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Water, Water Water, Water Everywhere,Everywhere,
Nor Any Drop Nor Any Drop to Drinkto Drink
byby
Jim KelleyJim Kelley
Humanity’s Top Ten Humanity’s Top Ten ProblemsProblems
for next 50 years for next 50 years
2004 6.5 Billion People2050 ~ 10 Billion People
Richard SmalleyRichard Smalley(1943-2005)(1943-2005)1996 Nobel 1996 Nobel Laureate in Laureate in ChemistryChemistry
Rice UniversityRice University
1.1. ENERGYENERGY2.2. WATERWATER3.3. FOODFOOD4.4. ENVIRONMENT ENVIRONMENT 5.5. POVERTYPOVERTY6.6. TERRORISM & WARTERRORISM & WAR7.7. DISEASEDISEASE8.8. EDUCATIONEDUCATION9.9. DEMOCRACYDEMOCRACY10.10. POPULATIONPOPULATION
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It Is Helpful to Think of Water as PowerIt Is Helpful to Think of Water as Power
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Consider the Commodities Consider the Commodities Which Have Shaped Human Which Have Shaped Human
History.History.
Once it was SaltOnce it was SaltLater it was SpicesLater it was Spices
Today it is OilToday it is OilIn the Future it will be Fresh WaterIn the Future it will be Fresh Water
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Salt Has Long Been an Important Commodity
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Salt Is ASalt Is ACommodity ThatCommodity That
Has Shaped Has Shaped GlobalGlobal
Commerce andCommerce and Politics From Politics From The Earliest The Earliest
TimesTimes
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Timbuktu Salt CaravanTimbuktu Salt Caravan
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Mohandas GandhiMohandas GandhiLed the 25 DayLed the 25 Day
Salt March, Salt March, Ending at Dandi onEnding at Dandi on
5 April, 1930, 5 April, 1930, Where He Publically Where He Publically Violated British LawViolated British Law
By Picking up a By Picking up a Piece of SaltPiece of Salt
And Starting a And Starting a National MovementNational Movement
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By the Middle Ages.By the Middle Ages.Spices Began to Spices Began to
Drive Global PoliticsDrive Global Politics
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Spice Market--Morocco
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Marco Polo HelpedMarco Polo HelpedVenice Rise to Venice Rise to Dominance withDominance with
Its Control of the Its Control of the Spice RoutesSpice Routes
Polo’s Trip toPolo’s Trip toCathay--1274-1291Cathay--1274-1291
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Spice Routes
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By the Fifteenth Century, The Ottoman Empire Had Taken Control of the Spice Routes
Portugal
Ottoman EmpireIn the 16th Century
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This LedThis LedPrince Henry Prince Henry The NavigatorThe Navigator
To SendTo SendPortuguese Explorers Portuguese Explorers
Around Africa Around Africa To the Spice Islands, To the Spice Islands,
ChangingChangingThe Map of The Map of the Worldthe World
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Bartolomeu Dias Sailed toThe Cape of Good Hope,
1487-1488
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Vasco da Gama Sailed toCalicut in 1497-1499
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For HundredsFor HundredsOf Years,Of Years,Salt and Salt and
Other Spices,Other Spices,EspeciallyEspeciallyPepper,Pepper, DroveDroveGlobal Global
CommerceCommerce
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In the 19In the 19thth Century, Coal Began Century, Coal BeganTo Drive Global PoliticsTo Drive Global Politics
Through the Industrial Revolution Through the Industrial Revolution
James Watt’sJames Watt’sSteam EngineSteam Engine
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Today, of course, Petroleum DrivesToday, of course, Petroleum DrivesInternational Trade and Global PoliticsInternational Trade and Global Politics
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Santa Barbara Channel
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So, After Salt, Spices, and Oil, So, After Salt, Spices, and Oil, What Will be the NextWhat Will be the Next
Commodity to Drive Global Politics?Commodity to Drive Global Politics?
