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WECC System Schedulers MeetingLas Vegas, Nevada, May 10 – 11 , 2010
NW Hydro OperationsFrancis Halpin – Bonneville Power Administration
Hydrology 101Hydrology 101
Climatological zones Climatological zones range from high range from high deserts to mountain deserts to mountain rangesranges
Elevation ranges from Elevation ranges from 300ft to over 300ft to over 10,000ft10,000ft
Impacted by Pacific Impacted by Pacific Ocean as well as Ocean as well as continental continental influencesinfluences
Adiabatic LiftAdiabatic Lift
The Columbia The Columbia River BasinRiver Basin
Hydrology 101Hydrology 101HydrographsHydrographs
A hydrograph is a representation of flow for a particular stream and is used to evaluate the watershed runoff volumes and the peak flow rates from a single storm or set of storms. This information is then used in the design of flood control facilities. Watershed runoff is a function of several things, including: • rainfall intensity • storm duration • type of vegetation in the watershed area • size and shape of the watershed
Hydrology 101Hydrology 101HydrographsHydrographs
Unit Hydrograph
The unit hydrograph depicts the response of the watershed from a unit (typically 1 inch) of excess rainfall uniformly distributed over the watershed at a uniform rate during a given period of time
Unit hydrograph can be used to predict the response of the watershed for any given rainfall distribution.
Unit hydrograph can be used to predict flood peaks within 25% of observed values (i.e. sufficient for planning)
Hydrology 101Hydrology 101HydrographsHydrographs
Hydrology 101Hydrology 101HydrographsHydrographs
Storm or Flood Hydrograph
Based on actual rainfall distribution and actual streamflow response
Plots actual runoff from a particular storm
Can be used to fine tune unit hydrograph.
Hydrology 101Hydrology 101Storm or Flood HydrographStorm or Flood Hydrograph
Hydrology 101Hydrology 101Storm or Flood HydrographStorm or Flood Hydrograph
Hydrology 101Hydrology 101
ANNUAL HYDROGRAPH
•Annual streamflow hydrograph is a plot of streamflow versus time over a year or more
•Annual hydrographs show the long-term balance of precipitation, evaporation, and streamflow in awatershed
•In addition, annual hydrographs depict the temporal variability of streamflow
Hydrology 101Hydrology 101Annual HydrographAnnual Hydrograph
Annual Hydrograph
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361
Time ------>
Flo
w (
cfs)
Hydrology 101Hydrology 101Annual Hydrograph – Multi YearAnnual Hydrograph – Multi Year
Hydrology 101Hydrology 101
SUMMARY HYDROGRAPH
Summary hydrographs are a family of graphs which show, for each day of the calendar year, the maximum, minimum, various percentiles, etc. for the basin of interest over some period of record.
Any point can come from any of the years of record.
Easier to read than 50 traces of 50 different water years.
HydrologyHydrologyNatural versus Actual flow hydrographsNatural versus Actual flow hydrographs
Natural Flow – The flow which the basin would experience IF there were no dams.
Actual or Regulated Flow – the flow actually observed in the basin.
In a watershed with storage dams there is opportunity to store water from year to year or to release water stored from prior years. The change in storage is the major difference between natural flow and regulated flow.
HydrologyHydrologySummary Hydrograph – Willamette RiverSummary Hydrograph – Willamette River
HydrologyHydrologySummary Hydrograph – Snake RiverSummary Hydrograph – Snake River
HydrologyHydrologySummary Hydrograph – Columbia RiverSummary Hydrograph – Columbia River
HydrologyHydrologyColumbia River BasinColumbia River Basin
61%
27%12%
Where does the watercome from?
