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Horizon 2020 H2020-SC5-2014 Advanced Earth-system models (Grant Agreement 641816) Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, kNowledge, Dissemination and Outreach Deliverable D 15.8 Monthly review of project progress, including status of deliverables and milestones (3) CRESCENDO (641816) Deliverable 15.8 Page 1
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Horizon 2020

H2020-SC5-2014 Advanced Earth-system models

(Grant Agreement 641816)

Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, kNowledge, Dissemination and Outreach

Deliverable D15.8

Monthly review of project progress, including status of deliverables and milestones (3)

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Deliverable Title Monthly review of project progress, including status of deliverables and milestones (3)

Brief Description Review of the project progress during months 13 to 18, including status of deliverables and milestones.

WP number  15Lead Beneficiary Colin Jones UNIVLEEDS

Contributors Alberto Munoz UNIVLEEDSParv Suntharalingam UEA

 

Pierre Friedlingstein UNEXEChris Jones MOHCTatiana Ilyina MPGVeronika Eyring DLRReto Knutti ETHDetlef van Vuuren PBLJason Lowe MOHCAsher Minns UEAStefan Lange PIK

Creation Date  12/04/2017Version Number 2Version Date  28/04/2017Deliverable Due Date 30/04/2017Actual Delivery Date 28/04/2017Nature of the Deliverable  X R – Report

    DEM – Demonstrator, Pilot, Prototype

    DEC – Dissemination, Exploitation or Communication

    O – OtherDissemination Level/ Audience  X PU – Public

  CO - Confidential, only for members of the consortium, including the Commission services

Version Date Modified by Comments1 12/04/2017  Alberto Munoz Initial draft

2 26/04/2017 Alberto MunozRevisions by RT leaders implemented. Submitted

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Table of Contents1. Executive Summary................................................................................................4

2. Project Objectives...................................................................................................5

3. Detailed Report.......................................................................................................6

4. Deviations from DoW/Annex I...............................................................................23

5. Cross Project Links...............................................................................................24

ANNEX I: Individual WP reports:...............................................................................25

Work Package: 1 (Improving ESMs: Terrestrial biogeochemical processes)........25

Work Package: 2 (Improving ESMs: Marine biogeochemical processes).............32

Work Package: 3 (Improving ESMs: Natural Aerosols and trace gases)...............34

Work Package: 4 (Evaluating terrestrial processes in ESMs)................................39

Work Package: 5 (Evaluating marine processes in ESMs)....................................43

Work Package: 6 (Evaluating natural aerosol and trace gas processes)..............47

Work Package: 7 (Towards routine benchmarking of ESMs)................................50

Work Package: 8 (Understanding and constraining model projections)................52

Work Package: 9 (Quantification of forcing and feedbacks)..................................55

Work Package: 10 (Novel climate scenarios and future projections: the CMIP6 Scenario MIP)........................................................................................................57

Work Package: 11 (Assessing the robustness of ESM performance and projection response to model resolution)...............................................................................59

Work Package: 12 (Organising ESM simulations for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP)..........62

Work Package: 13 (Knowledge Dissemination).....................................................64

Work Package: 14 (Data Dissemination)...............................................................67

Work Package: 15 (Project management).............................................................69

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1. Executive Summary

RT1: Improving process parameterizations in ESMs:

Work continues as planned within the individual WPs of RT1. During this reporting period, terrestrial modelling groups in WP1 still continued to finalize land surface components in ESMs for the CMIP6 simulations, including nitrogen cycle, wetland, and permafrost. The progress in model development and implementation of the new land-use dataset was discussed at the CRESCENDO WP1 Meeting in Hamburg on 30-31 Jan 2017. In WP2, new developments are being tested which include: coarsening facilities for high resolution, river input, variable C:N ratios, and reactivity of organic matter. WP3 activity continues on improvements to wildfire emissions, terrestrial biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions, dust emissions, marine emissions, nitrogen coupling and budgets and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) processes. It is expected that the final version of ESMs to be used in CMIP6 will be ready by mid-2017.

RT2: Process-level evaluation of ESM improvements:

Work continues as planned across RT2 to develop evaluation techniques for land (WP4), ocean (WP5) and atmospheric composition-aerosol (WP6) components of the project ESMs. During months 13 to 18, in WP4 all partners are contributing and improvements on land cover evaluation and land-use effects in ESMs, C and N dynamics and permafrost and methane emission are being implemented. In WP5, most of the groups involved have focussed their work on global scale assessment. This is explained because modelling groups are currently preparing and tuning their model version for CMIP6. In WP6, an outline plan for the evaluation of the aerosols and trace gases in the ESMs has been developed and agreed among the partners. Four working groups have been created to take responsibility for the collection of specific observation datasets and the evaluation of all the models against these datasets.

RT3: Benchmarking full ESMs constraining projections quantifying feedbacks and forcing:

Work progresses across RT3. In WP7, automated testing and reporting service for ESMValTool has been successfully implemented. The ESMValTool v1.1.0 including an updated user’s guide has been released and made available via GitHub. In WP8 work has progressed on the theoretical foundations for emergent constraints as well as on exploring emergent constraints on physical and biophysical feedbacks, with a number of important papers published, including two in the same issue of Nature Climate Change (Chadburn et al., 2017; Kwiatkowski et al., 2017). In WP9 a spreadsheet has been generated from a survey of modelling groups that was carried out to get a list of model configurations and experiments that will be available for WP9 analysis. The finalised CRESCENDO/AerChemMIP experimental design has been written and submitted to GMD.

RT4: New scenarios and projections (ScenarioMIP). Traceable ESM versions:

In WP10, during the reporting period, the teams have worked on making the data of the IAM teams on the SSP scenarios available for analysis with ESM models. The team also

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contributed to the development of the ScenarioMIP protocol (mostly scenario selection for CMIP6). For use of the SSP results from IAM models, both land use and emission output needed to be harmonised with historical data for all models and subsequently downscaled. IIASA has worked on developing algorithms as part of the IIASA scenario database that allow for harmonisation of emissions across the models. Teams collaborated on subsequently applying these algorithms to the model output, doing a number of rounds of adjustments and data checks. Historical data on emissions, mostly from the CEDS database, was added to the IIASA database as well. On land use, the IAM teams submitted land use data to a team at the University of Maryland and collaborated on harmonisation. It is expected that these activities will be finished summer 2017.

Activities in WP11 on the development on the ESMs are progressing. The preparation of DECK simulations with CMCC-ESM is ongoing. The ESM standard resolution in close to completion, with the physical core frozen at beginning of 2017 and the ocean biogeochemistry setup in final testing phase. WP12 have not formally started yet, consistent with the description of work.

RT5: Knowledge and Data dissemination:

In WP13, all the tasks, deliverables and milestones are progressing well and according to the DoA. Website continues to improve and the Intranet is now been set-up and functioning well. An important policy event was held in Brussels at the European Parliament and the first CRESCENDO policy information sheet published. On WP14: Data Dissemination, along with the activites of WP1 and WP2, groups are working on the processing chain of our ESM model outputs to comply with CMIP requests and for loading data on the ESGF system, the bias correction methods developed for ISIMIP2b and to develop and improve the Distribution Based Scaling (DBS) bias adjustment method.

RT6: Project Management:

Management and reporting in RT6 are progressing well and according to the DoA. Communication between groups across CRESCENDO is effective and several WP-specific meetings and teleconferences have been occurring over the first 18 months of the project. A grant Amendment is been submitted to accommodate changes in deliverables and project partners as agreed with the EU Project Officer.

2. Project ObjectivesWith this deliverable, the project has contributed to the achievement of the following objectives (PROPOSAL, Section 1.1):

No. Objective

1 To significantly improve the representation of key biogeochemical, biogeophysical and aerosol processes and feedbacks in seven European Earth System Models.

2 To develop and apply a range of process-level evaluation methods to assess the realism of these newly developed Earth system processes in the project ESMs.

3 To diagnose and categorize key Earth system biogeochemical and aerosol feedbacks and their associated radiative forcing using a common framework.

4 To develop and apply advanced methods to quantify sources of uncertainty in Earth system projections and clearly document these uncertainties.

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5

To further advance the discipline of emergent constraint analysis, apply these techniques to ESM projections to constrain key future Earth system feedbacks and help focus model development onto processes crucial to the magnitude and spread of future Earth system change.

6 To develop and apply, an openly-available, evaluation tool for routine ESM benchmarking and more advanced analysis of feedbacks and future projections.

7As part of the CMIP6 Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), contribute to the development of a new set of policy-relevant future scenarios using the project IAMs.

8To deliver a coordinated ensemble of ESM projections based on new CMIP6/ScenarioMIP scenarios and ensure these data are saved on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF).

9To provide a coordinated set of simulations and advanced analyses to a range of CMIP6 Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) that align with the main project goals.

10To work with the climate impacts and regional downscaling communities to ensure ESM data produced in CRESCENDO is both useable and used in these complementary research areas.

11 To ensure knowledge developed in the project is communicated to key stakeholder communities in an engaging and understandable form.

3. Detailed Report

Report for RT1: Improving process parameterizations in ESMs:

In WP1, during this reporting period terrestrial modelling groups continued to finalize land surface components in ESMs for the CMIP6 simulations. It is expected that the final version of ESMs to be used in CMIP6 will be ready by mid-2017. The progress in model development and implementation of the new landuse dataset was discussed at the CRESCENDO WP1 Meeting in Hamburg on 30-31 Jan 2017. For details, see a report from the meeting at the CRESCENDO website (https://crescendoproject.eu/crescendo-wp1-meeting-on-land-use-implementation-into-esms/). Particular group progress is as follows:

MPG: The JSBACH group is finalizing the CMIP6 version of the MPI-ESM. The main efforts are going into the linkage between new land model components: coupled carbon-nitrogen model, new landuse implementation, and the fire model SPITFIRE. A manuscript on the JSBACH-CN model by Goll et al. is in review in GMD. The group is also finalizing details for the soil chronosequences experiments. The group is participating in the new set of experiments called HAPPI-LAND led by the ETH group, the focus is on the change in the land-atmosphere coupling due to land cover changes in the 1.5°C and 2°C climate scenarios.

With regard to the dynamical wetland module WEED for JSBACH, the optimization of critical parameters in the WEED scheme currently takes place aiming for an improved simulation of not only the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics, but also the absolute extent of wetlands in the high northern latitudes. For this a revised version of WEED is used based on a simplified version, which better fits the rather coarse MPI-ESM resolution to be used for CMIP6. Furthermore, the scheme was merged into the most recent JSBACH version to take advantage of the latest improvements in the soil hydrology and temperature scheme.

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CNR: CNR continued the study of the evaluation of the representation of the main mechanisms of ecological interactions in African tropical areas in the LPJ-Guess DGVM, which permits the coexistence of multiple vegetation states and involve the vegetation-fire feedback. In order to understand the importance of grass cover and of tree-fire responses in determining the emergence of the grassland, savanna and forest biomes in sub-Saharan Africa, the patterns of woody and herbaceous cover and fire return times from MODIS satellite observations, rainfall annual average and seasonality from TRMM satellite measurements and tree phenology information from the ESA Global Land Cover map have been compared. A paper on this study is in finalization. The outcomes of this study are being used to evaluate the LPJ-GUESS DGVM in offline mode.

CMCC: Regarding task 1.1 and 1.3.1, CMCC finalized the land model spin-up simulation required to initialize the carbon and nitrogen pools. Moreover, CMCC worked on the set up of the forcing fields, the tile output and the output lists required in the LUMIP and LS3MIP experiments. CMCC also set up and performed some preliminary simulations for the site-level simulations. Concerning task 1.3.2, CMCC worked on implementation of new radiation scheme for multilayered forests, new routines for check several balances closure for Carbon and Water fluxes as well as for mass balances.

FMI: FMI has continued the development of HIMMELI wetland methane emission model, and compared HIMMELI methane emissions to JULES methane emissions together with MOHC, UNEXE and University of Helsinki at two boreal wetland sites. We used both site observations and JULES input as drivers in the methane emission simulations. The models generally perform well, but we emphasize the sensitivity of the modelled methane emissions to the water table depth and annual cycle of LAI. We have submitted two papers to GMD related to HIMMELI development.

MF-CNRM: MF-CNRM finalized the land model, SURFEX, spin-up simulation required to initialize the carbon pools for CMIP6 simulations. Diagnostics required for LS3MIP, LUMIP, and C4MIP are now implemented in the model. Reference papers are in preparation (Delire et al., Decharme et al.). Task 1.2. Permafrost scheme within SURFEX model has been successfully assessed at site-level evaluation. A reference paper is in preparation: Morel et al. “Implementation and site-validation of a new biogeochemical process-based green house gas emissions model of boreal soils embedded within the CNRM land-surface model”. A 2D global scale simulation will be performed with this model version in the coming month. Task 1.3. An improved agricultural scheme is under development within SURFEX (PhD of Matthias Rocher) should be tested a site Level (e.g., impact on Soil carbon Chronosequence). Moreover, a preliminary simulation for LUMIP (idealized deforestation) has been performed with CMIP6 version of SURFEX and is currently analyzed.

UiB/UNI: The NorESM group is testing the new land model, CLM5.0, within the coupled framework of the NorESM2. There have been many updates in the CLM and the new version has been almost finalized by the NCAR group. The CLM5 has not been coupled to NorESM and we are currently analyzing the results from the coupled simulations to evaluate vegetation and soil carbon. The new CLM5 brings better functionality in terms of land use change and better carbon nitrogen interactions. These additions are being evaluated to make sure the coupled system is not negatively affected. We will have the new coupled model ready soon to perform the simulations.

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ENEA: ENEA continued the development of the albedo parameterization for IFS-HTESSEL in EC-Earth. Look-up table values of albedo for each vegetation type have been estimated from MODIS for each of the four SW bands considered in IFS radiation code (visible and near infrared for both diffuse and parallel beams). Soil albedo values for each soil type and for each SW band have been estimated using averaged MODIS values over points classified as bare soil. As verified in the analysis performed in WP4, the modified model with realistic look-up table values for each vegetation and soil type estimated from MODIS data produces good results in terms of global climatologies.

ULUND: Version 4.0 of LPJ-GUESS was released in Dec 2016. On top of numerous bugfixes, adjustments and technical improvements the following main new features were included in the update:

Support for multiple land cover fractions and land use in each gridcell including croplands, pastures, managed forests in addition to climate-driven potential vegetation (PNV) as in earlier model versions. Net and gross land cover changes are supported as alternatives. Available management options: cropland (detailed sowing, harvest, irrigation, rotations, tillage, residue management and, for the C-N version, also N-fertiliser amendment functions), pasture (yearly cutting), managed forest (continuous cover forestry).

Soil texture now supports grid cell-specific sand, silt and clay fractions. Fractions were derived based on texture classes (Sitch et al. 2003) in soil triangle (except for organic soil, where global values from the fixed sand, silt and clay fractions, as e.g. in v3.0, were kept).

Nitrogen pools are now being balanced when running in carbon-only mode. The version of LPJ-GUESS in EC-Earth was resynchronized with version 4.0.

Furthermore, the CMIP6 N deposition, land use (LUH2) and CO2 forcing datasets were implemented and tested.

The process of reintegrating permafrost and wetland/CH4 functionality in LPJ-GUESS 4.0 and the EC-Earth was begun.

We have optimised memory usage of LPJ-GUESS when coupled to EC-Earth as memory became an issue after updating to v4.0 of LPJ-GUESS.

EC-Earth was configured to enable CMIP6 DECK and Tier 1 experiments in which N deposition, land use and CO2 are held at 1850 levels, and for 4*CO2 experiments.

MetNorway: At MetNo work has been done on the development of a research version of the atmospheric aerosol component in NorESM containing a description of ammonium and nitrate aerosol, ammonia, and a simplified NOx chemistry. As a first step in the validation, the behaviour of this model version has been compared with a more complex chemistry scheme. The extension of the aerosol scheme might allow in the future for the use of on-line atmospheric deposition of nitrogen in the land component of NorESM.

UNEXE/MOHC: The latest version of JULES is currently being tested and evaluated within UKESM. New diagnostics have been added for CMIP6 and the new model components. Global scale simulations in the offline version of JULES suggest that the coupled carbon and nitrogen model is now appropriately parameterised. A developmental version of JULES now exists with vertically discretised soil biogeochemistry including soil carbon and soil nitrogen. This is currently being evaluated for a selection of permafrost sites as well as globally. Both the physics and biogeochemistry of the site simulations have been evaluated and they are

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the subjects of a paper which is currently being finalised. This framework can be used to evaluate other models. This new version of JULES enables the permafrost, carbon and nitrogen feedbacks to be explored; for example, a recent paper (Burke et al. 2017) shows that the permafrost carbon feedback is highly dependent on the structure of the land surface model.

CNRS-IPSL: CNRS-IPSL nearly finalized the version of the ORCHIDEE model for CMIP6, working on few key parametrization controlling the energy, water and carbon budgets. We improved surface soil evaporation with the addition of a new resistance to soil evaporation. We calibrated one process linked to physical permafrost namely the impact of soil freezing on the change of water infiltration, which strongly controls the river discharge to the ocean and the water availability during summer time. We also started an overall calibration of the carbon fluxes using a Bayesian procedure to optimize the main model parameters with the net carbon fluxes of nearly 70 FluxNet sites. Finally we prepared the land cover maps for the model using CMIP6 past land cover transition and the ESA-CCI new present-day land cover map. Additional efforts are on-going to include in a second version of the model for CMIP6, the nitrogen cycle and specific forest dynamic and forest management modules.

In WP2, new developments are being tested which include: coarsening facilities for high resolution, river input, variable C:N ratios, and reactivity of organic matter. Specific progresses towards tasks include:

Task 2.1: Improved ocean dynamics & impact on marine biogeochemical cycles:

MF-CNRM: New Post-Doc at CNRM (Sarah Berthet) – on NEMO-PISCES + coarsening facilities.

CNRS-IPSL: New Engineer at IPSL (Renaud Person) – on NEMO-PISCES ORCA025 configuration.

CNRS-IPSL: Recent tests on coarsening facilities with NEMO demonstrate feasibilities.

Task 2.2 : Improved representation of organic matter cycling:

UEA : Paper in revision (for Phil. Trans. R. Soc) on evaluating impacts of changes in marine organic matter C:N ratios on ocean biogeochemistry (especially on ocean oxygen and N2O); biogeochemical model simulations conducted with NEMO-PlankTOM10. (Andrews et al. in rev).

CNRS-IPSL: Paper in press on including variable reactivity of organic particles in an ocean biogeochemical model (NEMO-PISCES). (Aumont et al. Biogeosciences in press).

