MohamedNasrAllamProfessor and Head of the Irrigation and Drainage Department, Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, and GamalIbrahimAllamProfessor, National
Water Research Center, Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation
Abstract: Water is one of the most important inputs for economic development. As the demand increases, so too does the importance of water. This is clearly the case in Egypt, where rainfall is rare and the governmentally enforced quota for withdrawal from the Nile River has not changed since 1959. The water demand has multiplied as a result of population growth, agricultural expansion, as well as industrial development and a rise in the standard of living. In this paper, a vision for the future water status in Egypt is presented. This vision is based on a perception of the current status of the available water resources. The water uses, the water use efficiency, the institutional and legislative frameworks of water management, and the strategies and policies to rationalize water use and to augment water supply are discussed. The local, regional and international governing and controlling factors of water utilization and management in Egypt are also analyzed and discussed. Three future water scenarios for year 2020, each reflecting alternate programs to develop the water systems and to rationalize the water uses, are presented. All scenarios showed that Egypt will suffer considerable water shortages in the near future. Recommendations to help overcome anticipated water challenges and to optimize the available opportunities are provided.
INTRODUCTION
Water reso�rces in Eg��pt are con��ned to the�ithdra�alq�ota��romthe�ile�ater;thelimitedamo�nto�� rain��all; the shallo� and rene�able gro�nd�aterreservoirs in the �ile Valle��, the �ile �elta and thecoastalstrip;andthedeepgro�nd�ater in theeasterndesert, the western desert and S�na�, wh�ch are almost non�renewable. The non�trad�t�onal water resources �nclude reuse of agr�cultural dra�nage water and treated wastewater, as well as the desal�nat�on of seawater and brack�sh groundwater.
Agr�culture �n Egypt, as �n most develop�ng countr�es, represents the ma�n usage of water, followed, but w�th a large marg�n, by the res�dent�al, �ndustr�al and tour�st uses. It �s worth ment�on�ng that these sectors are
users as well as consumers of water, wh�le other sectors l�ke r�ver transport and hydropower generat�on only use water w�thout real consumpt�on. Most data ava�lable on water uses �n Egypt are approx�mate and are not based on��eldmeas�rement, beca�se there is nomeas�ringdev�ces w�th accepted accuracy for the water uses for e�ther �rr�gat�on or the mun�c�pal and �ndustr�al sectors. In th�s art�cle, however, the data are checked, rev�sed and also analyzed, and the best data that are cons�stent �ith thescienti��cestimateso�� thedi����erent�ses,and�n agreement w�th the ava�lable few measurements, are selected.
There �s a real problem that needs to be addressed, analyzed and resolved. Egypt has very l�m�ted, mostly �mported, water resources and yet prepares very opt�m�st�c developmental plans. Indeed,
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many governmental programs have been �n�t�ated or planned to rat�onal�ze water uses and �ncrease the�r econom�c return. In th�s paper, the d�fferent water uses, as well as the ex�st�ng and planned water conservat�on programs, are presented and d�scussed. Then, a proposal for future scenar�os �s �ntroduced. Based on the results of these scenar�os, the r�sks and opportun�t�es are presented �n order to fac�l�tate the dec�s�on�mak�ng process.
REVIEW OF WATER RESOURCES POLICIESANDPLANSINEGYPT
�n1929,anagreementbet�eenEg��ptand theUnitedKingdom, on behal�� o�� S�dan,�as signed torat�fy the h�stor�cal N�le water r�ghts for each country. The recorded water r�ghts were 48 b�ll�on cub�c metersb�ll�on cub�c meters (B��M)��orEg��ptand��o�rB��M��orS�dan.
�n 1933, the Government o�� Eg��pt (GoE)implemented a�ater polic��designed tobene��t ��romthe extra storage of the N�le water upstream from the old Aswan reservo�r after �ts second elevat�on. That polic�� aimed at c�ltivating additional 160,000 ha in�ower Egypt and convert�ng 208,000 ha from bas�n to permanent �rr�gat�on, along w�th the establ�shment of publ�c open dra�ns �n the permanent �rr�gat�on areas. �n1948,GoEpresentedamemorand�mtothecabinetsho�ing that a��ter 1950 there �o�ld be a pressingneed to��ndextra�ater reso�rces.Thememorand�mrecommendedseveralUpper�ileprojects to increasetheriver��o�andtoavoid��oodhazards.A��terthe1952�evol�tion,theHighAs�an�am(HA�)project�aspresented to the Government and �as approved. �tsconstruct�on was planned for �ns�de Egypt, as compared tothe�pper�ileprojects.
�n1959,anagreementbet�eenEg��ptandS�danhad been reached for the opt�mal use of N�le Water as anintegralparto��1929agreement. Accordingtotheagreement, the q�ota ��or Eg��pt and S�dan had beenincreasedb��7.5and14.5B��M, respectivel��. Thesevalues were calculated accord�ng to the mean annual nat�ral�ile��o�atAs�an,Eg��pt,��romtherecordedin��o�s ��or 70 consec�tive ��ears, i.e. 84 B��M/��ear.Moreover,it�asrecommendedtotraptheUpper�ile
�aterlossesandoptimall���tilizethoselossesineq�alshares. Thene�q�otaallo�edEg��pt to increase itscult�vated area to reach 2.4 m�ll�on ha.