(as a percent of the annual runoff at The
Dalles)
0
20
40
60
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100
120
140
Run
off/S
tora
ge (m
af)
Missouri Colorado Columbia
Runoff to Storage Comparison
Annual Runoff (maf) Storage (maf)
Water Year Runoff (Oct-Sep) at The Dalles1929-2006*
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1929
1931
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1935
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Oct
ober
- Se
ptem
ber R
unof
f (m
af)
Average = 135 maf (1929-1999)*2006 value is based on the NWRFC
February Final water supply forecast
105%
Columbia River Annual Runoff VariabilityColumbia River Annual Runoff Variability
Columbia River Annual Runoff VariabilityColumbia River Annual Runoff Variability
Adjusted Flow for 1929-2001Observed Flow for 1879-1928
40.050.060.070.080.090.0
100.0110.0120.0130.0140.0150.0160.0170.0180.0190.0
Yearly Jan-Jul Volume Runoff
5 yr Moving Average
119 Years of Actual January-July Volume Runoff at The Dalles for 1879 through 2001
1879
1884
1889
1894
1899
1904
1909
1914
1919
1924
1929
1934
1939
1944
1949
1954
1959
1964
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
OK We have all this water – what OK We have all this water – what are we going to do with it all?are we going to do with it all?
Lets Build some dams.Lets Build some dams.
Rock Island Dam – 1932 Rock Island Dam – 1932
1930’s – 11930’s – 1stst of two federal dam building eras. of two federal dam building eras.
Bonneville – 1938, Grand Coulee – 1941Bonneville – 1938, Grand Coulee – 1941
Vanport Flood – 1948Vanport Flood – 1948Need more StorageNeed more Storage
OK We have all this water – what OK We have all this water – what are we going to do with it all?are we going to do with it all?
Lets Build some dams.Lets Build some dams.Vanport Flood - 1948Vanport Flood - 1948
1950’s and 1960’s – 2nd of two federal dam 1950’s and 1960’s – 2nd of two federal dam building eras.building eras.
Canadian TreatyCanadian Treaty
Large Storage ProjectsLarge Storage Projects
California IntertieCalifornia Intertie
4,000ft
3,500ft
3,000ft
2,500ft
2,000ft
1,500ft
1,000ft
500ft
Sea Level
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200Miles from River Mouth
Spok
ane
Riv
er
McNaryWanapum
Wells
Chief Joseph
Grand CouleeArrow Lakes
MicaLibby
Duncan Lake
Hungry Horse
Kerr
Thompson Falls
Noxon RapidsCabinet Gorge
Albeni Falls Box Canyon
So. F
ork
Fla
thea
d R
iver
Coeur d’Alene Lake
Oxbow
Brownlee
Chelan
Feet
abo
ve S
ea L
evel
Flath
ead
River
OCEAN
Columbi
a Rive
r
Ice Harbor
Snak
e R
iver
Rock Island
The Dalles
Rocky Reach
Priest Rapids
John DayBonneville
Pen
d O
riel
le
R
iver
Koo
tena
y R
iver
Cla
rk F
ork
River
Treaty Project
Dam in Canada
Base System Federal Project
Base System Non-Federal Project
NOTE: FOR ILLUSTRATIVE
PURPOSES; NOT ALL PROJECTS
ARE SHOWN
PNW Hydro Characteristics Common fuel supply, affected by non-power constraints Hydro operations have consequence,either immediately or in the future Hydro is used for regulation and load-following while thermal tends to be base loaded
United States – Canada Treaty and Columbia River Base System Projects
Kootenay Lake
The Need for Coordination in the PNWThe Need for Coordination in the PNW
Agreements Agreements
Columbia River TreatyColumbia River Treaty Yearly / Monthly regulationYearly / Monthly regulation
Pacific Northwest Coordination Agreement (PNCA)Pacific Northwest Coordination Agreement (PNCA) Yearly / Monthly regulationYearly / Monthly regulation
Mid Columbia Hourly Coordination Agreement (MCHC)Mid Columbia Hourly Coordination Agreement (MCHC) Daily / Hourly regulation Daily / Hourly regulation
Northwest Power Pool (NWPP)Northwest Power Pool (NWPP) Reserve Sharing Program Reserve Sharing Program Hourly / within-hourHourly / within-hour
The Need for Coordination in the PNWThe Need for Coordination in the PNW
Agreements Agreements One utility principleOne utility principle – determine the optimum power operation – determine the optimum power operation
within the bounds of non-power constraints as if operated by a within the bounds of non-power constraints as if operated by a single entity; a MW is a MW regardless of location.single entity; a MW is a MW regardless of location.
