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Operational and Financial Results 1st Quarter of 2013 Conference Call / Webcast April 29 th , 2013
Transcript
Page 1: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

Operational and

Financial Results

1st Quarter of 2013

Conference Call / Webcast

April 29th, 2013

Page 2: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

2

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS:

DISCLAIMER

The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about future

events within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as

amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as

amended, that are not based on historical facts and are not assurances of

future results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect the

Company’s current views and estimates of future economic

circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial

results. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend",

"plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous

expressions, are used to identify such forward-looking statements.

Readers are cautioned that these statements are only projections and may

differ materially from actual future results or events. Readers are referred

to the documents filed by the Company with the SEC, specifically the

Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F, which identify

important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from those

contained in the forward-looking statements, including, among other

things, risks relating to general economic and business conditions,

including crude oil and other commodity prices, refining margins and

prevailing exchange rates, uncertainties inherent in making estimates of

our oil and gas reserves including recently discovered oil and gas

reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic and social

developments, receipt of governmental approvals and licenses and our

ability to obtain financing.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any

forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new

information or future events or for any other reason. Figures for

2013 on are estimates or targets.

All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their

entirety by this cautionary statement, and you should not place

reliance on any forward-looking statement contained in this

presentation.

NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS

We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gas

resources, that we are not permitted to present in documents filed

with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission

(SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because such

terms do not qualify as proved, probable or possible reserves

under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X.

DISCLAIMER

Page 3: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

3

Quarter Highlights Positive financial and operating results

Results » Net Income of R$ 7,693 million, Operating Income of R$ 9,849 million, and EBITDA of R$ 16,231 million.

» Net Debt/EBITDA of 2.32x as of 1Q13, below target of 2.5x.

Exploration

& Production

» Within expectations, oil production in Brazil was 1,910 kbpd (-4% vs. 4Q12).

» Domestic production of natural gas was 400 kboed (+1% vs. 4Q12).

» Pre-salt production in Santos and Campos Basins reached 311 mbpd on Apr 17th.(Petrobras portion: 256 kbpd).

» Production start-up of FPSOs:

» Cid. de São Paulo (120 kbpd) on Jan 5th. Petrobras Production (45%) Apr 25th: 11.3 kbpd with 1 well. Expected

peak: 1H14.

» Cid. de Itajaí (80 kbpd) on Feb 16th. Petrobras Production (100%) Apr 25th: 24.1 kbpd with 2 wells. Expected

peak: 2H13.

» Cid. de Paraty (120 kbpd) is currently being anchored at location. Expected peak: 2H14.

» Before year end, expected start-up of an additional 4 new platforms with a combined capacity of 500 kbpd.

» Contracting of two new leased FPSOs for delivery by 2016 in Lula field of the pre-salt Santos Basin.

» New Discoveries: Sul de Tupi and Florim in areas of the Transfer of Rights; Sagitário in the pre-salt Santos Basin

and Mandarim, in the post-salt Marlim Sul field of Campos Basin.

Downstream » Record daily output in Brazilian refineries on April 7th: 2.149 million barrels.

» In 1Q13, 2 price increases for diesel, totalling +10,7%, and 1 for gasoline, +6,6%.

Gas &

Energy

» Met all domestic demand for natural gas: 88 million m3/d.

» Power generation of 5,120 MW in our thermoelectric plants.

Management » PROCOP: Global results of Jan-Mar/13 higher than expected, resulting in savings of R$ 1.3 billion.

» PROEF: Gains of 34 kbpd in oil & LNG production in 1Q13. 3

Page 4: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

4

As anticipated, Petrobras’ oil and LNG production in 1Q13 was lower than 4Q12: down 4% to 1,910 kbpd.

The 2013 production target was maintained (stable relative to the 2012 average).

Petrobras: Oil & LNG Production in Brazil Scheduled maintenance in Campos Basin impacted quarterly production

» 4% lower production in 1Q13 vs. 4Q12 (- 70 kbpd), primarily due to:

» Scheduled Stoppages: -23 kbpd.