CNRS-IPSL: New simulations testing the effect of variable stoichiometry of organic matter on the future evolution of carbon uptake. Publication in preparation (Kwiatkowski et al.).

CMCC : The development of the “intermediate-to-low” complexity configuration of the BFM ecosystem structure is on-going.

Task 2.3 : External input of nutrient and emission of trace gases:

CNRS-IPSL: New PhD student at IPSL (L. Conte) on incorporation of trace gases in NEMO-PISCES. So far, focusing on CO and isoprene.

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MF-CNRM : PISCES including updated DMS and N2O parameterizations is running in coupled and fully coupled mode (trace gas)

UEA : Paper published on revised assessment of impact of atmospheric N deposition on ocean biogeochemistry. Includes model analyses of N deposition impacts by E. Buitenhuis and P. Suntharalingam. (Jickells et al.)

UEA : Paper in preparation on a prognostic model representation of ocean N2O incorporating optimised N cycle parameters derived from new surface and water column data (E. Buitenhuis et al. for Biogeosciences).

NOC / UEA : Planned collaboration with NOC-Southampton (Yool, Popova) (Spring 2017) to incorporate N2O cycle dynamics into NEMO-MEDUSA.

UiB : Model simulations on the impact of riverine inflow (present/future) including alkalinity for a forthcoming CRESCENDO publication (Gao et al. in prep)

CNRS-IPSL: Model simulations over the past 30 years to test the importance of nutrient inflow (publication in preparation, Bourgeois et al.)

MF-CNRM : PISCES can account for interactive DOC flux from riverine —simulated by SURFEX

WP3 activity continues on improvements to several processes as follows:

Task 3.1. Emissions of terrestrial aerosols and trace gases:

Wildfire Emissions: The process of reintegrating the new wildfire model BLAZE into the latest version of LPJ-GUESS, LPJ-GUESS 4.0, and its EC-Earth branch has begun.

Terrestrial BVOC Emissions: The atmospheric component of the NorESM model now contains an updated parameterisation for emissions of BVOCs.The process of reintegrating the new terrestrial BVOC speciation into the latest version of LPJ-GUESS, LPJ-GUESS 4.0, and its EC-Earth branch has begun. For UKESM, the MOHC have re-tuned their terrestrial BVOC emissions scheme with the JULES land surface and C-N model in a spun-up state. However, work is ongoing to improve vegetation and bare soil fractions from JULES which in turn may require re-tuning of the interactive BVOC emissions. UKESM1 is expected to be frozen by June 2017.

Dust Emissions: At MetNo, tests have been performed on the size distribution of dust in NorESM, with a larger (smaller) fraction emitted in the accumulation (coarse) mode. Due to the small impact on the lifetime of dust, it has been decided to keep the partitioning between the two dust modes in NorESM unchanged.

Task 3.2. Emissions of marine aerosols and trace gases:

Marine Emissions: CNRM work has focussed on the consolidation of an improved description of sea salt aerosol for use in CRESCENDO simulation and has been achieved. Work has been done in several directions including (1) the implementation of the description of the parametrisation of sea salt emissions following Grythe et al. 2014 and Andreas et al. 1998, (2) the dependence of these emissions to the sea surface temperature (Jaéglé et al. 2011). The atmospheric component of the NorESM model now contains updated parameterisations for emissions of natural aerosols or their precursors (DMS, oceanic POM, sea-salt).

Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA) Processes: The representation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) in TM5 has been improved by KNMI/FMI. The simple representation

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using surrogate emissions has been replaced by an explicit scheme in which SOA is formed in the atmosphere as presented by Jokinen et al. (2015). The new scheme is a two-product model where isoprene and monoterpenes are oxidized by ozone and hydroxyl radicals to produce semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOC) and extremely volatile compounds (ELVOC). Together with the new scheme, they also implemented a new particle formation mechanism as a function of ELVOC and sulphate concentrations (Paasonen et al., 2010) and condensation of ELVOCs and SVOCs. Model evaluation of the scheme running offline has started with a view to producing a model description paper. The atmospheric component of the NorESM model now contains updated parameterisations for the evolution of natural emissions (DMS, oceanic POM, sea-salt, BVOCs) in the atmosphere i.e. SOA.

Other Aerosol Processes: CNRS-IPSL has coupled the interactive aerosol module to the new IPSLCM6 model whose physics differs from its predecessor. The new model now takes into account the role of thermals and cold pockets in convection. And its vertical resolution has doubled from 39 to 79 layers. Developments by CNRS-IPSL include a routine to save both the 3D fields of aerosol concentrations and the fields of aerosol loads for subsequent simulations of IPSLCM6 without computing the aerosol interactively. Reading aerosols fields instead of estimating them interactively reduces substantially the CPU time used for simulations in which aerosols are not the main topic of study while keeping realistic aerosol distributions and aerosol radiative forcings. Finally, further developments by CNRS-IPSL included the implementation of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) in a lower resolution model (96x95 horizontal resolution) – this configuration is currently being tested. The optical properties of black carbon (BC) are treated following an internal mixture scheme described in Wang et al. (2016). The aerosol consolidation work carried out by CNRM included: (1) the repartitioning of sizes within the three bins devoted to sea-salt aerosol in our climate model, and (2) a tidying up of the code, in particular with regards to the concept of dry versus wet particles. The new size repartition adopted leads to modifications in all associated aerosol properties. These properties comprise constants used in wet/dry deposition and sedimentation processes, and optical properties. The dependence of the latter to humidity has been tested. All these developments (including those related to emission above) lead to improved concentrations at the surface, and a reduced overall bias of the sea-salt AOD. An error in the description of the hygroscopic growth of dust particles has been corrected in NorESM, as well as an error in the description of the condensation of H2SO4. FMI has implemented the Abdul-Razzak & Ghan scheme to describe aerosol activation to cloud droplets in EC-Earth. This development now enables interactive calculation of aerosol indirect effects. The scheme is running and is currently being tested. Developments by the MOHC also include the development of new capability to use prescribed aerosol distributions derived from the interactive aerosol scheme, GLOMAP-mode. The model is currently successfully reading in the aerosol climatologies and the development work to couple the aerosols to the radiation scheme has been completed. This code is expected to be lodged to the model library imminently and the remaining work involves coupling with the Abdul-Razzak & Ghan scheme and time updating.

Task 3.3. Atmospheric processing and deposition of aerosols and trace gases:

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Nitrogen Coupling and Budgets: CNRS-IPSL has developed a new model version that includes a parameterisation of nitrogen chemistry including NH3, NH4+, HNO3 and NO3. Nitrate aerosol can be formed in the accumulation and coarse modes when sea salt and dust are present. This parameterisation is a simplified version of the chemistry described in Hauglustaine et al. (2014).

Computational Cost: Work has been carried out by KNMI to improve the computational performance of the EC-Earth3 configuration with interactive coupling to the atmospheric chemistry and aerosol module TM5 to be used in AerChemMIP and called EC-Earth3-AerChem. (1) The number of fields exchanged between IFS and TM5 has been reduced through vertical remapping in IFS, so only the 34 levels used in TM5 are exchanged in place of the 91 used in IFS. (2) The expensive computation of mass fluxes in TM5 from the IFS spectral fields has been reduced by a factor of two. (3) The exchange of non-spectral fields between IFS and TM5 now involves all cores of TM5 instead of one. This reduced the MPI communication in the model, and is expected to increase its scalability. Further testing is ongoing. Work is being carried out to optimise the UKCA aerosol component of UKESM1, namely GLOMAP-mode. A chunking technique and OpenMP had previously been implemented but the OpenMP directives were not giving bit comparable results. Recent work at the MOHC has fixed the corresponding OpenMP bugs and we expect the code changes to be lodged in time for inclusion in UKESM1.

Forcings, Diagnostics, and CMIP6 Preparations: CNRS-IPSL developed code to produce the required outputs for both CMIP6 and AerChemMIP and have started testing simulations with present day and preindustrial CMIP6 emissions of aerosols and their precursors. They can now produce routinely and for each simulation a complete table of all the terms of the aerosol budget. This allows them to compare these terms to the budget obtained in the AR5 simulations. Such comparisons enabled the detection and correction of several aspects of the modelling, for example, the injection height of aerosols from biomass burning or of sulphur dioxide emitted from stacks, and, the interpolation in time of the monthly mean emission fields of aerosols and their precursors. The relevant CMIP6 forcing data sets for the pre-industrial and historical periods have been implemented in TM5 by KNMI. These include the emission data sets from both anthropogenic and biomass burning sources, as well as mixing ratios of methane, carbon dioxide and stratospheric ozone. For anthropogenic emissions, a more detailed sector dependence of the size distribution and solubility of primary emissions of carbonaceous particles has been introduced, e.g. by making explicit use of the supplementary information on solid biofuel combustion emissions, provided as part of the CMIP6 anthropogenic emissions from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). Because the model does not include a comprehensive stratospheric chemistry scheme, ozone mixing ratios are nudged towards their desired zonal mean values, which can now be chosen to be based on the CMIP6 pre-industrial climatology or historical time series. Methane mixing ratios in the model are constrained both at the surface and in the stratosphere. At the surface, mixing ratios are nudged to concurrent zonal means from the CMIP6 data set, while in the stratosphere the annual global mean mixing ratio from CMIP6 is used with a one-year delay for scaling a present-day climatology from the HALOE (Halogen Occultation Experiment) satellite instrument. New output routines have also been implemented in TM5 by KNMI to fulfill the data request of AerChemMIP and CRESCENDO. Defining the output variables is still in progress. Version 4.0 of LPJ-GUESS was released by ULUND in Dec 2016 with numerous bugfixes, adjustments and technical improvements as well as support for multiple land

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cover fractions and land use in each gridcell including croplands, pastures, managed forests in addition to climate-driven potential vegetation (PNV) as in earlier model versions. The version of LPJ-GUESS in EC-Earth was re-synchronised with version 4.0. Furthermore, the CMIP6 nitrogen deposition, land use (LUH2) and CO2 forcing datasets were implemented and tested. EC-Earth was configured to enable CMIP6 DECK and Tier 1 experiments in which N deposition, land use and CO2 are held at 1850 levels, and for 4*CO2 experiments. Work has been done by CNRM to finalise the CMIP6-AerChemMIP configuration of the model with regards to aerosols. This includes (1) adapting the CMIP6 tropospheric aerosol emissions and the CMIP6 volcanic aerosols to our climate model; (2) testing and tuning the model with regards to aerosols; (3) implementing the required code to satisfy the CMIP6 data request in terms of diagnostics. All these model developments will provide benefits to the CRESCENDO project. AMIP-type and nudged simulations (nudged towards ERA-Interim) have been carried out by MetNo with both present-day and preindustrial emissions to estimate the ERF in the updated NorESM model. The anthropogenic emissions used in these simulations were from the CMIP5 emission data set but the simulations are indicative of the pre-industrial to present-day forcings expected from the updated model. A manuscript [Kirkevåg et al., in prep.] is being written describing the updates in the atmospheric aerosol scheme since the CMIP5 version of NorESM. This model version is also being used in a range of ongoing AEROCOM model intercomparison experiments. The final tuning of the NorESM version which will be used for CMIP6 is not finished, implying that possibly certain assumptions for the natural aerosols may have to be re-evaluated. The MOHC have been making extensive preparations for CMIP6. In addition to finalising the science in UKESM1 and tuning, work has been ongoing on the preparation of CMIP6 forcings and adding new diagnostics to meet the AerChemMIP diagnostic request. F. O’Connor from the MOHC also acted as the topical editor handling the review process for the AerChemMIP description paper (Collins et al., 2017) and is currently handling the paper describing the historical anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols for CMIP6 (Hosely et al., 2017).

Report for RT2: Process-level evaluation of ESM improvements:

Work has begun across RT2 to develop evaluation techniques for land (WP4), ocean (WP5) and atmospheric composition (WP6) within the project ESMs.

In WP4 specific work by Project Partners towards the WP4 tasks includes:

Task 4.1. Carbon and nitrogen dynamics in vegetation and soils:

CRNS-IPSL: Progress on an “evaluation tool” of model GPP using: i) atmospheric COS data with a pre-calculated transport operator, and ii) Solar Induce Fluorescence (SIF from GOSAT) with a statistical linear relationship between GPP and SIF.

MPG: First draft of carbon/turnover metrics for ESMValTool send to RT leaders. Production of site-level evaluation scripts begun, modelling protocol established and forcing data produced.

MOHC: Some progress on GPP metrics, but ongoing work. Will be coordinated with MPI.

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ULUND: First offline evaluation of global vegetation distribution and dynamics, and global carbon and nitrogen pools and fluxes (1870-2014), forced with CMIP6 land use (LUH2) and N deposition. Comparison with LPJ-GUESS 4.0 driven by CRU-NCEP. Matlab script to compare vegetation cover and type with MODIS VCF product completed. Additional output fields for offline site (FACE) and global runs added. CMOR-ization tools added and testing begun ahead of ESMValTool evaluation in the coming period.

Task 4.2. Wetlands, permafrost and methane emissions:

FMI: Upscaling site-data to regional only possible for northern latitude due to data shortage in temperature and tropical ecosystems. Atmospheric inversion for methane has been collected (4 models). Metrics to be implemented to ESMValTool this year. Two sites for site-level evaluation available (only for JULES), 20 more pending.

MOHC: Developed some metrics for permafrost site-level evaluation (temperature and carbon profiles), and also permafrost extent and active layer depth. This is being coordinated with ULUND and FMI. Site-level driving data are in preparation.

ULUND: The process of reintegrating permafrost and wetland/CH4 functionality in LPJ-GUESS 4.0 and the EC-Earth branch was begun.

Task 4.3. Evaluating land cover and land-use effects in ESMs:

CNR: Prepared gridded and upscaled satellite data (fire, rainfall, tree phenology) for model evaluation. Worked on a paper to study the importance of grass cover and tree-fire responses for the emergence of biomes in sub-tropical Africa. Analysis of model representation of snow cover and of elevation-dependent warming processes.

MF-CNRM: New PFT-scale LAI product developed. CMCC: Initiated collaboration with ENEA and MOHC to evaluate fAPAR using MODIS. ENEA: The following data sets for evaluation have been identified: LAI [Boston

University-LAI3g, period: 1982-2010; GLCF-GLASS, period: 1982-2012; COPERNICUS, period: 1999-present], albedo [GLCF-GLASS, period 1981-2010; COPERNICUS, period 1999-2014 (extension to present-day expected in June 2017)]. The proposed analysis includes: variability and drift of LAI and albedo; forced variance and coupling between albedo, LAI and surface temperature, precipitation; links between LAI and albedo. Methodology is described in Catalano et al. (2016) and Alessandri et al. (2016). Parts of the metrics have been developed in matlab and part in R. At this stage, we are not committing to implement these metrics into the ESMVal-Tool. We might consider the possibility of an implementation into the ESMVal-Tool at a later stage for a subset of the metrics developed in R. The analysis identified a global overestimation of surface albedo in EC-Earth with respect to MODIS observational data, leading to significant cold biases in surface temperature. The effects of the improved albedo parameterization developed in WP 1 have been analyzed on a set of 3 historical AMIP simulations with prescribed observational vegetation (LAI3g dataset) spanning 28 years (1982-2009). Realistic albedo values for each vegetation and soil types, together with a realistic discrimination of desert albedo, lead to a significant improvement of regional and global climatologies of surface temperature and precipitation.

ETH: In process of implementing land-cover effects on albedo into ESMVal-Tool. Work to evaluate ET and LST at the tile-level (ongoing work, possibly entering ESMVal-Tool at a later stage).

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MPG: Site-selection for C-response to landcover change and modeling protocol finalised.

MOHC: new activity: some interest in better quantifying phenology biases in collaboration with ENEA and CMCC.

In WP5, most of the groups involved have focussed their work on global scale assessment. This is explained because modelling groups are currently preparing and tuning their model version for CMIP6. Particular group progress towards WP tasks is listed below:

Task: 5.1. Global-scale assessment of improved marine biogeochemistry:

CNRS-IPSL: Comparison of 3 global configurations of different resolution of NEMO-PISCES forced by atm. reanalysis and by increasing atmospheric CO2 over the last decades. The 3 configurations only differ by their horizontal resolution, from ORCA2 (nominal resolution of 2°) to ORCA025 (nominal resolution of 0.25°). First results show a much better agreement of the simulated stock of anthropogenic carbon in the Arctic ocean when compared to individual cruises or to the new GLODAP v2 product. These results demonstrate the importance of a better representation of Arctic circulation and of lateral transfer of anthropogenic carbon from the North Atlantic to the Arctic Ocean. POC reactivity (Aumont et al. Biogeosciences in press): We introduced a description of the variable composition of POC based on the theoretical Reactivity Continuum Model proposed by (Boudreau and Ruddick, 1991) in NEMO-PISCES. Our model experiments show that accounting for a variable lability of POC increases POC concentrations in the ocean’s interior by one to two orders of magnitude. Comparison with observations is significantly improved both in abundance and in size distribution. Furthermore, the amount of carbon that reaches the sediments is increased by more than a factor of two, which is in better agreement with global estimates of the sediment oxygen demand.

CMCC: ESMValTool was deployed into our system and used to perform basic analysis on CMIP5 biogeochemical datasets. A processing chain of CMCC-ESM outputs is under development to enable the evaluation of new simulations using ESMValTool.

UiB: Model skill assessment/process evaluation: Progress has been made to implement ESMvalTool for use with NorESM output, but the process is not finished. UiB is in the process of hiring a new model evaluation infrastructure person (to replace Detelina Ivanova) in order to distribute model output.

SMHI: SMHI has carried out a ~350 year PISCES/NEMO3.6 simulation forced by DFS5.2. The model shows almost everywhere to low winter nutrient concentrations as well as to low oxygen concentrations around Antarctica. A couple model NEMO/PISCES/IFS has been setup successfully that shows the same shortcomings. Most likely, the model biases are related to insufficient model physics.

MF-CNRM: Adaptation of data-processing script for some biogeochemical tracers like DMS in R to be compliant with ESMvalTool. It also sarted developing basic set of diagnostics for ocean tracers for ESMValTool.

NOC: UKESM1 is currently in the late stages of technical development. All relevant model components have been integrated successfully, and the complete model is in a period of verification and tuning. Ocean-only spin-up of physics and the interior carbon cycle is now in its second stage, with an improved forcing regime that supports a more acceptable ocean circulation. Ocean model evaluation is focused on maintaining a

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realistic circulation within which the marine biogeochemistry can be brought towards equilibration. Current spin-up strategy is to use coupled model output to force more computationally-efficient ocean-only simulations. Ocean physics and biogeochemistry are evaluated at this stage with an emphasis on global, regional and profile metrics of bulk properties, circulation and biogeochemical processes.

