Weather and Decision Support for Emergency Managers

Todd Morris NOAA/NWS

Salt Lake City, UT801.803.4011

and Jay Rosenthal

Air, Weather & Sea Conditions, Inc.818.645.8632

93rd AMS Annual MeetingAustin, TX

January 6-10, 2013

SuperStorm SandyOctober 29, 2012

2011 Weather Extremes

Weather Impacts

Motivation for this talkEmergency responders/planners know weather is

important but don’t always know, how, why, where, or when

The NWS is committed to helping with disaster response, and has developed many valuable tools and processes for helping emergency responders

OutlineWeather – A Decisive Factor for Emergency ResponseMeteorology 101 Concepts for Emergency ManagersOperationally Available Forecasts & Emergency ResponsePlanning/Real-Time Information

Weather Can Be Decisive Factor for Emergency Response

Who will be in harms way?Damage & lethality?Plume model inputs? Emergency operations?Will conditions change?Terrain, coastal & altitude factors?Humidity, temp., clouds, wind?Are all decision-makers/responders using the same representative meteorological data?

Are historical data of value?

Variability of Weather ParametersSeasonal

Summer stratusSanta Ana’s

DiurnalSea BreezesDrainage windsDaily stratus “burn-off”

Hourly

TheImpact

OfChanging

Winds

From NARAC, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Satellite Imagery and UtilitySeasonal and Diurnal Patterns of Cloud Cover

Day vs. NightMorning vs. Afternoon

ImplicationsRadar PropagationCommunications

Operationally Available Forecasts• Website

• www.weather.gov

•Formats• Narrative• Table/Graph• Gridded

• HAZMAT• Spot Forecast

GIS Compatible Digital Forecast Datahttp://www.wrh.noaa.gov/gis/index.php

Derived from NWS gridded forecasts

Resolution is 2.5kmAvailable for download in

shape file format3-hrly intervalsOut to 7 days

At least 12 sensible weather elements

NWS continues expanding on this capability

July 11, 2007 Weather Support to Forensic Intelligence

Fire boundariesshown for aerialextent comparison

Piru (2003)

Simi (2003)

Topanga (2005)

Wind Speed and Direction in GIS

Decision Support ServicesWhat Can Be DoneVirtual conferencesTown hall meetings

WCMsOn-site support

Incident Meteorologists

Partner E-mails“Heads-up” notice3-7 days in advanceThreat Defined

LocationConditionTimingImpactsConfidence

Weather StoriesGraphical storyRelays important/concise

informationImpactsTiming

Coordinated with other legacy NWS products

Digital Data and Hazard ViewerOnline mapping toolBrings together

Weather forecast information

Hazard planning dataAllows better

understanding of the impacts

Graphical Travel Web PagesProvides graphical weather

forecast informationFor well traveled roadways

Derived from local office digital forecast database

Hazards depicted on a scale from none to extreme

Statewide Weather PagesBrings together all-hazards

weather data for a state on one pageWeather storiesRadar dataWatch/warning/advisory

mapU.S. hazards assessment

map

Social MediaFacebookTwitterYouTube

TakeawaysWeather is obviously important to emergency

responders/plannersDon’t always know, how, why, where, or when

NWS is committed to helpingDisaster responseReal-time on-site support

Incident meteorologistDeveloped many valuable tools and processes

Questions?