Power optimized on a Power optimized on a monthly basismonthly basis by directing the amount and by directing the amount and timing of storage releases at specific reservoirs.timing of storage releases at specific reservoirs.
Coordination will be safe for all parties Coordination will be safe for all parties Recognize Recognize autonomyautonomy of owners to operate their resources for their of owners to operate their resources for their
own needs while providing certainty to other coordinated parties own needs while providing certainty to other coordinated parties (using obligations for energy exchanges based on theoretical (using obligations for energy exchanges based on theoretical optimum hydro operation).optimum hydro operation).
Since power benefits are independent of location, Since power benefits are independent of location, requirement for requirement for sufficient transmission capacitysufficient transmission capacity to make coordination work. to make coordination work.
The Need for Coordination in the PNWThe Need for Coordination in the PNW
Pacific Northwest Coordination AgreementPacific Northwest Coordination Agreement Methods of making Parties wholeMethods of making Parties whole
In LieuIn LieuProvisional DraftProvisional DraftStorageStorageInterchangeInterchange
Mid Columbia Hourly CoordinationMid Columbia Hourly Coordination BPABPA Grand Coulee (BoR) and Chief Joe (Corps)Grand Coulee (BoR) and Chief Joe (Corps) Wells (DOPUD)Wells (DOPUD) Rocky Reach and Rock Island (CHPUD)Rocky Reach and Rock Island (CHPUD) Wanapum and Priest Rapids (GCPUD)Wanapum and Priest Rapids (GCPUD) Many other utilities both public and private are also membersMany other utilities both public and private are also members
Northwest Power PoolNorthwest Power Pool Operating CommitteeOperating Committee Reserve Sharing GroupReserve Sharing Group
19 Balancing Authorities – Canada, PNW and California19 Balancing Authorities – Canada, PNW and California
Coordinating with Federal PartnersCoordinating with Federal Partners
Corps of EngineersCorps of Engineers Willamette River PlantsWillamette River Plants Headwater ProjectsHeadwater Projects OutagesOutages Special OperationsSpecial Operations
Bureau of ReclamationBureau of Reclamation OutagesOutages Special OperationsSpecial Operations Pumping Operations and Banks LakePumping Operations and Banks Lake
Coordinating with Other PartiesCoordinating with Other Parties
Fishery OperationsFishery Operations
Technical Management Team (TMT)Technical Management Team (TMT)Weekly OperationsWeekly OperationsSpecial OperationsSpecial OperationsHatchery release timing and required spillHatchery release timing and required spillSeasonal use of available waterSeasonal use of available waterUse of storage space versus flood controlUse of storage space versus flood control
Conflicting constraintsConflicting constraintsFlood Control below the fish VECC results in a flat Flood Control below the fish VECC results in a flat operation with no ability to draft below FC.operation with no ability to draft below FC.
Putting the Daily Plan TogetherPutting the Daily Plan Together
Headwater Projects (storage)Headwater Projects (storage)
Libby, Dworshak, Hungry HorseLibby, Dworshak, Hungry Horse
Planned weeks to months aheadPlanned weeks to months ahead
Drafting to FC – Refill rateDrafting to FC – Refill rate
End of month target elevationEnd of month target elevation
Actual Schedules depend on inflowActual Schedules depend on inflow
Willamette ProjectsWillamette Projects
Flows determined by CorpsFlows determined by Corps
Some shaping on the Storage project is Some shaping on the Storage project is available available as as long as the Re-Reg keeps enough flow to run at long as the Re-Reg keeps enough flow to run at the the required flow.required flow.
