Cement and Clinker Price
Markers: Med Basin, Persian
Gulf-Arabian Sea and East
Africa
2Q2020 Global Cement Trade
Price Report
Webinar presentation
CW Group LLC | T: +1-702-866-9474 | F: +1-928-832-4762 | Connecticut, USA
June 18, 2020
Presenters
2
Carolina PereiraManager, Research &
Advisory
M:+351 917 314 391
▪ Responsible for the qualitative and quantitative analysis for CW
Research's price and volume assessments in the building
material and heavy industrial sectors. Leads the Porto office
▪ Degree in Management from Coimbra Business School, Portugal
Juliana VieiraBusiness Analyst
M:+351 918 285 753
▪ Executes quantitative analysis for CW Research's price and
volume assessments in the building material and heavy industrial
sectors. Experience in Cement industry.
▪ Degree in International Relations from ESPM, Rio de Janeiro,
Brazil
Agenda
▪ Introduction to CW Group
▪ GCTPR 2Q2020 highlights
− GCTPR overview and methodology
− Context snapshot: Worldwide cement demand
− gray cement exports: pricing trend and outlook
− Ex-works pricing
− Closing remarks
3
4
About the CW Group
CEMENT, BUILDING
MATERIALS &
CONSTRUCTION
STEEL, METALS &
MINING
CHEMICALS DRY BULK CARGO,
PORTS AND
INFRASTRUCTURE
POWER, ENERGY
AND SOLID FUELS
Seasoned expertsBusiness &
technicalNetwork & access Proprietary data
STRATEGY AND M&A
ADVISORYBUSINESS DECISION
SUPPORTMEDIA & MEETINGS
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industry study reports
Reference forecasts
Data and chart-books
Commodity price
assessments
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Publications
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Advisory Research Media
Client Confidential Information
5
GCTPR: 2Q2020 update highlights
What does it include
6
▪ Quarterly reports (annual subscription) with qualitative
analysis on volumes, prices and trends in global markets
▪ Benchmark report that provides detailed insights on:
– gray cement, white cement, clinker and granulated slag prices
(US$/ton)
– Import and export prices and outlook
– Regional price indices
– Monthly trade volumes (tonnages)
– Ex-works and retail level pricing (US$/ton)
▪ Market information for key markets around the world
– 70+ countries covered for trading data
– Monthly prices provided at country, regional and global level
▪ Quarterly updates (annual subscription)
- statistical model updated every 2Q and 4Q of the report
- data in Excel (optional)
For a complete listing of focus countries as well as more details visit:
http://www.cwgrp.com/research/research-products/industries/cement-building-
materials/product/1-global-cement-trade-price-report
GCTPR: Country coverage
7
Trade, ex-works, retail
Trade, ex-works
Trade, retail
Trade
Ex-works, retail
Ex-works
Retail
Client Confidential Information
8
Macroeconomic overview
-6.1%
-9.1%
-6.1%
0.5%
-4.7%
-7.2%
-4.2%-2.7% -2.8%
-5.2%
4.0% 4.5%2.5%
6.6%
3.6% 2.8% 2.3% 2.8% 3.1%4.2%
US EU Area Japan East Asia &Pacific
EU &Central
Asia
LATAM &Caribbean
MENA S Asia SSA World
2020F 2021F
Source: World Bank, CW Research
The economic outlook is as grim as grim gets
Global Economic Outlook 2020 (% GDP)
▪ In the latest World Bank global economic update earlier this month, the World Bank estimates that
its baseline scenario is of a global 5.2 percent contraction
▪ Only China, the world’s second largest economy is expected to show growth of just 1.0 percent
Client Confidential Information
10
GCTPR: Domestic prices
With the continuing fallout of COVID-19, ex-works prices are expected
to decline in almost all regions in the second quarter of the year
11
Cement ex-works price variation 2Q2020 v. 1Q2020 (QoQ change, USD/t price)
-2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0%
North and Central America
Mediterranean Basin
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East
E Europe and CIS
Asia Pacific + China
South Asia