�n 1975, the Ministr�� o�� �rrigation (M�)establ�shed a pol�cy a�med at rebalanc�ng the water status. Rebalanc�ng was proposed through the rat�onal�zat�on of crop water appl�cat�ons, �n l�ght of st�diesand��eldexperiments.Theadditionaldemands�ere to be satis��ed b�� the re�se o�� drainage �ater,expans�on of groundwater ut�l�zat�on espec�ally �n the �ile�eltaregionandtheoptimal�seo��rain��allonthenorthern coast.
�n1977,M�beganpreparingthe�ationalWaterMasterPlan(�WMP)incollaboration�iththeGerman�evelopment Bank (KFW) and U��P. The �WMPa�med at sett�ng plans to sat�sfy water demands over a period o�� 20 ��ears (1980–2000). �n 1982,M� reset�ts water pol�cy accord�ng to the results of the NMWP. Thene�polic��sho�edthat11.7B��Mo��extra�aterwas needed to sat�sfy future water demands. The pol�cy showed that th�s add�t�onal water could be secured thro�ghEg��pt�sshareinthe��rstphaseo��theJongliecanal (2.0B��M/��ear),�hich�as designed to trap asmall port�on of N�le water losses �n the Sudd reg�on, so�th�esto��S�dan.Ultimatel��,thisplan�asintendedtoincreasegro�nd�ater�tilization�pto4.9B��M/��earandtoexpanddrainage�aterre�sepractices�pto10B��M/��ear.
�n 1994, Ministr�� o�� Water �eso�rces and�rrigation(MW��)andtheGeneralA�thorit����orLandReclamat�on prepared a comprehens�ve and amb�t�ous plan �ntended to expand the country�s agr�cultural horizonb��1.28million�p to��ear2025.This�o�ldbeachievableb��limitingthericeareato280,000ha;improvings�r��ace irrigationprojects;maximizing thedra�nage water reuse, treated wastewater recycl�ng, and opt�m�z�ng groundwater ut�l�zat�on, as well as the completiono��the��rstphaseo��theJongliecanal.
�n October 1997, MW�� prepared a dra��t o��‘Water�eso�rcesStrateg��o��Eg��ptUntil2017.�Thestrateg�� also anal��zed the projected�ater balance in��ear2017��orthreescenarios:the��rstis��orreclaiming
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612,000ha,thesecondis��orreclaiming0.9millionha,andthethird��orreclaiming1.36millionha.Sec�ringthe req�ired extra �ater (abo�t 24 B��M) �as to beaccomplishedthro�ghthecompletiono��the��rstphaseof Jongl�e canal, an �ncrease of groundwater ut�l�zat�on, water reuse pract�ces, and a reduct�on of the areas of high�aterreq�irementcrops(MW��,1997).
WATERCONSERVATIONANDMANAGEMENTPRACTICES
Since the 1970�s, �ater �ses in Eg��pt haveexceeded the ava�lable resources. Accord�ngly, the government has prov�ded add�t�onal resources by recycl�ng dra�nage and wastewater, trapp�ng water losses, and w�th water use rat�onal�zat�on pract�ces. At present, mun�c�pal and �ndustr�al uses �nvolve many negat�ve aspects. These �nclude h�gh losses �n thedistrib�tionnet�orks;the��alsoincl�dethe�seo��clean dr�nk�ng water �n small factor�es, workshops, car wash, and �n �rr�gat�ng backyards and publ�c gardens. Other �rrat�onal uses �nclude the absence of long�term technicalor��nancialplans��orpreventivemaintenance;andinadeq�atetari����polic��.M�nicipal�aterdistrib�tionnetworks �n Egypt have w�tnessed great expans�ons dur�ng the last three decades �n order to cope w�th the rapid �rbanization projects and increased pop�lation.�n ind�str��, severalactionsare req�ired to rationalizewater uses.
The �rrigation �mprovement Project (��P)�n Egypt was started due to the �mpetus of a lead�ng research project exec�ted b�� the �ational Water�esearch��enter (�W���) in 1977-1984.The projectexam�ned var�ous alternat�ves capable of �mprov�ng the on farm water management pract�ces, �nclud�ng laser land leveling, developing mesqa (tertiar�� canal) andwater d�str�but�on structures, and form�ng water users associations (WUAs). This project provided severalbene��ts. Firstl��, it �as responsible ��or land savingd�etotheconstr�ctiono��theimprovedmesqa.�t�as��o�ndthat2%o��thetotalcommandareao��themesqaco�ldbesaved��oragric�lt�re.Thesecondbene��t�asthe �ncrease �n crop y�eld due to the better cond�t�ons o���ateravailabilit��. Thethirdis theeq�it��o���aterd�str�but�on by �mprov�ng the water allocat�on between
The��ndingso��thatresearchproject�erethen�sed in a large improvement program (1984-1996)implementedb��MW��onanareao��156,000hain��veGovernorates.Anotherirrigationimprovementprojectstartedin1997overanareao��100,000ha.Theirrigationanddrainagela��o.12��orthe��ear1984�asamendedto recover the relevant �mprovement cost from farmers at �nstallments over twenty years w�thout �nterest. There�erealsopilotprojects toestablish��ederationso��WUA�s and to ��orm �ater boards to take part inOperationandMaintenance(O&M)o��branchcanals.On the one hand, the var�ous �rr�gat�on �mprovement projectshave severalpositive impacts (Allam,1995).Ontheotherhand,there�erevario�sdi����c�ltiesliketheslow rate of �mplementat�on, h�gh cost of �mprovement (abo�tL.E3,500/ha),�eakmonitoringand��ollo��pprograms, and fund�ng problems for the pump�ng un�ts ��ortheraisedmesqa(MW��,1998).
