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Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales...

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Page 1: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.
Page 2: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Weather Normalized

Sales

Indicators for each Segment

Monte Carlo Simulation

Growth rate of MWH Sales

Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections

Projected Financial Reports

Used P/E valuation

Developed a PEER group of competitors of

GXP

Intrinsic Value

Valuation Steps

Page 3: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Current Price: $19.93Price Target: $20.15Upside: 1.10%Recommendation: Hold

Comprehensive Energy Plan

Upcoming rate cases

Capital Expenditures remain steady

Financial Valuation

Market Profile

52 Week Price Range $16.63-20.14

Average Daily Volume (3m)

960,316

Beta (Est.) 0.78

Dividend Yield (Est.) 4.13%

Shares Outstanding 135.65 M

Market Capitalization $2.7 B

Institutional Holdings 65.50%

Insider Holdings 0.26%

Book Value per Share $21.55

Debt to Total Capital 43.1%

Return on Equity 7.9%

Recommendation: Hold Shares of GXP

Source: Company Reports and Key Capital Estimates

Page 4: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Comprehensive Energy Plan at a glance

• 100 MW plant in Spearville, KSWind

• Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) unit at Lacynge I

Lacynge Environmental

• Air Quality Control System at Iatan IIatan I

Environmental

• Construction of Iatan II-Super Critical Coal Plant Iatan II

Page 5: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Iatan2

Increase in Wholesale Revenue

Decrease in Purchasing

Electrical Power

Reliable Electricity

Generation

Lower Cost from Coal

Generation

Increase In Asset Base

Successful Completion of Comprehensive Plan

Major driver for rate increase

Page 6: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Rate Jurisdiction

Rate Increase

Rate Increase Percentage

Rate Base Effective Rate

GMO (MPS) $75.8 M 14.4% $1,469 M 6/4/2011

GMO (L&P) $22.1 M 13.9% $422 M 6/4/2011

KCP&L(MO) $92.1 M 13.8% $2,123 M 5/4/2011

•In the recent rate case outcome for KCP&L (KS), the company was granted 4.6% rate increase compared to a request of 11.5%.

•In November 2010, MPSC staff filed recommendation suggesting return on equity in the range of 8.5% -9%. This is well below the requested ROE of 11%.

Uncertain outcomes for upcoming rate cases

Source: Company Reports

Page 7: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Capital investments are expected to remain steady

• Best Available Retrofit Technology (BART) will cost between $800-900 million. • Transmission investments include a proposed 170-mile 345-kV line costing approximately $380 million.

•Possible involvement in building of an additional Nuclear Plant in Callaway estimated total cost as of 2008 for all the partners is estimated at $6 Billion.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Total Projected Capital Expenditures $652 M $679 M $672 M $668 M $673 M

Source: Company Reports and Key Capital Estimates

Page 8: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Source: Company Reports and Key Capital Estimates

Financial Valuation of Great Plains Energy

Key Assumptions of our Model

Page 9: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

The Powder River Basin prices for coal have remained stable

Source: EIA

Page 10: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Source: Company Reports and Key Capital Estimates

Years FCF/S CFO/S

2009 ($4.44) $2.58

2010E ($0.47) $5.18

2011E ($1.06) $4.79

2012E ($3.77) $1.74

2013E ($1.36) $3.85

2014E ($1.31) $3.93

Projected FCF/S and CFO/S

Source: Company Reports and Key Capital Estimates

Cash flow and Income Statement Data for GXP

Page 11: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Industry vs. GXP

Source: Yahoo

Page 12: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

PEER Group vs. GXP

Ameren Westar Energy

Great Plains Energy

Empire District Electric Company

Market value $6B $2B $2B 904MPrice Information $28.89 $26.27 19.72 $21.8

EPS $.71 $1.86 $1.69 $1.15P/E Ratio 40.69 14.42 11.67 18.96

Dividend Yield 5.35 4.72 4.21 5.9

Analyst Forecasts

Forecasted Earning Growth

-2.01% 43.92% 36.92% 6.14%

Growth rate Relative to industry

-7.87% 38.06% 31.05% .28%

Source: NASDAQ

Page 13: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

•Forward P/E Valuation and PEER Group show small discount relative to GXP current share price

