We Have Done It Before and We Could Do It Again

Dardenne Presbyterian Church

Elders Gathering

November 13, 2015St. Louis, MO

June 6, 1946

90,000 School ChildrenGovernor of NY, Supreme Court

Justice, Mayor of Brooklyn

117th Sunday School Parade

The Presbyterian Picture Today

Ruling Elders

Mainline Membership Loss1965 1980 1990 2000 2010

American Baptists 1,535,971 1,607,541 1,535,971 1,436,909 1,337,127

Christian Church (Disciples)

1,918,471 1,177,984 1,039,692 820,286 661,544

Episcopal Church 3,429,153 2,786,004 2,446,050 2,311,398 2,125,012

Evangelical Lutheran Church

5,684,298 5,384,271 5,240,739 5,125,919 4,637,887

Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.)

4,254,597 3,272,518 2,856,713 2,525,330 2,016,091

Reformed Church in America

385,754 345,532 326,850 289,392 250.000

United Church of Christ

2,070,413 1,736,244 1,599,212 1,377,320 1,080,199

United Methodist Church

11,067,497 9,519,407 8,904,824 8,340,954 7,837,987

United States Census DataYear Population % of Change

1960 179.3 million

1970 203.3 million 13.4%

1980 226.5 million 11.4%

1990 248.7 million 9.8%

2000 281.0 million 13%

2005 300.0 million 6.8%

2010 309.0 million 3%

Yet, Some Are Growing or Were

1965 1980 1990 2000 2014

Assemblies of God

572,123 1,064,490 2,181,502 2,577,560 3,146,741

Catholic Church

46,246,175 50,449,842 58,568,015 63,683,030 69.4

Mormon Church

1,789,175 2,811,000 3,736,000 4,679,110 6.5

So. Baptist

Convention

10,770,573 13,600,126 15,038,049 15,960,308 15.5

90% of Presbyterian Congregations Have Reached a

Plateau or are Declining.

PC(USA) Congregations and Membership

# of Congregations Reported Membership

2014 9,829 1,667,767

2010 10,560 2,016,091

2003 11,064 2,405,311

2002 11,097 2,451,969

2001 11,141 2,493,781

Congregations Have Left

2012 – 110

2013 – 148

2014 - 101

Congregations Dissolved

2012 - 862013 - 74

2014 – 110

WHY?

1. Finding and Keeping Young Adults

Decline in Children’s Baptisms PCUSA

1999 41,009

2000 39,444

2001 37,409

2002 36,930

2003 35,237

2004 33,616

2014 17,027

Child Baptism Numbers Other Years

1982 52,184

1985 49,712

1988 47,978

1991 46,744

Decline of Infant Baptisms

1983 – 50,785

2010 – 22,480

2014 - 17,027

Confirmation Class

Infant Baptisms - 1983

50,785

?????

Professions of Faith Under 17 in 1997

Infant Baptisms (1983)

50,785

Professions of Faith

(1997)People Under Age 17

31,999

Sources of Decline

• Fewer Young Adults

• Fewer Children Baptized

• Fewer Children Retained Until Confirmation

Implications for a Church?

Not Dardenne’s Story?

What Drives That for You?

What Passion Exists That Sustains That?

2. Where are our Professions of Faith?

Comparative Statistics

PCUS PCUSA Methodist S. Baptist

1885 7.3 6.6 10.1 6.4

1895 6.6 7.2 9.6 6.1

1905 4.5 5.6 7.0 5.5

1915 6.0 7.5 8.6 6.2

1925 5.2 5.7 5.3 6.1

Narrative on the State of Religion

Have there been any special manifestations of the Holy Spirit’s power in

your church either by conversion or by increased

activity in church work?

J. Wilbur Chapman

Billy Sunday

PCUS/PCUSA Baptisms

PCUS Adult Baptisms Infant Baptisms

1915 8,998 5,761

1925 15,532 7,247

1935 9,400 5,270

1945 12,035 9,559

1955 15,131 17,576

PCUSA

2003 10,174 35,237

2004 10,459 33,616

2014 4,634 17,027

Baptisms Now?

79%Children

21%Adults

Are We Doing Evangelism Anymore?

