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http://www.tompeters.com/reimagine/index.php
“We are in the midst of redefining our basic
ideas about what enterprise &
organization & even being human are
about -- how value is created -- how careers
are pursued”-2006
We are well into the next We are well into the next great wave of change---great wave of change---
February 08, 2005 Lax Natarajan & Sully Romero Ordonez 5
• Director of Emerging Thought • Chief Imagination Officer• Hacker Relations Manager • Human Interface Manager• Valuer of Intangible Assets
• Director of Emerging Thought • Chief Imagination Officer• Hacker Relations Manager • Human Interface Manager• Valuer of Intangible Assets
Likely jobs w/in next 10 yearsLikely jobs w/in next 10 years
Have Existed since 2003
Why bother with the future
"If you think that you can run an organization in the next 10 years… … as you've run it in the past 10 years…
you're out of your you're out of your mind."mind."
CEO, Coca Cola
““When the rate When the rate of change of change
outside your outside your company company
exceeds the exceeds the rate of change rate of change
inside your inside your company, company, disaster is disaster is imminent”imminent”
Lou Pritchet Senior VP, Procter & Gamble
What we were predicting 10 years ago….
What is being Predicted Now:
What the World Will Look Like in 2025
Looking to the future:common mistakes… Making predictions rather than
attaching probabilities to possibilities
Simply extrapolating current trends- (& in isolation of other trends/factors)
Thinking of only one future
Looking to the future: common mistakes…
Beginning in the 1980s examined 27,451 forecasts by 284 academics, pundits and other prognosticatorsThe study was complex, but the conclusion can be summarized simply: the experts bombed. Not only were they worse than statistical models, they could barely eke out a tie with the proverbial dart-throwing chimps.
The least accurate = hedgehogs: “thinkers who ‘know one big thing,’ aggressively extend the explanatory reach of that one big thing into new domains” and “display bristly impatience with those who ‘do not get it,’ ”
Better experts = foxes: thinkers who know many small things,
FUTURE BABBLEWhy Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You
Can Do BetterBy Dan Gardner
305 pp. Dutton. $26.95.
Consider the "Historical Record of Inane Inaccuracies"
“When faced with a totally new situation we tend to attach ourselves to the objects of the most recent past.
Marshall McLuhan
We look at the present through a rear view mirror”
“It has been moved and seconded that we stick our heads in the sand.”
The Newsonomics of Oblivion (March-2011)
Piecemeal change is a dead-end, given the
converging downward spirals of the business.
Only massive, digital-first strategies and re-
organizations that scrap old structures, budgets, job
descriptions — and, massively, costs
The Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard
Rupert Murdoch iPad daily:
…in the ol’ 2nd Wave World People Subscribed to Media
The point is not so much to predict “the” future…
but to prepare for various contingencies Based on probable
patterns of established trends
The point is not so much to predict “the” future…
but to prepare for various contingencies Based on probable
patterns of established trends
How best to prepare for the future
The Trends are very clear:Increasing: Technological capabilities &
capacities Computing (AI & BI); Nano & Bio-tech;
Communication & Transportation… Population
Decreasing: Resources Separation – Economic, Psycho &
Socio….near total of privacy…
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
%of GNP
1850 1950 2050
AgricultureManufacturingServices
Long term trends are very clear--
Law of Accelerating Returns
4 Factors Impacting Future Forecasting Accuracy:
Continuous Advance of:
1) Info-Processing Power
2) Data & Text -Algorithms
3) Sensor data
4) Individuals in the InfoSphere
Ergo: How best to think about the future?
Think of the drivers of change
Use the drivers to imagine different scenarios of the future
Imagine perhaps three; each should be plausible but different
Extrapolate back from those future scenarios to think about what to do now to prepare
TechnoSphere InfoSphere SocioSphere PsychoSphere Bio & PowerSpheres
TechnoSphere InfoSphere SocioSphere PsychoSphere Bio & PowerSpheres
What “Drivers” Have We Observed?
What “Drivers” Have We Observed?
TechnoSphere DriversTechnoSphere Drivers
Ubiquitous- Imbedded Intelligence
Ubiquitous- Imbedded Intelligence
Information technology will transform our day-to-day lives.
"The big trends - - availability of cheap sensors - cheap computing power & ubiquitous connectivity -
by 2020 everything large enough to carry a microchip probably will, & from there the possibilities are endless-
http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/0,15047,1299021,00.html
•Intelligent Tech•Convergent Media
Radar Networks
Connections between people
Social Networking
Groupware
JavascriptWeblogs
Databases
File Systems
HTTPKeyword Search
USENET
Wikis
Websites
Directory Portals
Web 1.0 1990 - 2000
PC Era 1980 - 1990
RSSWidgets
PC’s
Office 2.0
XML
RDF
SPARQLAJAX
FTP IRC
SOAP
Mashups
File Servers
Social Media Sharing
Lightweight Collaboration
ATOM
Web 4.0
Semantic SearchSemantic Databases
Distributed Search
Intelligent personal agents
JavaSaaS
Web 2.0 Flash
OWL
HTML
SGML
SQLGopher
P2P
The Web
The PC
Windows
MacOS
SWRL
OpenID
BBS
MMO’s
VR
Semantic Web
Intelligent Web
The Internet
Social Web
Web OS
Connections between Information
2000 - 2010
2020 - 2030
Web 3.0 2010 - 2020
35Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Change is now underway
36Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Interactive marketing will near $55 billion by 2014
The New Media The New Media
•Created & controlled by the Consumer
•All about individual interests & expression
replaced by
Marketing in the New Economy
New Engage Sense Process Respond
New Engage Sense Process Respond
TraditionalTraditional Make Price Distribute Promote
TraditionalTraditional Make Price Distribute Promote
Discussion guided- Data Driven -
Source: March 12, 2010, “Defining Social Intelligence” Forrester report
DRIVES
INSPIRES
CREATES
INFORMS
Social Media is Just One Piece
Social Media is not magic.
Joining Facebook (or Twitter, or LinkedIn) will not revolutionize your company or your marketing.
If you are BORING in real life,you are still boring in social media.
If you think social mediawill fix your business…
You’re notsmellingthe bullsh*t.
Get your noseexamined.
You still need to:identify your audience.get them to notice you.create value for them.sell something to them.keep them happy.
None of this has changed.
There are MANY marketing tools.
Use them all together for the best results.
Incorporate a Full Mix of Media
Paid Media“The Catalyst”
Owned Media“The Portable Brand”
Earned Media“The Result”
Integrated marketing weaves together multiple elements
Consumer buying cycle
Engagement Experience Relationship
Mass media
New Media
Social networking
“Adver-vising”
Call center
Direct & EmailCRM
Events
Social marketing
Off & On-linePromotion
New Business Model Tenets
Leverage Economies of the Long Tail
Utilize OPEN Source & Cloud Services
Use Peer production (UGC), Networking & Collaboration
Leverage Collective Intelligence
Pass Labor +Resource Savings to Customer
Permission Consumers choose w/ whom & when to engage
Personal Consumers tap self selected networks
Precise Communicate/relate w/ consumers in Real time & @ Right time
Partip-ulation Consumers participate in own manipulation
The best way to predict the future is to invent it–
Alan Kay--‘Father’ of the PC and GUI interface
“computer in a pen”
Concluding Predictions