» End of Early Production Systems (SPAs) and EWTs (SS-11, P-34 and Oliva): -36 kbpd.

» Natural Decline of Production (10-11% p.y.) and operating problems: -11 kbpd.

» The target for the year is maintained. Production will grow sustainably as of July, due to the reduction of scheduled

maintenance and the ramp-up of new production units.

2.300

2.250

2.200

2.150

2.100

2.050

2.000

1.950

1.900

1.850

50

1.846

1.920

1.965

2.032

1.968 1.940

1.843

1.928 1.940 1.960

1.989 1.961

1.993

2.098 2.110

1Q12 Avg. 2,066

1Q13 Avg 1,910

kbpd 2013 2012

4Q12 Avg. 1,980

Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 Jul-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apr-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12

Page 5: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

5

PROEF UO-BC: Program to Increase Operational Efficiency Oil & NGL production in 1Q13: gain of 14 kbpd

Average 1Q13 Expected for 2013

» Since the start of PROEF on April/2012 the operational efficiency in UO-BC increased from 66% to 74% in March/2013.

» Lower PROEF benefit in the 1Q13 due to the higher concentration of scheduled stoppages, which will increase operational

efficiency in the future.

» PROEF UO-BC: Total expenditure by Feb/13 of US$ 1 billion. NPV of US$ 542 million.

395

431

+36 kbpd

With

PROEF

Without

PROEF

+7.4 p.p.

With

PROEF

76.4

Without

PROEF

69.0

Operational Efficiency (%) Oil + NGL Production

(kbpd)

+ 14 kbpd

With

PROEF Without

PROEF

+5.9 p.p.

75.7

With

PROEF

Without

PROEF

69.8 404

418

Operational Efficiency (%) Oil + NGL Production

(kbpd)

» Gain of 20 kbpd in 1Q13 with average efficiency of 91%.

» Expected gains from PROEF UO-RIO for 2013 is 26 kbpd.

PROEF UO-RIO

Page 6: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

6

Lifting Costs Lower production increased per barrel lifting costs in 1Q13

R$/

Bar

rel

» Total lifting costs were marginally lower, declining by 1% as compared to 4Q12.

» However, there was an increase in the per barrel lifting cost in 1Q13, due to lower oil production as a result of higher maintenance.

» The decrease in government take is due primarily to lower production in fields that pay Special Participation tax.

22.57 26.39 30.79 28.33 29.49

39.03 38.48

38.68 39.54 37.59

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13

Lifting Cost Government Take

69.47 64.87

61.60

67.87 67.08

Page 7: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

7

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

Exploration & Drilling Expenses: Brazil 18 wells write-offs in 1Q13: All post-salt

1Q13

1,237

4Q12

1,728

3Q12

1,116

2Q12

3,294

1Q12

921

4Q11

1,238

3Q11

603

2Q11

943

1Q11

859

R$

mill

ion

2011 R$ 3,643 MM

2012 R$ 7,058 MM

Geology, Geophysics and Dry /Subcommercial Wells

Exploration and drilling expenses in 1Q13 were lower than those in 4Q12.

97

Wells

16

Wells

41

Wells

21

Wells

19

Wells

81

Wells

1Q13 R$ 1,237 MM

18

Wells

18

Wells

2013

Reasons for Write-offs Exploratory Area

7 Dry Wells

6 Effectively Dry

1 Mechanical accident

8 Subcommercial wells

3 Projects Cancelled

4 Offshore

4 Post-salt

0 Pre-salt

11 Onshore

3 Projects Cancelled

1Q13

» Expected costs of dry wells and/or subcommercial for

2013 at a level below that of 2012.

