Date post: | 17-Jan-2015 |
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US, the World, and Water
When the well's dry, we know the worth of water. Benjamin Franklin, Poor
Richard's Almanac, 1746
Water is the best of all things.
Pindar, 500 BC
Whiskey is for drinking; water is for fighting over
Mark Twain ca 1881
Jack and Jill went up the hill to fetch a pail of water.“ But Jack fell down when tests came back showing a high count of two water-borne parasites known as cryptosporidia and giardia lamblia in his restaurant's water.
It's the water, stupid. Sorry about that, but it is. If we don't pay attention to the water, it's going to bite us big time.“
21st Century Blogs
Tomorrow Is Not Going to Be Like Yesterday
"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore”
The 21st Century
The 21st Century
• Population Explosion• Pressures for Development• Scarce Resources• Technological Surge• Change• Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous
National and World Situations
The Climate Change Bears
Sea Level Rise Increased Hurricane
Intensity -SST Increased Flood
Potential Increased Drought Increased
Temperatures More Storms Uncertainty
CLIMATE CHANGE!A strong, credible body of scientific evidence
shows that climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses
significant risks for a broad range of human and natural systems,
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It is virtually certain that increases in the frequency and magnitude of warm daily temperature extremes and decreases in cold extremes will occur in the 21st century at the global scale.
It is very likely that the length, frequency, and/or intensity of warm spells or heat waves will increase over most land areas.
It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe.
Rank Consecutive 12-month Period
Temperature Departure(from 20th Century Average)
Warmest May 2011 – April 2012* +2.80°F
2nd Warmest November 1999 – October 2000
+2.70°F
3rd Warmest October 1999 – September 2000
+2.65°F
4th Warmest April 2011 – March 2012* +2.61°F
5th Warmest September 2005 – August 2006
+2.56°F
6th Warmest August 2005 – July 2006 +2.54°F
September 1999 – August 2000
+2.54°F
8th Warmest July 1999 – June 2000 +2.51°F
9th Warmest June 1999 – May 2000 +2.46°F
August 1999 – July 2000 +2.46°F
Ten Warmest 12-month consecutive periods of the CONUS RecordThese are the warmest 12-month periods on record for the contiguous United States. The record begins
January 1895.
Climate Change and the NFIP
Water Security:
Flash Points and Challenges Ahead
Dallas, Texas2 April 2013
Gerald E. Galloway, Jr., PE, PhDWater Policy Collaborative, University of Maryland
The World and the US Face Major Water Challenges
• The reliable availability of an acceptable quantity and quality of water for health, livelihoods and production, and
• An ability to deal with water-related disasters such as floods, hurricanes and drought
Adapted from David Gray and Claudia Sadoff
Water Security
Drought and Water Demand
• 2002 - 49 percent of the contiguous United States in moderate to extreme drought
• 2005-2007 Drought Grows in West and Southeast
• 2011 – Texas ‘On Fire”
• Uncertainty - Climate Change
US Water Challenges
Source NRDC
• 55% of the nation’s river and stream miles do not support healthy populations of aquatic life
• Non-point source pollution not yet controlled (TMDLs?)
• Number of new contaminants on rise
Water Quality
US Water Challenges
• Alien Invasive Species (AIS) growing threat
US Water ChallengesWater Quality
• Airborne pollution increasing
• Fracking
• 76 Years of Flood Control
• 44 Years of Flood Insurance
• Increasing Flood Damages
• Average annual losses - $8 Billion Inadequate Protection
• Inadequate Maintenance
US Water ChallengesFloods
city of Dallas/ David Mimlitch
City of Dallas/ David Mimlitch
Illustrative Result – Changes to Flood Areas
20Climate Change and the NFIP AECOM
Climate Change and the NFIP
Coastal Flood Area ChangeGulf of Mexico (Illustrative, not final)
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• Limiting Port Depths
• US Ports ~45 foot depths
• International Ports > 60 foot depths –Panamax II Capable
• Inland Waterway System
• Limited Size Locks
• Traffic Congestion
• Age
• Economic Viability
Ports , Harbors and Waterways in Transition
US Water Challenges
• Wetland and Species Losses
• ~ 60,000 acres annual wetland loss
• >1370 threatened or endangered plants and animals (1100 plans)
• Need for minimum instream flows and flood pulses
Protecting the Environment
US Water Challenges
100 Years of Civil Engineering at Maryland
Water - Energy Nexus• Water for Energy and Fuel
Production
• Energy for Water Production
• Exploitation of Renewable Sources
• Maximizing Sustainable Use of Hydro Capabilities
US Water Challenges
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Impact
• Farmers react– 18,000 participate in
Bucket Brigade
– Forced open gates ofdiversion canal
• Economic devastation– Predicted loss: $250
million
– Estimated actual loss:$400 million
Dealing with Conflicts US Water Challenges
1. The Nation Lacks a National Water Vision and a Water Policy
2. Water Efforts Are Uncoordinated
3. Water Must Be Dealt with in a Holistic Manner
• Water and Sanitation (MDG)
• Water Supply
• Disasters
• Transboundary Water Relationships
• Major Basin Development
US Water Challenges
Dealing with Global Water Challenges
Water Factoids
• One Billion People Lack Access to Safe water
• Two Billion People Live in Countries under Water Stress
• Five Million People Die Each Year from Water-related Illness
Source: DOS;FP
Cubic Meters of Water Per Capita by BasinSource: Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database
Basic Needs
Can Be Met
SHARING WATER RESOURCES
• There are 263 transboundary basins
• 145 nations have territory within a transboundary basin, and 21 lie entirely within one.
• 12 countries have more than 95% of their territory within one or more transboundary basins.
• On third of the transboundary basins are shared by more than two countries.
Good Neighbors?
• 97% of Egypt’s Nile Water dependent on 8 other nations
• 66% of Iraq’s Water dependent on Turkey
• 19 Countries rely on Imported Water for > 50% of renewable resources
Source: SEI, Polestar Series, Report 4
Source: TFDD
Water Basins at Risk
Virtual Water
Basics!
Water SupplyFloodsPowerPollutionInfrastructureNavigation
Water SupplyFloodsPowerPollutionInfrastructure
Impediments to Progress• Lack of Policy
–US Internal
–US Foreign Policy• Little Interest in Water• Denial of Change Impacts• Focus on Small Projects• Nervousness about Major Projects• Limited Funding
The Challenge
• Involve All Elements of Society and All Nations in a Complex Political, Social and Technical Process
• Export Our Lessons Learned, Not Our Mistakes
Are We Ready?