Weather Research &

Forecasting (WRF-Chem) Model

Lokhaze AliPhD Student NUST

The New Norms (Most Likely)

• US $222 billion during 2010 alone

• $16 billion associated with Pakistan floods 2010, 2011 & 2012 (Chairman NDMA)

• $80 billion with 2008 Katrina Hurricane, USA

• $200-240 billion with 2011 Japan Earthquake

Met Office UKBBC 24 September, 2014

• Four-day forecast as accurate as one-day forecast 30 years ago

• Data crunching• Petaflop• One thousand million million

calculations a second 1015

• Two-and-a-half hours to process data

• 20 different scenarios for a forecast (most likely)

World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)

Data Collection & Climate Projections

Mean Air Temp Change CMIP5 RCP4.52011-2100

Summer Mean Temp JJAS (1979-2005)

Climate of Pakistan (1981-2010)

+2.50C

+1.50C

+1.90C

Ref: Dr. G Rasul (PMD), 2014

Pakistan 2050

Change in Monsoon Patterns

Recent Disasters in Pakistan (NDMA)

CyclonesYemyin-2007

Phat-2010

Malakand Displacements2009 / 10

EarthquakesZiarat-2008Dalbandeen-2010Maskhel,Awaran 2013

Landslides / GLOFAttabad-2010, Gyari 2012

Floods: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

DroughtTharparker (2014)

Floods 2014

Floods 2014

Floods 2014

15

Weather Systems Tracks2010, 2011 & 2014

Ref: Dr Hanif (PMD), 2014

WRF Models

WRF Model Precipitation

North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) & Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

STUDIES OF EMISSIONS AND ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION, CLOUDS AND CLIMATE

COUPLING BY REGIONAL SURVEYS (SEAC4RS)• Influence of Asian

emissions on clouds, climate, and air quality

• Asian monsoon circulation

FRAPPE - FRONT RANGE AIR POLLUTION AND PHOTOCHEMISTRY EXPERIMENT

• C-130 Aircraft• DISCOVER-AQ Mission

The Himalayas

Himalayas Contributions to Basins

Increase in Runoff Higher Glacier Melt & Precipitation

• Avg annual runoff generation (TR) ref period (1998–2007, REF

• Mean projected annual total runoff (PTR) for the future (2041–2050 RCP4.5)

• PTR is split into four contributors

• BF: baseflow • GM: glacier melt• SM: snow melt• RR: rainfall

runoff).

Total Flows

SOCIOECONOMICPROCESSES

SocioeconomicPathways

Adaptation and Mitigation

Actions

Governance

CLIMATE

NaturalVariability

AnthropogenicClimate Change

RISKHazards

Exposure

Vulnerability

IMPACTS

EMISSIONSand Land-use Change

r

Risk Level withCurrent Adaptation

Potential forAdditional Adaptation to Reduce Risk

Risk Level withHigh Adaptation

Risk-LevelVeryLow Med

VeryHigh

4°C2°C

Present

Long Term(2080-2100

Near Term (2030-2040

Risks for Low-LyingCoastal Areas

Loss of Livelihoods,Settlements, Infrastructure, Ecosystem Services, and Economic Stability

SMALL ISLANDS

Compounded Stresson Water Resources

Reduced Crop Productivityand Livelihood and Food Security

Vector- and Water-Borne Diseases

AFRICA

ASIAIncreased Flood Damage to Infrastructure , Livelihoods, and Settlements

Heat-Related Human Mortality

Increased Drought-Related Water and Food Shortage

Increased Losses andImpacts from ExtremeHeat Events

Increased Flood Losses and Impacts EUROPE

Increased Water Restrictions

Increased Flood Damageto Infrastructure andSettlements

Increased Risks

to Coastal Infrastructure and Low-Lying Ecosystems

AUSTRALASIASignificant Change in Composition and Structure of Coral Reef Systems

Increased Risksfrom Wildfires

Heat-RelatedHuman Mortality

Damages from River and Coastal Urban Floods

NORTH AMERICA

Reduced WaterAvailability andIncreased Flooding and Landslides

Reduced FoodProduction and Quality

CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA

Vector-Borne Diseases

Reduced Fisheries Catch Potential at Low Latitudes

Increased Mass CoralBleaching and Mortality

Coastal Inundationand Habitat Loss

THE OCEAN

Unprecedented Challenges,Especially from Rate of Change

Risks for Ecosystems

POLAR REGIONS Risks for Health and Well-Being

DownscalingGCM to RCM

Invest Today for The Next Generation (Our Tomorrow)

• Early Warning Systems (EWS)

• Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

• Disaster Management• Remote Sensing

Technology 2100(It was Our power that made) the violent (unruly) wind flow (tamely) for Solomon, to his order, to the land which We had blessed: for We do know all things… (Al-Quran)