Task 5.2: Regional-scale assessment of deep convection & upwelling system, oxygen minimum zone and coastal shelves:

UEA: Continued development of a prognostic biogeochemical model for marine N2O using the PlankTOM10-NEMOv3.1 model. Diagnostics for validation developed using databases MEMENTO, MAREDAT, and World Ocean Atlas. Publication in prep: Buitenhuis, E., P. Suntharalingam, and C. Le Quere, “Global estimates of ocean N2O air-sea fluxes from multiple data constraints”, Biogeosciences, in. prep. for submission in Spring 2017.

Task 5.3: Assessing variability, drift and trends of relevant biogeochemical fields:

MPG: Analyses of interannual to decadal variability for oxygen concentration and carbon fluxes using a large ensemble of MPI-ESM-LR simulation (CMIP5). OMIP-like simulations (derived from NCEP forcings) are currently conducted to better understand processes.

In WP6, an outline plan for the evaluation of the aerosols and trace gases in the ESMs has been developed and agreed among the partners. Four working groups have been created to take responsibility for the collection of specific observation datasets and the evaluation of all the models against these datasets. These groups are led by: fire aerosol (UNIVLEEDS and KNMI), biogenic secondary organic aerosol (UNIVLEEDS, FMI), dust and nutrients (CNRS-IPSL, MF-CNRM), marine aerosol (MetNo, MF-CNRM), pristine aerosol environments (UNIVLEEDS).

The design of the common model experiments has been agreed. We will perform 15-year AMIP simulations for the pre-industrial (1750 and possibly 1850) and present day (2000-2015). We leave open the option to also do shorter nudged simulations.

MetNo worked in particular on the evaluation of marine aerosols as a component of the natural background aerosol. A list of available observations from different networks has been compiled and the feasibility of including it in a benchmark dataset is explored. The datasets comprise sea salt, sulphur components, organic aerosol and total marine number concentrations. They will be initially tested with the AeroCom tools at MetNo, so that they can be used in a second step also by other tools, such as the esmvaltool. Model diagnostics needed to make the evaluation of the ESMs possible have been included in the AerChemMIP data request (Collins et al., 2017). MetNo was responsible for compiling this data request.

UNIVLEEDS worked on the compilation of in situ aerosol measurements from the GASSP database. The database is being improved to enable the data to be compared with CF-compliant diagnostics from the models in an automated way.

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MF-CNRM was not involved in the first part in the WP6 activities for which we report here, that is evaluating natural aerosols. They contributed to developing a plan for the joint modelling activities that will feed the WP6 evaluation tasks. They have started to make use for our own evaluation purposes of the ESMValTool with supportive contacts at DLR.

Report for RT3: Benchmarking full ESMs constraining projections quantifying feedbacks and forcing:

In WP7, work during this reporting period was focused on:

Automated reporting service for ESMValTool has been successfully implemented (LMU); D7.3.

Automated testing scheme for ESMValTool has been successfully implemented (LMU); D7.3.

New diagnostics for sea surface temperature, soil moisture have been implemented (LMU).

The ESMValTool v1.1.0 including an updated user’s guide has been released and made available via GitHub (DLR, LMU).

A working prototype of the ESGF coupled version of the ESMValTool has been finished (DLR).The NCAR CVDP package implemented in the ESMValTool has been upgraded from v3.7.0 to v4.1.0 (DLR).

8 additional IPCC AR5 chapter 9 diagnostics have been implemented into the ESMValTool (DLR).

Implementation of regional downscaling diagnostics as in Chapter 9:Figure 9.38, 9.39,9.40,9.41. (ENEA).

Implementation of CCMI (Chemistry Climate Model Initiative) diagnostics: Age of air , NH Heat flux vs. Temperature, SH Heat flux vs. Temperature,vertical and latitudinal profile of HCl and Cly) (ENEA).

In WP8, there has been excellent progress in this period, with a number of important papers published, including two in the same issue of Nature Climate Change (Chadburn et al., 2017; Kwiatkowski et al., 2017). Progress towards specific tasks includes:

Task 8.1: Theoretical foundations for emergent constraints (UHAM, UREAD, UNEXE):

Conditions for Emergent Constraints to apply are being investigated using simple models, and through analysis of outputs from long CMIP5 control runs. The simplest single heat capacity stochastic model for global mean temperature (Hasselmann, 1976) implies simple relationships between the variability of global temperature and the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS). However, the CMIP5 models are found to diverge from these simple relationships. Attention is therefore now being focussed on a slightly more sophisticated conceptual model in which ocean heat uptake is represented as diffusion in a semi-infinite medium, rather than as a fixed heat capacity. A review paper/Milestone(MS44) is being prepared on ‘Initial theoretical guidance on the links between the current climate variability and ES sensitivity’.

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Task 8.2: Emergent constraints on physical and biophysical feedbacks (ETH, DLR):

Relationships have been found between model’s present-day performance in sea ice related metrics and future changes in temperature variability. These emergent constraints can produce ensembles of models calibrated with present-day observations with a narrower spread across its members than across the full ensemble (Borodina et al., 2017).

The latest climate models all predict warming of high-latitude soils and thus thawing of permafrost under future climate change, but with widely varying magnitudes of permafrost thaw. In a paper published in Nature Climate Change, Chadburn et al. (2017) show a spatial emergent constraint – a model’s present-day spatial distribution of permafrost and air temperature can be used to infer the sensitivity of its permafrost to future global warming. Using the same approach for the observed permafrost distribution and air temperature gives an estimated sensitivity of permafrost area loss to global mean warming of about 4.0 million km2 per degree Kelvin, which is around 20% higher than previous studies. The method facilitates an assessment for COP21 climate change targets: if the climate is stabilized at 2K above pre-industrial levels, it is estimated that the permafrost area would eventually be reduced by over 40%. Stabilizing at 1.5K rather than 2K would save approximately 2 million km2 of permafrost. The Chadburn et al. (2017) paper has been covered very extensively in the media and social media (https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/nclimate3262/metrics).

Task 8.3: Emergent constraints on land carbon cycle feedbacks (UNEXE, DLR, CNRS-IPSL, MOHC):

Following-on from the Wenzel et al. (2016) Nature paper, emergent constraints on land carbon cycle feedbacks are being combined to provide constraints on the carbon budgets associated with stabilisation at 1.5K and 2.0K. Initial results from this synthesis were presented by Chris Jones at the first CRESCENDO policy event, hosted by Seb Dance MEP at the European Parliament on February 28th 2017 (see below WP13 report).

Task 8.4: Emergent constraints on ocean carbon cycle feedbacks (UEA, CNRS-IPSL, MPG, UiB):

Marine primary production is a fundamental component of the Earth system, providing the main source of food and energy to the marine food web, and influencing the concentration of atmospheric CO2. Earth system model (ESM) projections of global marine primary production are highly uncertain with models projecting both increases and declines of up to 20% by 2100. In a paper published in Nature Climate Change, Kwiatkowski et al. (2017) identify an emergent relationship between the long-term sensitivity of tropical ocean primary production to rising equatorial zone sea surface temperature (SST) and the interannual sensitivity of primary production to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven SST anomalies. Satellite-based observations of the ENSO sensitivity of tropical primary production 1998 were then used to constrain projections of the long-term climate impact on primary production. Kwiatkowski et al. (2017) estimate that tropical primary production will decline by 3 ± 1% per kelvin increase in equatorial zone SST. Under a business-as-usual emissions scenario this results in an 11 ± 6% decline in tropical marine primary production and a 6 ± 3% decline in global marine primary production by 2100.

Task 8.6: Weighting ensembles of multi-model Earth system projections (DLR, ETH):

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Uncertainties of climate projections are routinely assessed by considering simulations from different models. Observations are used to evaluate models, yet there is a debate about whether and how to explicitly weight model projections by agreement with observations. A straightforward weighting scheme has been developed that accounts both for the large differences in model performance and for model interdependencies. The constrained ensemble shows reduced spread and a more rapid sea ice decline than the unweighted ensemble (Knutti et al., 2017).

In WP9, partners have now generated a spreadsheet from a survey of modelling groups that was carried out to get a list of model configurations and experiments that will be available for WP9 analysis. The finalised CRESCENDO/AerChemMIP experimental design has also been written and submitted to GMD.

Report for RT4: New scenarios and projections (ScenarioMIP). Traceable ESM versions

In WP 10, on task 10.1 several CRESCENDO team members were part of the writing team of the ScenarioMIP protocol, describing the rationale and actual scenario selection for CMIP6. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. The ScenarioMIP design aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. The scenarios selection was based on careful consideration of land use, emissions, storylines and climate outcomes in the SSP scenarios developed by the IAM community vis-à-vis specific science and policy questions. A design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs (such as LUMIP) to investigate questions related to specific forcings.

Task 10.2 has contributed to the data delivery from IAM models to ESMs. For this, land use and emission output needed to be harmonised with historical data for all models and subsequently downscaled. IIASA has worked on developing algorithms as part of the IIASA scenario database that allow for harmonisation of emissions across the models. Teams collaborated on subsequently applying these algorithms to the model output, doing a number of rounds of adjustments and data checks. Historical data on emissions, mostly from the CEDS database, was added to the IIASA database as well. On land use, the IAM teams submitted land use data to a team at the University of Maryland and collaborated on harmonisation. It is expected that these activities will be finished summer 2017.

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In WP11, the preparation of DECK simulations with CMCC-ESM is ongoing. The ESM standard resolution in close to completion, with the physical core frozen at beginning of 2017 and the ocean biogeochemistry setup in final testing phase.

The EC-EARTH model configuration with interactive vegetation has been successfully tested in collaboration with the developers of LPJ-Guess, analysis of the results is on-going. The vegetation scheme is forced with the LUH2 dataset that describes the land-use changes for CMIP6. The low resolution configuration of EC-EARTH is under development, it requires minor adjustments in the MAC2SP aerosol scheme.

MPI-M stays with T63 resolution as the main model version MPI-ESM-LR. The work is continuing on the final testing of the coupling between new JSBACH components, while the physical climate model is fixed. MPI-M completed two Holocene runs (8,000 yr) with a preliminary version of JSBACH. Publication of the Hamburg Holocene team is in preparation, several presentations are planned at EGU-2017 and 10th ICDC. The HR-version (A:T127 / O:TP04) is finalized. DECK runs are in testing phase for both LR and HR versions. The T31 version (CR- crude resolution for paleo-applications) is in the tuning phase.

For UKESM, work on preparing the model for the CMIP6 DECK simulations is ongoing. The scientific configuration of the physical climate model (HadGEM3 GC3.1) has been frozen in Dec 2016. The spin-up runs under pre-industrial conditions are continuing. The full ESM at low resolution is technically fit to run and is currently in the final phase of scientific development.

WP12 starts after M24 and no work has been done to date.

Report for RT5: Knowledge and Data dissemination:

Activities in WP13 and WP14 are progressing well and according to the Description of the Action. Specific work toward tasks in WP13 is as follows:

Task 13.1: Targeted interaction with policy makers:

A policy event was held the 28th of February at the European Parliament in collaboration with WhiteRose Brussels Office and with the participation of Partners UNIVLEEDS, SMHI, ETH, PBL, MOHC and UEA. The event was attended by around 40 people, including Members of the European Parliament (MEPs), European Commission officers, international networks, research agencies, business consultancies and a group of European students. The event entitled “Realizing the 2015 Paris Agreement - Pathways to and benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5C”, presented some of the science and policy insights from CRESCENDO’s scientists pertinent to realizing the Paris Agreement. These insights are now published as a policy leaflet launched at the event in seven different languages (English, French, German, Italian, Portuguese, Spanish and Swedish) with contributions from members from UNIVLEEDS, SMHI, MPI, CNRS-IPSL and CMCC. Documents are available online at: https://crescendoproject.eu/crescendo-is-supporting-policy-makers-on-routes-to-realizing-the-2015-paris-agreement/. CRESCENDO was also present at the UN Conference

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of the Parties in Marrakesh (COP22) at the UEA (Asher Minns) exhibition stand in partnership with the FP7 project HELIX (MOHC and UNEXE).

Task 13.3 Guidance for the impacts and downscaling communities:

CRESCENDO maintains a sustained dialogue with major international projects in climate impacts research and regional climate downscaling. Contacts with the CORDEX community have been and will be maintained throughout the project taking advantage of having members of CORDEX in CRESCENDO (PIK, SMHI, MOHC).

Task 13.4 Improving public knowledge of Earth system models and projections:

A European network of Schools for Earth System Modelling and Climate Change – CRESCENDOschools is being built by Partners UNIVLEEDS, SMHI, CNRS-IPSL, MOHC and UNEXE; 3 schools in 3 different countries (France, Sweden and UK) are already engaged in the network, which is meant to grow in the upcoming years. The network will explore the science of global change and the scientific modelling techniques CRESCENDO’s scientists use to understand and predict climate change. The overall aim is to help define and develop an appropriate suite of education resources, such as web based documents, online videos, serious games, social networking, etc. on the science of climate change and climate modelling, targeted to the needs and interests of science students in the approximate age range 16-19 years old.

The CRESCENDOschools initiative will support the development of the website on how Earth system models work, how they represent the Earth system and generate future projections.

Task 13.5 Interaction between CRESCENDO and CMIP6:

CRESCENDO scientists are currently preparing their ESMs to run ScenarioMIP simulations, therefore a strong interaction between CRESCENDO and CMIP6 has been maintained namely through the CRESCENDO scientists that are also members of ScenarioMIP (DLR, PBL, IIASA, UNEXE, ETH).

Regarding WP14, the work carried out in this period towards the different tasks is:

Task 14.1: Archiving ESM data on the ESGF:

Along with the activites of WP1 and WP2, CMCC group is working on the processing chain of our ESM model outputs to comply with CMIP requests and for loading data on the ESGF system.

At UiB (with affiliate Uni Research Climate), the preparations for data submission of NorESM results to the CMIP6 archive are on track. The Norwegian ESGF node is up-to-date and ready for serving CMIP6 data. The NorESM cmor-ization tools are being upgraded from cmor2 to cmor3 and should be ready in time. Contact points for NorESM concerning CMIP6 data citation have been forwarded to DKRZ (Martina Stockhause) to ensure proper data citation later on.

Task 14.3: Development and application of bias-correction methods:

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At PIK, the bias correction methods developed for ISIMIP2b were adjusted to avoid discontinuities in climatologies of daily mean near-surface wind speed, surface downwelling longwave radiation and sea level pressure. A fact sheet describing the methods developed and the observational dataset EWEMBI complied for bias correction in ISIMIP2b was published on the project homepage (https://www.isimip.org/gettingstarted/isimip2b-bias-correction). The EWEMBI dataset was published with a DOI (http://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2016.004).

SMHI is continuing to develop and improve the Distribution Based Scaling (DBS) bias adjustment method. Recent improvements include i) more flexible choice of distributions for different variables, ii) preserving all metadata from input CMIP5 and CORDEX files and adding additional bias-adjusted-related metadata, and iii) optimization/parallelization for large high-resolution datasets. Data Reference Syntax (DRS) for bias-adjusted CORDEX simulations was finalised and made available (http://is-enes-data.github.io/CORDEX_adjust_drs.pdf) and the first bias-adjusted CORDEX simulations have been published on ESGF under the CORDEX-adjust project. Experience gained in the publication of bias-adjusted CORDEX simulations on ESGF can be used for making bias-adjusted GCM simulations available on ESGF in a consistent way.

Report for RT6: Project Management:

In WP15, the tasks, deliverables and milestones are progressing according to the DoA:

Task 15.1 Management:

The Project coordinator and Project manager (UNIVLEEDS) are in continuous contact with the Finance teams in NCAS and Faculty Research Office at the University of Leeds as well as with the EU Project officer in Brussels. A good level of communication has been established between the Project office and the EC acting as an efficient link between the rest of the Partners and the EC. The intranet space in the CRESCENDO website is now fully developed and documents of interest for all members of the Project as well as submitted reports are available. The Science Steering Committee has met regularly via telco or at different local meetings to review and agree on project tasks and cross-collaborations.

Task 15.2 Reporting and interfacing with the EC:

Project Office has regularly communicated with Research Theme and Workpackage leaders to assess the progress of the project as a whole. To date, all Project deliverables, milestones and publications have been submitted through the Participant Portal without any problem or delay.

Within the Consortium Partners, the movement of Prof Valerio Lucarini and his team from the University of Hamburg (UHAM) to University of Reading (UREAD) has been completed in January 2017. An amendment has been submitted to terminate UHAM involvement in CRESCENDO and adjust the budget beteen these two Partners. The EU Project Officer has been aware abd agreed with the changes implemented in our DoA.

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To find more information on Tasks, Publications and dissemination activities related to progress of the Project during this reporting period see individual WPs Progress Reports attached in Annex I of this document.

4. Deviations from DoW/Annex I

In WP1, due to unforeseen large memory needs with the new LPJ-GUESS version coupled to EC-Earth, ULUND planned simulations for period 13-18 were delayed and will commence during the next reporting period. Moreover, in UNEXE/MOHC, there is currently a loss of bit comparability across processor configurations when using JULES vn4.8. This is under investigation. However, the implementation of JULES in UKESM is still on schedule.

In WP3, KNMI/FMI decided to put more effort into improving the description of secondary organic aerosols in EC-Earth3-AerChem.

In WP4, at CNRS-IPSL the comprehensive evaluation of the Nitrogen cycle and forest management module (forest height, biomass,…), globally, is delayed as the version containing the nitrogen – carbon interactions and forest management is still under completion.

In WP11, spatial resolution of CRESCENDO Earth System Models for CMIP6 will be as follows:

ModelHigher resolution version Lower resolution version

Atmosphere Ocean Atmosphere Ocean

CMCC-ESM 1° 0.25° 1° 1°

CNRM-ESM T359 0.25° T127 1°

EC-Earth T255 1° T159 1°IPSL-ESM 1.3°x 0.65° 0.25° 2.5°x 1.25° 1°MPI-ESM T127 0.4° T63 (T31) 1.5° (3°)NorESM 0.9°x 1.25° 1°/ 0.25° 1.9°x 2.5° 1°UKESM 0.6° 0.25° 1.5° 1°

Most modelling centres will use the lower resolution version for the bulk of the CMIP6 simulations. Exception: EC-Earth.