Putting the Daily Plan TogetherPutting the Daily Plan Together
The Big TenThe Big TenMid ColumbiaMid Columbia
Grand Coulee Grand Coulee
Chief JosephChief Joseph
Lower SnakeLower SnakeLower GraniteLower Granite • Little Goose• Little Goose
Lower MonumentalLower Monumental • Ice Harbor• Ice Harbor
Lower ColumbiaLower ColumbiaMcNaryMcNary • John Day • John Day
The DallesThe Dalles • Bonneville • Bonneville
Scheduling the “Big 10”Scheduling the “Big 10”
BPA has optionality on the scheduling of BPA has optionality on the scheduling of these “Big Ten” projects.these “Big Ten” projects.
The majority of load following and The majority of load following and “dispatchable” reserves are carried on “dispatchable” reserves are carried on these 10 projects. these 10 projects.
These are the focus of BPA’s hydro These are the focus of BPA’s hydro generation scheduling group.generation scheduling group.
Scheduling the “Big 10”Scheduling the “Big 10”
The optionality is bounded by physical The optionality is bounded by physical limitations and constraints at the projects limitations and constraints at the projects and by mandated hydraulic objectives like and by mandated hydraulic objectives like flood control and fishery requirements.flood control and fishery requirements.
Much of the year the constraints and Much of the year the constraints and hydraulic requirements are so prescriptive hydraulic requirements are so prescriptive that we have little optionality or flexibility.that we have little optionality or flexibility.
Scheduling the “Big 10”Scheduling the “Big 10”Planning and modeling is done days to weeks in Planning and modeling is done days to weeks in advance in order to plan for marketing necessary to advance in order to plan for marketing necessary to adjust load to meet hydraulic objectives.adjust load to meet hydraulic objectives.On the preschedule day, generation “schedules” are On the preschedule day, generation “schedules” are produced by the models. They are sent to the TOP for produced by the models. They are sent to the TOP for planning purposes.planning purposes.The actual scheduling of the Big 10 generation does not The actual scheduling of the Big 10 generation does not really occur until hour ahead; just prior to the WECC really occur until hour ahead; just prior to the WECC interchange ramp.interchange ramp.We have over 2,000 MW of contractual uncertainty up We have over 2,000 MW of contractual uncertainty up until XX:30 each hour and normal load uncertainty until XX:30 each hour and normal load uncertainty beyond that.beyond that.
And once we get into the hour there is wind ! And once we get into the hour there is wind !
Scheduling the “Big 10”Scheduling the “Big 10”
Meeting load obligations requires not only Meeting load obligations requires not only capacity but having the fuel in the right place at capacity but having the fuel in the right place at the right time. Complex task.the right time. Complex task. Load variability (Peaking contracts, SLICE, BPA Load variability (Peaking contracts, SLICE, BPA
marketing)marketing)Final Load is not know until XX:40 (or later)Final Load is not know until XX:40 (or later)Lag Times do not always verifyLag Times do not always verify
No water = no generation (limited to inflow only)No water = no generation (limited to inflow only)
Unplanned outagesUnplanned outagesWind – BPA has over 2,700 MW’s of wind in BAWind – BPA has over 2,700 MW’s of wind in BA
Within hour disruption of scheduled gen = disruption of future Within hour disruption of scheduled gen = disruption of future hour fuel supply downstream hour fuel supply downstream
Persistent Imbalance disrupts operation over longer periods.Persistent Imbalance disrupts operation over longer periods.
Germany Denmark
Wind Ramping Event April 27, 2010
Dispatcher Standing Order 216
Public Rate Setting Process on Wind Balancing RateR.O.D. set rate based on meeting 99.5% of eventsbased on statistical study and methodology.
In order to assure ramping events are covered, BPA holds835 MW of INC (upward) reserves1035 MW of DEC (downward) reserves
Wind fleet pays for the service through the rate.
When extreme events cause the wind balancing reserves to be depleted DSO 216 measures are enacted.
Plants are sent signals to feather or otherwise reduce generation to schedule OR to curtail e-tags depending.
