27/11/2019
Weather data to identify and
maximize a plant’s solar bankability
in the planning phase
Marion Lafuma
Business Development Manager, Reuniwatt
French-German Office for Renewable Energies
Conference: Call for tenders in France and Germany for ground PV plants: costs and conditions
Introduction to the necessity of
reliable weather data
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Reuniwatt, a leader in resource assessment, cloud
observation and forecasting
3
■ Founded 2010 in Reunion Island
(France), Business offices in Paris and
Toulouse
■ Addressing the entire solar energy’s
value chain with solutions available
worldwide
– From solar resource assessment
(planning phase) to detailed design
(pre-operational phase) to live
production (operational phase)
– Offering value-added solar
irradiance/PV production
measurements and forecasts in SaaS
mode
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Reliable data for reliable outcomes
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■ Using flawed data leads to suboptimal decision-making
■ In the planning phase, this means that using reliable weather data is
strategic to assess a solar plant’s:
– Feasibility
– Profitability
– Risk
Faulty dataFlawed
conclusionsUnfortunate
decisions
Unambiguous Key Performance Indicators
Origins of solar resource uncertainty
Spatial
variability
(0-1%)
Monitoring period representativeness
(0.5-2%)
Inter-annual variability
(2-15%)
Measurement uncertainty
(2-15%)
27/11/2019 5Source: AWS Truepower
Solar resource uncertainty leads to financial
shortfalls
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Power in MW 1 10 20 30 50
Turnover (k€/year) 78 780 1 560 2 340 3 900
1% error (k€/year) 1 8 16 23 39
1% error for a 25-year period (k€)
20 195 390 585 975
10% error (k€/year) 8 78 156 234 390
10% error for a 25-year period (k€)
195 1 950 3 900 5 850 9 750
PPA in France 60 €/MWh
Solar potential 1 300 kWh/kWp
Source: Reuniwatt
Reliable solar data in the planning
phase
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Weather data within a solar plant’s lifecycle
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Pla
nn
ing
ph
ase
Source: Reuniwatt
Site identification
■ Which area offers the best irradiation
potential?
■ World irradiation maps
■ Long-term irradiance data through satellite
archives
■ Also check: water and lakes, national and
regional parks, source points, electricity
lines…
27/11/2019 9Source: Reuniwatt
Pre-planning / Solar resource assessment
■ Which specific site offers the best irradiation
potential within the determined area?
■ Long-term irradiance data through satellite
archives
■ On-site irradiance measurement campaigns
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Financing / Project bankability
■ Is my project as bankable as anticipated?
■ On-site irradiance measurement campaigns
■ Validation of plant / battery sizing to
confirm the project’s bankability through
forecast backtests
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Design & Engineering
■ Are live data confirming the previous
hypotheses?
■ On-site live GHI / GTI measurements
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Satellite data vs. ground data
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Pros & Cons of ground data vs satellite data
Ground data Satellite data
Temporal resolution Up to 30s 10 min at best
Spatial resolution 10m Up to 1km²
Coverage At least 1 instrument per site World
Maintenance Yes, very frequent (dirt, dust, bird
droppings, condensation, icing,
vegetation…)
No
Calibration
frequency
Required at least once a year No
Calibration quality Dependent on the final user Independent (space agencies)
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Satellite data: irradiance data everywhere
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Areas covered by SunSat™ live
Area America Europe-Africa Middle East / Indian Ocean
Western Pacific / Oceania
Spatial resolution 0.5-1 km 1-3 km 1-3 km 0.5-1 km
Finest time sampling 15 min. (5min. for USA) 15 min. 15 min. 10 min.
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Source: Reuniwatt
Satellite data vs. on-site measurements
■ Satellite-based irradiance estimations are as accurate as on-site measurements for
long periods of time (>1 month)
■ No hardware maintenance or calibration is required
1627/11/2019 Source: Reuniwatt
Climate change impact
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Different outcomes depending on different
climate projections
■ We can “forecast” the weather:
we know how the atmospheric
state will evolve in the coming
hours and days
■ We do not know how the
whole Earth, humanity, and
the “climate system”
(Atmosphere, Oceans, Ice,
Biosphere, etc.) will evolve in
the next 100 years
■ Different “Representative
Concentration Pathways”
(RCP) exist, depending on the
considered scenario
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Source: Neil Craik, University of Waterloo
The impacts of climate change on the
European PV sector
■ Scenario of high-PV penetration by the end of the century
■ A general and progressive decline of the generated PV power is found in all regions along the entire period
■ For Northern, Western and Central Europe (regions 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6)
– RCP 4.5: Ensemble mean projected changes up to −3%
– RCP 8.5: Ensemble mean projected changes up to −6%
■ For France (region 9)
– RCP 4.5: changes up to −2%
– RCP 8.5: changes up to −3%
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Source: Nature Communications, “The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe”
In grey shadows: spatial density (in %) of the distribution of the
PV power-installed capacity by the year 2050
The consequences of climate change on the
PV sector to be expected
■ More aerosols (mostly due to increased pollution) leading to less clear skies, but less clouds to be expected
■ Some areas / continents will have a higher GHI while others will have a lesser one
– Not so many changes on a global scale
– Potentially higher impacts locally
■ In Europe, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of the continent, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector
■ The real threats lie in more frequent extreme weather events (floods, droughts, storms…), the overwhelming collapse of biodiversity or the increasing number of climate refugees
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Conclusion
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Conclusion
■ Reliable weather data is crucial in the planning phase but not just!
■ It is necessary all along a plant’s lifetime:
– To provide the most accurate forecasts
– To assess a plant’s performance
– To identify malfunctions
– To set up analytics and reporting
– To beneficiate from insurance
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Would you like more information?
Do not hesitate to contact us.
Contact
23
Marion Lafuma,
Business Development Manager
E-mail: [email protected]
Phone: +33 9 77 21 61 50
Website: www.reuniwatt.com
This document is strictly confidential and intended solely for the recipients. Please do not disclose to third parties.
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