It Will Almost Certainly BeIt Will Almost Certainly BeFresh WaterFresh Water
So, Let’s Look at Water…So, Let’s Look at Water…
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But Even With All But Even With All this Waterthis Water
We Still Have We Still Have Inadequate Supplies Inadequate Supplies of Safe Fresh Waterof Safe Fresh Water
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Total WaterSalt Salt WaterWater
97% of the 97% of the Earth’s Earth’s Water isWater is
Salt WaterSalt Water
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Even TakingEven TakingOnly the Fresh Only the Fresh Water PortionWater PortionTotal Total
Fresh WaterFresh Water
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Total Fresh WaterIce
68.7%
Deep GroundwaterAnd Soil Moisture
30.1%
Available Available Fresh WaterFresh Water~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Equal toEqual to1% of Total 1% of Total Fresh Water,Fresh Water,
OrOr~0.007% ~0.007%
of All Waterof All Wateron Earthon Earth
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Of the Of the 6.7 Billion 6.7 Billion People in People in the Worldthe World
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2.6 Billion2.6 Billion(40%) (40%) LackLack
Basic Basic SanitationSanitation
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And 1 BillionAnd 1 BillionUseUse
Unsafe Unsafe DrinkingDrinking
WaterWater
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There Are Many PlacesThere Are Many PlacesIn the World Where theIn the World Where theDemand for Fresh WaterDemand for Fresh Water
Is Already Producing IntenseIs Already Producing IntenseRe-Adjustment of PoliticalRe-Adjustment of Political
PrioritiesPriorities--Let’s Look at Three--Let’s Look at Three
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MediterraneanSea
Israel
SyriaLebanon
Jordan
Nearly AllNearly AllOf Israel’sOf Israel’s
Water ComesWater ComesFrom theFrom the
Jordan RiverJordan RiverAnd Two Large And Two Large
AquifersAquifers
West Bank(1967)
Golan Heights(1967)
Gaza Strip
Aquifers
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Pakistan
India
Afghanistan
The IndusThe IndusRiver ProvidesRiver Provides
Nearly AllNearly AllThe Agricultural The Agricultural Water to PakistanWater to Pakistan--Its Headwaters--Its HeadwatersAre in KashmirAre in Kashmir
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Baglihar Dam
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““This [issue…is] inextricably linked to the This [issue…is] inextricably linked to the Jammu and Kashmir dispute.Jammu and Kashmir dispute.Unless this issue is settled …the matter of Unless this issue is settled …the matter of normalization of relations between Indianormalization of relations between IndiaAnd Pakistan would remain a pipedream.”And Pakistan would remain a pipedream.”
Pakistan Observer, 20 Oct. 2008Pakistan Observer, 20 Oct. 2008
The Baglihar Hydropower The Baglihar Hydropower Project, was inauguratedProject, was inaugurated by Indian Prime Ministerby Indian Prime MinisterMahmohan Singh on Mahmohan Singh on 17 October, 200817 October, 2008
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Beijing
Hangzhou
Nanjing
The 1200-Mile Long The 1200-Mile Long Grand Canal, Completed Grand Canal, Completed During The Sui DynastyDuring The Sui Dynasty
(581–618 AD), Will Soon be(581–618 AD), Will Soon beJoined by Two New Joined by Two New
North-South WaterwaysNorth-South Waterways
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In China, Most of the Water is in the South
Danjiangkou
Shijiazhuang
Beijing
Hangzhou?
?
Western Routes
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Now Let’s LookNow Let’s LookA Bit Closer to HomeA Bit Closer to Home
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MajorMajorJohn Wesley PowellJohn Wesley Powell
(1834-1902)(1834-1902)
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““The Arid Region is the The Arid Region is the great Rocky Mountains great Rocky Mountains Region Of the United Region Of the United
States, and it embraces States, and it embraces more than four-tenthsmore than four-tenths
of the country, of the country, excluding Alaska. excluding Alaska.
