WaterNSW Water Operations Report...Current Resources Breakdown 14 Sept 2017 WaterNSW...

WaterNSW

Water Operations Report

Macquarie - Cudgegong

14 September 2017

Dam Storages

WaterNSW Macquarie-Cudgegong Water Ops Report 14 Sept 2017

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

Burrendong Dam Storage

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Dam Storages

14 Sept 2017 WaterNSW Macquarie-Cudgegong Water Ops Report

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60% Windamere Dam Storage

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Supplementary Access

No supplementary events in the Macquarie - Cudgegong since the

start of 2017/18.


2017/18 Water

Availability for Macquarie

A 2% increase in allocation in Aug17 was due to

the final carryover volume from 2016/17 being

slightly less than forecasted (in previous months

resource assessment)and also adjustments from

essential requirements for 2017/18.

General Security Available Water Determination

Date AWD ML/Share Total %

1-Jul-17 0.36 36%

14-Aug-17 0.02 38%


Licence Category

Water Availability as of 1st

August 2017

Sum of

Share

Component

Sum of

Account

Balance

Sum of

Available

Water

Sum of

AWD Vol

Sum of

Carryove

r

In

Sum of

Allocation

Assignments

In

Sum of

Allocation

Assignments

Out

Sum of

Usage

DOMESTIC AND STOCK 4,307 4,241 4,074 4,307 0 0 0 66

DOMESTIC AND STOCK [DOMESTIC] 785 785 785 785 0 0 0 0

DOMESTIC AND STOCK [STOCK] 170 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

LOCAL WATER UTILITY 16,205 15,746 15,464 16,205 0 0 0 459

REGULATED RIVER (GENERAL SECURITY) 613,181 662,459 661,100 220,744 445,142 4,296 4,296 3,427

REGULATED RIVER (HIGH SECURITY) 8,416 8,363 8,299 8,416 0 25 25 53

REGULATED RIVER (HIGH SECURITY) [RESEARCH] 4,044 3,879 3,879 4,044 0 0 0 165

REGULATED RIVER (HIGH SECURITY) [TOWN WATER SUPPLY] 40 40 40 40 0 0 0 0

SUPPLEMENTARY WATER 48,687 48,685 48,685 48,687 -1 9,080 9,080 0

GRAND TOTAL 695,835 744,199 742,327 303,227 445,141 13,401 13,401 4,170

2017/18 Water

Availability for Cudgegong

General Security Available Water Determination

Date AWD ML/Share Total %

1-Jul-17 0.36 36%

14-Aug-17 0.02 38%


Licence Category

Water Availability as of 1st August 2017

Sum of

Share

Component

Sum of

Account

Balance

Sum of

Available

Water

Sum of

AWD Vol

Sum of

Carryover

In

Sum of

Allocation

Assignments

In

Sum of

Allocation

Assignments

Out

Sum of

Usage

DOMESTIC AND STOCK 672 565 564 672 0 0 0 107

DOMESTIC AND STOCK [DOMESTIC] 16 16 16 16 0 0 0 0

DOMESTIC AND STOCK [STOCK] 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

LOCAL WATER UTILITY 2,600 2,482 2,471 2,600 0 0 0 118

REGULATED RIVER (GENERAL SECURITY) 19,285 35,923 35,875 6,943 29,029 0 0 49

REGULATED RIVER (HIGH SECURITY) 5,412 5,412 5,411 5,412 0 0 0 1

REGULATED RIVER (HIGH SECURITY) [RESEARCH] 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0

SUPPLEMENTARY WATER 1,312 1,312 1,312 1,248 0 0 0 0

GRAND TOTAL 29,313 45,710 45,651 16,892 29,029 0 0 274

Current Resources

Breakdown


Environmental General Security,

180

Planned Environmental

Water, 192

High Security, 12

Towns, S&D, 13

Evap from Storage, 55 ops Losses , 160

Inaccessible Storage, 38

Irrigation general Security, 484

Resource Dsitribution August 2017 to May 2018 Macquarie

Total general Security (AWD+ carryover 664 GL)

Total = 1,134 GL

Bulk Water

Transfer

81GL

Burrendong

Dam Storage

at 1 August,

1,035 GL

Tota

l = 1

,13

4 G

L

Supply Distribution

Minimum

forecast

dam inflows

18GL

Resource Assessment


Macq Cudge Resource Assessment -

Burrendong Dam

1-Jul-16 1-Aug-16 1-Sep-16 1-Oct-16 1-Feb-17 1-May-17 1-Jun-17 1-Aug-17 1-Aug-17

Planning Horizon (drought sequence) Aug 16 –

Apr 17

Sep 16 –

Jun 18

Sept 16 –

Jun 18

Oct 16 –

Jun 18

Feb 17 –

May 18

May 17- May

18

Jun 17- May

18

Aug 17-

May 18

Aug 17- May

19

AWD Announcement Date 1-Sep-16 1-Oct-16 1-Jul-17 1-Jul-17 1-Aug-17 1-Sep-17

Min Inflow Sequence Oct 16 –

Jun 18

Oct 16 –

Jun 18

Feb 17 –

May 18

Jul 17- May

18

Jul 17- May

18

Aug 17-

May 18

Sep 17- May

19

GL

Opening storage volume 345.4 759.2 967 1501 1125 1044 1042 1035 1035

Plus volume available through Bulk Water

Transfer

47 39 39 0 71 81 81 81 62

Plus minimum expected inflow sequence

over planning horizon

9.9 140+134.6 443+101 101 26 21 21 18 130

Less amount of dead storage -34 -34 -34 -34 -34 -34 -34 -34 -34

Less evaporation allowance -26 -89.5 -147.6 -128 - 94 -57 -53 -55 -103

Less remaining essential requirements -153.7GL -328 -314 -304 - 215 -199 -199 -187 -346