Page 8: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

8

757 785 839

431 441 453

141 86 113

95 93 98

Oil Product Production

181

224

114

1,942 2,010

2,127

+6%

+10%

140

264

201

4Q12 1Q12 1Q13

197

288

140

Refining Costs Throughput and Utilization

6,60

6,98

6,24

Domestic Production of Oil Products Oil Processing Records: 2,149 kbpd (Apr. 7), 2,137 (Mar. 30) and 2,125 (Mar. 3)

1,534 1,633 1,722

350 337

360

93% 97% 98%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

4Q12 1Q12 1Q13 4Q12 1Q12 1Q13

(kbpd) (R$/barrel) (kbpd)

» 6% increase (117 kbpd) in production of oil products when compared to 4Q12, mainly diesel, due to increased utilization of

distillation capacity, coking and HDT units in REVAP and REPAR, and restart of distillation operations in REFAP.

» 11% decrease in Refining Costs due to lower expenses with scheduled maintenance and higher throughput.

Imported Oil Utilization (%) Domestic Oil Diesel Gasoline

Jet Fuel

LPG Naphtha

Fuel Oil Others

2,083 1,970

1,884

6.60 6.98

6.24

Page 9: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

9

Oil Products Sales in Brazil 7% year over year growth in sales

Oil Products Sales – Brazil

(*) Others – Lubricants, Asphalt, Coke, Propene, Solvent, Benzene, Querosene e Intermediates.

When compared to 4Q12, there was a reduction of 3% in oil products sales in the domestic market mainly due to the seasonality of

diesel and gasoline demand, partially offset by the increase in sales of naphtha and fuel oil.

864 986 921

545

610 580

106

106 105 75

108 118

1Q13

-3%

2,313

213

180

196

4Q12

2,391

223

156

202

1Q12

2,168

214

173

191

kbp

d

1Q13 x 4Q12

1Q13 x 1Q12

» Diesel (+7%): Economy growth and thermo consumption, as well as

increase in the summer grains crop (corn and soy).

» Gasoline (+6%): Increase in family consumption and car fleet growth, as

well as the advantage of gasoline price when compared to ethanol in most

states.

+7% » Diesel (-7%): Lower demand in the 1Q13 due to lower industrial and

agricultural activity in the period (seasonality). Part of the reduction was

compensated by higher thermoelectric demand.

» Gasoline (-5%): Decrease due to the seasonality of sales in the 4Q12

related to the vacation period.

Diesel Gasoline

Jet Fuelk

LPG Naphtha

Fuel Oil Others*

Page 10: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

10

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

2013

jan/

13

feb/

13

mar

/13

Oil Products Price - Brazil vs International Price adjustments in the last 10 months: +21.9% in diesel and +14.9% in gasoline

Jun/25 Jul/16

2011 2012

Mar/05 Adjustment :

Diesel: 5.0%

Jan/30

1Q13: 2 price increases in diesel, totaling +10.7%, and 1 in gasoline of +6.6%.

The Company seeks convergence to international parity.

∆ Fx Rate: 10%

FX Rate: R$ 1.82/US$

FX Rate: R$ 2.01/US$

ARP in Brazil* x ARP in USGC**

ARP in USGC

ARP in Brazil Adjustment:

Gasoline: 10%

Diesel: 2%

Nov/01

Adjustment:

Gasoline: 7.83%

Diesel: 3.94%

Adjustment:

Diesel: 6%

Adjustment:

Gasoline: 6.6%

Diesel: 5.4%

Pric

es (

R$/

bbl)

jul/1

2

jun/

12

may

/12

apr/

12

mar

/12

feb/

12

jan/

12

dec/

12

nov/

12

oct/1

2

sep/

12

aug/

/12

jul/1

1

Jun/

11

may

/11

apr/

11

mar

/11

feb/

11

jan/

11

dec/

11

nov/

11

oct/1

1

sep/

11

aug/

/11

* Weighted Average Realization Price of Diesel, Gasoline, Naphtha, LPG, Jet Fuel and Fuel Oil

** Average Realization Price in United States Gulf Coast, considering the same volumes and products sold in Brazil

Page 11: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

11

Exports Imports Balance

Higher net imports in 1Q13, mainly due to higher oil imports as a consequence of increasing refinery throughput and lower

domestic oil production.

kbpd

-189 -65

-364

-185

88 131 52

167 206

188

35 29 36

-269

-429

1Q12

-50

139

860

136

484

4Q12

+6%

+8%

+7%

1Q13

-454

806

168

301

764

151

358

1Q13

406

155

215

4Q12

377

112

236

1Q12

714

182

497

Oil Products Gasoline Diesel Other Oil Products Fuel Oil Oil

-43% +13%

+794%

Trade Balance of Oil and Oil Products Higher imports of crude oil and reduced imports of oil products

» Lower oil exports as a result of lower E&P production and increase of refinery throughput, requiring higher imports of lighter oil.