In all this region theIn all this region themean annual rainfall mean annual rainfall
is insufficient is insufficient for agriculturefor agriculture””
John Wesley PowellJohn Wesley Powellp. 15, Emphasis added15, Emphasis added
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Average Annual Precipitation
100th Meridian 20” Isohyet
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Settled Areas1880
Of course, at the time of Powell’s Report, Most of the Population Lived in the East
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The Current Drought as of 22 July, 2008
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Many droughts will Many droughts will occur, many seasonsoccur, many seasons
in a long series will bein a long series will be fruitless; and it mayfruitless; and it maybe doubted whether,be doubted whether,
on the whole, agricultureon the whole, agriculturewill prove remunerative.will prove remunerative.
--John Wesley Powell--John Wesley Powell
Arid Lands Report, p. 13Arid Lands Report, p. 13
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22 March--6 April 2007
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San Francisco Chronicle 31 October, 2008
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Record of Drought in the West
In a In a Comprehensive Comprehensive 2004 Study of 2004 Study of
Western Western Drought, Drought, Ed Cook of Ed Cook of
Lamont Lamont (Columbia U.) (Columbia U.) and Colleaguesand Colleagues
Studied Studied Records Records
from Across the from Across the ““Arid Lands”Arid Lands”
Examining 286 Examining 286 2.5’ x 2.5’2.5’ x 2.5’Grid PointsGrid Points
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220 yr 140 yr
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
100
80
60
40
20
0
Drier
Wetter
Historical Period
Cook, (Lamont) et al., Science, 5 Nov. 2004
Record of Drought in the West%
Dro
ug
ht
Are
a
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1000AD 1500AD 2000AD1000AD 1500AD 2000ADTem
pera
ture
Ch
an
ge º
CTem
pera
ture
Ch
an
ge º
C
MedievalWarm Period
Little Ice Age
Figure 22 in the Intergovernmental PanelFigure 22 in the Intergovernmental PanelOn Climate Change Report Climate Change, 1995On Climate Change Report Climate Change, 1995
11
00
-1-1
History of Temperature in Europe
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Public--11%, Domestic--<1%
Irrigation—34%Livestock--<1%
Thermal Power Generation—48%
Industrial—5%
Extractive Uses Extractive Uses Of Water in the Of Water in the United StatesUnited States
in 2000in 2000 --USGS--USGS
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So What Can We Do About It?So What Can We Do About It?
We Can Develop Two ResourcesWe Can Develop Two ResourcesWhich We Have in Abundance;Which We Have in Abundance;Salt Water and Solar Energy…Salt Water and Solar Energy…
And Develop Them TogetherAnd Develop Them Together
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First A Look at Desalination First A Look at Desalination Of Seawater and Brackish WaterOf Seawater and Brackish Water
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“If we could ever competitively—at a cheap rate—get fresh water from salt water, that would be in the
long-range interest of humanity, and would really dwarf any other scientific accomplishment.”
--John F. Kennedy, April 12, 1961
Global Installed Desalination Capacity50
40
30
20
10
0
Cap
aci
ty (
Mill
ion
m3/d
ay)
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
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San Francisco Uses AboutSan Francisco Uses About100 Million Gallons of Water per Day100 Million Gallons of Water per Day
This is About 300 Acre-Feet per DayThis is About 300 Acre-Feet per DayOr About 380,000 cubic meters per dayOr About 380,000 cubic meters per day
So Let’s Define So Let’s Define 380,000 cubic meters/day380,000 cubic meters/day
As 1 SFUAs 1 SFU
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“If we could ever competitively—at a cheap rate—get fresh water from salt water, that would be in the
long-range interest of humanity, and would really dwarf any other scientific accomplishment.”
--John F. Kennedy, April 12, 1961
Global Installed Desalination Capacity50
40
30
20
10
0
Cap
aci
ty (
Mill
ion
m3/d
ay)
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1000 SFU
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“If we could ever competitively—at a cheap rate—get fresh water from salt water, that would be in the
long-range interest of humanity, and would really dwarf any other scientific accomplishment.”