The government has �mposed modern �rr�gat�on methods on ��armers in the ne� lands. ��e to therelat�vely h�gh ma�ntenance costs, farmers removed dr�ppers or sprays and thus converted modern �rr�gat�on methods �nto surface �rr�gat�on. The government �s plann�ng to sw�tch the orchards and other fru�ts farms intodripirrigationtosaveabo�t0.75B��M/��ear.Thema�n obstacle that faces th�s program �s prov�d�ng the funds needed for modern�zat�on, as farmers have no signi��cant incentive to share the cost as long as thegovernmentprovides their�ater req�irements ��reeo��charge.
Thehigh�aterreq�irementscropsaremainl��sugarcane, banana and r�ce. Sugarcane �s cult�vated inUpperEg��pt�ithatotalareao��lessthan200,000ha. Although one ha of sugarcane consumes tr�ple the amo�nto���aterreq�ired��oronehao��s�garbeets,itisdi����c�lttoconverts�garcaneagric�lt�reintos�garbeets. F�rstly, because most of the ex�st�ng sugar m�lls are sugarcane m�lls. Secondly, sugar beet �s a w�nter crop and may not be su�table for the relat�vely hot cl�mate o��UpperEg��pt.Thesol�tionma��betheimprovement
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of the �rr�gat�on methods for sugarcane to decrease the losses, as well as a gradual reduct�on of sugarcane areas. The r�ce crop also presents a real problem for �rr�gat�on eng�neers. In l�ght of the deregulat�on of the pr�ces of crops, r�ce became one of the most �mportant lucrat�ve crops for farmers. Its grown areas gradually �ncreased from about 280,000 ha by the m�d�70�s to about 0.8 m�ll�on ha �n 2000. R�ce has become one of the most �mportant Egypt�an exports �n the agr�cultural sector. The real �ntent�ons of the government towards th�s crop are not yet clear. The banana farms, on the other hand, consume a lot of water. Most of the banana farms are �n the newly recla�med lands w�th sandy so�ls. No act�on has been yet taken to prevent or control these farms.
WATERSTATUSINYEAR2000
Table 1 sho�s that in ��ear 2000, there�as abalance between water uses and ava�lable resources (Allam,2001).Toeval�atethee����cienc��o��theirrigation�aters��stem,��g�re(1)sho�sasimpli��eddiagramo��thes��stem.Assho�ninthe��g�re,thetotallosseso��the�aters��stem,evaporationando�t��o�,�ereabo�t16.25B��M.Thelosses�ere29%o��thenet�orkann�alin��o�.Watercons�mption�asabo�t39.75B��M/��ear,dividedbet�eenagric�lt�re(38B��M),m�nicipalities
and ind�str�� (1.75 B��M). The overall e����cienc�� o��the�ater s��stem in the ��ear 2000,�hich eq�als thecons�mption as a percentage o�� the total in��o�,�asabo�t71%.Thise����cienc��isrelativel��high,takingintocons�derat�on that the preva�l�ng �rr�gat�on method �s s�r��aceirrigation,�hichhasalo�e����cienc��.Thishighs��steme����cienc��isprobabl��attrib�tedtotheintensiveefforts of MWRI �n O&M, and to the current recycl�ng pract�ces, �n add�t�on to the cons�derable exper�ence of Egypt�an farmers.
WATERISSUESANDCONSIDERATIONS
WaterShortageEgypt �s located �n a dry cl�mate zone where
ra�nfall �s scarce and the desert covers most of the land. �nadditiontoits��xed�ileq�ota,adeepgro�nd�aterreservo�r, wh�ch �s not renewable, may be ut�l�zed w�th arateo��2.7B��M/��earoveraperiodo��100��ears.Theh�gher the explo�tat�on rate, the shorter the per�od of use w�ll be. Egypt �s now capable of sat�sfy�ng �ts water needs,�hich are 25%more than the available�aterresources, through recycl�ng of agr�culture wastewater and trapp�ng water losses. The water shortage �s the main constraint and a major limiting ��actor ��acingthe �mplementat�on of the country�s future econom�c
Water Resources In Egypt: Future Challeges and Opportunities
Water Uses (BCM/year) Water Resources (BCM/year)
Sector Amount Resource Amount
Municipalities 5.25 Nile river 55.50
Industry 3.50 Groundwater (Delta and Valley) 5.50
River Transport 0.25 Deep Groundwater 0.8
Fisheries - Drainage Water Reuse
Hydropower - - Canals in the Delta Region 4.5
Agriculture 63.00 - Nile river and Bahr Youssef 5.0
IWRA, Water International,Volume 32, Number 2, June 2007
development plans.