Source: Company’s Reports and Key Capital Estimates

Valuation based on P/E multiple

Page 14: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Investment Risks Great Plains

• Natural Disasters • System Failures • Inability to cover costs

Operational

• Unfavorable weather• Power Outages• Property Damage

Variation in Weather

• $484 M in notes are maturing in 2011• Mandatory convertible notes of $287.5 M

to common stock are maturing 2012• Pension Fund Obligations-Underfunded

Financial Risk

• KCC and MSPC lag increases in fuel costs• EPA could deny retrofit permits• FERC could deny short term debt

authorization

Regulatory

Page 15: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Recommendation: HoldCurrent Price: $19.93Price Target: $20.15Upside: 1.10%

Successful completion of Iatan

II.

Uncertainty of upcoming rate cases

in MO.

High projected capital expenditures in

environmental retrofits.

Financial Valuation cautions investors

to Hold

Current Price: $19.93Price Target: $20.15

Recommendation: Hold

Upside of 1.10% is not enough to compensate investors based on our forward P/E valuation.

Comprehensive Energy Plan

Upcoming rate cases

Capital Expenditures remain steady

Financial Valuation

Page 16: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Company Information

Industry Information

Financial information

Page 17: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Company Information

Page 18: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

• Incorporated in 2001• The holding company of

KCP&L and GMO.• Operates under the brand

name KCP&L.• Primary source of business

comes from Electric Utility. • Acquired Aquila in July of

2008. • Serves over 820,000

customers in Missouri and Kansas

Page 19: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Source: Company Reports and Key Capital Estimates

Sale of Strategic Energy and Acquisition of Aquila Points

• Great Plains netted $102.6 M from the sale of Strategic Energy in 4/3/2008. This resulted in a loss of earnings of 0.26 cents a share.

• Acquisition of Aquila was completed in 7/15/2008. During the transaction Aquila shareholders were compensated with 1.80 in cash and .0856 shares of Great Plains. This resulted in earnings per share dilution of 0.28 cents a share for 2008 due to the issuance of 32.7 Million shares of GXP. Resulting in a total cost of 1.7 Billion.

• Great Plains Energy expects the transaction to deliver financial and operational benefits

In several areas. Total pre-tax synergies are estimated to reach about $500 million over

a five-year period, with costs to achieve, including transaction costs, of approximately

$185 million.• Operational synergies over the same five-year period are expected to total about $310

million. These synergies are expected to result from:

· Improved operational and scale efficiencies enabled by adjacent service areas;

· Reduction in overlapping positions and overhead expenses;

· Capturing the benefits of more efficient procurement;

· Integrating and enhancing information technology; and

· Investments in infrastructure and energy efficiency.

Page 20: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Service Territory and Capacity

Primary Fuel Estimated 2010 MW Capacity

Base load Nuclear 545

Coal 3168

Peak Load Natural Gas and oil 2296

Wind 15

Total 6024

• Does not include recently completed Iatan II

Page 21: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

• Highly Regulated Electric Utility Public Service Commission of the

state of Missouri Kansas Corporation Commissions Southwest Power Pool Federal Energy Regulatory

Commission Nuclear Regulatory Commission Northern American Electric

Reliability Commission Environmental Protection Agency

FERC FERC

NRC NRC

MPSC MPSC KCC KCC

SPP SPP

GXP GXP

NERC

NERC

EPA EPA

Page 22: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

GXP as an Electric Utility

No. 1 in the industry GXP Rank in the world

Size Tokyo Electric Power Company 63

Value Orient Green Power Company Limited 45

Stability Bf Utilities Ltd 31

Price Performance Indian Energy Ltd 60

Sales Tata Power Co. Ltd 47

Profit Margins Renewable Energy Holding PLC 43

Growth History Reliance Power Ltd 61

Trading Liquidity Ksk Energy Ventures Ltd 82

Cash Flow Tokyo Electric Power Company 58

Dividend Payouts Energy Texas inc 31

Source: Reuters

Page 23: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Key Executives

Michael Chesser Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

William Downey President and Chief Operating Officer

Jim Shay Senior Vice President, Financial and Strategic Planning and Chief Financial Officer

Terry Bassham Executive Vice President, Utility Operations, KCP&L

Barbara B. Curry Senior Vice President – Human Resources and Corporate Secretary- GXP and KCP&L