--John F. Kennedy, April 12, 1961
Global Installed Desalination Capacity50
40
30
20
10
0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
40
30
20
10
0
Cap
aci
ty
(Thousa
nd
acr
e-f
eet/
day)
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Primer on DesalinationPrimer on Desalination
There a Basically Two Types ofThere a Basically Two Types ofDesalination Methods Desalination Methods
1. Thermal Techniques1. Thermal Techniques 2. Membrane Techniques2. Membrane Techniques
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Thermal Techniques involve distillation of Thermal Techniques involve distillation of fresh water from saline water. These methods require fresh water from saline water. These methods require
a large amount of energy as heata large amount of energy as heat
There are several methods. The most commonly used are:There are several methods. The most commonly used are:
1. Multistage Flash Distillation: Involves several1. Multistage Flash Distillation: Involves several evaporation stages in which pressure is evaporation stages in which pressure is
relieved to produce flash evaporationrelieved to produce flash evaporation
Saudi Arabia
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2. Multi-Effect Distillation (MED): Involves several Multi-Effect Distillation (MED): Involves several stages (effects) of boiling saline water each using stages (effects) of boiling saline water each using waste heat from the preceding stagewaste heat from the preceding stage
Bahrain
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Membrane Techniques Involve Forcing Brine UnderMembrane Techniques Involve Forcing Brine UnderPressure Through an Osmotic Membrane toPressure Through an Osmotic Membrane to Remove Salt and Other Large MoleculesRemove Salt and Other Large MoleculesThe Most Commonly used Method is Reverse Osmosis The Most Commonly used Method is Reverse Osmosis which Requires Energy to Pressurize the Brinewhich Requires Energy to Pressurize the Brine
Ashkelon Ashkelon Desalination Desalination Plant, IsraelPlant, Israel
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Membrane Techniques areCapturing an Increasing Share
Worldwide Installed CapacityMillions of Cubic Meters per Day
70605040302010 0
1980 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15
Membrane
Thermal
1000 SFU
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It Is Useful to Compare It Is Useful to Compare thethe
True Costs of True Costs of Transported WaterTransported WaterWith Desalinated With Desalinated
SeawaterSeawater
kWh/kgal 2 4 6 8 10
Colorado River Aqueduct
California Water Project
Seawater Reverse Osmosis
Affordable Desalination Collaborative, 27 March, 2008Affordable Desalination Collaborative, 27 March, 2008
More ThanHalf of
SouthernCalifornia’s
Water
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It Is Useful to Compare theTrue Costs of Transported
WaterWith Desalinated Seawater
Colorado River Aqueduct
California Water Project
Seawater Reverse Osmosis
Affordable Desalination Collaborative, 27 March, 2008
More ThanHalf of
SouthernCalifornia’s
Water
kWh/m3 0.4 0,8 1.2 1.8 2.0
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The Affordable Desalination Collaboration (ADC) is a non-profit organizationcomprised of the following group of leading companies, state and government agencies:
•California Department of Water Resources•California Energy Commission•Corollo Engineers•City of Santa Cruz Water Department•Energy Recovery, Inc.•FilmTec corporation•GE Zenon•Hydranautics—A Nitto Denko Company•Koch Membranes•Metropolitan Water District of Southern California•Naval Facilities Engineering Service Center•Pentair Water Treatment—Code Line Division•Poseidon Resources•Sandia National Laboratories•Toray Membranes•U. S. Bureau of Reclamation•West Basin Municipal Water District
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We CurrentlyWe CurrentlyHave 21 Have 21
DesalinationDesalinationPlants Proposed Plants Proposed
Or ApprovedOr ApprovedIn CaliforniaIn California Approved,
6 August, 2008
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BCDC, 2005
Several SitesSeveral SitesHave been under Have been under Consideration Consideration For DesalinationFor DesalinationPlants in the Plants in the Bay AreaBay Area
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SEC, IPO for Energy Recovery, Inc.SEC, IPO for Energy Recovery, Inc.San Leandro, CA, 24 March, 2008San Leandro, CA, 24 March, 2008
2006 Installed Capacity and Projected (2015) Installed CapacityOf Desalination Plants by Country
2005 Capacity 2050 Projected Capacity
20
15
10
5
0Capaci
ty (
Mill
ion m
3/d
ay)
Saudi UAE USA China Spain Algeria Japan Aust. Libya Qatar India Arabia
3000 SFU
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And The Final And The Final Piece of the PuzzlePiece of the Puzzle……How to Power AllHow to Power AllThis DesalinationThis Desalination
World Energy World Energy Millions of Barrels per Day (Oil Equivalent)
300
200
100
01860 1900 1940 1980 2020 2060 2100
Source: John F. Bookout (President of Shell USA) ,“Two Centuries of Fossil Fuel Energy” International Geological Congress, Washington DC; July 10,1985. Episodes, vol 12, 257-262 (1989).
