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Weather Model Development for Aviation Stan Benjamin and Steve Weygandt: Assimilation and Modeling Branch, Chief/Deputy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO Stan/Steve: Lead/Expert Model Development and Enhancement Product Development Team, AWRP/FAA
12h NOAA HRRR model forecastValid 03z
NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 1Aviation Model Development
Observed radar03z June 30 2012
An Important Pinpoint Prediction Challenge: The 29 June 2012 Mid-Atlantic Derecho
A fast-moving damaging wind event…
700 mile long swath of damage, 5 million without
power, 22 fatalities
2 PM 4 PM 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MID11 AM
StartHRRRrun
Computer weather modeling:What is the potential?
HRRR 2012 derecho loop
Observed radarHRRR forecast initialized 15z (11am Eastern Time)
29 June 2012 – Mid-Atlantic/DC thunderstorm/derecho event
Computer weather modeling:How is it done?
4
Weather computer
model:Solve physics
equations
at many points repeatedly to mimic time-
evolution of 3-D of temperature, wind, moisture,
clouds, etc.
1800 points
1060 p
oin
ts
Model Terrain
1800 x 1060 pointsx 50 levels
= 95,000,000 3-d points every 20 seconds
50- levels
Model Equations
NOAA Next-Generation Model Development
RAP
HRRR
RAP - Rapid Refresh – NOAA “situational awareness” model
for high impact weather– New 18-hour forecast each hour– NOAA operational – 1 May 2012– Hourly use by National Weather
Service, Storm Prediction Center, FAA, private sector
HRRR – High-ResolutionRapid Refresh
- Next-generation storm/energy/aviation guidance
- New 15-h forecast each hour- Real-time experimental on ESRL
supercomputer- Open ftp access
RAP and HRRR data assimilation
6
RAP
Data Assimilation cycle
Observations
Hourly cycling model
HRRR
EnKF-Hybrid +Radar andCloud anx Radar and
Cloud anx+ 3DVAR
Operational Prediction Process
Observations
ObjectiveAnalysis(adjust background)
ModelPrediction
AnalysisUpdate Cycle
HumanForecaster
Statistical post-processing
(downscaling, probability)
Data Assimilation
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesRapid updating – Why do it?
Betterforecasts
6 AM time9 AM noon 3 PM 6 PM
12-h fcst
Truth
12-h update to previous forecast
More frequentmodel updateswith newer obs
Smaller adjustments
9-h fcst
6-h fcst
3-h fcst
3-h update to previous forecast
Next forecast
Benefits of Rapid Cycling NWPRapid update cycling with latest observations
improves short-range forecasts (including upper-level winds)
RUC jet-level (35 kft) wind forecast errors
3-h fcstwind errors
6-h fcstwind errors
12-h fcst wind errors
LAX
ORD
LAX
ORD
LAX
ORD
NOAA/ESRL/GSD 12 July 2012 9Aviation Model DevelopmentNOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 9Aviation Model Development
RAP error reduction to 1-h forecast
1h 3 6 1218h
Rapid RefreshWind forecastaccuracy vs.
forecast length
The Rapid Refresh is able to use recent obs to improve forecast skill down to 1-h projection
1 Jan - 7 Mar 2012- Verification against weather balloon data
NCEP Production Suite Review 4-5 December 2012Rapid Refresh / HRRR 10NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 10Aviation Model Development
Rapid RefreshHourly Update Cycle
1-hrfcst
1-hrfcst
1-hrfcst
11 12 13Time (UTC)
AnalysisFields
3DVAR
Obs
3DVAR
Obs
Back-groundFields
Partial cycle atmospheric fields – introduce GFS information 2x/dayCycle hydrometeorsFully cycle all land-sfc fields(soil temp, moisture, snow)
Hourly Observations RAP 2013 N. Amer
Rawinsonde (T,V,RH) 120
Profiler – NOAA Network (V) 21
Profiler – 915 MHz (V, Tv) 25
Radar – VAD (V) 125
Radar reflectivity - CONUS 1km
Lightning (proxy reflectivity) NLDN, GLD360
Aircraft (V,T) 2-15K
Aircraft - WVSS (RH) 0-800
Surface/METAR (T,Td,V,ps,cloud, vis, wx) 2200- 2500
Buoys/ships (V, ps) 200-400
Mesonet (T, Td, V, ps) flagged
GOES AMVs (V) 2000- 4000
AMSU/HIRS/MHS radiances Used
GOES cloud-top press/temp 13km
GPS – Precipitable water 260
WindSat scatterometer 2-10K
Nacelle/Tower/Sodar 20/100/10
Observations assimilated in hourly updated models (Rapid Refresh)- All used to initialize 3km HRRR
Radar reflectivity
12
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHigh Resolution – Why do we need it?