TheRelationswiththeNileBasinCountriesUntil toda��, none o�� the �ile basin co�ntries
has endorsed the 1959 agreement bet�een Eg��ptand Sudan. However, there had been many techn�cal cooperat�on programs between Egypt and these countr�es. At present, both the Counc�l of M�n�sters and the Techn�cal Adv�sory Comm�ttee work to set up the legal framework necessary for reg�onal cooperat�on among the N�le Bas�n countr�es.
The prev�ously stud�ed water ga�ns from the Upper�ileprojectsinS�danaloneareapproximatel��18B��M/��ear,asmeas�redatAs�an.This�ateristobe d�v�ded between Egypt and Sudan accord�ng to the 1959agreement.�nthelighto��thepresentinternationalc�rcumstances, however, �t does not seem feas�ble that an��o��theseprojectscanbeinitiatedeitherno�orinthe near future.
WaterPollutionW�th the steady �ncrease of populat�on and the
cont�nuous expans�on of urban�zed areas, pollut�on �ssues have �ncreased too. The southern part of the N�le �iverinEg��ptisLake�asser(thelakeo��theHA�)�ith�ts clean water. The lake �s vo�d of pollut�on sources, except for few agr�cultural act�v�t�es on the banks. The
N�le R�ver reach of Aswan�Ca�ro, however, has several sources of pollut�on, �nclud�ng untreated or sem��treated �ndustr�al waste and sewage water, agr�cultural dra�nage �ater,��ash��oodsloaded�ithsediment,andsolidandliq�id�astes o���ile cr�ise activities (Allam, 1999).It was also found that the level of bacter�a �s h�gher than what �s perm�tted for both mun�c�pal and �rr�gat�on purposes. There �s also bacter�al pollut�on and a h�gh level of ammon�a �n the Rosetta branch (Nat�onal Water �esearch��enter,1996(b)).The�amiettabranchalsosuffers from h�gh levels of both sal�n�ty and ammon�a (�rainage�esearch�nstit�te,1996).
The sal�n�ty of dra�nage water south of the �elta is lo�(less than1,000partpermillion(ppm)),and increases to�ard the north to 2,000-5,000 ppm.Atpresent,thedrains,partic�larl��inthe�eltaregion,are used as sewage canals for �ndustr�al and mun�c�pal wastes. They are exposed to chem�cal and b�olog�cal pollut�on that m�n�m�zes the reuse potent�al of water for agr�culture. Some dra�nage water reuse stat�ons have been closed because of the polluted dra�nage water (AbdelAzeem,1999).
Thegro�nd�ateraq�i��eratthene�l��reclaimedareasinthenorthand�esto��the�eltaregionreceivesleakage from the agr�cultural dra�ns and �rr�gat�on canals, as well as from �ndustr�al and human wastes.
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Figure1.WaterStatusinYear2000
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The��biansandstone��ormationintheWestern�eserthashighironconcentrationinAb�Menqar(ElFara��raoasis),andthelo�erparto��thereservoirhasbrackishwater, wh�ch becomes very salty �n �ts northern parts. Control of the groundwater w�thdrawals, espec�ally �n the Northern oases and S�wa oas�s, �s necessary �n order to prevent the deter�orat�on of groundwater q�alit��(Allam,2001).
InadequacyoftheInstitutionalFrameworkThere �s a real need for develop�ng the �nst�tut�ons
engaged �n water resource management, �n order to be able to face the great challenges of water shortage and �ncreas�ng water demands. Coord�nat�on among the �nvolved �nst�tut�ons as well as decentral�zat�on of the dec�s�on�mak�ng processes �s becom�ng essent�al. These �nst�tut�onal concerns seem cruc�al to overcom�ng theinadeq�ac��o��theexistinginstit�tional��rame�ork.These cla�ms can be summar�zed as follows:
a. Lacko��s�����cientcoordinationbet�eenMW��andother m�n�str�es engaged �n the water management.
b. �nadeq�ate in��ormation dissemination andcommun�cat�on among the d�fferent �nst�tut�ons and stakeholders increases thedi����c�ltieso�� the�aterd�str�but�on process, and constra�nts the efforts for develop�ng comprehens�ve water pol�c�es and plans.
c. �ecisionmaking process inMW�� goes thro�ghd�fferent levels �n a central�zed fash�on.
d. In sp�te of the heavy burden carr�ed out by the district engineer inMW��, he/she is s�rviving apermanent case of emergency. Many eng�neers do notacceptthisjob,asitsre�ardsarenoteq�ivalentto the t�me and effort needed.