» Gasoline and diesel imports decreased, due to higher refinery output.

» Higher oil products exports, particularly fuel oil, due to lower thermoelectric demand during 1Q13.

1Q13 4Q12 1Q12

Page 12: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

12

39,9

Natural Gas Demand and Supply Continued high demand for thermal power generation

mill

ion

m³/

day

Domestic

Bolivia

LNG

Non Thermal

Thermal

Refineries / E&P

Fertilizer plants

SUPPLY DEMAND

12.1 12.5 10.8

40.2

37.0

4Q12

89.4

38.6

38.3

1Q12

63.1

11.7

39.3

-1%

1Q13

88.0

+39%

0.9 15.9 14.1

-2%

88.1

30.7

25.5

63.5 43.3 43.6

90.2

30.7 37.1

+39%

» Thermo-electric demand remained high and above non thermo-electric consumption throughout 1Q13, due to higher thermo-

electric dispatch caused by low levels of water in hydroelectric reservoirs.

» Lower demand for LNG in 1Q13 as compared to 4Q12, as non thermo-electric demand and domestic consumption were

reduced.

» Thermo-electric generation remained above 5 GW.

4Q12 1Q12 1Q13

Page 13: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

Planned Accomplished as planned or higher

High risk of not achieving the annual target

Attention points that can put the achievement of the annual target at risk

PROCOP: Monitoring of Outcomes– Mar/13 Accomplishment higher than expected. Attention points addressed

90%

70%

100%

80%

Op

erat

ion

al E

xecu

tio

n (

%)

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

2013 Target: R$ 3.8 billion

Jan-Mar/13

Cost Savings Expected : R$ 646 million (17%)

Cost Savings Accomplished: R$ 1,260 million (33%)

100%

Exploration & Production Downstream

Engineering,

Technology

& Materials

Corporate

& Services

Transpetro

Gas & Energy

Onshore

Production Administration

and Support Building Mngt,

Travels and

Lodging

Offshore

Production

Support

Services

Wells

Intervention

Refining Oil and Oil Products

Logistics

Commercialization

Supplies

and Stocks

ITC HSE

Mngt NG Logistics

Fertilizers

13

Page 14: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

14

Operating Income – 4Q12 vs 1Q13 Better prices and lower COGS

R$

Mill

ion

5,739 (870)

3,164 210

1,606 9,849

4Q12Operating Income

Sales Revenues COGS SG&A Other Expenses 1Q13Opearting Income

» Reduction in sales revenues, mainly due to lower volumes of oil products sold in the domestic market.

» The decrease in COGS is explained by the lower participation of imported oil products in the sales mix, as a

result of a higher operational output/efficiency from refineries, and reduced consumption of oil products.

» Lower expenses due to lower dry hole expense, and the absence of impairments during the quarter.

Page 15: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

15

Net Income – 4Q12 vs 1Q13 Stable as compared to prior quarter

R$

Mill

ion

7,747

4,110

(1,398) (26)

( 2,618) (122)

7,693

4Q12Net Income

Operating Income Financial Result Equity in earningsof investments

Income Tax/SocialContribution

Minority Interest 1Q13Net Income

» Net Income remained stable, because the increase in the operating income was compensated

by lower financial result and by higher income tax in the absence of the fiscal benefits

generated from the provision of interest on own capital (R$ 2.1 Billion in 4Q12)

Page 16: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

16

Exploration & Production - 4Q12 vs 1Q13 As expected, lower production in the quarter

R$

Mill

ion

17,474

(277)

(2,976) (1,146)

1,388 621 15,084

4Q12Operational Results

Price Effect onRevenue

Volume Effect onRevenue

Average Cost Effecton COGS

Volume Effect onCOGS

OperatingExpenses

1Q13Operational Results

» E&P operating income was negatively impacted by the lower production of oil in Brazil (-4%).