Michael L. Deggendorf Senior Vice President-Delivery-KCP&L

Scott H. Heidtbrink Senior Vice President-Supply-KCP&L

John R. Marshall Executive Vice president-Utility Operations-KCP&L

William R. Riggins General Counsel and Chief Legal officer

Lori A. Wright Vice President and Controller

Page 24: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

2009 Revenue Breakdown

37%

26%

9%

27%

0%

GXP Sales by Jurisdiction

GXP

GMO

KCP&L

Source: Company Reports

38%

31%

11%

20%

0%

39%

42%

16%

3% 0%

GMO; 35%

KCP&L(KS); 28%

KCP&L(MO); 37%

Page 25: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Major News in 2010•On May 2010,Great Plains Energy and KCP&L announced the promotion of Terry Bassham to executive vice president of Utility while James Shay has been appointed senior vice president of Finance and Strategic Planning and chief financial officer of Great Plains Energy and KCP&L.•In August, KCP&L Announced that Iatan II Has Completed In-Service Testing. The plant met in-service criteria subject to confirmation by regulatory authorities.•In November, Great Plains Energy and KCP&L announced the promotion of Heather Humphrey to General Counsel and Vice President - Human Resources, and Ellen Fairchild to Vice President - Corporate Secretary and Chief Compliance Officer.• In November 20, The Kansas Corporation Commission (KCC) released its order regarding KCP&L’s Kansas rate increase request. The order calls for a $21.8 million, or 4.5% increase in revenue. KCP&L originally requested a $55.2 million, or 11.5% increase in revenue.

Page 26: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

16.5

17

17.5

18

18.5

19

19.5

20

Great Plains Energy Inc. (GXP-USA) [Delayed]

19.93 0.14 0.71% 03:01:33 PM 2010/02/05 - 2011/02/08

50 Day M oving Average 200 Day Moving Averag e

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000Volume

YTD Stock Price Chart

Source: Factset

Page 27: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Strength at Core

Source: Company Reports

Page 28: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

GXP Stock Holding SummaryInstitutional

Total No. of share holders 243

% of Shares Outstanding 69.19%

Total Shares Held 93,854,018

Total value of Share Holdings

$1,850,801,235

Net Activity 1,653,254

Total 5 Holders Shares Held

Bank of New York Mellon Corp.

8,541,672

Vanguard group Inc 6,125,166

Hotchkis and Wiley Capital Management LLC

5,651,085

Putnam Investment Management LLC

5,078,871

Gamco Investors Inc 4,169,777

Insider TradesLast 3 Mo. Last 12 Mo.

No. of Insider Trades 10 41No. of Buys 0 16No. of Sells 10 25Net Activity -39,895 19,840

Source: NASDAQ

Page 29: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Institutional Ownership: GXP vs. Competitors

Source: Nasdaq

Companies No. of Investors

% of Share outstanding

Westar Energy 254 70.33

Great Plains Energy 243 69.19

Ameren Corporation 381 57.93

Empire District Electric Company

121 36.87

Page 30: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

SWOT Analysis

Strength• Synergistic Effect From Aquila•Steady Revenue Stream•Completion of Iatan 2•Solid Transmission Network•Wide Customer Base•No retail Choice in Service Territory

Weakness•High Reliance on Coal• Rate Increase must go through Regulators•High Level of debt•Underfunded Pension fund

Opportunity•Improvements in efficiency of existing plants•Smart Grid program•Increase in demand

Threats• Federal Environmental Regulations•Abnormal Weather Conditions•Deterioration of Credit Markets•Market downturn

Page 31: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Industry Information

Page 32: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Rebased Electricity Demand in Residential Segment

Page 33: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Rebased Electricity Demand in Commercial Segment

Page 34: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Rebased Electricity Demand in Industrial Segment

Page 35: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Population (Missouri and Kansas)

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

2009 -

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

Years

Pop

ulation

Source: Census.gov

Page 36: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

GDP of Kansas and Missouri

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

GDP

GD

P in M

illions

Source: Bureau Economic Analysis

Page 37: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Business Process and Cost Sharing

Source: EIA

Page 38: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Source: EIA

Page 39: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Source: EIA

Demand for Growth for Electricity is Expected to Decline

Page 40: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Source: EIA

Expected Fuel Mix to generate electricity in the long run

Page 41: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Source: EIA

Natural Gas Prices are expected to stay low due to oversupply

U.S. shale gas production increased 14-fold over the last decade; reserves tripled over the last few years