Time line for the CMIP6 DECK simulations to be finished:

Modelling Centre Higher resolution Low resolutionCMCC End 2018 (no hist) Early 2018 (+ hist)CNRM Early 2018 Mid/ End 2017EC-Earth End 2017 End 2017IPSL End 2018 Mid 2017MPI Early 2017 Mid 2017

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NorESM Mid 2018 End 2017UKESM End 2018 End 2017

“hist”: CMIP6 historical simulation (1850 to 2014).

In WP15, an amendment to the DoA has been submitted to address the following changes in CRESCENDO:

1- To include three new deliverables (D13.10, D8.4 and D10.2), modification of three existing ones (D13.2, D8.1 and D11.1) and deletion of a milestone (MS43), in order to implement the changes that would address CRESCENDO’s contributions to the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C, as requested to the Coordinators of H2020 projects by the Commission and EASME in June 2016, and discussed later in our last General Assembly in Sept 2016. These changes have been agreed with the EU Project Officer for CRESCENDO as well as the possibility of launching a future amendment shall the project deliverables need further adjustment in order to meet their deadlines.

2- To remove the beneficiary UHAM (University of Hamburg) whose participation has terminated on the 31st December 2016 in CRESCENDO. The reason is that the researcher team in UHAM has moved to another Institution which is an existing beneficiary, UREAD (University of Reading), and hence the remaining budget, person months and tasks associated will be relocated accordingly.

3- Minor changes to the International Advisory Board and Science Steering Committee members.

5. Cross Project Links

CRESCENDO is co-organising with the EU Project Officer and the H2020 projects PRIMAVERA, Blue-Action and APPLICATE, a workshop in Brussels on May 23-24th 2017 with the working title: Evaluating climate and Earth system models at the process level, aiming to develop some ideas and collaborations that might help the involved projects and, more broadly the EU, improve the evaluation of European ESMs and thereby their overall performance fidelity.. This meeting has clear impact across WPs 1 to 7 in CRESCENDO, and several WP leaders will attend the workshop.

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ANNEX I: Individual WP reports:

BIANNUAL WP1 PROGRESS REPORT

Months: 13-18 Work Package: 1 (Improving ESMs: Terrestrial biogeochemical processes)

Report submitted by: (WP leader name)Victor Brovkin ( MPG)

Contributors: (Partners acronyms)CNRS-IPSL, MPG, CMCC, MOHC, UNEXE, MET Norway, ENEA, MF-CNRM, UiB - Uni Research, ULUND, CNR, FMI

General Work Package Progress:

Comments on work undertaken during this reporting period:

During the months 13-18 of the CRESCENDO project, terrestrial modelling groups in WP1 still continued to finalize land surface components in ESMs for the CMIP6 simulations. It is expected that the final version of ESMs to be used in CMIP6 will be ready by mid-2017. The progress in model development and implementation of the new landuse dataset was discussed at the CRESCENDO WP1 Meeting in Hamburg on 30-31 Jan 2017. For details, see a report from the meeting at the CRESCENDO website (https://crescendoproject.eu/crescendo-wp1-meeting-on-land-use-implementation-into-esms/). Particular group progress is as follows: MPG: The JSBACH group is finalizing the CMIP6 version of the MPI-ESM. The main efforts are going into the linkage between new land model components: coupled carbon-nitrogen model, new landuse implementation, and the fire model SPITFIRE. A manuscript on the JSBACH-CN model by Goll et al. is in review in GMD. The group is also finalizing details for the soil chronosequences experiments. The group is participating in the new set of experiments called HAPPI-LAND led by the ETH group, the focus is on the change in the land-atmosphere coupling due to land cover changes in the 1.5°C and 2°C climate scenarios.With regard to the dynamical wetland module WEED for JSBACH, the optimization of critical parameters in the WEED scheme currently takes place aiming for an improved simulation of not only the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics, but also the absolute extent of wetlands in the high northern latitudes. For this a revised version of WEED is used based on a simplified version, which better fits the rather coarse MPI-ESM resolution to be used for CMIP6. Furthermore, the scheme was merged into the most recent JSBACH version to take advantage of the latest improvements in the soil hydrology and temperature scheme.

CNR: CNR continued the study of the evaluation of the representation of the main mechanisms of ecological interactions in African tropical areas in the LPJ-Guess DGVM, which permit the coexistence of multiple vegetation states and involve the vegetation-fire feedback. In order to understand the importance of grass cover and of tree-fire responses in determining the emergence of the grassland, savanna and forest biomes in sub-Saharan Africa, the patterns of woody and herbaceous cover and fire return times from MODIS satellite observations, rainfall annual average and seasonality from TRMM satellite measurements and tree phenology information from the ESA Global Land Cover map have been compared. A paper on this study is in finalization. The outcomes of this study are being used to evaluate the LPJ-GUESS DGVM in offline mode.

CMCC:

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Regarding task 1.1 and 1.3.1, CMCC finalized the land model spin-up simulation required to initialize the carbon and nitrogen pools. Moreover, CMCC worked on the set up of the forcing fields, the tile output and the output lists required in the LUMIP and LS3MIP experiments. CMCC also set up and performed some preliminary simulations for the site-level simulations. Concerning task 1.3.2, CMCC worked on implementation of new radiation scheme for multilayered forests, new routines for check several balances closure for Carbon and Water fluxes as well as for mass balances.

FMI: FMI has continued the development of HIMMELI wetland methane emission model, and compared HIMMELI methane emissions to JULES methane emissions together with MOHC, UNEXE and University of Helsinki at two boreal wetland sites. We used both site observations and JULES input as drivers in the methane emission simulations. The models generally perform well, but we emphasize the sensitivity of the modelled methane emissions to the water table depth and annual cycle of LAI. We have submitted two papers to GMD related to HIMMELI development.

MF-CNRM: MF-CNRM finalized the land model, SURFEX, spin-up simulation required to initialize the carbon pools for CMIP6 simulations. Diagnostics required for LS3MIP, LUMIP, and C4MIP are now implemented in the model.Reference papers are in preparation (Delire et al., Decharme et al.).1.2 Permafrost scheme within SURFEX model has been successfully assessed at site-level evaluation. A reference paper is in preparation: Morel et al. “Implementation and site-validation of a new biogeochemical process-based green house gas emissions model of boreal soils embedded within the CNRM land-surface model”.A 2D global scale simulation will be performed with this model version in the coming month. 1.3 An improved agricultural scheme is under development within SURFEX (PhD of Matthias Rocher) should be tested a site Level (e.g., impact on Soil carbon Chronosequence). Moreover, a preliminary simulation for LUMIP (idealized deforestation) has been performed with CMIP6 version of SURFEX and is currently analyzed.

UiB/UNI: The NorESM group is testing the new land model, CLM5.0, within the coupled framework of the NorESM2. There have been many updates in the CLM and the new version has been almost finalized by the NCAR group. The CLM5 has not been coupled to NorESM and we are currently analyzing the results from the coupled simulations to evaluate vegetation and soil carbon. The new CLM5 brings better functionality in terms of land use change and better carbon nitrogen interactions. These additions are being evaluated to make sure the coupled system is not negatively affected. We will have the new coupled model ready soon to perform the simulations.

ENEA: ENEA continued the development of the albedo parameterization for IFS-HTESSEL in EC-Earth. Look-up table values of albedo for each vegetation type have been estimated from MODIS for each of the four SW bands considered in IFS radiation code (visible and near infrared for both diffuse and parallel beams). Soil albedo values for each soil type and for each SW band have been estimated using averaged MODIS values over points classified as bare soil. As verified in the analysis performed in WP4, the modified model with realistic look-up table values for each vegetation and soil type estimated from MODIS data produces good results in terms of global climatologies.

ULUND:Version 4.0 of LPJ-GUESS was released in Dec 2016. On top of numerous bugfixes, adjustments and technical improvements the following main new features were included in the update.- Support for multiple land cover fractions and land use in each gridcell including croplands, pastures, managed forests in addition to climate-driven potential vegetation (PNV) as in earlier model versions. Net and gross land cover change are supported as alternatives. Available management options: cropland (detailed sowing, harvest, irrigation, rotations, tillage, residue management and, for the C-N version, also N-fertiliser amendment functions), pasture (yearly cutting), managed forest (continuous cover forestry).- Soil texture now supports grid cell-specific sand, silt and clay fractions. Fractions were derived based on texture classes (Sitch et al. 2003) in soil triangle (except for organic soil, where global values from the fixed sand, silt and clay fractions, as e.g. in v3.0, were kept).- Nitrogen pools are now being balanced when running in carbon-only mode.

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- The version of LPJ-GUESS in EC-Earth was resynchronized with version 4.0. Furthermore, the CMIP6 N deposition, land use (LUH2) and CO2 forcing datasets were implemented and tested.- The process of reintegrating permafrost and wetland/CH4 functionality in LPJ-GUESS 4.0 and the EC-Earth was begun.- We have optimised memory usage of LPJ-GUESS when coupled to EC-Earth as memory became an issue after updating to v4.0 of LPJ-GUESS.- EC-Earth was configured to enable CMIP6 DECK and Tier 1 experiments in which N deposition, land use and CO2 are held at 1850 levels, and for 4*CO2 experiments.

MetNorway: At MetNo work has been done on the development of a research version of the atmospheric aerosol component in NorESM containing a description of ammonium and nitrate aerosol, ammonia, and a simplified NOx chemistry. As a first step in the validation, the behaviour of this model version has been compared with a more complex chemistry scheme. The extension of the aerosol scheme might allow in the future for the use of on-line atmospheric deposition of nitrogen in the land component of NorESM.

UNEXE/MOHC:The latest version of JULES is currently being tested and evaluated within UKESM. New diagnostics have been added for CMIP6 and the new model components. Global scale simulations in the offline version of JULES suggest that the coupled carbon and nitrogen model is now appropriately parameterised. A developmental version of JULES now exists with vertically discretised soil biogeochemistry including soil carbon and soil nitrogen. This is currently being evaluated for a selection of permafrost sites as well as globally. Both the physics and biogeochemistry of the site simulations have been evaluated and they are the subjects of a paper which is currently being finalised. This framework can be used to evaluate other models. This new version of JULES enables the permafrost, carbon and nitrogen feedbacks to be explored; for example, a recent paper (Burke et al. 2017) shows that the permafrost carbon feedback is highly dependent on the structure of the land surface model. CNRS-IPSL:CNRS-IPSL nearly finalized the version of the ORCHIDEE model for CMIP6, working on few key parametrization controlling the energy, water and carbon budgets. We improved surface soil evaporation with the addition of a new resistance to soil evaporation. We calibrated one process linked to physical permafrost namely the impact of soil freezing on the change of water infiltration, which strongly controls the river discharge to the ocean and the water availability during summer time. We also started an overall calibration of the carbon fluxes using a Bayesian procedure to optimize the main model parameters with the net carbon fluxes of nearly 70 FluxNet sites. Finally we prepared the land cover maps for the model using CMIP6 past land cover transition and the ESA-CCI new present-day land cover map. Additional efforts are on-going to include in a second version of the model for CMIP6, the nitrogen cycle and specific forest dynamic and forest management modules.

Modifications or delays to original Work Plan:

ULUND: Due to unforeseen large memory needs with the new LPJ-GUESS version coupled to EC-Earth, our planned simulations for period 13-18 were delayed, and will commence during the next reporting period.

UNEXE/MOHC:Currently there is a loss of bit comparability across processor configurations when using JULES vn4.8. This is under investigation. However, the implementation of JULES in UKESM is still on schedule.

Any difficulties encountered, how have they been overcome or what action still needs to be taken:N/A

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Positive outcomes or activities to note:

CNR: CNR started a research collaboration with the Copernic Institute of Sustainable Development of the Utrecht University (Utrecht, The Nederlands) on the study of grass-tree-climate-fire interactions in Africa savannas, also with a short research visit at this institute by a member of CNR (relevant for WP4 and WP1).

ENEA: ENEA started a collaboration with KNMI and ECMWF on the development of an interactive albedo parameterization and the improvement of the coupling with vegetation dynamics in IFS-HTESSEL (project PROCEED, http://projects.knmi.nl/proceed/).

UNEXE/MOHC:A new version of JULES is available with vertically discretised soil biogeochemistry.

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication (D/E/C) activities completed during this reporting period, to include the following details (please include for as many activities that are applicable):

CNR: Poster presentations at EGU 2017, Vienna 25-28 April 2017:

- D’Onofrio, D., Baudena, M., von Hardenberg J.; Evaluation of DGVMs in tropical areas: linking patterns of vegetation cover, climate and fire to ecological processes

- D’Onofrio, D., Baudena, M., von Hardenberg J.; The distribution of grasslands, savannas and forests in Africa: a new look at the relationships between vegetation, fire and climate at continental scale

ENEA:Oral presentation at the EC-Earth meeting, Reading 02-03 November 2016:

- Alessandri A., Catalano F., De Felice M., Van Den Hurk B., Balsamo G., Boussetta S., Doblas Reyes F., Miller P., Li Q., Wyser K.: Progresses in coupling biophysical processes in HTESSEL: effects on surface climate simulation and prediction.

Oral presentations at the EGU General Assembly 2017, Vienna 25-28 April 2017:- Catalano F., Alessandri A., De Felice M., Zhu Z., Myneni R.: Observationally Based Analysis

of Land–Atmosphere Coupling.- Alessandri A., De Felice M., Catalano F., Lee J.-Y., Wang B., Lee D. Y., Yoo J.-H.: Grand

European and Asian-Pacific multi-model seasonal forecasts: maximization of skill and of potential economical value to end-users.

Poster presentation at the EGU General Assembly 2017, Vienna 25-28 April 2017:- Alessandri A., Catalano F., De Felice M., Van Den Hurk B., Doblas Reyes F., Boussetta S.,

Balsamo G., Miller P. A.: Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth.

ULUND: Poster presentations at EGU 2017, Vienna 25-28 April 2017:

- Lars Peter Nieradzik, Vanessa Haverd, Peter Briggs, Josep G. Canadell, and Ben Smith.: Development of wildfires in Australia over the last century

- Assessing global climate-terrestrial vegetation feedbacks on carbon and nitrogen cycling in the earth system model EC-Earth, David Wårlind, Paul Miller, Lars Nieradzik, Fredrik Söderberg, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, and Ben Smith

Oral presentations at EGU 2017, Vienna 25-28 April 2017:- Stefan Olin, Xu-Ri Xing, David Wårlind, Peter Eliasson, Ben Smith, and Almut Arneth.: Global

terrestrial N2O budget for present and future

The following publications were published or submitted during the report period:

MPG:

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- Goll, D. S., Winkler, A. J., Raddatz, T., Dong, N., Prentice, I. C., Ciais, P., and Brovkin, V.: Carbon-nitrogen interactions in idealized simulations with JSBACH (version 3.10), Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-304, in review, 2017.

CMCC: - A paper with new model implementation for long period simulations under climate change has

been submitted: “Changes in Carbon and Water Use Efficiency in Northern Europe forest ecosystems under different climate, CO2 and management scenarios” A.Collalti, C. Trotta, T. F. Keenan, A. Ibrom, B. E. Medlyn, C.P.O. Reyer, R. Grote, B. Bond-Lamberty, S. Vicca, M. Migliavacca, F. Veroustraete, A. Anav, M. Campioli, E. Scoccimarro, G. Matteucci

Submitted to Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

ENEA:- Alessandri A., De Felice M., Catalano F., Lee J.-Y., Wang B., Lee D. Y., Yoo J.-H.,

Weisheimer A. (2017): Grand European and Asian-Pacific multi-model seasonal forecasts: maximization of skill and of potential economical value to end-users, Clim. Dyn., under review.

- A. Alessandri, F. Catalano, M. De Felice, B. Van Den Hurk, F. Doblas Reyes, S. Boussetta, G. Balsamo, P. Miller (2016): Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth, Clim. Dyn.(in press). doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3372-4

FMI: - Raivonen, M., Smolander, S., Backman, L., Susiluoto, J., Aalto, T., Markkanen, T., Mäkelä, J.,

Rinne, J., Peltola, O., Aurela, M., Tomasic, M., Li, X., Larmola, T., Juutinen, S., Tuittila, E.-S., Heimann, M., Sevanto, S., Kleinen, T., Brovkin, V., and Vesala, T.: HIMMELI v1.0: HelsinkI Model of MEthane buiLd-up and emIssion for peatlands, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2017-52, in review, 2017.

- Susiluoto J., Raivonen M., Backman L., Laine M., Mäkelä J., Peltola O., Vesala T., and Aalto T.. Calibrating a wetland methane emission model with hierarchical modeling and adaptive MCMC. Submitted to Geoscientific Model Development (gmd-2017-66)

MOHC/UNEXE: 2 papers:

- Burke, E. J., Ekici, A., Huang, Y., Chadburn, S. E., Huntingford, C., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Peng, S., and Krinner, G.: Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks, Biogeosciences Discuss., doi:10.5194/bg-2016-544, in review, 2017.

- Burke, E. J., Chadburn, S. E., and Ekici, A.: A vertical representation of soil carbon in the

JULES land surface scheme (vn4.3_permafrost) with a focus on permafrost regions, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 959-975, doi:10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017, 2017.

CNRS-IPSL:- Bertrand Guenet, Marta Camino-Serrano, Philippe Ciais, Marwa Tifafi, Fabienne Maignan,

Jennifer L. Soong, Ivan A. Janssens, Impact of priming on global soil carbon stocks, submitted to PNAS

Any other things to note e.g. Project Management tasks, Inter-Work Package discussions

CNR: Participation in the CRESCENDO WP1 Meeting on land use implementation into ESMs, 30-31 Jan 2017, Hamburg, Germany

ENEA:ENEA participated in the CRESCENDO WP1 Meeting on land use implementation into ESMs, 30-31 Jan 2017, Hamburg, Germany

CNRS-IPSL: Participation in the CRESCENDO WP1 Meeting on land use implementation into ESMs, 30-31 Jan

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2017, Hamburg, Germany

CMCC:Participation in the CRESCENDO WP1 Meeting on land use implementation into ESMs, 30-31 Jan 2017, Hamburg, Germany

Progress against specific milestones and deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name

Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Progress

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Progress

The next reporting period

Comments on work to be undertaken during this reporting period (please include notes on any dependencies on previous or upcoming work, and on other Work Packages):

CNR: CNR will continue the analysis of the ability of LPJ-GUESS in reproducing the main ecological mechanisms and feedbacks between climate, fire and vegetation, which determine the observed patterns of tree, grass, their relative dominance and total vegetation with abiotic factors.