Martha Grace Reese

Baptizing 1% of Your Worship Attendance

Each Year for 5 Years.

30,000 Congregations studied

150 met the criterion

Implications at Dardenne?

3. The Back Door

Largest Category of Loss?

“Other” - Those Going Inactive

How We Are Exiting

Certificate Death Other

1985 59,981 43,007 132,345

1996 39,779 40,862 116,637

1999 36,156 41,164 106,419

2003 29,717 37,840 112,624

2014 51,352 28,389 78,107

More than 3 million

Inactive List Since 1983

Get People Connected

We Have Only Around 6 Months to Connect

People or We Lose Them

7 People Knowing Their Names

Implications for the Back Door?

4. New Church Development

PCUSA Churches

Organized Dissolved

1997 28 61

1998 24 45

1999 15 42

2000 22 47

2001 24 53

2002 27 58

2003 22 47

2004 22 63

2014 15 110

PCUS – 1908

88 New Congregations in 287,000 members

Narrative on the State of Religion

How are you establishing your church beyond its

bounds?

Review of the Picture Today

• We can’t keep young adults.• We don’t have the children of those young

adults.• We lose 40% of the children we baptize

before confirmation.• We don’t reach the unchurched in the

proportions of old.• We lose so many we do reach; the backdoor

is like an airplane hangar.• We have a tumble down effect creating fewer

churches able to afford full time pastors.• We begin few New Church Developments.

History of the Evangelistic Methods of Presbyterianism

• Revivalism

History of the Evangelistic Methods of Presbyterianism

• Revivalism

• Sunday school

History of the Evangelistic Methods of Presbyterianism

• Revivalism

• Sunday school

• Outpost Sunday schools – New Church Development

History of the Evangelistic Methods of Presbyterianism

• Revivalism

• Sunday school

• Outpost Sunday schools – New Church Development

• Personal work

History of the Evangelistic Methods of Presbyterianism

• Revivalism

• Sunday school

• Outpost Sunday schools – New Church Development

• Personal work

• Pastoral roles

History of the Evangelistic Methods of Presbyterianism

• Revivalism

• Sunday school

• Outpost Sunday schools – New Church Development

• Personal work

• Pastoral roles

• Denominational Expectations

1950s PCUS Broader Definition

“Evangelism is all the Church is and does to present Christ Jesus, through the power of the Holy Spirit, that man may put their trust in God through Him, receive Him as Savior from the guilt and power of sin, and serve Him as Lord in the fellowship of the Church.”

Present Condition

• Lack of agreement of definition.

Present Condition

• Lack of agreement of definition.

• Lack of monies devoted to evangelism.

Present Condition

• Lack of agreement of definition.

• Lack of monies devoted to evangelism.

• Lack of any definitive program of evangelism.

Present Condition

• Lack of agreement of definition.

• Lack of monies devoted to evangelism.

• Lack of any definitive program of evangelism.

• Lack of passion for the lost because we are not sure anyone is lost.

Present Condition

• Lack of agreement of definition.

• Lack of monies devoted to evangelism.

• Lack of any definitive program of evangelism.

• Lack of passion for the lost because we are not sure anyone is lost.

• Lack of confidence in our methods and message.

Present Condition

• Lack of agreement of definition.• Lack of monies devoted to evangelism.• Lack of any definitive program of

evangelism.• Lack of passion for the lost because we

are not sure anyone is lost.• Lack of confidence in our methods and

message.• Lots of dying churches – 90% declining or

static.

Little Bo Peep

Little Bo Peep has lost her sheep

And can’t tell where to find them;

Leave them alone, and they’ll come home,

And bring their tails behind them.

Howwill a passioncome or come back?

Will it come from

desperation or conviction?

The Future

So what do we do?

A missional church is more than a

missions-minded

church.

She Saw Reality

Little Bo Peep fell fast asleep,

And dreamt she heard them bleating;

But when she awoke, she found it a joke,

For they were still all fleeting.

She Changed Her Behavior

Then up she took her little crook,

Determined for to find them;

She found them indeed, but it made her heart bleed,

For they’d left their tails behind them.

You Are Not Alone – God is Here