U.S. Annual shale gas production (trillion cubic feet per year)

Page 42: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Source: EIA

Natural Gas Futures are indicating stability in prices

Page 43: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Factors that can change the fuel mix for electricity generation

•Clean Air Transportation Rule•Ash Disposal Requirements•Requirements for cooling water systems•Variation in input costs in different resources•Possible Regulations on Carbon Emissions

Page 44: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Financial Section

Page 45: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

GXP as an Electric Utility Company

GXP Industry Sector S&P 500

P/E ratio 11.74x 6.36 7.76 18.46

P/E High Last 5 years 20.94 80.46 70.98 84.86

P/E low last 5 years 12.85 16.16 15.46 12.38

Beta .76 .43 .45 1.33

Price to Sales 1.18 1.84 1.84 2.27

Price to Book .92 .52 .56 2.84

Price to CF 4.76 4.49 5.49 8.13

Dividend Yield 4.21 2.18 2.19 1.53

EPS -5 Yr Growth Rate (13.67)% 5.86 5.99 4.88

Capital Spending- % Yr Growth rate

34.58% 22.37 24.86 11.74x

LT debt to Equity ratio 105.02 72.82 68.96 107.37

Net Income/Employee

72,656 1,244,242 1,083,595 40,019

Source: Reuters

Page 46: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Source: Company Reports and Key Capital Estimates

Income Statement

Page 47: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Source: Company Reports and Key Capital Estimates

Balance Sheet

Page 48: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Source: Company Reports and Key Capital Estimates

Statement of Cash Flows

Page 49: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Source: Company Reports and Key Capital Estimates

Common Size Balance Sheet

Page 50: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Source: Company Reports and Key Capital Estimates

Key Financial Ratios

Page 51: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Pension Fund and Health Care

Year Under Funded Expenses

2002 -164.5 10.8

2003 -204.3 28.4

2004 -179.6 34.5

2005 -183.2 28.2

2006 -182.4 29.6

2007 -172.5 59.1

2008 -450.3 63.8

2009 -445.0 74.9

• GXP Pension Fund and health care is highly underfunded and with 22% of employees eligible to retire by 2013 with full pension benefits and might increase the cap and the cost as well

Source: Company Reports

Page 52: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Maturities of Long Term Debt

Issue Amount Out Rating

Date (US$ mm) Coupon Maturity Moody/S&P31-Oct-01 200 7.75% 15-Jun-11 Baa3 / BBB

24-Jul-86 23 6.63% 01-Jul-11 WR / --

20-Nov-01 150 6.50% 15-Nov-11 Baa2 / BBB

18-May-09 288 12.00% 15-Jun-12 -- / --

28-Jun-03 500 11.88% 01-Jul-12 Baa3 / BBB

13-Aug-10 250 2.75% 15-Aug-13 Baa3 / BBB-

04-Jun-07 250 5.85% 15-Jun-17 Baa2 / BBB

25-Sep-07 100 6.88% 15-Sep-17 Baa3 / BBB-

11-Mar-08 350 6.38% 01-Mar-18 Baa2 / BBB

24-Mar-09 400 7.15% 01-Apr-19 A3 / BBB+

27-Mar-99 81 8.27% 15-Nov-21 Baa3 / BBB

28-Feb-02 288 7.88% 01-Mar-32 -- / --

23-May-06 250 6.05% 15-Nov-35 Baa2 / BBB

17-Apr-56 12 4.35% -- Ba2 / BB+

Source: Company Reports and Factset

Page 53: Weather Normalized Sales Indicators for each Segment Monte Carlo Simulation Growth rate of MWH Sales Revenues based on MWH sales and rate case projections.

Beta and WACC Calculation

Source: Company Reports and Factset

Key Items FiguresWACC: 6.79%

Cost of Debt rD: 5.21%

Corporate Tax Rate TC: 27.16%

Cost of Equity rE: 9.14%

Risk Free rate 3.65%

Market Rate of Return 10.69%

Beta 0.78

Total Debt D: $ 3,652,000,000

Total Equity E: $ 2,670,000,000

Total Firm Value: $ 6,322,000,000


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