ULUND:ULUND will now have a particular focus on the implementation of permafrost physics, permafrost-carbon interactions and wetland/CH4 dynamics. ULUND plan to test and evaluate these developments in the CRESCENDO offline runs by M24.LPJ-GUESS updates for version 4.1 will be tested during the next reporting period and are planned to be released by the end of 2017. These will include permafrost and wetland developments, as well as:1) speciated BVOC (monoterpene) emissions (ULUND deliverables in WPs 3 and 6);2) a new wildfire model, BLAZE (ULUND deliverables in WPs 1, 3; and 6); and3) N2O emissions from terrestrial ecosystemsULUND will begin the CMIP6 DECK, C4MIP and LUMIP runs in the next reporting period.

UNEXE/MOHC: In the next six months, we will continue work on the coupled carbon nitrogen cycles in JULES and evaluation of the coupled model.

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication activities planned for this reporting period:

CNR:CNR plans to submit during the next reporting period a paper on the analysis of climate-fire-vegetation satellite observational data in sub-Saharan Africa.

ULUND: EC-EARTH-LPJ-GUESS coupled model description paper: Miller et al. in preparation.

CNRS-IPSL: Plan to complete a publication describing the ORCHIDEE version used for CMIP6 (Peylin et al.)

Upcoming milestones/deliverables

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Milestone no.

Milestone name

Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Comments

MS2 First set of offline simulations with initial improvements in terrestrial processes delivered to WP4

Month 24 Data uploading The groups are finalizing the land models set up and starting the preliminary simulations

MS3 Consolidated representation of land use in ESMs

Month 24 Status report The groups are finalizing the developments of the land surface components in ESMs

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Comments

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BIANNUAL WP2 PROGRESS REPORT

Months: 13-18 Work Package: 2 (Improving ESMs: Marine biogeochemical processes)

Report submitted by: (WP leader name)Laurent Bopp (CNRS-IPSL)

Contributors: (Partners acronyms)CMCC, CNRS-IPSL, MF-CNRM, MPG, NOC, SHMI, UEA, UiB

General Work Package Progress: Comments on work undertaken during this reporting period:

In brief: WP2 is progressing well. New developments tested (coarsening facilities for high resolution, river input, variable C:N ratios, reactivity of organic matter..). Few publications in rev, soon to be submitted.

Task 2.1: Improved ocean dynamics & impact on marine biogeochemical cycles- CNRM : New Post-Doc at CNRM (Sarah Berthet) – on NEMO-PISCES + coarsening facilities.- IPSL : New Engineer at IPSL (Renaud Person) – on NEMO-PISCES ORCA025 configuration.- IPSL : Recent tests on coarsening facilities with NEMO demonstrate feasibilities.

Task 2.2 : Improved representation of organic matter cycling- UEA : Paper in revision (for Phil. Trans. R. Soc) on evaluating impacts of changes in marine organic matter C:N ratios on ocean biogeochemistry (especially on ocean oxygen and N2O); biogeochemical model simulations conducted with NEMO-PlankTOM10. (Andrews et al. in rev).- IPSL : Paper in press on including variable reactivity of organic particles in an ocean biogeochemical model (NEMO-PISCES). (Aumont et al. Biogeosciences in press).- IPSL : New simulations testing the effect of variable stoichiometry of organic matter on the future evolution of carbon uptake. Publication in preparation (Kwiatkowski et al.).- CMCC : The development of the “intermediate-to-low” complexity configuration of the BFM ecosystem structure is on-going

Task 2.3 : External input of nutrient and emission of trace gases- IPSL : New phd student at IPSL (L. Conte) on incorporation of trace gases in NEMO-PISCES. So far, focusing on CO and isoprene.- CNRM : PISCES including updated DMS and N2O parameterizations is running in coupled and fully coupled mode (trace gas)- UEA : Paper published on revised assessment of impact of atmospheric N deposition on ocean biogeochemistry. Includes model analyses of N deposition impacts by E. Buitenhuis and P. Suntharalingam. (Jickells et al.)- UEA : Paper in preparation on a prognostic model representation of ocean N2O incorporating optimised N cycle parameters derived from new surface and water column data (E. Buitenhuis et al. for Biogeosciences).- NOC - UEA : Planned collaboration with NOC-Southampton (Yool, Popova) (Spring 2017) to incorporate N2O cycle dynamics into NEMO-MEDUSA.- UiB : Model simulations on the impact of riverine inflow (present/future) including alkalinity for a forthcoming CRESCENDO publication (Gao et al. in prep)- IPSL : Model simulations over the past 30 years to test the importance of nutrient inflow (publication in preparation, Bourgeois et al.)- CNRM : PISCES can account for interactive DOC flux from riverine —simulated by SURFEX

Modifications or delays to original Work Plan:

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N/A

Any difficulties encountered, how have they been overcome or what action still needs to be taken:N/A

Positive outcomes or activities to note:New developments tested (coarsening facilities for high resolution, river input, variable C:N ratios, reactivity of organic matter). Few publications in revision, soon to be submitted

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication (D/E/C) activities completed during this reporting period, to include the following details (please include for as many activities that are applicable):

Any other things to note e.g. Project Management tasks, Inter-Work Package discussions

Planned collaboration UEA and NOC for the Spring 2017 to incorporate N2O cycle dynamics into NEMO-MEDUSA model

Progress against specific milestones and deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name

Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Progress

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Progress

The next reporting periodComments on work to be undertaken during this reporting period (please include notes on any dependencies on previous or upcoming work, and on other Work Packages):N/A

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication activities planned for this reporting period:N/A

Upcoming milestones/deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Comments

10 First set of offline simulations with initial improvements in ocean physics and biogeochemistry provided to WP5

Nov 2017 Internal report

In progress

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Comments

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BIANNUAL WP3 PROGRESS REPORT

Months: 13-18 Work Package: 3 (Improving ESMs: Natural Aerosols and trace gases)

Report submitted by: (WP leader name)Fiona O’Connor (MOHC)

Contributors: (Partners acronyms)MF-CNRM, ULUND, KNMI, METNO, FMI, IPSL, MOHC

General Work Package Progress: Comments on work undertaken during this reporting period:

Wildfire EmissionsThe process of reintegrating the new wildfire model BLAZE into the latest version of LPJ-GUESS, LPJ-GUESS 4.0, and its EC-Earth branch has begun.

Terrestrial BVOC EmissionsThe atmospheric component of the NorESM model now contains an updated parameterisation for emissions of BVOCs.

The process of reintegrating the new terrestrial BVOC speciation into the latest version of LPJ-GUESS, LPJ-GUESS 4.0, and its EC-Earth branch has begun.

For UKESM, the MOHC have re-tuned their terrestrial BVOC emissions scheme with the JULES land surface and C-N model in a spun-up state. However, work is ongoing to improve vegetation and bare soil fractions from JULES which in turn may require re-tuning of the interactive BVOC emissions. UKESM1 is expected to be frozen by June 2017.

Dust EmissionsAt MetNo, tests have been performed on the size distribution of dust in NorESM, with a larger (smaller) fraction emitted in the accumulation (coarse) mode. Due to the small impact on the lifetime of dust, it has been decided to keep the partitioning between the two dust modes in NorESM unchanged.

Marine EmissionsCNRM work has focussed on the consolidation of an improved description of sea salt aerosol for use in CRESCENDO simulation and has been achieved. Work has been done in several directions including (1) the implementation of the description of the parametrisation of sea salt emissions following Grythe et al. 2014 and Andreas et al. 1998, (2) the dependence of these emissions to the sea surface temperature (Jaéglé et al. 2011).

The atmospheric component of the NorESM model now contains updated parameterisations for emissions of natural aerosols or their precursors (DMS, oceanic POM, sea-salt).

Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA) ProcessesThe representation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) in TM5 has been improved by KNMI/FMI. The simple representation using surrogate emissions has been replaced by an explicit scheme in which SOA is formed in the atmosphere as presented by Jokinen et al. (2015). The new scheme is a two-product model where isoprene and monoterpenes are oxidized by ozone and hydroxyl radicals to produce semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOC) and extremely volatile compounds (ELVOC). Together with the new scheme, they also implemented a new particle formation mechanism as a function of ELVOC and sulphate concentrations (Paasonen et al., 2010) and condensation of ELVOCs and SVOCs. Model evaluation of the scheme running offline has started with a view to producing a model description paper.

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The atmospheric component of the NorESM model now contains updated parameterisations for the evolution of natural emissions (DMS, oceanic POM, sea-salt, BVOCs) in the atmosphere i.e. SOA.

Other Aerosol ProcessesCNRS-IPSL has coupled the interactive aerosol module to the new IPSLCM6 model whose physics differs from its predecessor. The new model now takes into account the role of thermals and cold pockets in convection. And its vertical resolution has doubled from 39 to 79 layers.

Developments by CNRS-IPSL include a routine to save both the 3D fields of aerosol concentrations and the fields of aerosol loads for subsequent simulations of IPSLCM6 without computing the aerosol interactively. Reading aerosols fields instead of estimating them interactively reduces substantially the CPU time used for simulations in which aerosols are not the main topic of study while keeping realistic aerosol distributions and aerosol radiative forcings.

Finally, further developments by CNRS-IPSL included the implementation of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) in a lower resolution model (96x95 horizontal resolution) – this configuration is currently being tested. The optical properties of black carbon (BC) are treated following an internal mixture scheme described in Wang et al. (2016).

The aerosol consolidation work carried out by CNRM included: (1) the repartitioning of sizes within the three bins devoted to sea-salt aerosol in our climate model, and (2) a tidying up of the code, in particular with regards to the concept of dry versus wet particles. The new size repartition adopted leads to modifications in all associated aerosol properties. These properties comprise constants used in wet/dry deposition and sedimentation processes, and optical properties. The dependence of the latter to humidity has been tested. All these developments (including those related to emission above) lead to improved concentrations at the surface, and a reduced overall bias of the sea-salt AOD.

An error in the description of the hygroscopic growth of dust particles has been corrected in NorESM, as well as an error in the description of the condensation of H2SO4.

FMI has implemented the Abdul-Razzak & Ghan scheme to describe aerosol activation to cloud droplets in EC-Earth. This development now enables interactive calculation of aerosol indirect effects. The scheme is running and is currently being tested.

Developments by the MOHC also include the development of new capability to use prescribed aerosol distributions derived from the interactive aerosol scheme, GLOMAP-mode. The model is currently successfully reading in the aerosol climatologies and the development work to couple the aerosols to the radiation scheme has been completed. This code is expected to be lodged to the model library imminently and the remaining work involves coupling with the Abdul-Razzak & Ghan scheme and time updating.

Nitrogen Coupling and BudgetsCNRS-IPSL has developed a new model version that includes a parameterisation of nitrogen chemistry including NH3, NH4+, HNO3 and NO3. Nitrate aerosol can be formed in the accumulation and coarse modes when sea salt and dust are present. This parameterisation is a simplified version of the chemistry described in Hauglustaine et al. (2014).

Computational CostWork has been carried out by KNMI to improve the computational performance of the EC-Earth3 configuration with interactive coupling to the atmospheric chemistry and aerosol module TM5 to be used in AerChemMIP and called EC-Earth3-AerChem. (1) The number of fields exchanged between IFS and TM5 has been reduced through vertical remapping in IFS, so only the 34 levels used in TM5 are exchanged in place of the 91 used in IFS. (2) The expensive computation of mass fluxes in TM5 from the IFS spectral fields has been reduced by a factor of two. (3) The exchange of non-spectral fields between IFS and TM5 now involves all cores of TM5 instead of one. This reduced the MPI communication in the model, and is expected to increase its scalability. Further testing is ongoing.

Work is being carried out to optimise the UKCA aerosol component of UKESM1, namely GLOMAP-mode. A chunking technique and OpenMP had previously been implemented but the OpenMP directives were not giving bit comparable results. Recent work at the Met Office has fixed the

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corresponding OpenMP bugs and we expect the code changes to be lodged in time for inclusion in UKESM1.

Forcings, Diagnostics, and CMIP6 PreparationsCNRS-IPSL developed code to produce the required outputs for both CMIP6 and AerChemMIP and have started testing simulations with present day and preindustrial CMIP6 emissions of aerosols and their precursors. They can now produce routinely and for each simulation a complete table of all the terms of the aerosol budget. This allows them to compare these terms to the budget obtained in the AR5 simulations. Such comparisons enabled the detection and correction of several aspects of the modelling, for example, the injection height of aerosols from biomass burning or of sulphur dioxide emitted from stacks, and, the interpolation in time of the monthly mean emission fields of aerosols and their precursors.

The relevant CMIP6 forcing data sets for the pre-industrial and historical periods have been implemented in TM5 by KNMI. These include the emission data sets from both anthropogenic and biomass burning sources, as well as mixing ratios of methane, carbon dioxide and stratospheric ozone. For anthropogenic emissions, a more detailed sector dependence of the size distribution and solubility of primary emissions of carbonaceous particles has been introduced, e.g. by making explicit use of the supplementary information on solid biofuel combustion emissions, provided as part of the CMIP6 anthropogenic emissions from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). Because the model does not include a comprehensive stratospheric chemistry scheme, ozone mixing ratios are nudged towards their desired zonal mean values, which can now be chosen to be based on the CMIP6 pre-industrial climatology or historical time series. Methane mixing ratios in the model are constrained both at the surface and in the stratosphere. At the surface, mixing ratios are nudged to concurrent zonal means from the CMIP6 data set, while in the stratosphere the annual global mean mixing ratio from CMIP6 is used with a one-year delay for scaling a present-day climatology from the HALOE (Halogen Occultation Experiment) satellite instrument.

New output routines have also been implemented in TM5 by KNMI to fulfill the data request of AerChemMIP and CRESCENDO. Defining the output variables is still in progress.

Version 4.0 of LPJ-GUESS was released by ULUND in Dec 2016 with numerous bugfixes, adjustments and technical improvements as well as support for multiple land cover fractions and land use in each gridcell including croplands, pastures, managed forests in addition to climate-driven potential vegetation (PNV) as in earlier model versions. The version of LPJ-GUESS in EC-Earth was re-synchronised with version 4.0. Furthermore, the CMIP6 nitrogen deposition, land use (LUH2) and CO2 forcing datasets were implemented and tested.

EC-Earth was configured to enable CMIP6 DECK and Tier 1 experiments in which N deposition, land use and CO2 are held at 1850 levels, and for 4*CO2 experiments.

Work has been done by CNRM to finalise the CMIP6-AerChemMIP configuration of the model with regards to aerosols. This includes (1) adapting the CMIP6 tropospheric aerosol emissions and the CMIP6 volcanic aerosols to our climate model; (2) testing and tuning the model with regards to aerosols; (3) implementing the required code to satisfy the CMIP6 data request in terms of diagnostics. All these model developments will provide benefits to the CRESCENDO project.

AMIP-type and nudged simulations (nudged towards ERA-Interim) have been carried out by MetNo with both present-day and preindustrial emissions to estimate the ERF in the updated NorESM model. The anthropogenic emissions used in these simulations were from the CMIP5 emission data set but the simulations are indicative of the pre-industrial to present-day forcings expected from the updated model. A manuscript [Kirkevåg et al., in prep.] is being written describing the updates in the atmospheric aerosol scheme since the CMIP5 version of NorESM. This model version is also being used in a range of ongoing AEROCOM model intercomparison experiments. The final tuning of the NorESM version which will be used for CMIP6 is not finished, implying that possibly certain assumptions for the natural aerosols may have to be re-evaluated.

The MOHC have been making extensive preparations for CMIP6. In addition to finalising the science in UKESM1 and tuning, work has been ongoing on the preparation of CMIP6 forcings and adding new diagnostics to meet the AerChemMIP diagnostic request. F. O’Connor from the MOHC also acted as

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the topical editor handling the review process for the AerChemMIP description paper (Collins et al., 2017) and is currently handling the paper describing the historical anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols for CMIP6 (Hosely et al., 2017).

Modifications or delays to original Work Plan:

KNMI/FMI decided to put more effort into improving the description of secondary organic aerosols in EC-Earth3-AerChem.

Any difficulties encountered, how have they been overcome or what action still needs to be taken:

Positive outcomes or activities to note:

Pierre Nabat attended the CRESCENDO meeting in Rome in September 2016, and Martine Michou attended the AeroCom meeting in Beijing in September 2016.

The development activities by KNMI/FMI have made the atmospheric composition component of EC-Earth3-AerChem compliant with the relevant CMIP6 forcing data sets, and have improved the description of secondary organic aerosols as well as the treatment of the carbonaceous particle emissions from various anthropogenic sectors. With these improvements, the model produces more realistic simulations of the overall aerosol distribution, in particular in terms of particles number concentrations.

Two important improvements compared to the previous version of the IPSL coupled model (IPSLCM5) are noteworthy: 1. The aerosols are computed interactively and nitrate aerosols are represented both on the fine and coarse mode of the aerosol. 2. Black carbon is treated as an internal mixture, and aerosol absorption is hence much better accounted for as shown when comparing with measurements from the Aeronet network (Wang et al., 2016).

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication (D/E/C) activities completed during this reporting period, to include the following details (please include for as many activities that are applicable):

Hardiman et al., The Met Office HadGEM3-ES Chemistry-Climate Model: Evaluation of stratospheric dynamics and its impact on ozone, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1209-1232, 2017.

Morgenstern et al., Review of the global models used within the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 639-671, 2017.

Wang et al., Estimation of global black carbon direct radiative forcing and its uncertainty constrained by observations, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, doi:10.1002/2015JD024326, 2016.

Poster presentation at EGU 2017 of P. Nabat: “Aerosol modelling in CNRM-ESM: evaluation of recent developments on natural aerosols and implications for aerosol radiative forcing”

Any other things to note e.g. Project Management tasks, Inter-Work Package discussions

Progress against specific milestones and deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name

Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Progress

MS15 Initial set of simulations for

Month 24 Model output available for evaluation on

Protocol revised from original but will better meet the requirements of the corresponding evaluation work package

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evaluation tests completed

shared data space i.e. JASMIN

i.e. WP6. Telecon due to take place in April 2017 to discuss evaluation datasets and simulations.Significant progress has been made on preparing the CMIP6 models, with appropriate CMIP6 forcings and requested diagnostics.

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Progress

D3.1 Report describing improved representation of natural aerosols and trace gas processes and coupling in European ESMs

MOHC Report

Public

60 Work is ongoing on integrating the representation of wildfire emissions, marine emissions, and terrestrial biogenic volatile organic (BVOC) emissions into respective ESMs. A number of models have already implemented new and/or improved secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation schemes.