Less unallocated storage volume -3 -3 -220 -364 - 192 -266 -285 -4 -4

Less volume remaining in irrigator

accounts

-18.5 -109.4 -433.4 -439 - 376 -330 -313 -472 -480

Less volume remaining in environmental

accounts

-7.6 -77.9 -215 -333 - 311 -260 -260 -365 -370

Amount available for allocation (+ve) /

Amount of inflow required before new

allocation can be made (-ve)

159.5 431 186 0 16 -110

Allocation % =21% alloc =56% alloc = ~23%

alloc

Alloc Reset 2 % alloc

6 Month Rainfall and Inflow


24 Month Rainfall and Inflow


Inflows are consistent with rainfall

over the past 6 month period. Actual

inflows for the 6 months were 56GL

which is slightly better than 80th

percentile inflows.

Inflows are consistent with rainfall over

the past 12 months. Actual inflows for

the last12 months were 1,500GL which

is wetter than 10th percentile until Nov

2016, however turned out to be drier

than 80th percentile for rest of the year.

Rainfall and Inflow (dam)


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Infl

ow

Vo

lum

e (

GL

)

Burrendong Dam - 6 month inflows/statistical inflows

99 percentie

80 percentile

50 percentile

20 percentile

Actual Inflow

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Infl

ow

Vo

lum

e (

GL

)

Burrendong Dam - 12 month inflows/statistical inflows

99 percentie

80 percentile

50 percentile

20 percentile

Actual Inflow

Inflows are consistent with rainfall

over the past 6 months. Actual

inflows for the last 6 months were

0.3GL which is less than 90% inflow

conditions.

Though there was some good rainfall in the catchment, Inflows were not as large as Burrendong over the past 12 month period. Actual inflow for the 12 months is 50GL which is wetter than 10th percentile until Nov 2016, however turned out to be drier than 80th percentile for rest of the year.

Rainfall and Inflow (dam)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17

Infl

ow

Vo

lum

e (

GL

)

Windamere Dam - 6 month inflows/statistical inflows

99 percentie

80 percentile

50 percentile

20 percentile

Actual Inflow

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Infl

ow

Vo

lum

e (

GL

)

Windamere Dam - 12 month inflows/statistical inflows

99 percentie

80 percentile

50 percentile

20 percentile

Actual Inflow

Operational Loss

Operational loss is water above that which could reasonably be expected to pass the

last extraction point on each given river/creek being supplied with regulated flow

(dam releases and controlled tributary inflows – not supplementary flows)

Macquarie

Sales +

Environm

ental

delivery

Operation

al Surplus

Actual Target

July 7,170 705 10% 5%

July-Aug 0% 5%

July-Sep 0% 5%

July-Oct 0% 5%

July-Nov 0% 5%

July-Dec 0% 5%

July-Jan 0% 5%

July-Feb 0% 5%

July-Mar 0% 5%

July-Apr 0% 5%

July-May 0% 5%

July-Jun 0% 5%

Cumulative Totals


Storage Forecast


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

End

of

Mo

nth

Sto

rage

Lev

el i

n %

Period

Burrendong Dam Forecast Storage Levels (assessment done end of July 2017)

Actual

Dry 80% COE

Median 50% COE

Wet 20% COE

Minimum 99% COE

• Plan to deliver about 400GL of

Licenced water in 2017-18

• Irrigation water orders are expected to

commence end of Oct 2017

• About 135GL will be delivered to

Marshes from both licenced and EWA

allocations in 2017-18.

• Next Delivery of S&D flows will likely

to be in Autumn 2018

• Minimal operational shortfalls and

Ops losses planned

• Water Order Debiting will be applied

to licence holders with a history of

over-ordering. Please see fact sheet

14 Sept 2017

WaterNSW Macquarie-Cudgegong Water Ops Report

System Operations Plan

http://www.waternsw.com.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/122685/Water-order-debiting_rev3.pdf

System Outage Plan

Dam maintenance impacting supply

• Planned outage – none.

• Fluctuations in river flows due to investigation works for

reinstating Cold Water Pollution temperature curtain.

Weirs


Regulators



Prognosis

Chances Of Improvement

The chances of improved General Security allocation, based on different

inflow scenarios are as follows:

Potential Inflow Conditions Macquarie

Total General Security AWD (%)

1-Nov-17 1-Feb-18

Dry

(80% inflows: 4

chances in 5)

38% and carry over

from 2016-17

38% and carry over from

2016-17

Average (50% inflows: 1

chances in 2)

44% and carry over

from 2016-17

56% and carry over from

2016-17

Wet (20% inflows: 1

chances in 5)

96% and remaining

carryover from 2016-17

after some spill

100% and remaining

carryover from 2016-17

after some spill


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