» Realization price for oil sold was slightly lower.

» The decrease in operating expenses was mainly due to reduction in dry hole expense.

Page 17: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

17

Downstream – 4Q12 vs 1Q13 Higher oil products prices

R$

mill

ion

(8,715)

1,651

(-2,440) (81)

3,378

(330) (6,537)

4Q12Operating Income

Price Effect onRevenues

Volume Effect onRevenues

Average CostsEffect on COGS

Volume Effect onCOGS

OperatingExpenditures

1Q13Operating Income

» Downstream improvement was due to price increases in diesel and gasoline as well as lower

participation of imported oil products in the sales mix, as a result of higher refinery output and

decreased seasonal demand.

Page 18: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

18

Exploration and Production

Net Result by Segment: 4Q12 vs 1Q13

R$ 11.5 Bn vs R$ 10.0 Bn

Downstream R$ -5.7 Bn vs R$ -4.2 Bn

price increase of diesel and gasoline

lower share of imported oil products in sales due to lower

demand of domestic market

higher oil products production with maintenance of output

yeld (diesel and gasoline)

International R$ -0.6 Bn vs R$ 0.7 Bn

higher sales volume, mainly of oil products (from 182 to

195 kbpd), and higher oil and NGL production (from 133

to 143 kbpd)

impairment of R$ 487 million in 4Q12, of which R$ 464

million related to Pasadena refinery in USA.

dry well write-off of Ogonga (Block 26 Angola), Kabeljou

(Namibia), Mapalé e Katmandu (Colombia), adding

R$ 243 million in 4Q12. Only small amounts were written-

off in 1Q13 (R$ 3 million).

lower accounting losses of inventory write-down,

especially in USA (R$ 52 million in 1Q13 versus R$ 231

million in 4Q12).

decrease of oil and NGL production in Brazil

lower dry or subcommercial wells write-offs

lower total lifting cost

Gas & Energy R$ 0.5 Bn vs R$ 0.9 Bn

higher power generation revenues due to energy prices

(PLD)

flat volume supply of domestic gas

larger acquisition price of LNG in international market,

despite lower demand volume

Page 19: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

19

Investments Tracking physical and financial progress of projects – S Curves

Investments of R$ 19.8 billion in 1Q13, 10% higher than that of 1Q12. R

$ B

illio

n

Investments: 1Q12 x 1Q13 Investments 1Q13 by segment

Physical and financial tracking for each of 160 projects (S Curve):

Average physical accomplishment of 98.9% and 97.8% for financial progress

18.0 19.8

1Q13 1Q12

+10%

54%

R$ 10,7 bi 35%

R$ 6,9 bi

1% 1%

0%

35%54%

5% 4%

Biofuel

Distribution

G&E

E&P

Corporate

International

Downstream

Page 20: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

20

1) Net Debt / (Net Debt + Shareholder’s Equity)

2) Refers to the adjusted EBITDA which excludes equity income and impairment

3) Includes tradable securities maturing in more than 90 days

Capital Structure Net debt remained stable

R$ Billion 03/31/13 12/31/12

Short-term Debt 14.6 15.3

Long-term Debt 182.4 181.0

Total Debt 196.9 196.3

(-) Cash and Cash Equivalents 3 46.3 48.5

= Net Debt 150.7 147.8

US$ Billion

Net Debt 74.8 72.3

1,66 1,61

2,46 2,422,77

2,32

24% 24%28% 28%

31% 31%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13

Net Debt/EBITDA Net Debt/Net Capitalization1

2

2

» The ratio of Net Debt/Ebitda declined to 2.32X, as a

result of higher cash generation and limited increase

in net debt during 1Q13.

Page 21: Webcast about 1st Quarter of 2013

Operational and

Financial Results

Information:

Investor Relations

+55 21 3224-1510

[email protected]


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