South America
Western Europe
12
+15%
YoY % change
in USD/t
-15%
Ex-works prices marked by wide regional variation in the first quarter
of 2020
Cement ex-works price variation 1Q2020 and 1Q2019 (YoY change, USD/t price)
Slowdown of Brazilian
construction sector
Favorable weather
conditions in US
Deacceleration
of Costa Rica
construction
works
Algerian
oversupply
added to lower
demand due to
COVID-19
Russian collapse of oil prices due to
a price war with Saudi Arabia
UK slow reopening of
construction sites
Delay in Indian
construction
activity
Indonesia’s
reduction in
production cost
Client Confidential Information
13
GCTPR: Trade pricing
Despite Brazil emerging as COVID-19 hotspot, the cement sector
has remained largely unscathed so far
14
Cement demand in selected markets (% YTD growth)
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Saudi Arabia
Poland
Mexico
Brazil
Japan
Indonesia
Morocco
Spain
Argentina
Peru
Mar April May
Turkey0.4
Ireland0.2
Spain0.1
South Africa0.1
White
Turkey4.6
Thailand2.4
Japan1.3
Vietnam1.2
Clinker
In 1Q2020, the regions that reported the biggest export volumes
were Asia-Pacific and Mediterranean Basin
15
Largest traders by volume (mn tons - % represents share of global volume traded during quarter)
Represents
36%
Represents
55%
Represents
59%
Represents
69%
Turkey3.0
Japan1.5
Thailand1.0
China1.0
Grey
Japan3.0
India0.7
Germany0.5
Malaysia0.4
Slag
▪ gray cement prices are
expected to increase
0.3 percent when
compared to 1Q2020
16
▪ Clinker prices are
expected to increase 1
percent when
compared to 1Q2020
Despite COVID-19, cement and clinker prices have exhibited relative
stability over the last few months
Global clinker cement price index (USD/ ton)
Global gray cement price index (USD/ ton)
0
1,0 00
2,0 00
3,0 00
4,0 00
5,0 00
6,0 00
7,0 00
Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20
20 .0
25 .0
30 .0
35 .0
40 .0
45 .0
50 .0
55 .0
60 .0
65 .0Volume Average Price
0.0
10 .0
20 .0
30 .0
40 .0
50 .0
0
1,0 00
2,0 00
3,0 00
4,0 00
5,0 00
6,0 00
7,0 00
Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20
Volume Average Price
At a global level, the second quarter 2020 despite some variation in
FOB prices remains relative stable
17
Middle East
Regional gray cement FOB price change (QoQ percent change – 3Q2020 vs 2Q2020)
1%
2%
North America
& Caribbean
1%
Eastern Europe
& CIS
0%Mediterranean
Basin
0%
Scandinavia &
Baltics
1%Asia Pacific
Japan
-1%
Western Europe
-2%
Sub Saharan
Africa
0%
South
America
0%
China
GCTPR 2Q2020 update: Closing remarks
▪ Turkey remained the largest exporter of gray and white
cement and clinker while Japan takes the lead for slag
▪ In the 2Q2020, on a yearly basis, ex-works prices
showed wide regional variations, when looking at the
price decline in Eastern Europe & CIS and increase in
North America
▪ Despite COVID-19, cement and clinker prices have
exhibited relative stability over the last few months
▪ Gray cement FOB prices are expected to see small
variations across regions until the 3Q2020
18
About CW ResearchCW Research is a leader in syndicated and data-driven market research solutions. The company offers independent
perspectives on multiple industrial market segments(e.g., cement, metals & minerals, and specialty chemicals) and
deep functional expertise in market intelligence, sourcing intelligence, commodity pricing intelligence.
CW Research also provides custom industry and competitive research programs for operating companies, financial
analysts, consultants, governments, suppliers and many others as well as tailored studies together with CW Advisory.
For more information: research.cwgrp.com.
Contacts
CW Group LLCPO Box 5263, Greenwich,
CT 06831 USA
T: +1-702-866-9474
F: +1-928-832-4762
www.cwgrp.com
Carolina Pereira
Manager, Advisory &
Research
Juliana Vieira
Business Analyst
Liviu Dinu
Market Services &
Marketing Consultant