The next reporting periodComments on work to be undertaken during this reporting period (please include notes on any dependencies on previous or upcoming work, and on other Work Packages):

During the next reporting period KNMI’s work will focus on tuning of EC-Earth3-AerChem in terms of the simulated climate and processes related to the atmospheric composition (e.g. mineral dust emissions and lightning NOx production). Furthermore, KNMI will work on completing the set of diagnostic output variables requested for CRESCENDO in addition to those required for AerChemMIP. KNMI will also carry out one or more atmosphere-only simulations with EC-Earth3-AerChem, which will provide the input to the evaluations in WP6.

CNRM will carry out the set of CRESCENDO simulations agreed in WP3 for evaluation in WP6. In parallel, there will be a focus on the parametrisation of dust aerosols.

The new wildfire model BLAZE and terrestrial BVOC speciation will be implemented in LPJ-GUESS and its EC-Earth branch. Offline testing will be carried out, and coupling of the new fields to TM5 will begin.

Work over the coming 6 months at the MOHC will include the finalisation of tunings for UKESM1, starting DECK experiments and running the set of CRESCENDO simulations agreed in WP3 for evaluation in WP6.

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication activities planned for this reporting period:

Upcoming milestones/deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name

Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Comments

See above

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Comments

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BIANNUAL WP4 PROGRESS REPORT

Months: 13-18 Work Package: 4 (Evaluating terrestrial processes in ESMs)

Report submitted by: Sönke Zaehle (MPG)

Contributors: CNR, CMCC, ENEA, ETH, LSCE, MOHC, MPG, UEXE, ULUND, CNRM

General Work Package Progress: Comments on work undertaken during this reporting period:

CNR:- task 4.3: prepared gridded and upscaled satellite data (fire, rainfall, tree phenology) for model evaluation. Worked on a paper to study the importance of grass cover and tree-fire responses for the emergence of biomes in sub-tropical Africa. Analysis of model representation of snow cover and of elevation-dependent warming processes.

CNRM:- task 4.3: New PFT-scale LAI product developed, which might be of interest for task 4.3.

CMCC:-task 4.3: initiated collaboration with ENEA and MOHC to evaluate fAPAR using MODIS

ENEA:-task 4.3: The following data sets for evaluation have been identified: LAI [Boston University-LAI3g, period: 1982-2010; GLCF-GLASS, period: 1982-2012; COPERNICUS, period: 1999-present], albedo [GLCF-GLASS, period 1981-2010; COPERNICUS, period 1999-2014 (extension to present-day expected in june 2017)]. The proposed analysis includes: variability and drift of LAI and albedo; forced variance and coupling between albedo, LAI and surface temperature, precipitation; links between LAI and albedo. Methodology is described in Catalano et al. (2016) and Alessandri et al. (2016). Parts of the metrics have been developed in matlab and part in R. At this stage, we are not committing to implement these metrics into the ESMVal-Tool. We might consider the possibility of an implementation into the ESMVal-Tool at a later stage for a subset of the metrics developed in R.-task 4.3: The analysis identified a global overestimation of surface albedo in EC-Earth with respect to MODIS observational data, leading to significant cold biases in surface temperature. The effects of the improved albedo parameterization developed in WP 1 have been analyzed on a set of 3 historical AMIP simulations with prescribed observational vegetation (LAI3g dataset) spanning 28 years (1982-2009). Realistic albedo values for each vegetation and soil types, together with a realistic discrimination of desert albedo, lead to a significant improvement of regional and global climatologies of surface temperature and precipitation.

ETH:-task 4.3: in process of implementing land-cover effects on albedo into ESMVal-Tool-task 4.3: work to evaluate ET and LST at the tile-level (ongoing work, possibly entering ESMVal-Tool at a later stage)

FMI:-task 4.2: upscaling site-data to regional only possible for northern latitude due to data shortage in temperature and tropical ecosystems-task 4.2: atmospheric inversion for methane have been collected (4 models). Metrics to be implemented to ESMValTool this year-task 4.2: two sites for site-level evaluation available (only for JULES), 20 more pending

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CRNS-IPSL: -task 4.1: progress on an “evaluation tool” of model GPP using i) atmospheric COS data with a pre-calculated transport operator and ii) Solar Induce Fluorescence (SIF from GOSAT) with a statistical linear relationship between GPP and SIF

MPG: -task 4.1: first draft of carbon/turnover metrics for ESMValTool send to RT leaders, -task 4.1: production of site-level evaluation scripts begun, modelling protocol established and forcing data produced.-task 4.3: landcover metric (in extension of LMU evaluation package) for ESMValTool is being developed, test case exists-task 4.3: site-selection for C-response to landcover change and modeling protocol finalised

MOHC: -taks 4.1: some progress on GPP metrics, but ongoing work. Will be coordinated with MPI-task 4.2: developed some metrics for permafrost site-level evaluation (temperature and carbon profiles), and also permafrost extent and active layer depth. This is being coordinated with ULUND and FMI-task 4.2: site-level driving data are in preparation-task 4.3 (new activity: some interest in better quantifying phenology biases in collaboration with ENEA and CMCC)

ULUND: -task 4.1: First offline evaluation of global vegetation distribution and dynamics, and global carbon and nitrogen pools and fluxes (1870-2014), forced with CMIP6 land use (LUH2) and N deposition. Comparison with LPJ-GUESS 4.0 driven by CRU-NCEP. Matlab script to compare vegetation cover and type with MODIS VCF product completed. -Task 4.2. The process of reintegrating permafrost and wetland/CH4 functionality in LPJ-GUESS 4.0 and the EC-Earth branch was begun. -Tasks 4.1 and 4.2. Additional output fields for offline site (FACE) and global runs added. CMOR-ization tools added and testing begun ahead of ESMValTool evaluation in the coming period.

Modifications or delays to original Work Plan:

CNRS-IPSL: Comprehensive evaluation of the Nitrogen cycle and forest management module (forest height, biomass, …), globally, delayed as the version containing the nitrogen – carbon interactions and forest management is still under completion.

Any difficulties encountered, how have they been overcome or what action still needs to be taken:

Positive outcomes or activities to note:

ENEA started a collaboration with KNMI and ECMWF on the analysis of the effects of an improved representation of land vegetation processes in IFS-HTESSEL (project PROCEED, http://projects.knmi.nl/proceed/).

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication (D/E/C) activities completed during this reporting period, to include the following details (please include for as many activities that are applicable):

CNR: - Poster presentations at EGU 2017, Vienna 25-28 April 2017: 1) D’Onofrio, D., Baudena, M., von Hardenberg J.; Evaluation of DGVMs in tropical areas: linking patterns of vegetation cover, climate and fire to ecological processes;

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2) D’Onofrio, D., Baudena, M., von Hardenberg J.; The distribution of grasslands, savannas and forests in Africa: a new look at the relationships between vegetation, fire and climate at continental scale; 3) Davini, P., Corti, S., D’Andrea, F., Riviere, G. von Hardenberg, J.: Atmospheric blocking in the Climate SPHINX simulations: the role of orography and resolution; 4) Palazzi, E., Mortarini, L., Terzago, S., von Hardenberg, J.: Impact of the model resolution on the simulation of elevation-dependent warming in the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas, Greater Alpine Region, and Rocky mountains- Oral presentation at EGU 2017, Vienna 25-28 April 2017: 1) Terzago, S, Palazzi, E., von Hardenberg, J.: The representation of snow in the EC-Earth climate model: the impact of horizontal resolution- Publications: 1) Terzago, S., von Hardenberg, J., Palazzi, E., and Provenzale, A.: Snow water equivalent in the Alps as seen by gridded datasets, CMIP5 and CORDEX climate models, The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-280, in review, 20172) Davini, P., von Hardenberg, J., Corti, S., Christensen, H. M., Juricke, S., Subramanian, A., … Palmer, T. N. (2016). Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in climate simulations. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 1383–1402. http://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-115

ENEA:-Oral presentation at the EC-Earth meeting, Reading 02-03 November 2016:Alessandri A., Catalano F., De Felice M., Van Den Hurk B., Balsamo G., Boussetta S., Doblas Reyes F., Miller P., Li Q., Wyser K.: Progresses in coupling biophysical processes in HTESSEL: effects on surface climate simulation and prediction.-Oral presentations at the EGU General Assembly 2017, Vienna 25-28 April 2017:1) Catalano F., Alessandri A., De Felice M., Zhu Z., Myneni R.: Observationally Based Analysis of Land-Atmosphere Coupling.2) Alessandri A., De Felice M., Catalano F., Lee J.-Y., Wang B., Lee D. Y., Yoo J.-H.: Grand European and Asian-Pacific multi-model seasonal forecasts: maximization of skill and of potential economical value to end-users.- Poster presentation at the EGU General Assembly 2017, Vienna 25-28 April 2017:Alessandri A., Catalano F., De Felice M., Van Den Hurk B., Doblas Reyes F., Boussetta S., Balsamo G., Miller P. A.: Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth.- Alessandri A., De Felice M., Catalano F., Lee J.-Y., Wang B., Lee D. Y., Yoo J.-H., Weisheimer A. (2017): Grand European and Asian-Pacific multi-model seasonal forecasts: maximization of skill and of potential economical value to end-users, Clim. Dyn., under review.- A. Alessandri, F. Catalano, M. De Felice, B. Van Den Hurk, F. Doblas Reyes, S. Boussetta, G. Balsamo, P. Miller (2016): Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth, Clim. Dyn.(in press). doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3372-4

FMI-Poster presentation at EGU 2017, Vienna 25-28 April 2017:Y. Gao, E. Burke, S. Chadburn, M. Raivonen, J. Susiluoto, T.Vesala, M. Aurela, A. Lohila , and T. Aalto. Evaluation of modelled methane emissions over northern peatland sites, EGU2017-13231

Any other things to note e.g. Project Management tasks, Inter-Work Package discussionsN/A

Progress against specific milestones and deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Progress

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Deliv. no.

Deliv. name

Lead partner

Type Diss. level Expected Delivery Date

Progress

The next reporting periodComments on work to be undertaken during this reporting period (please include notes on any dependencies on previous or upcoming work, and on other Work Packages):

CNR: plans to develop specific criteria for evaluating the DGVMs ability in simulating vegetation in tropical areas (specifically sub-Saharan Africa), based on the relationships between precipitation, fire, tree and grass cover from satellite observations.

CNRS-IPSL: Performing all simulations planed in CRESCENDO for the evaluation of the model.

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication activities planned for this reporting period:

CNR: plans to submit during the next reporting period a paper on the analysis of climate-fire-vegetation satellite observational data in sub-Saharan Africa.

Upcoming milestones/deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Comments

22 Framework for evaluating offline simulations made in WP1 available

M18 report In progress

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Comments

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BIANNUAL WP5 PROGRESS REPORT

Months: 13-18 Work Package: 5 (Evaluating marine processes in ESMs)

Report submitted by: Roland Séférian (MF-CNRM)

Contributors:CNRS-IPSL, MPG, CMCC, SMHI, MF-CNRM, UEA, UiB, NOC

General Work Package Progress: Comments on work undertaken during this reporting period:

During the first 18 months of the CRESCENDO project, most of the groups involved in WP5 (and WP2 also) have focussed their work on global scale assessment. This is explained because modelling groups are currently preparing and tuning their model version for CMIP6.Particular group progress is listed below:

Task: 5.1. Global-scale assessment of improved marine biogeochemistry:

CNRS-IPSL:-Comparison of 3 global configurations of different resolution of NEMO-PISCES forced by atm. reanalysis and by increasing atmospheric CO2 over the last decades. The 3 configurations only differ by their horizontal resolution, from ORCA2 (nominal resolution of 2°) to ORCA025 (nominal resolution of 0.25°). First results show a much better agreement of the simulated stock of anthropogenic carbon in the Arctic ocean when compared to individual cruises or to the new GLODAP v2 product. These results demonstrate the importance of a better representation of Arctic circulation and of lateral transfer of anthropogenic carbon from the North Atlantic to the Arctic Ocean.

-POC reactivity (Aumont et al. Biogeosciences in press): We introduced a description of the variable composition of POC based on the theoretical Reactivity Continuum Model proposed by (Boudreau and Ruddick, 1991) in NEMO-PISCES. Our model experiments show that accounting for a variable lability of POC increases POC concentrations in the ocean’s interior by one to two orders of magnitude. Comparison with observations is significantly improved both in abundance and in size distribution. Furthermore, the amount of carbon that reaches the sediments is increased by more than a factor of two, which is in better agreement with global estimates of the sediment oxygen demand.

CMCC:- ESMValTool was deployed into our system and used to perform basic analysis on CMIP5 biogeochemical datasets.- A processing chain of CMCC-ESM outputs is under development to enable the evaluation of new simulations using ESMValTool.

UiB:- Model skill assessment/process evaluation: Progress has been made to implement ESMvalTool for use with NorESM output, but the process is not finished. - UiB is in the process of hiring a new model evaluation infrastructure person (to replace Detelina Ivanova) in order to distribute model output

SMHI:SMHI has carried out a ~350 year PISCES/NEMO3.6 simulation forced by DFS5.2. The model shows almost everywhere to low winter nutrient concentrations as well as to low oxygen concentrations around Antarctica. A couple model NEMO/PISCES/IFS has been setup successfully that shows the same shortcomings. Most likely, the model biases are related to insufficient model physics.

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MF-CNRM:- Adaptation of data-processing script for some biogeochemical tracers like DMS in R to be compliant with ESMvalTool- Start developing basic set of diagnostics for ocean tracers for ESMValTool

NOC:UKESM1 is currently in the late stages of technical development. All relevant model components have been integrated successfully, and the complete model is in a period of verification and tuning. Ocean-only spin-up of physics and the interior carbon cycle is now in its second stage, with an improved forcing regime that supports a more acceptable ocean circulation.Ocean model evaluation is focused on maintaining a realistic circulation within which the marine biogeochemistry can be brought towards equilibration. Current spin-up strategy is to use coupled model output to force more computationally-efficient ocean-only simulations. Ocean physics and biogeochemistry are evaluated at this stage with an emphasis on global, regional and profile metrics of bulk properties, circulation and biogeochemical processes.

As of April 2017, project tasks at NOC will additionally be shared with Dr. Julien Palmieri when he formally joins NOC in a wider UKESM-related role.

Task 5.2 : Regional-scale assessment of deep convection & upwelling system, oxygen minimum zone and coastal shelves:

UEA:Continued development of a prognostic biogeochemical model for marine N2O using the PlankTOM10-NEMOv3.1 model. Diagnostics for validation developed using databases MEMENTO, MAREDAT, and World Ocean Atlas. Publication in prep: Buitenhuis, E., P. Suntharalingam, and C. Le Quere, “Global estimates of ocean N2O air-sea fluxes from multiple data constraints”, Biogeosciences, in. prep. for submission in Spring 2017.

Task 5.3 : Assessing variability, drift and trends of relevant biogeochemical fields:

MPG:- Analyses of interannual to decadal variability for oxygen concentration and carbon fluxes using a large ensemble of MPI-ESM-LR simulation (CMIP5).- OMIP-like simulations (derived from NCEP forcings) are currently conducted to better understand processes.

Modifications or delays to original Work Plan:

Any difficulties encountered, how have they been overcome or what action still needs to be taken:

UiB:Team change/issues: Shuan Gao, our UiB Crescendo researcher, is currently on maternity leave. She will work part time in this year nevertheless. We try to find a solution to bridge the gap.

SMHI:Jenny Hieronymus will soon leave for several months due to maternity leave.

Positive outcomes or activities to note:

NOC:A regular newsletter is prepared by UKESM, and a section on marine biogeochemistry was published in this in July 2016 ( http://www.jwcrp.org.uk/research-activity/ukesm-marine.asp?dm_i=1XRP,4DVA3,MB0HBU,G4W6H,1).

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Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication (D/E/C) activities completed during this reporting period, to include the following details. Please include for as many activities that are applicable;

Publications:

UIB:Eyring, V., Gleckler, P. J., Heinze, C., Stouffer, R. J., Taylor, K. E., Balaji, V., Guilyardi, E., Joussaume, S., Kindermann, S., Lawrence, B. N., Meehl, G. A., Righi, M., and Williams, D. N.: Towards improved and more routine Earth system model evaluation in CMIP, Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 813-830, doi:10.5194/esd-7-813-2016, 2016.

Presentations at conferences:

MF-CNRM:Inconsistent strategiesto spin up models in CMIP5andeffects on model performance assessment” ; AGU fall meeting, San Francisco, US. Roland Séférian (MF-CNRM). 25-27 Dec 2016. Oral presentation (invited, plenary).

Any other things to note e.g. Project Management tasks, Inter-Work Package discussions

Progress against specific milestones and deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Progress

28 Framework for evaluating offline simulations made in WP2 available.

April 2017 Internal report

Completed

29 Initial set of marine biogeochemistry metrics available for ESMValTool

June 2017 Internal report

In progress

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Progress

The next reporting periodComments on work to be undertaken during this reporting period (please include notes on any dependencies on previous or upcoming work, and on other Work Packages):

N/A

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication activities planned for this reporting period:

NOC staff will directly participate in the future on communications activities. These include the Summer Science Exhibition run by the UK's Royal Society during July 2017.

Upcoming milestones/deliverables

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Milestone no.

Milestone name

Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Comments

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Comments

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BIANNUAL WP6 PROGRESS REPORT

Months: 13-18 Work Package: 6 (Evaluating natural aerosol and trace gas processes)

Report submitted by: (WP leader name)Ken Carslaw (UNIVLEEDS)

Contributors: (Partners acronyms)ULEEDS, CNRS-IPSL, MOHC, KNMI, MetNo, MF-CNRM, ULUND

General Work Package Progress: Comments on work undertaken during this reporting period:

An outline plan for the evaluation of the aerosols and trace gases in the ESMs has been developed and agreed among the partners.

Four working groups have been created to take responsibility for the collection of specific observation datasets and the evaluation of all the models against these datasets. These groups are led by: Fire aerosol (UNIVLEEDS and KNMI), biogenic secondary organic aerosol (UNIVLEEDS, FMI), dust and nutrients (CNRS-IPSL, MF-CNRM), marine aerosol (MetNo, MF-CNRM), pristine aerosol environments (UNIVLEEDS).

The design of the common model experiments has been agreed. We will perform 15-year AMIP simulations for the pre-industrial (1750 and possibly 1850) and present day (2000-2015). We leave open the option to also do shorter nudged simulations.

MetNo worked in particular on the evaluation of marine aerosols as a component of the natural background aerosol. A list of available observations from different networks has been compiled and the feasibility of including it in a benchmark dataset is explored. The datasets comprise sea salt, sulphur components, organic aerosol and total marine number concentrations. They will be initially tested with the AeroCom tools at MetNo, so that they can be used in a second step also by other tools, such as the esmvaltool. Model diagnostics needed to make the evaluation of the ESMs possible have been included in the AerChemMIP data request (Collins et al., 2017). MetNo was responsible for compiling this data request.