Deficiency of LegislationAs a result of the expand�ng ut�l�zat�on of
groundwater and the non�trad�t�onal water resources, there �s a need for new laws to protect the resources and to regulate water uses. It �s also necessary to enhance the capac�ty of the ex�st�ng laws to face the cont�nu�ng threat on water and watercourses. The follow�ng are
some examples of leg�slat�ve concerns:
a. �aws are weak aga�nst transgress�on on �rr�gat�on�aws are weak aga�nst transgress�on on �rr�gat�on and dra�nage networks, whether on �ts water, embankments or perms. Concom�tantly, the penalt�es for transgress�ng these laws must be made harsher, thus emphas�z�ng the government�s role �n both mon�tor�ng and execut�ng pun�shment.
b. There �s no announced pol�cy for groundwater well perm�ts for the d�fferent groundwater reservo�rs.
c.Theareaso��gro�nd�ater�ell��eldsarenotdeclaredas protected areas aga�nst pollut�on and over pump�ng.
d. La� n�mber 48 ��or 1982, regarding the req�iredstandards of pollut�on of the d�sposed wastewater to the watercourses, ex�sts only on paper most of the t�me.
e.S�itablehealthandenvironmentalspeci��cationsandgu�del�nes for recycl�ng the agr�cultural dra�nage and treated wastewater �n d�fferent act�v�t�es are not �ellde��ned.
��.Therearenoadeq�atelegislations��ortheparticipationof the pr�vate sector �n water management and water services. Legalization o�� the WUA�s and �aterboards �s not yet establ�shed.
LackofPublicAwarenessThe not�on that Egypt �s a country of water
abundance became stronger after the h�gh N�le r�ver ��oods d�ring the late 1990s. This event led to thedischarge o�� h�ge amo�nts o�� �ater into Toshqadepression �pstream the HA�, the MediterraneanSea and the northern lakes. The transgress�on on watercourses �ncreased, �llegal r�ce cult�vat�on increased, and n�mero�s �na�thorized ��sh ��armsappeared. In the c�t�es and urban areas, the appearances of extravagance �n water use are cons�derable.
LackofInformationEgypt lacks the necessary data �n var�ous
sectors, espec�ally water. The only measured resource
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is the Eg��pt �ile �ater q�ota do�nstream HA�.There �s no accurate measurement for e�ther ra�nfall or��ash��oods.As ��or�aterq�alit��meas�rements in�aterco�rses, or ��or gro�nd�ater aq�i��ers, the�� arevery few, even along the N�le R�ver and ma�n canals. The ava�lable measurements are both l�m�ted and for only a few elements. There are also usually done on d�stant �ntervals.
The operat�on of the �rr�gat�on network depends on water levels and not on d�scharges, rely�ng on hydraul�c relat�onsh�ps between the level and the d�scharge. W�th the present deter�orat�on of the �rr�gat�on network and the changed d�mens�ons of the sect�ons of most watercourses, these relat�onsh�ps no longer hold and�ater��o�sinthecanalsarenolongerkno�n.Th�s,�t �s not poss�ble to accurately know the agr�culture water uses �n the d�fferent reg�ons. In add�t�on, there are no meters on most of the groundwater wells and, of the few �nstalled meters, most do not work. In the mun�c�pal water supply networks, h�gh percentage of the meters, e�ther on the network or at the outlets, do not work, and theratesareestimatedatrandom.��onseq�entl��,there�s no accurate �nformat�on ava�lable on mun�c�pal and �ndustr�al water uses or on the losses of the d�str�but�on network.
GeneralAgreementonTariffsandTrade(GATT)Most of the stud�es concerned w�th the potent�al
global and local e����ects o�� GATT sho�ed that thebene��tingco�ntries��romtheagreementare,ingeneral,the most export�ng ones, and that the countr�es whose food �mports are more than the�r exports w�ll suffer (Siam, 1994). For Eg��pt, the estimated economiclosses res�lting ��rom this agreement are abo�t 180-236milliondollars/��ear. Siam (1994) sho�ed that inthe event of the full deregulat�on of �nternat�onal trade, international prices �ill increase b�� abo�t 16%, andon the level of consumer goods, a h�gh �ncrease w�ll occur �n the pr�ces of da�ry products followed by sugar then�heatandrice.Ab�Al��(1994)andAb�Mando�r(1994)estimatedthatthisincreaseinprices�o�ldleadto an �ncrease �n the cult�vated areas of cotton, r�ce and wheat, wh�ch w�ll have a d�rect �mpact on �ncreas�ng agr�cultural water use.
FragmentationofAgriculturalLandHoldingsHold�ngs Fragmentat�on �s one of the ma�n
�ssues that threaten the agr�culture �n Egypt, part�cularly intheoldlandinthe�ileValle��and�ile�elta.This�s due to �ts d�rect �mpact on agr�cultural product�on e����cienc��,marketing,�ater�see����cienc��,andevenonthe �ncome of farmers who became among the lowest �ncome groups nat�onw�de. The average hold�ng s�ze inthe1920sand1930s�asmorethan2.4ha.A��tertheagr�cultural reform law, the average hold�ng decreased toabo�t1.5ha.Thepresentaverageholdingsizeatthenat�onal level �s about 0.8 ha.