R. E. Smalley Rice University
The Energy Revolution (The Terawatt Challenge)
30 -- 60 Terawatts450 – 900 MBOE/day
R. E. Smalley Rice University
2004 2050
OilCoa
lGas
Fiss
ion
Biom
ass
Hyd
roel
ectric
Sola
r, W
ind,
Geo
ther
mal
OilCoa
lGas
Fiss
ion
Biom
ass
Hyd
roel
ectric
Sola
r, W
ind,
Geo
ther
mal
%
50
40
30
20
10
0
%
50
40
30
20
10
0
14.5 Terawatts
220 M BOE/day
Solar Cell Land Area Requirements
6 Boxes at 3.3 TW Each = 20 TWNate Lewis Cal. Tech
04/19/2304/19/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
In California we have two things in abundance:In California we have two things in abundance: 1. Salt water 1. Salt water
2. Sunshine 2. Sunshine
We Need More Water We Need More Water
Water is EnergyWater is EnergyFossil fuel costs continue to riseFossil fuel costs continue to rise
Solar energy cost continues to fallSolar energy cost continues to fallDesalination is becoming cheaper than transported waterDesalination is becoming cheaper than transported water
Conclusion:Conclusion:We should be developing solar as fast as possibleWe should be developing solar as fast as possible
We should use solar for desalinationWe should use solar for desalination
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Perhaps Not Surprising, Solar Radiation is Related to Aridity
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40
30
20
10
0
Capaci
ty (
Mill
ions
m3/d
ay
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Installed Desalination Capacity in the Middle East-North Africa (MENA)
Region and Worldwide
Worldwide
MENA
1000 SFU
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At This Time, Less ThanAt This Time, Less Than0.2% of Desalination is0.2% of Desalination is
Done Directly WithDone Directly WithSolar EnergySolar Energy
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Spain’s Planned Teatro de Aqua Solar Deslanation Plant Las Palmas, Canary Islands
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Teatro de Aqua in the Harbor of Las Palmas
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Summary:Summary:
There is not enough water in the WestThere is not enough water in the West
Population growth will continue to increase demand;Population growth will continue to increase demand;conservation can only help a littleconservation can only help a little
An obvious source of new water is available: An obvious source of new water is available: DesalinationDesalination
Solar power is one of only two substitutes for fossil fuelsSolar power is one of only two substitutes for fossil fuelsand the technology is improving rapidlyand the technology is improving rapidly
Solar desalination is becoming cheaper and more practicalSolar desalination is becoming cheaper and more practical
04/19/2304/19/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
““You can’t solve a problem with You can’t solve a problem with the same thinking that created it.”the same thinking that created it.”
Albert Einstein Albert Einstein
04/19/2304/19/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
04/19/2304/19/23 jim kelleyjim kelley
And There Is a Nice SymmetryAnd There Is a Nice SymmetrySolar Desalination Started with Salt ProductionSolar Desalination Started with Salt Production
and Will End with Water Productionand Will End with Water Production
We Used to Keep the Salt; Now We’ll Keep the WaterWe Used to Keep the Salt; Now We’ll Keep the Water
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Thank YouThank You