UNIVLEEDS worked on the compilation of in situ aerosol measurements from the GASSP database. The database is being improved to enable the data to be compared with CF-compliant diagnostics from the models in an automated way.

The CNRM was not involved in the first part in the WP6 activities for which we report here, that is evaluating natural aerosols. They contributed to developing a plan for the joint modelling activities that will feed the WP6 evaluation tasks. They have started to make use for our own evaluation purposes of the ESMValTool with supportive contacts at DLR.

Modifications or delays to original Work Plan:

We are on target to meet the M24 milestone to prepare the first model simulations and the deliverable in M36 on the first model evaluation.

Any difficulties encountered, how have they been overcome or what action still needs to be taken:

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None

Positive outcomes or activities to note:

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication (D/E/C) activities completed during this reporting period, to include the following details (please include for as many activities that are applicable): None

Any other things to note e.g. Project Management tasks, Inter-Work Package discussions

We have discussed the importance of joint meetings particularly with WP4 on the evaluation of terrestrial models. For example, it is unclear where the evaluation of modelled burnt area will be performed because it is important to both WPs 4 and 6. We have an action item to establish the inter-WP link.

Progress against specific milestones and deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name

Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Progress

MS34 Framework for evaluating offline simulations

M21 (should be 18)

Review and agreement by partners

Discussed and prepared in outline. Important details will be added based on the outcomes of the observation data working groups

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Progress

D6.2 Evaluation of aerosol and trace gas processes in first set of model simulations

UNIVLEEDS Public M36 (Oct 2018)

Observation data collection planned and underway through working groups. Model simulations are planned.

The next reporting periodComments on work to be undertaken during this reporting period (please include notes on any dependencies on previous or upcoming work, and on other Work Packages):

Over the next 6 months we expect to have completed most of the observation data collection and, following the September GA, we will have identified the most appropriate datasets and metrics to use in the model evaluation. The first model simulations will be completed using pre-CRESCENDO models and we should have preliminary evaluations.

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication activities planned for this reporting period:

Upcoming milestones/deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name

Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Comments

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MS35 Initial set of aerosol metrics available for ESMValTool

M24 (should be 20)

Internal Report This is delayed because there is some work to be done to define the best metrics based on the datasets, which cannot be done before we have completed data collection.

MS36 Process evaluation of the initial model simulations

M30 Internal Report Planned in outline.

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Comments

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BIANNUAL WP7 PROGRESS REPORT

Months: 13-18 Work Package: 7 (Towards routine benchmarking of ESMs)

Report submitted by: (WP leader name)Alexander Loew (LMU)

Contributors: (Partners acronyms)DLR, SMHI, MOHC, UREAD, ENEA, ETH, UNEXE

General Work Package Progress: Comments on work undertaken during this reporting period:

The following work has been undertaken within the reporting period:

Automated reporting service for ESMValTool has been successfully implemented (LMU); D7.3.

Automated testing scheme for ESMValTool has been successfully implemented (LMU) D7.3.

New diagnostics for sea surface temperature, soil moisture have been implemented (LMU) The ESMValTool v1.1.0 including an updated user’s guide has been released and made

available via GitHub (DLR, LMU). A working prototype of the ESGF coupled version of the ESMValTool has been finished

(DLR). The NCAR CVDP package implemented in the ESMValTool has been upgraded from v3.7.0

to v4.1.0 (DLR). 8 additional IPCC AR5 chapter 9 diagnostics have been implemented into the ESMValTool

(DLR). Implementation of regional downscaling diagnostics as in Chapter 9:Figure 9.38,

9.39,9.40,9.41. (ENEA). Implementation of CCMI (Chemistry Climate Model Initiative) diagnostics: Age of air , NH

Heat flux vs. Temperature, SH Heat flux vs. Temperature,vertical and latitudinal profile of HCl and Cly) (ENEA).

Modifications or delays to original Work Plan:

No modifications are needed or delays are identified at this time.

Any difficulties encountered, how have they been overcome or what action still needs to be taken:

No difficulties have been encountered so far.

Positive outcomes or activities to note:

1st ESMValTool Backend Coding Workshop held in Exeter, UK, aiming at improving the performance and flexibility of the ESMValTool backend.

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication (D/E/C) activities completed during this reporting period, to include the following details (please include for as many activities that are applicable):

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n/a

Any other things to note e.g. Project Management tasks, Inter-Work Package discussions

n/a

Progress against specific milestones and deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name

Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Progress

M39 ESMValTool prototype implemented on key ESGF nodes

April 2017 Prototype benchmarking on ESGF nodes for selected CMIP simulations

Working prototype has been finished

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Progress

D7.3 ESMValTool automated testing and Reporting package

LMU R Public

April2017

Operational testing and reporting package included in D7.3 git-branch has been finalized.

The next reporting periodComments on work to be undertaken during this reporting period (please include notes on any dependencies on previous or upcoming work, and on other Work Packages):

• ESMValTool documentation workshop will take place in Munich from 08.05.-12.05.2017• 2nd ESMValTool refactoring and coding workshop will take place in Munich from 15.05-10.05.2017

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication activities planned for this reporting period:

n/a

Upcoming milestones/deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name

Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Comments

MS40 ESMValTool with new diagnostics

Oct. 2017 Internal tagged version of ESMValTool source code with new diagnostics

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Comments

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BIANNUAL WP8 PROGRESS REPORT

Months: 13-18 Work Package: 8 (Understanding and constraining model projections)

Report submitted by: (WP leader name)Peter Cox (UNEXE)

Contributors: (Partners acronyms)UNILEEDS, CNRS-IPSL, MPG, MOHC, DLR, UEA, UHAM, UREAD, ETH, UiB

General Work Package Progress: Comments on work undertaken during this reporting period:

There has been excellent progress in WP8 in this period, with a number of important papers published, including two in the same issue of Nature Climate Change (Chadburn et al., 2017; Kwiatkowski et al., 2017).

Task 8.1: Theoretical foundations for emergent constraints (UHAM, UREAD, UNEXE)Conditions for Emergent Constraints to apply are being investigated using simple models, and through analysis of outputs from long CMIP5 control runs. The simplest single heat capacity stochastic model for global mean temperature (Hasselmann, 1976) implies simple relationships between the variability of global temperature and the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS). However, the CMIP5 models are found to diverge from these simple relationships. Attention is therefore now being focussed on a slightly more sophisticated conceptual model in which ocean heat uptake is represented as diffusion in a semi-infinite medium, rather than as a fixed heat capacity. A review paper/Milestone(MS44) is being prepared on ‘Initial theoretical guidance on the links between the current climate variability and ES sensitivity’.

Task 8.2: Emergent constraints on physical and biophysical feedbacks (ETH, DLR)Relationships have been found between model’s present-day performance in sea ice related metrics and future changes in temperature variability. These emergent constraints, can produce ensembles of models calibrated with present-day observations with a narrower spread across its members than across the full ensemble (Borodina et al., 2017).

The latest climate models all predict warming of high-latitude soils and thus thawing of permafrost under future climate change, but with widely varying magnitudes of permafrost thaw. In a paper published in Nature Climate Change, Chadburn et al. (2017) show a spatial emergent constraint – a model’s present-day spatial distribution of permafrost and air temperature can be used to infer the sensitivity of its permafrost to future global warming. Using the same approach for the observed permafrost distribution and air temperature gives an estimated sensitivity of permafrost area loss to global mean warming of about 4.0 million km2 per degree Kelvin, which is around 20% higher than previous studies. The method facilitates an assessment for COP21 climate change targets: if the climate is stabilized at 2K above pre-industrial levels, it is estimated that the permafrost area would eventually be reduced by over 40%. Stabilizing at 1.5K rather than 2K would save approximately 2 million km2 of permafrost. The Chadburn et al. (2017) paper has been covered very extensively in the media and social media ( https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/nclimate3262/metrics ).

Task 8.3: Emergent constraints on land carbon cycle feedbacks (UNEXE, DLR, CNRS-IPSL, MOHC)Following-on from the Wenzel et al. (2016) Nature paper, emergent constraints on land carbon cycle feedbacks are being combined to provide constraints on the carbon budgets associated with stabilisation at 1.5K and 2.0K. Initial results from this synthesis were presented by Chris Jones at the first CRESCENDO policy event, hosted by Seb Dance MEP at the European Parliament on February 28th 2017.

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Task 8.4: Emergent constraints on ocean carbon cycle feedbacks (UEA, CNRS-IPSL, MPG, UiB)Marine primary production is a fundamental component of the Earth system, providing the main source of food and energy to the marine food web, and influencing the concentration of atmospheric CO2. Earth system model (ESM) projections of global marine primary production are highly uncertain with models projecting both increases and declines of up to 20% by 2100. In a paper published in Nature Climate Change, Kwiatkowski et al. (2017) identify an emergent relationship between the long-term sensitivity of tropical ocean primary production to rising equatorial zone sea surface temperature (SST) and the interannual sensitivity of primary production to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven SST anomalies. Satellite-based observations of the ENSO sensitivity of tropical primary production 1998 were then used to constrain projections of the long-term climate impact on primary production. Kwiatkowski et al. (2017) estimate that tropical primary production will decline by 3 ± 1% per kelvin increase in equatorial zone SST. Under a business-as-usual emissions scenario this results in an 11 ± 6% decline in tropical marine primary production and a 6 ± 3% decline in global marine primary production by 2100.

Task 8.5: Emergent constraints on aerosols and trace gases (UNIVLEEDS, DLR)Work on this task has not yet begun.

Task 8.6: Weighting ensembles of multi-model Earth system projections (DLR, ETH)Uncertainties of climate projections are routinely assessed by considering simulations from different models. Observations are used to evaluate models, yet there is a debate about whether and how to explicitly weight model projections by agreement with observations. A straightforward weighting scheme has been developed that accounts both for the large differences in model performance and for model interdependencies. The constrained ensemble shows reduced spread and a more rapid sea ice decline than the unweighted ensemble (Knutti et al., 2017).

Modifications or delays to original Work Plan:

In the Amendment to the DoA submitted in March 2017, as agreed previously with our PO, the milestone MS43: Initial analysis of CMIP5 models for previously identified Emergent Constraints, was replaced by work on constraints on the 1.5K carbon budget, as presented at the CRESCENDo’s policy event in the European Parliament on 28/2/17 (see Task 8.3). A new deliverable was added: D8.4: Constraining allowable carbon emissions necessary for achieving 1.5 and 2C global mean warming relative to pre-industrial (PI) conditions. Month 27 (Jan 2018) Lead: UNEXE. Type: report.

Any difficulties encountered, how have they been overcome or what action still needs to be taken:

No difficulties to date.

Positive outcomes or activities to note:

Several publications in this reporting period (see below)

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication (D/E/C) activities completed during this reporting period, to include the following details (please include for as many activities that are applicable):

Borodina, A., Fischer, E.M., Knutti, R., 2017. Emergent constraints in climate projections: a case study of changes in high latitude temperature variability. Journal of Climate, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0662.1

Chadburn, S., Burke, E.J., Cox, P.M., Friedlingstein, P., Hugelius, G., Westermann, S., 2017. An observation-based constraint on permafrost as a function of global warming. Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3262

Interviews and press coverage publicising the Chadburn et al., (2017) paper in Nature Climate Change were conducted for a broad audience. Wider knowledge of the findings of Chadburn et al. (2017), and rising of the profile of the CRESCENDO project. See

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https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/nclimate3262/metrics .

Knutti, R., Sedláček, J., Sanderson, B.M., Lorenz, R., Fischer, E.M., Eyring, V., 2017. A climate model weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence. Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1002/2016GL072012

Kwiatkowki, L., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Ciais, P., Cox, P.M., Laufkötter, C., Li, Y., Séférian, R., 2017. Emergent constraints on projections of declining primary production in the tropical oceans. Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3265

Any other things to note e.g. Project Management tasks, Inter-Work Package discussionsNone as yet

Progress against specific milestones and deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Progress

MS44 Initial theoretical guidance on the links between the current climate variability and ES sensitivity

April 2017 Report UNEXE to lead

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner Type Diss. level Expected Delivery Date

Progress

The next reporting periodComments on work to be undertaken during this reporting period (please include notes on any dependencies on previous or upcoming work, and on other Work Packages):

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication activities planned for this reporting period:

Upcoming milestones/deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name

Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Comments

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Comments

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BIANNUAL WP9 PROGRESS REPORT

Months: 13-18 Work Package: 9 (Quantification of forcing and feedbacks)

Report submitted by: (WP leader name):Williams Collins (UREAD)

Contributors: UREAD, UNIVLEEDS, METNO, CNRS-IPSL, MF-CNRM, MOHC, ISAC-CNR, DLR, CMCC, MPG

General Work Package Progress: Comments on work undertaken during this reporting period:A spreadsheet has been generated from a survey of modelling groups that was carried out to get a list of model configurations and experiments that will be available for WP9 analysis. The finalised CRESCENDO/AerChemMIP experimental design has been written and submitted to GMD.

The first milestone for this WP is due in Month 30. The first deliverable is due in Month 48.

Modifications or delays to original Work Plan: None

Any difficulties encountered, how have they been overcome or what action still needs to be taken:None

Positive outcomes or activities to note:

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication (D/E/C) activities completed during this reporting period, to include the following details (please include for as many activities that are applicable):None so far

Any other things to note e.g. Project Management tasks, Inter-Work Package discussions

Progress against specific milestones and deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name

Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Progress

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Progress

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The next reporting periodComments on work to be undertaken during this reporting period (please include notes on any dependencies on previous or upcoming work, and on other Work Packages):

Start of work on Climate feedback matrix framework.

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication activities planned for this reporting period:

None

Upcoming milestones/deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name

Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Comments

MS49 Climate feedback matrix framework available

Month 30 (April 2018)

Upload of matrix to project website

Work starts in the next reporting period

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Comments

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BIANNUAL WP10 PROGRESS REPORT

Months: 13-18 Work Package: 10 (Novel climate scenarios and future projections: the CMIP6 Scenario MIP)

Report submitted by: Detlef van Vuuren (PBL) and Keywan Riahi (IIASA)

Contributors: (Partners acronyms)MOHC, UNEXE, DLR, KNMI, ETH, PBL, PIK, IIASA

General Work Package Progress: Comments on work undertaken during this reporting period:

During the reporting period, the teams have worked on making the data of the IAM teams on the SSP scenarios available for analysis with ESM models.

For this purpose, the SSP scenarios had to be finalised and documented. Documentation on the SSP scenarios was published in Global Environmental Change.Moreover, both land use and emission output needed to be harmonised with historical data for all models and subsequently downscaled. IIASA has worked on developing algorithms as part of the IIASA scenario database that allow for harmonisation of emissions across the models. Teams collaborated on subsequently applying these algorithms to the model output, doing a number of rounds of adjustments and data checks. Historical data on emissions, mostly from the CEDS database, was added to the IIASA database as well.On land use, the IAM teams submitted land use data to a team at the University of Maryland and collaborated on harmonisation. It is expected that these activities will be finished summer 2017.

Modifications or delays to original Work Plan:

The activities took time than originally planned but the output is still in time for use by ESMs in CMIP6 as planned.

New deliverable added: D10.2: Provision of the RCP1.9 scenario data to the CMIP6 modeling community. Month 21 = July 2017. Lead: IIASA. Type: website, patent fillings, etc

Any difficulties encountered, how have they been overcome or what action still needs to be taken:

The historical data was available later than originally planned. However, the team dealt with this impact mostly by using alternative data sources – and replacing these finally with the historical data as used in CMIP6.

Positive outcomes or activities to note:

The SSPs were published in a Special Issue of Global Environmental Change.

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication (D/E/C) activities completed during this reporting period, to include the following details (please include for as many activities that are applicable):

The unharmonized SSP scenarios have been already uploaded to the SSP database for dissemination at https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about

The outcomes of the SSP process were presented within various studies and conferences, including

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the World in 2050 and the IPCC expert meeting on scenarios:- Plenary talk on “The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” by Detlef van Vuuren at the Annual

Meeting of the World in 2050 (TWI2050), 3 April, 2017- Organized a session of the Scenario Working Group of the IAMC (Integrated Assessment

Modeling Consortium) with focus on the upcoming SSP products/services for climate and impacts community.

Any other things to note e.g. Project Management tasks, Inter-Work Package discussions:

Progress against specific milestones and deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Progress

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Progress

The next reporting periodComments on work to be undertaken during this reporting period (please include notes on any dependencies on previous or upcoming work, and on other Work Packages):

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication activities planned for this reporting period:

Upcoming milestones/deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Comments

MS52 Report assessing the level of uncertainty space sampled by the scenarioMIP tier 1 scenarios compared to the full range of CMIP6 scenario forcing uncertainty

June 2017 Internal report

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Comments

D10.2 Provision of the RCP1.9 scenario data to the CMIP6 modeling community

IIASA Website, patent fillings, etc

Public Month 21 (July 2017)

In progress

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BIANNUAL WP11 PROGRESS REPORT

Months: 13-18 Work Package: 11 (Assessing the robustness of ESM performance and projection response to model resolution)

Report submitted by: (WP leader name)Till Kuhlbrodt (UREAD)

Contributors: (Partners acronyms)SMHI, MPG, CNRS-IPSL, MF-CNRM, METNO, CMCC, UNIVLEEDS, NOC, MOHC

General Work Package Progress: Comments on work undertaken during this reporting period:

Work on WP11 has not yet started in earnest since the ESMs are still in the final stage of development, as can be seen from the examples below.

The preparation of DECK simulations with CMCC-ESM is ongoing. The ESM standard resolution in close to completion, with the physical core frozen at beginning of 2017 and the ocean biogeochemistry setup in final testing phase.

The EC-EARTH model configuration with interactive vegetation has been successfully tested in collaboration with the developers of LPJ-Guess, analysis of the results is on-going. The vegetation scheme is forced with the LUH2 dataset that describes the land-use changes for CMIP6. The low resolution configuration of EC-EARTH is under development, it requires minor adjustments in the MAC2SP aerosol scheme.

MPI-M stays with T63 resolution as the main model version MPI-ESM-LR. The work is continuing on the final testing of the coupling between new JSBACH components, while the physical climate model is fixed. MPI-M completed two Holocene runs (8,000 yr) with a preliminary version of JSBACH. Publication of the Hamburg Holocene team is in preparation, several presentations are planned at EGU-2017 and 10th ICDC. The HR-version (A:T127 / O:TP04) is finalized. DECK runs are in testing phase for both LR and HR versions. The T31 version (CR- crude resolution for paleo-applications) is in the tuning phase.

