WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan

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c nsey epor :c nsey epor :Charting Our Water Future:Charting Our Water Future:

A Useful P lannin Tool? A Useful P lannin Tool?

Special Senior Advisor (Infrastructure and Water) Office of the President



Aggregated global gap between ex isting accessible, reliablesupply1 and 2030 w ater withdrawals, assuming no efficiency

6,900

900-40%CAGR

2%

Billion m3, 154 basins/regions

Municipal&

Domestic4,500

1,500

600

2,800

1004,200

Groundwater700

Agriculture

n ustry

Surface water3,100

4,500

3,500

Relevant supply quantity ismuch lower that the

absolute renewable water

availability in nature

Basins with

surplus

Basins with

deficits

Existing

accessible,Existing

withdrawals 2

2030

withdrawals 3

re a e,sustainable supply 11 Existing supply which can be provided for at 90% reliability, based on historical hydrology and infrastructure

investments scheduled through 2010; net of environmental requirements

2 Based on 2010 agricultural production analyses from IFPRI

3 Based on GDP o ulation ro ections and a ricultural roductions from IFPRI considers no water roductivit ains

between 2005‐2030



Aggregated global gap between ex isting accessible,reliable supply1 and 2030 w ater withdrawals, assuming no

6,900

900-

2%


Agriculture

Municipal&Domestic

4,5001,500

600

2,800

1004,200

Groundwater700

demand:India 1,195 B m3

Sub‐Saharan Africa 820 B m3

Agriculture

Industry

Surface water3,100

4,500

3,500

800Relevant supply quantity is

much lower that theabsolute renewable water

availability in nature

China 420 B m3

Basins withBasins with ExistingExisting2

20303 ,

reliable,sustainable supply 1

1 Existing supply which can be provided for at 90% reliability, based on historical hydrology and infrastructure



3 Based on GDP o ulation ro ections and a ricultural roductions from IFPRI considers no water roductivit aiins

between 2005‐2030



Aggregated global gap between ex isting accessible,reliable supply1 and 2030 w ater withdrawals, assuming

6,900

900-40%CAGR

2%


Municipal&

Domestic4,500

1,500

600

2,800

1004,200

Groundwater700

AgricultureSurface water

3,100

4,500

3,500

Relevant supply quantity ismuc h lower that the

absolute renewable waterava ilability in na ture

Basins with

surplus

Basins with

deficits

Existing

accessible,

reliable,

Existing

withdrawals 2

2030

withdrawals 3

sustainable supply 1




3 Based on GDP o ulation ro ections and a ricultural roductions from IFPRI considers no water roductivit aiins

between 2005‐2030



Aggregated global gap between ex isting accessible, reliablesupply1 and 2030 w ater withdrawals, assuming no efficiency

6,900

9 00-40%CAGR

2%


Municipal&Domestic

4,500

800

1,500

600

2,800

1004,200

Groundwater700

Agriculture

Surface water

3,100

4,500

3,500

Relevant supply qua ntity ismuch low er that the

absolute renewable waterava ilability in na ture

Basins withsurplus

Basins withdeficits

Existingaccessible,

reliable,

Existingwithdrawals 2

2030withdrawals 3

susta na e supply 1




3 Based on GDP, population projections and agricultural productions from IFPRI; considers no water productivity gaiins

between 2005‐2030



How do we close the supply-eman gap

water sector will provide solutions that are environmentallysustainable and economically viable.

The annual rate of efficiency improvement

in agriculture

and

industry =1%

Given this rate, improvements in agriculture and industry will

only address

20%

of

the

supply

‐demand

gap

by

2030.



Business-as-usual approaches w illno mee eman or raw wa er

Billion m3

ese ren s are

insufficient to close thegap:

- Depletion of fossilHistorical improvements

Demand with no productivityimprovements

8,000

7,000

Percent

20%

reserves

- Water for

environment isdrained

in water pro uctivity 1

Remaining gap

6,000

5,000

60%

- Demand will gounmet

ncrease n supp y2 un erbusiness-as-usual

Existing accessible,reliable supply3

Today 2

3,000

2030

20%



Representative demand- andsupp y-s e measures

Cost of measure

$/m3

0.70 - 0.90

0.04 - 0.21

Desalination

Typical groundwater

Agricultural measure –Irrigation scheduling

(0.12) - (0.02)

(0.60) - (0.30)Industrial measure –

paste tailings(mining)

Without a new, balanced approach, additional investment requirements in upstream

infrastructure will reach up to $200 Bil l ion over and above current levels –

.



Base-case demand, supply, corresponding

an gaps or e reg ona case s u es

1 Gap greater than demand supply difference due to mismatch between supply and demand at basin level

2 South Africa Agriculture demand includes a 3% contribution from afforestation

SOURCE: Water

2030

Resources

Group



The water availability cost curve and

spec e supp y- eman e c

Net marginal cost in 2030$/m3



IndiaWater availability cost curve



In Summary In Summary

We need to see major efficiency gains in

a ns mus a so come rom n us r a anMunicipal Systems

Water quality and volume are closely related



Transforming Country Water AgendasTransforming Country Water Agendas

Technical program of solutions across agencies and relatedsectors (food, water and energy)

Long-term structured management and change program to help

countries achieve their reform initiatives

Promote local governance measures in partnership with industryand communities

Develop benchmarks and monitor progress



a means or

Need to expand investments in waterstressed countries

Focus on:

• Higher efficiencies in Irrigated Agriculture

• Higher efficiencies in Industrial and Urban WaterUse

• Water Quality Improvements• Adapting Water Management to Climate Change



ocus on oun r es a areWater Stressed

• Agriculture: achieving higher efficiencies and“more crop per drop” - both irrigated and rain-fed areas

• Cities and industr : demand mana ement,non-revenue water reduction, and reuse

•

storage, allocation, and ecosystem services



• Environmental Sanitation: Designing business propositions

• Clean Up Programs and Projects: Restoration

of rivers, lakes, groundwater aquifers and coastal zones

•

the environment as an integral part ofinfrastructure



• Investing: in adaptation, and climate proofingprojects in basins and cities

• Risk management: water-related disasters

including floods, droughts, storms

• River basins: building resilience through

processes



repar ng e ew rogram

• Water Operations Plan: underpinning anexpanded investment program for 2011-2020

•

Partners Conference: Water Crisis and-,



Objectives:• Know ledge exchange with the Asia-Pacific Region and beyond Networking and partnering to address the region’s water challenges

Focus on ey issues inc u ing c imate c ange, energy- oo -water nexus Launch the successor Water Financing Program 2011-2020 with partners



Program:• 3 day technical program

• 6 Ke notes 12 Technical sessions 4 arallel themes on cities food

water quality, IWRM in river basins• Regional sessions and side events

• Targeting 500+ participants

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WC47 2009 Mckinsey Report: "Charting Our Water Future: A Useful Planning Tool?" by Arjun Thapan

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