In general, the average net return of one ha �s abo�tL.E.3,750-5,000/��ear.So,theann�alnetret�rnof an average hold�ng at the nat�onal level �s about �.E. 4000,i.e. lessthanL.E.350/month(LE=US$0.15).W�thout the an�mal and poultry wealth that prov�des extra �ncome, farmers would not be able to cover the�r l�v�ng expenses. More fragmentat�on w�ll �ncrease the di����c�ltieso��irrigationmanagementandtho�sandso��farmers may leave the�r cult�vated land look�ng for a better �ncome �n urban centers. Farmer�s �mm�grat�on w�ll have ser�ous soc�al, econom�c and secur�ty conseq�ences.
ANALYSIS OF WATER MANAGEMENTPRACTICES
In fact, most of the ex�st�ng water pol�c�es are �mpress�ve and sens�t�ve to the need to overcome a n�mbero���aterproblems.Un��ort�natel��,these�aterpolicies incl�de several q�estionable iss�es. These�ssues are not only comprom�s�ng the results of these pol�c�es, but also the�r effect�veness. The follow�ng are some observat�ons on these pol�c�es:
a. Most o�� the agric�lt�ral expansionprojects are atthe ta�l ends of the �rr�gat�on network, l�ke the areas locatedinSinaiandinToshqa.Thedrainage�atero�� thoseprojects, there��ore, cannotbe ret�rned tothe water system. It must be e�ther locally recycled or damped out of the system. As a result, the water cons�mption o�� these projects �ill be abo�t thesame as their total�ater req�irements,�hich areabout 24 BCM.
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IWRA, Water International,Volume 32, Number 2, June 2007
Water Resources In Egypt: Future Challeges and Opportunities
Elsalam canal
1.0
Rainfall
1.0
Desalination
0.25
Elsalam canal
4.25
Consumption
4.5Evaporation
2.5
Evapotranspiration
36.0
Rainfall
1.5
Desalination
0.5
Elsalam canal and projects
10.0
Outflow
HAD
Outflow
HAD
Toshqa1.0
Municipalities
54.5011.5
" First Scenario "
55.5
Evapotranspiratio
Evaporation
2.0 Consumptio
Toshqa
4.5
Municipalities
51.07.0
"Second Scenario"
55.5
Rainfal
l.0
HAD
Evapotranspiratio
n Evaporation
2.0 Consumptio
Toshqa
4.5
Municipalities
53.05.0
"Third Scenario"
57.5
Outflow
Figure2.FutureWaterScenarios
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IWRA, Water International,Volume 32, Number 2, June 2007
b. The dynam�c �nteract�ons among the d�fferent water pol�cy opt�ons were not taken�nto cons�derat�on at sett�ng the water balance. Some of these �nteract�ons are as follows:
-�ivertingsomeo�� the�ile�ater toToshqa�illbe deduced from the released water to the N�le Valle��and the�eltaca�singnegative impactson gro�nd�ater recharge and on the q�antit��andq�alit��o��theagric�lt�raldrainage�ater.
-The irrigation improvement projects, red�ctionof r�ce areas and modern �rr�gat�on schemes for orchard and fru�t farms w�ll reduce the recharge rate of the groundwater, and w�ll reduce the dra�nage water and may �ncrease �ts sal�n�ty.
� Expand�ng the dra�nage water reuse pract�ces, even �f the pollut�on problems have been solved, req�ires�singagric�lt�raldrainage�ater�ithrelat�vely h�gh sal�n�ty. Even after blend�ng the dra�nage water w�th the canal water, �rr�gat�on appl�cat�ons have to be �ncreased by the leach�ng req�irements to prevent salt acc�m�lation inthesoil.So,�ater�ses�illincreaseb��10-25%or even more accord�ng to the sal�n�ty of the dra�nage water.
� Expand�ng the use of groundwater �n the N�le Valle��andthe�elta�illlo�erthegro�nd�atertable,andhencered�cestheq�antit��o��drainagewater ava�lable for reuse.
c. The treated sewage water �s currently used �n �rr�gat�ng �oodentrees,andisnot,o����ciall��speaking,tobeused �n �rr�gat�ng vegetables and crops. Thus, add�ng th�s water to the water balance of the country as a potent�al water source for the planned agr�cultural expans�ons �s aga�nst the announced pol�c�es.
e. There �s no part�c�pat�on of the pr�vate sector �n the water serv�ces.
FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES AND WATERSCENARIOS
Three scenar�os for the future water status �n ��ear 2020 are presented. The ��rst scenario ass�mesthe cont�nu�ty of the current water pract�ces w�thout majorchanges,thesecondscenarioass�mesarelativedevelopment of the water pol�c�es, and the th�rd scenarioisambitio�sandre��ectsaradicaldevelopment�n water management pract�ces �n Egypt. Populat�on gro�th rates�ere ass�med according to the ��ndingsof the Th�rd World Forum study on populat�on and �ork po�er, b��Othman et el (2001).Table 2 sho�sthe ma�n assumpt�ons of the three scenar�os. Tables 3 to5demonstrate theavailable�ater reso�rcesvers�swater uses for the proposed scenar�os. F�gure 2 �llustrates the three d�fferent scenar�os as resources and consumpt�ons. Consumpt�ons, rather than uses, were cons�dered �n the water balance calculat�ons to avo�d an��debateabo�tthepossiblelossesand/ormethodo��water use calculat�ons.