For UKESM, work on preparing the model for the CMIP6 DECK simulations is ongoing. The scientific configuration of the physical climate model (HadGEM3 GC3.1) has been frozen in Dec 2016. The spin-up runs under pre-industrial conditions are continuing. The full ESM at low resolution is technically fit to run and is currently in the final phase of scientific development.

Modifications or delays to original Work Plan:

Spatial resolution of CRESCENDO Earth System Models for CMIP6:

Model

Higher resolution version

Lower resolution version

Atmosphere Ocean Atmosphere Ocean

CMCC-ESM 1° 0.25° 1° 1°

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CNRM-ESM T359 0.25° T127 1°

EC-Earth T255 1° T159 1°

IPSL-ESM 1.3°x 0.65° 0.25° 2.5°x 1.25° 1°

MPI-ESM T127 0.4° T63 (T31) 1.5° (3°)

NorESM 0.9°x 1.25° 1°/ 0.25° 1.9°x 2.5° 1°

UKESM 0.6° 0.25° 1.5° 1°

Most modelling centres will use the lower resolution version for the bulk of the CMIP6 simulations. Exception: EC-Earth

Time line for the CMIP6 DECK simulations to be finished:

Modelling Centre Higher resolution Lower resolutionCMCC End 2018 (no hist) Early 2018 (+ hist)CNRM Early 2018 Mid/ End 2017EC-Earth End 2017 End 2017IPSL End 2018 Mid 2017MPI Early 2017 Mid 2017NorESM Mid 2018 End 2017UKESM End 2018 End 2017

“hist”: CMIP6 historical simulation (1850 to 2014)

Any difficulties encountered, how have they been overcome or what action still needs to be taken:

See section above.

Positive outcomes or activities to note:

The deadline for the deliverable D11.1 of WP11 has been moved by 18 months. This is a positive development since in this way for most ESMs both the lower-resolution and the higher-resolution simulations are expected to be available for the planned traceability analyses.

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication (D/E/C) activities completed during this reporting period, to include the following details (please include for as many activities that are applicable):None

Any other things to note e.g. Project Management tasks, Inter-Work Package discussions

Progress against specific milestones and deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name Expected Delivery

Means of verification

Progress

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dateMS55 Low resolution

versions of ESMs run for a subset of CMIP DECK simulations

April 2018 Simulations produced

Preparation of the ESMs for the CMIP DECK runs

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Progress

D11.1 Report on the traceability of performance and future projection responses between low and standard resolution ESMs

UREAD Report Public April 2020

The next reporting periodComments on work to be undertaken during this reporting period (please include notes on any dependencies on previous or upcoming work, and on other Work Packages):

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication activities planned for this reporting period:

Upcoming milestones/deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name

Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Comments

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Comments

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BIANNUAL WP12 PROGRESS REPORT

Months: 13-18 Work Package: 12 (Organising ESM simulations for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP)

Report submitted by: (WP leader name)Ralf Doescher (SMHI)

Contributors: (Partners acronyms)CNRS-IPSL, MPG, CMCC, MOHC, UNEXE, DLR, KNMI, UREAD, MF-CNRM, ETH, UiB (Uni Research), PBL, PIK, CNR, IIASA

General Work Package Progress: Comments on work undertaken during this reporting period:WP12 starts after M24 and no work has been done to date.

Modifications or delays to original Work Plan: WP12 starts after M24 and no work has been done to date.

Any difficulties encountered, how have they been overcome or what action still needs to be taken:

Positive outcomes or activities to note:

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication (D/E/C) activities completed during this reporting period, to include the following details (please include for as many activities that are applicable):

Any other things to note e.g. Project Management tasks, Inter-Work Package discussions

Progress against specific milestones and deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name

Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Progress

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Progress

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The next reporting periodComments on work to be undertaken during this reporting period (please include notes on any dependencies on previous or upcoming work, and on other Work Packages):WP12 starts after M24 and no work has been done to date.

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication activities planned for this reporting period:WP12 starts after M24 and no work has been done to date.

Upcoming milestones/deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name

Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Comments

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Comments

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BIANNUAL WP13 PROGRESS REPORT

Months: 13-18 Work Package: 13 (Knowledge Dissemination)

Report submitted by: Helena Martins (SMHI)

Contributors: SMHI, UNIVLEEDS, CNRS-IPSL, MPG, MOHC, DLR, SMHI, UEA, PIK

General Work Package Progress: Comments on work undertaken during this reporting period:

The tasks, deliverables and milestones in WP13 are progressing well and according to the Description of Action.

Task 13.1 Targeted interaction with policy makers:

A policy event was held the 28th of February at the European Parliament in collaboration with WhiteRose Brussels Office and with the participation of Partners UNIVLEEDS, SMHI, ETH, PBL, MOHC and UEA. The event was attended by around 40 people, including Members of the European Parliament (MEPs), European Commission officers, international networks, research agencies, business consultancies and a group of European students. The event entitled “Realizing the 2015 Paris Agreement - Pathways to and benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5C”, presented some of the science and policy insights from CRESCENDO’s scientists pertinent to realizing the Paris Agreement. These insights are now published as a policy leaflet launched at the event in seven different languages (English, French, German, Italian, Portuguese, Spanish and Swedish) with contributions from members from UNIVLEEDS, SMHI, MPI, CNRS-IPSL and CMCC. Document are available online at: https://crescendoproject.eu/crescendo-is-supporting-policy-makers-on-routes-to-realizing-the-2015-paris-agreement/. CRESCENDO was also present at the UN Conference of the Parties in Marrakesh (COP22) at the UEA (Asher Minns) exhibition stand in partnership with the FP7 project HELIX (MOHC and UNEXE).

Task 13.3 Guidance for the impacts and downscaling communities:

CRESCENDO maintains a sustained dialogue with major international projects in climate impacts research and regional climate downscaling. Contacts with the CORDEX community have been and will be maintained throughout the project taking advantage of having members of CORDEX in CRESCENDO (PIK, SMHI, MOHC).

Task 13.4 Improving public knowledge of Earth system models and projections:

A European network of Schools for Earth System Modelling and Climate Change – CRESCENDOschools is being built by Partners UNIVLEEDS, SMHI, CNRS-IPSL, MOHC and UNEXE; 3 schools in 3 different countries (France, Sweden and UK) are already engaged in the network, which is meant to grow in the upcoming years. The network will explore the science of global change and the scientific modelling techniques CRESCENDO’s scientists use to understand and predict climate change. The overall aim is to help define and develop an appropriate suite of education resources, such as web based documents, online videos, serious games, social networking, etc. on the science of climate change and climate modelling, targeted to the needs and interests of science students in the approximate age range 16-19 years old.The CRESCENDOschools initiative will support the development of the website on how Earth system models work, how they represent the Earth system and generate future projections.

Task 13.5 Interaction between CRESCENDO and CMIP6:

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CRESCENDO scientists are currently preparing their ESMs to run ScenarioMIP simulations, therefore a strong interaction between CRESCENDO and CMIP6 has been maintained namely through the CRESCENDO scientists that are also members of ScenarioMIP (DLR, PBL, IIASA, UNEXE, ETH).

Modifications or delays to original Work Plan:

As per the Amendment to the DoA submitted in March 2017, the deliverable D13.2 was moved to March 2017 and a new deliverable, D13.10, has been added (June 2018): Lead: UNIVLEEDS. Type: website, patent fillings, etc.

Any difficulties encountered, how have they been overcome or what action still needs to be taken:

none

Positive outcomes or activities to note:

A conference call between PRIMAVERA’s and CRESCENDO’s communication teams was held the 6th of February. Each team presented its communication plans and activities, and possible synergies between projects were discussed.

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication (D/E/C) activities completed during this reporting period, to include the following details (please include for as many activities that are applicable):

A policy event entitled “Realizing the 2015 Paris Agreement - Pathways to and benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5C” was held the 28th of February at the European Parliament. The event presented some of the science and policy insights from CRESCENDO’s scientists pertinent to realizing the Paris Agreement. These insights are now published as a policy leaflet launched at the event in seven different languages (English, French, German, Italian, Portuguese, Spanish and Swedish) available on our website: https://crescendoproject.eu/crescendo-is-supporting-policy-makers-on-routes-to-realizing-the-2015-paris-agreement/ .

The kick-off of CRESCENDOschools in Sweden took place the 10th of January 2017. Sixty 16-year old students were at SMHI: in the morning they were introduced to the project and the schools network and listened to some inspirational talks from SMHI researchers; during the afternoon they visited the forecast centre, the meteorological and solar radiation stations, and watched climate related videos at a geodome and played the “Earth System Quiz”.

CRESCENDO was also present at the UN Conference of the Parties in Marrakesh (COP22) at the UEA (Asher Minns) exhibition stand in partnership with the FP7 project HELIX (MOHC and UNEXE).

Two Poster presentiations at the Climateurope festival in Valencia, spain (4-7 April 2017) entitled:1) CRESCENDO: Advancing the next generation of European Earth system models. Taraka

Davies-Barnard, Chris D Jones, Ken Carslaw, Hamish Gordon, Alberto Munoz and Colin Jones (on behalf of the CRESCENDO Project).

2) CRESCENDOschools: Network of schools for Earth system modeling and climate change. Alberto Munoz , Helena Martins, Nada Caud, Taraka Davies-Barnard and Colin Jones.

Two Oral presentations at the Climateurope festival in Valencia, spain (4-7 April 2017) entitled:1) How climate models and ESMs provide the base for climate services. Ralf Döscher

(SMHI and WP12 leader).2) CRESCENDO project: Land Use cover and terrestrial carbon cycle processes in the

context of future global change. Taraka Davies-Barnard (UNEXE)

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Any other things to note e.g. Project Management tasks, Inter-Work Package discussions

Progress against specific milestones and deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name

Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Progress

- - - - -

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Progress

13.2 Policymaker oriented info sheet on use of Earth system models for investigating possible pathways to limiting global warming to 1.5/2C Part I

UNIVLEEDS

Websites, patents filling, etc.

Public

March 2017 Completed

The next reporting periodComments on work to be undertaken during this reporting period (please include notes on any dependencies on previous or upcoming work, and on other Work Packages):

Continue building the CRESCENDOschools network: visits to the schools; support to the production of educational resources such as documents, presentations, quizzes, and videos; supervision of some students in one of their science assignments; interaction between CRESCENDO’s scientists and students.

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication activities planned for this reporting period:

- CRESCENDO in partnership with UKESM project (NERC-MetOffice, UK) will participate at the Royal Society Summer Science Exhbition 2017, 3-9 July, in London, UK, expected to be visited by up to 15000 people over the 7 days of the exhibition.

- Abstract submitted to the EMS Annual Meeting: European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2017, 4-8 September 2017, Dublin, Ireland, for the Session ES3.1: Education and training: At schools, for the public, for stakeholders and professionals

- CRESCENDO’s training workshop for Science Communication training for young scientists (Task 13.2 Science communication training) is scheduled to take place the 25th of September 2017, immediately before the 2017 General Assembly to be held in from Tuesday 26th to Thursday 28th September 2017 in Paris, France. The target audience will be young scientists from CRESCENDO project but also other possibly interested.

Upcoming milestones/deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name

Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Comments

- - - - -

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Comments

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BIANNUAL WP14 PROGRESS REPORT

Months: 13-18 Work Package: 14 (Data Dissemination)

Report submitted by: (WP leader name)Stefan Lange (PIK)

Contributors: (Partners acronyms)PIK, CNRS-IPSL, UREAD, MPG, CMCC, MET Norway, SMHI, MF-CNRM, UiB

General Work Package Progress: Comments on work undertaken during this reporting period:

Task 14.1 Along with the activites of WP1 and WP2, CMCC group is working on the processing chain of our ESM model outputs to comply with CMIP requests and for loading data on the ESGF system.

At UiB (with affiliate Uni Research Climate), the preparations for data submission of NorESM results to the CMIP6 archive are on track. The Norwegian ESGF node is up-to-date and ready for serving CMIP6 data. The NorESM cmor-ization tools are being upgraded from cmor2 to cmor3 and should be ready in time. Contact points for NorESM concerning CMIP6 data citation have been forwarded to DKRZ (Martina Stockhause) to ensure proper data citation later on.

Task 14.3: At PIK, the bias correction methods developed for ISIMIP2b were adjusted to avoid discontinuities in climatologies of daily mean near-surface wind speed, surface downwelling longwave radiation and sea level pressure. A fact sheet describing the methods developed and the observational dataset EWEMBI complied for bias correction in ISIMIP2b was published on the project homepage (https://www.isimip.org/gettingstarted/isimip2b-bias-correction). The EWEMBI dataset was published with a DOI (http://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2016.004).

SMHI is continuing to develop and improve the Distribution Based Scaling (DBS) bias adjustment method. Recent improvements include i) more flexible choice of distributions for different variables, ii) preserving all metadata from input CMIP5 and CORDEX files and adding additional bias-adjusted-related metadata, and iii) optimization/parallelization for large high-resolution datasets. Data Reference Syntax (DRS) for bias-adjusted CORDEX simulations was finalised and made available (http://is-enes-data.github.io/CORDEX_adjust_drs.pdf) and the first bias-adjusted CORDEX simulations have been published on ESGF under the CORDEX-adjust project. Experience gained in the publication of bias-adjusted CORDEX simulations on ESGF can be used for making bias-adjusted GCM simulations available on ESGF in a consistent way.

Modifications or delays to original Work Plan: None

Any difficulties encountered, how have they been overcome or what action still needs to be taken:None

Positive outcomes or activities to note:None

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Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication (D/E/C) activities completed during this reporting period, to include the following details (please include for as many activities that are applicable):

ISIMIP2b bias-correction fact sheet - technical documentation (https://www.isimip.org/gettingstarted/isimip2b-bias-correction). S. Lange. 07 November 2016.

EartH2Observe, WFDEI and ERA-Interim data Merged and Bias-corrected for ISIMIP (EWEMBI) - data publication via GFZ Data Services (http://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2016.004). S. Lange. 16 November 2016

Any other things to note e.g. Project Management tasks, Inter-Work Package discussionsNone

Progress against specific milestones and deliverables

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Progress

The next reporting periodComments on work to be undertaken during this reporting period (please include notes on any dependencies on previous or upcoming work, and on other Work Packages):

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication activities planned for this reporting period:

Task 14.3: Publication of ISIMIP2b bias-correction code and submission of two papers on new trend-preserving bias correction methods for radiation and humidity by partners PIK.

Upcoming milestones/deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name

Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Comments

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Comments

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BIANNUAL WP15 PROGRESS REPORT

Months: 13-18 Work Package: 15 (Project management)

Report submitted by: Alberto Munoz (UNIVLEEDS)

Contributors: MPG, MOHC, UNEXE, DLR, UEA, ETH, PBL, PIK

General Work Package Progress: Comments on work undertaken during this reporting period:The tasks, deliverables and milestones in WP15 are progressing well and according to the DoA.

Task 15.1 Management:The Project coordinator and Project manager (UNIVLEEDS) are in continuous contact with the Finance teams in NCAS and Faculty Research Office at the University of Leeds as well as with the EU Project officer in Brussels. A good level of communication has been established between the Project office and the EC acting as an efficient link between the rest of the Partners and the EC. The intranet space in the CRESCENDO website is now fully developed and documents of interest for all members of the Project as well as submitted reports are available. The Science Steering Committee has met regularly via telco or at different local meetings to review and agree on project tasks and cross-collaborations.

Task 15.2 Reporting and interfacing with the EC:Project Office has regularly communicated with Research Theme and Workpackage leaders to assess the progress of the project as a whole. To date, all Project deliverables, milestones and publications have been submitted through the Participant Portal without any problem or delay. Within the Consortium Partners, the movement of Prof Valerio Lucarini and his team from the University of Hamburg (UHAM) to University of Reading (UREAD) has been completed in January 2017. An amendment has been submitted to terminate UHAM involvement in CRESCENDO and adjust the budget beteen these two Partners. The EU Project Officer has been aware and agreed with the changes implemented in our DoA.

Any difficulties encountered, how have they been overcome or what action still needs to be taken:

An external factor which may affect the project in a near future has been known during this period. In March 2017 the UK has formally triggered article 50 to leave the EU (Brexit). The consequences of this to H2020 projects such as CRESCENDO are still to be decided in the negotiations between the UK and EU governments. To date, no immediate consequences are foreseen for CRESCENDO.

Positive outcomes or activities to note: In February 28th 2017, representatives form EASME attended our CRESCENDO 1st policy

event in Brussels. During this event, the Project coordinator and Project manager had the opportunity to catch up and dicuss several aspect of the Project with EASME’s Officers.

In April 7th 2017, the Project manager met the Faculty Research Office team to review the project budget and to help organise and assign the correct amount of the project budget to the different activities and tasks as planned during the project formulation.

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication (D/E/C) activities completed during this reporting period, to include the following details. Please include for as many activities that are

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applicable;

None so far

Any other things to note e.g. Project Management tasks, Inter-Work Package discussions

CRESCENDO is co-organising with the Project Office and the H2020 projects PRIMAVERA, Blue-Action and APPLICATE a workshop in Brussels on May 23-24th 2017 with the working titl: Evaluating climate and Earth system models at the process level, with clear implications and impact across several WPs in CRESCENDO: WP1-7. The aim of this workshop is to develop some ideas and collaborations that might help the involved projects and, more broadly the EU, improve the evaluation of European ESMs and thereby their overall performance fidelity.

Progress against specific milestones and deliverables

Milestone no.

Milestone name Expected Delivery date

Means of verification

Progress

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner

Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Progress

15.8 Monthly review of projetc progress, including status of deliverables and milestones (3)

UNIVLEEDS Report Public 30/04/2017 In preparation

The next reporting periodComments on work to be undertaken during this reporting period (please include notes on any dependencies on previous or upcoming work, and on other Work Packages):

The first Reporting period for CRESCENDO is ending on Month 18, hence the Periodic Report 1 will be submitted during the following 60 days (May-June 2017).

Any Dissemination/Exploitation/Communication activities planned for the next reporting period:

Dates and location of the General Assembly 2017 are now confirmed. This is to be held in Paris, France during the 26-28 Sept 2017, organised by Partner CNRS-IPSL. On the 25th Sept before the meeting starts the Project will deliver a Science Communication Training for young scientist (co-organised with members of WP13: Knowledge Dissemination).

Upcoming milestones/deliverables

Deliv. no.

Deliv. name Lead partner Type Diss. level

Expected Delivery Date

Comments

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