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Strategic Roadmapping take control in times of uncertainty
Dr Rob Phaal & Dr Imoh Ilevbare Institute for ManufacturingUniversity of Cambridge19 April 2016
IfM Education and Consultancy Services Short Webinar Series
Who we are
Energy, Fluid Mechanics &
Turbomachinery
Electrical Engineering
Mechanics, Materials & Design
Civil Engineering
Manufacturing & Management
Information Engineering
Institute for Manufacturing
What we do
Technology and Innovation Management Theory and Practice since 1993
• Technology and innovation management processes & systems
• ‘Fast-start’ workshop methods
• Visual methods
• Tools and toolkits
Clive Kerr
The nature of strategy
Complex, Ambiguous, UncertainInformation quality and situational awareness
“Predictions are hard, especially about the future” - anon
Past Short-term Medium-term Long-term Vision
Time
Market
Business
Product
Service
System
Technology
Science
Resources
Functional perspectives(Roadmap
architecture)
Route(s) forward
KnowledgetypesWhen?
What?
How?
Push
Pull
Information types
DriversStrategy
Needs
FormFunction
Performance
SolutionsCapabilitiesResources
Why?
Roadmap framework(Supports integrated and aligned strategic and innovation planning)
Key questions: 2) Where are we now?
3) How can we get there?
1) Where do we want to go?
Typical viewpoints
Commercial & strategic
perspectives
Design, development & production perspectives
Technology & research
perspectives
Roadmapping framework provides an integrative information architecture for strategy & innovation
General roadmap form
2) Where are we now?
?
?
?
3) How can we get there?
? c) How can we do it?
? b) What should we do?
? a) Why do we need to act?
(When?)
?
?
?
1) Where do we want to go?
Time
Roadmapping supports strategic dialogue
An agile / lean ‘fast-start’ approach is efficient and low risk, providing strong diagnostic functionality… ‘dirty mirror’ – senior Philips manager c. 2008
Example roadmap
Page 38
Kazakhstan upstream oil & gas technology and R&D roadmap, May 2013
Intelligence system modesKerr et al, 2006
Strategy Intelligence
The quality of strategy depends on the quality of information & knowledge
InnovationSystem Structure (taxonomy) Scaleable (hierarchy)
Portfolio
Scenarios
STEEPI(Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental,Political, InfrastructuralTrends & Drivers)
Linkinggrids
SWOT (Strengths,Weaknesses,Opportunities,Threats)
Roadmaps enable integrated toolkits
Porter’s Five Forces
ForesightTechnology Intelligence
tMarket
Business
ProductServiceSystem
TechnologyResources
Valuation /Balanced scorecard
Mitchell et al., 2014
Treatment of uncertainty in portfolio selection
Strategy under Uncertainty
?
Courtney et al., 1997
Level 4: True ambiguity
Level 3: A range of futures
Level 2: Alternate futures
Level 1: A clear-enough future
Example tools
ForecastingRoadmapping
Real optionsRoadmapping
ScenariosRoadmapping
System dynamicsRoadmapping
Example situation
2019?
2018?
Article 50March 2017
“Brexit means Brexit”June 2016
Scenarios
Scenarios can be very helpful in providing structure to an uncertain/ambiguous future
• Can reduce a range of futures to a set of plausible alternatives
• Ease decision making in high uncertainty
Shell style (RSSB, 2009) (also see Shwartz, (1991))
Complex/highly uncertain outlook resulting from a combination of multiple, difficult-to-predict trends/drivers, e.g.
Automation
Digitalisation
Re-shoring
Skills
New technologies, etc.
Scenarios
Shell style (RSSB, 2009) (also see Shwartz, (1991))
A more structured view of the future
Two sequential toolkit configurations:1) Scenario-led roadmapping
Scenario A Scenario B
Scenario C Scenario D
Roadmap A
Roadmap B
Roadmap D
Roadmap C
Synthesised central roadmap,
pathways and decisions
Baseline roadmap
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Scenario D
Test baseline roadmap against scenarios
Test baseline roadmap against scenarios
Modified (& more robust)
roadmap
Two sequential toolkit configurations:2) Roadmapping-led scenarios
Key matters in using scenarios within roadmapping
To build-in flexibility and robustness in decision making (e.g. by applying options thinking)
• Identifying the commonalities
• Identifying the significant differences
• Choosing which of the commonalities and strategic options / investments to focus on
• Understanding what signals and triggers to look out for
Risk-aware roadmapping
Ilevbare, 2013
Issues influencing how you address risk (and uncertainty) in the context of roadmapping
Perceptions;Biases;Group dynamics
Key principles
• Human-centric
• Workshop-based
• Neutrally facilitated
• Lightly processed
• Scalable
• Visual
In conclusion… An ‘agile / lean’ toolkit approach
suitable for uncertain times
Kerr et al., 2013www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/roadmapping
Workshop template for early stage technology innovation strategy, incorporating future value scenario, demonstration and options thinking
Q&A