RESULTSOFTHEWATERSCENARIOS
As sho�n in the tables, the��rst scenario�illresult �n a water shortage by year 2020. If pr�or�ty �s g�ven to mun�c�pal and �ndustr�al sectors, the water de��cit�illbeintheagric�lt�ralsector.Theavailable�ater�illbeeno�ghonl�� to reclaim0.12millionha�n add�t�on to another 80,000 ha on deep groundwater. F�gure 2 shows the �mpact of th�s scenar�o on dra�nage �atero�t��o�totheseaandtothelakes.Thee����cienc��o��the�aters��stem,there��ore,�illincrease��rom71%toabo�t75%.Thisrelativeincreaseo��s��steme����cienc���s a result of expand�ng water reuse act�v�t�es and the relat�ve �mprovement of the �rr�gat�on network.
The �ater de��cit is avoided in the secondscenario, and �ater req�irements ��or the t�o megaland reclamation projects, Toshqa and Sinai, �illbe fully prov�ded. The total area of the agr�cultural expansionsinthisscenariois0.48millionha,and0.12m�ll�on ha on the deep groundwater. F�gure 2 shows that the drainage�ater o�t��o�s to the sea and lakes�ill be red�ced ��rom 13.25 B��M to 7 B��M. Thiso�t��o��illbelessthantheminim�mamo�ntreq�ired��or maintaining the ��sheries and the environmentaleq�ilibri�minthenorthernlakes,�hich�asestimatedtobeapproximatel��8B��M/��ear(�mamand�brahim,
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IWRA, Water International,Volume 32, Number 2, June 2007
1996).Theevaporationlosses��romthe�aters��stem�illbered�cedto2B��M/��ear,�hilethee����cienc��o��the�aters��stem�illincreasetoabo�t84%. In the th�rd scenar�o, the ava�lable waterIn the th�rd scenar�o, the ava�lable water reso�rcesares�����cienttosatis����the�aterreq�irementso�� theproposedagric�lt�ralexpansionprojects in0.8m�ll�on ha, �n add�t�on to 0.2 m�ll�on ha on the deep gro�nd�ater.Thedrainage�atero�t��o�totheseaandlakes�illdecreaseto5B��M,threateningtheecolog��
of the northern lakes as shown �n F�gure 2. In th�s scenar�o, the total water losses of the water system w�ll decreaseto7B��M/��earandthenet�orke����cienc���illreach88%.
Furthermore, dra�nage water w�ll be carry�ng abo�t2.5B��Mo���ntreatedm�nicipaland ind�strialwastewater. Sal�n�ty of the d�sposed dra�nage water w�ll probabl��exceed6,000ppm,ascomparedtothec�rrentaverage sal�n�ty of th�s water, wh�ch �s approx�mately
Water Resources In Egypt: Future Challeges and Opportunities
Agriculture 69.75 - Nile river and Bahr Youssef 5.00
- Illegal Uses 2.00
Waste Water Reuse 2.00
Rainfall and Flash Floods 1.25
Desalination 0.25
Evaporation Losses (2.00)
Total 82.50 Total 82.50
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2,750ppm(Allam,2001).
The results of the three scenar�os show that unless urgent steps are taken to control populat�on growth, rehab�l�tate �rr�gat�on and water supply net�orks,andrationalize�ater�ses,it�illbedi����c�ltto prov�de water for agr�cultural expans�ons of more than 0.2 m�ll�on ha., If those steps are taken, �n add�t�onIf those steps are taken, �n add�t�on to the treatment of about 2 BCM of sewage water, agric�lt�ralexpansionso��abo�t0.6to1.0millionha,incl�dingToshqaandElSalamcanalprojects,�illbeposs�ble. The ant�c�pated env�ronmental deter�orat�on that may take place �n the northern lakes should be closely mon�tored and evaluated.
�tma��bedi����c�lt toachieve the lastscenariod�e to the h�ge ��nancial investment req�ired. Theabsence of pos�t�ve �nd�cat�ons regard�ng the complet�on of the Jongl�e canal, as well as the absence of any k�nd of consensus among the N�le Bas�n countr�es regard�ng
�hichco�ntriescanexpecttobene��t��romtheincreasedr�ver water low, represent more compell�ng reasons for doubt.
CONCLUSIONSANDRECOMMENDATIONS
A comprehens�ve d�agnos�s of the Egypt�an water system, pol�c�es, �ssues and cons�derat�ons �s rev�ewed and analyzed. Three future scenar�os that �ntroduce the future challenges, us�ng the ava�lable opportun�t�es, are d�scussed and �nvest�gated. Recommendat�ons to help overcome the future challenges are as follows:
a.Intens�fy the government�s efforts to reduce the populat�on growth rate.
b. Efforts are needed to push forward the decentral�zat�on process of water management up to d�str�ct level. These efforts should be accompan�ed by ser�ous capac�ty bu�ld�ng programs.
