastructure development
Rice-based systems can be maintained or intensified
Generation of pollution within and outside the protected system
In the absence of crop rotation, increasing use of agrichemicals
Effect on sediments and discharge
Could result in a poverty trap for some rice farmers if no diversification is possible
Social tensions
Little diversification so fragile system in case of severe pestoutbreaks or failure to control salinity
Loss of capacity to adapt toother environmental changes if remain with one productionsystem
Ecosystem-basedapproaches
Some land wouldneed to be convertedback to naturalvegetation
Increase inbiodiversity
No direct externalities Some farms wouldneed to be relocated
Resilience would beincreased as thebuffering effect wouldlimit the chances ofdamages along thecoast and furtherinland
River flowregulation
Current agro-ecosystems canbe maintained
Reduction in extent of brackish watersystems
Important externalitiesin areas directlyaffected by dam construction
Alteration of sediment and nutrient flows
Reduced stress onagricultural systemwould be beneficialas long as this isaccompanied bylivelihooddiversification
Resilience couldincrease but for themost part the regionwould be dependenton decisions takenupstream
Source: Renaud et al (submitted): Resilience and shifts in agro-ecosystems facing increasing sea-level rise and salinity intrusion in Ben Tre Province, Mekong Delta
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Advantages and shortcomings of selected approaches to
address salinity intrusion – Case of Ben Tre Province
Options Effects on agroecosystems
Environmental externalities
Potential social consequences
Contribution to resilience
Agronomicapproaches
Short cycle varieties would prove very useful. Development of further rice salinity tolerant varieties could be outpaced by increased salinity intrusion
No direct externalities
Preserve currentsystem in short termbut failure of systemin the longer term ispossible
Adapting rice to salinity without further crop diversification, salinity will compromise rice production eventually
Shifts inAgro-ecosystems
Diversification of production systems is a good short-term solution. Improved water management practice needed Possibly abandon rice production in all regions in the longer term
Increase in salinity intrusion furtherinland
Can allow to develop livelihoods adapted to both water systems, leading to diversification of agricultural production.
Adapted system
Increased resilience as agricultural systems adapted to the environmentalcircumstances
More opportunities to innovate would exist
Source: Renaud et al (submitted): Resilience and shifts in agro-ecosystems facing increasing sea-level rise and salinity intrusion in Ben Tre Province, Mekong Delta
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Diversified systems vs. Intensified systems
F. Renaud/UNU-EHS (2011)
F. Renaud/UNU-EHS (2013)
F. Renaud/UNU-EHS (2013)
F. Renaud/UNU-EHS (2013)
F. Renaud/UNU-EHS (2013)
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Outlook
Flexible institutions dealing with land use planning and agricultural production. Better cooperation between government agencies and hierarchies
Opportunity for innovation should be enhanced. Provide more freedom of choice to farmers. More complex systems might prove more resilient
For the poorer farmers:Compensation (payments for ecosystem services when dealing with coastal vegetation)
Low interest loan or crop insurance
Capacity development is crucial
Slide 22Source: Renaud et al (submitted): Resilience and shifts in agro-ecosystems facing increasing sea-level rise and salinity intrusion in Ben Tre Province, Mekong Delta
Water Pollution in the Mekong DeltaPesticide use & management
Pesticide use: more than 50 active ingredients; moderately and slightly hazardous pesticides (WHO class II & III)
Application dose: higher or equal to recommended dose
Lack of personal protective equipment during application
Treatment of leftover pesticide solution in the sprayers
Tam Nong Cai Rang
PhD Research of Dr Pham Van Toan
Pesticide Pollution
Source: Toan, PV et al (2013): Pesticide management and their residues in sediments and surface and drinking water in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Science of the Total Environment 452-453:28-39
Residue concentrations at pumping stations
T R ( n = 1 1 )S T ( n = 1 1 )C T P S ( n = 1 1 )O M P S ( n = 1 1 )T S P S ( n = 1 0 )
1 6
1 4
1 2
1 0
8
6
4
2
0
9 5 % C I f o r t h e M e a n
(p < 0.05)
µg/L
PhD
Res
earc
h of
Ms
Ngu
yen
Dan
g G
iang
C
hau
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E.coli
PhD Research of Mr Gert-Jan Wilbers
Harvested rainwater quality
• 78 samples; 96% exceeds drinking water guidelines
• Contaminated with lead (Pb) from roofs
• Storage conditions and behavioral factors cause E.coli pollution
Typical storage system for drinking water in rural areas of Mekong Delta (Source: own picture)
Wilbers et al (2013): Effects of local and spatial conditions on the quality of harvested rainwater in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Environmental Pollution 182:225-232
Applied household treatment
• People store and treat before drinking
Conclusions
• Water resources globally are already under threat and CC will be a threat multiplier affecting water resources in many different ways, affecting people, their livelihoods as well as economic development
• The impacts of CC on water resources needs to be address not from a “water sector” perspective, but from a development perspective whereby adaptation is integrated in development planning
• This implies addressing water-related concerns at multiple scales of governance as well as multiple spatial scales
THANK YOU!
UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environmentand Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Platz der Vereinten Nationen 153113 Bonn, Germany
e-mail: [email protected]