RAP
HRRR
Thunderstorm
~3km horizontal resolution needed to “resolve” thunderstorms
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHigh Resolution – Why do we need it?
RAP
HRRR
Thunderstorm
~3km horizontal resolution needed to “resolve” thunderstorms
~3km horizontal resolution needed to “resolve” thunderstorms
…but 4x resolution costs 64x computer power
13-km 6hr forecast HRRR 6hr forecast
13-kmResolution
ParameterizedConvection
3-kmResolution
ExplicitConvection
5 PM EDTobserved
07 June 2012NO
STORM STRUCTURE
NO ESTIMATE OFSTORM
PERMEABILITY
ACCURATESTORM
STRUCTURE
ACCURATE ESTIMATEOF STORM
PERMABILITY
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones3-km HRRR – what it gets you...
Radar Obs06:00z
18 May 201305z + 1 hour
Radar data assimilation: Getting storms in the right places
1-hr fcstradar DA(13-km and 3-
km)
1-hr fcstNO radar DA
• Run model backwards in time (reversible processes only)• Run model forward in time (heating from radar observations) • Digital filter after backward and forward step
Forward integration,full physics with obs-based latent heating
-20 min -10 min Initial +10 min + 20 min
RAP / HRRR model forecast
Backwards integration, no physics
Initial fields with improved balance, storm-scale circulation
17
Radar data assimilation: How it works for RAP and HRRR
NO backward step or filter
for HRRR
00z init00z 12 Aug
2011
Convergence Cross-Section
RAPHRRR
RADAR
RAPHRRR
no radar
Rapid convective spin-up with radar data
Radar data assimilation: How it works for RAP
Reflectivity
+1 hr fcst01z 12 Aug
2011
Convergence Cross-Section
RAPHRRR
RADAR
RAPHRRR
no radar
Rapid convective spin-up with radar data
Radar data assimilation: How it works for RAP
Reflectivity
Cloud and Hydrometeor Analysis
Hydrometeor designation from radar
Adjust cycled explicit cloud fields using METAR and
satellite data
YES HM
29th Conf on EIPT (IIPS) 08 January 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 20NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 20Aviation Model Development
Observations
Data Assimilation Cycle
Rapid cyclingNWP
Data Assimilation and Rapid Cycling Numerical Weather Prediction (model)
Air transportation (NextGen)
Detailed, precise short-range weather guidance needed for:
Required for improved weather guidance for:• Turbulence• Ceiling/visibility• Convective weather• Icing• Terminal/enroute weatherSafety and efficiency
Aviation hazard forecasts – all based on RAP and HRRR models (out to 15-18h)
Hourly updated 13km Rapid Refresh model forecasts
(development supported by FAA/MDE, NOAA)
Refreshing from latest observations every hour gives better accuracy
23
Subset of full domain
An example of computations needed1800x1059x50 grid points = 95 E6 grid pointsx 50,000 floating pt ops per grid point = 4.75 E12 FPA / time stepx 2160 time steps / 12h forecast = 10 E15 FPA / 12h forecast
10,000,000,000,000,000 calculations for one12h HRRR CONUS forecast
Weather computer model: Solving physics equations on many points repeatedly to provide 3-D forecast forecast of temperature, wind, moisture, clouds, etc.
1800 points
1060 points
Model Version Initialized Forecast Length Run Time # CPUs Disk Space
RAP WRFv3.3.1+ Hourly 18 hrs ~30 min 200 230 GB (per run)
HRRR WRFv3.3.1+ Hourly 15 hrs ~50 min 1128 800 GB (per run)
Model Run at: Domain Grid Points
Grid Spacing
Vertical Levels
Height Lowest Level
Pressure Top Initialized
RAP GSD,NCO
North America
758 x 567 13 km 50 8 m 10 mb Hourly
(cycled)
HRRR GSD CONUS 1799 x 1059 3 km 50 8 m 20 mb Hourly
(no-cycle)
RAP and HRRR Resources
CW Overview Meeting 12 June 2012High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 24
NOAAHigh-Performance Computer System
Number of Filesystems
Total Reserved Disk Space CPU Type Total Reserved
CPUsPerformance
Increase
Jet (current) 4 150 TB Intel Nehalem 1736 -
Zeus (new) 2 230 TB Intel Westmere 2000-4000 30%
NOAA/ESRL/GSD 12 July 2012 24Aviation Model DevelopmentNOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 24Aviation Model Development