Water Resources In Egypt: Future Challeges and Opportunities
Water Uses (BCM/year) Water Resources (BCM/year)
Sector Amount Resource Amount
Municipalities & Industry
11.50 Nile River 57.50
Groundwater (Delta and Valley) 7.50
River Transport 0.00 Deep Groundwater 3.20
Fisheries 0.00 Drainage Water Reuse
Hydropower 0.00 - Canals in the Delta Region 9.50
Agriculture 73.70 - Nile River and Bahr Youssef 5.00
IWRA, Water International,Volume 32, Number 2, June 2007
c. Empowerment of the ex�st�ng water use and water poll�tionla�sseemscr�cial.Establishinganadeq�atelegal framework for water users assoc�at�ons and water boards�ithmorej�risdictionsas��orO&M,irrigationsched�ling, and ��ning the violators is also essential.Improvement for the current water laws to allow pr�vate sector part�c�pat�on �n water serv�ces �s needed to ease the ��nancial andmanagement b�rden on thegovernment.
d.TherealhopeistheUpper�ileprojects,�hich�illincrease the �ile �ater q�ota. So, it is necessar�� tostrengthen the cooperat�on t�es through better cultural, soc�al, econom�c and pol�t�cal relat�ons w�th the N�le Basin co�ntries. Also, it is req�ired to enco�ragegovernmental and pr�vate �nvestments �n the N�le bas�n countr�es. e.Theroleo��scienti��cresearchsho�ldtakeitsplacetodevelopne�a����ordabledesalinizationtechniq�es.Thesameroleissigni��cant��orintrod�cingne�agric�lt�reseeds and breeds that have h�gh product�v�ty, h�gh d�seases res�stance and low water consumpt�on.
f. A comprehens�ve nat�onal program �s needed to rat�onal�ze water uses �n the domest�c and �ndustr�al sectors. Install�ng and ma�nta�n�ng water conservat�on dev�ces, rev�s�ng the serv�ce tar�ff, us�ng treated wastewater �nstead of dr�nk�ng water �n water�ng gardens and parks, recycl�ng the �ndustr�al wastewater and ut�l�z�ng seawater and brack�sh groundwater for wash�ng and cool�ng purposes �n the new �ndustr�es are h�ghly recommended. g. It �s �mportant to �ncrease the governmental and pr�vate sector �ntervent�ons needed to ra�se the publ�c�s awareness of the water scarc�ty problems, the rat�onal�zat�ons of water use, and protect�on of watercourses from transgress�on and pollut�on.
The results of the three scenar�os show that unless urgent act�ons are taken to rehab�l�tate �rr�gat�on and water supply networks, as well as rat�onal�ze water �ses,it�illbedi����c�lttoprovide�ater��oragric�lt�ralexpans�ons of more than 0.2 m�ll�on ha. None of
the proposed scenar�os could su�t the government�s amb�t�ous development plan. However, the best scenar�o shows that the upper agr�culture expans�on limit isonemillionhaagainsttheaimed1.36millionhab��theGoE.
REFERENCES
AbdelAzim,�.A.(1999)Agricultural Drainage Water Reuse in Egypt: Current Practices and a Vision for Future Development.(Ph.�.thesis,Fac�lt��o��Engineering,��airoUniversit��,��airo).
Ab� Al��, S. (1994) GATT �mpacts on Eg��ptianAgr�culture, Egyptian Journal of Agro-economics, Spec�al Issue.
Ab� Mando�r, M. (1994) GATT: Opport�nitiesand Challenges, Egyptian Journal of Agro-economics, Spec�al Issue.
Allam, M. �. (1995) Anal��sis o�� S�r��ace �rrigationImprovement �n Egypt, Journal of Egyptian Society of Engineers, 34.
Allam,M.�. (2001)Water and Agricultural Land in Egypt: Past, Present and Future (Ca�ro, The AcademicBookshop).
�rainage�esearch �nstit�te (1996)The Year Book of Drainage Water Quality(��airo)
Emam, E. and K. �brahim (1996) Minimum Nile
Drainage Needs for Sustainable Estuarine Ecosystem (Nat�onal Water Research Center, ��airo).
Ministr�� o��Water�eso�rces and �rrigation (1997)ADraft Strategy for Water Resources in Egypt (��airo).
Ministr�� o�� Water �eso�rces and �rrigation (1998)Eg��pt�s �rrigation �mprovement Program: 1.Performance Assessment, APRP-Water Policy Reform project, Report No.7.
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�ational Water �esearch ��enter (1996b) Poll�tionControl and Water Qual�ty Conservat�on along Rosetta Branch, Water Resources Strategic Research Activity,�eport�o.11,��airo.
Othman, M., Elmahdy, A., Huss�en, S., and E. Saleh (2001)Pop�lationandWorkForce:�irections,Interact�ons, and Future Aspects, Final Report, Third World Forum, Egypt 2020 Project (��airo).
Siam, G. (1994) GATT and The Sit�ation o�� theEgypt�an Strateg�c Crops, Egyptian Journal of Agro-economics, Spec�al Issue.
Water Resources In Egypt: Future Challeges and Opportunities