Scheduling Hydro Under UncertaintyScheduling Hydro Under Uncertainty ~3,500 MW of contractual and wind uncertainty, differing project
constraints - characteristics - lag times - reservoir factors - H/K - TW limits, etc. make managing the fuel supply a complex problem.
The Current Water YearThe Current Water Year
The Current Water YearThe Current Water Year
Chronologic Volume (Jan-Jul in MAF)
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The Current Water YearThe Current Water Year
Jan-Jul Vol (MAF)
0
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180
The Current Water YearThe Current Water Year
Jan-July Volume (MAF)
0102030405060708090
100110120130140150160
The Current Water YearThe Current Water Year
Low Water Low Water One of the lowest on Record (Apr EB 68.8)One of the lowest on Record (Apr EB 68.8) Shape of runoff could make things worseShape of runoff could make things worse
Biop has provisions for Low WaterBiop has provisions for Low Water Very prescriptiveVery prescriptive If not enough for Biop Spill we must do If not enough for Biop Spill we must do
minimum generation and spill the remainderminimum generation and spill the remainder No Flexibility on Snake and Lower ColumbiaNo Flexibility on Snake and Lower Columbia
78.64 MAF Jan – Jul @ TDA
76.40 MAF Jan – Jul @ TDA
75.54 MAF Jan – Jul @ TDA 73.55 MAF Jan – Jul @ TDA
Required SpillRequired SpillProject Duration QS 120% TDG MNQS MNQ
T
LWG All Hours 20 k 41 k 6.1 k 11.5 k
LGS All Hours QO Deadband @ 25 k – 35 k 30%** 32 k 7.2 k Hi Crest* 11.5 k
LMN All Hours Gas Cap 24 k 7.9 k 11.5 k
IHR 0500 – 1800 day 1800 – 0500 night Start 45k/TDG:4/3 5/2 5/6 5/12 5/16 5/22 5/28 6/3----------------------------------------------------------- Start 30%/TDG beginning 0500 4/30:4/30 5/4 5/8 5/14 5/20 5/24 6/1 6/5
45k day /Gas cap night-----------------
-30% day /
Gas cap night
95 k 8.4 k 9.5 k
MCN 4/10-6/19 All Hours 40% 145 k 50 k
JDA 4/10-6/19 All HoursAlternate 30/40%. Changes at 0600:30%: 4/28 5/4 5/8 5/16 5/20 5/24 5/30 6/5-----------------------------------------------------------40%: 4/30 4/30 5/6 5/12 5/18 5/22 5/28
30%------------------
40% 120 k 50 k
TDA 4/10-6/30 All Hours 40% 125 k 50 k
BON 4/10-6/20 All Hours 100 k 100 k 75 k 30 k
The Current Water YearThe Current Water YearExtremely ChallengingExtremely Challenging
Ramifications of Min Gen Spill the restRamifications of Min Gen Spill the rest Shape of scheduled generationShape of scheduled generation
Maintaining upward AND downward reservesMaintaining upward AND downward reserves ReservesReserves
QuantitiesQuantities
Location – Fisheries constraints limit LCOL, LSNLocation – Fisheries constraints limit LCOL, LSN WindWind
Location relative to reservesLocation relative to reservesN of John Day – West of McNary – N of HanfordN of John Day – West of McNary – N of Hanford
DSO 216 measuresDSO 216 measures
The Current Water YearThe Current Water YearExtremely ChallengingExtremely Challenging
Coordination will be the key – both internally and Coordination will be the key – both internally and externally.externally.
Spring freshet has begun and we are in better Spring freshet has begun and we are in better shape now than in April.shape now than in April.
Similar low flow conditions are likely to occur in Similar low flow conditions are likely to occur in mid to late August depending on how available mid to late August depending on how available water is requested by salmon managers.water is requested by salmon managers.
BPA General Facts and FiguresBPA General Facts and Figures
7,588 - average annual MW hydro generation 7,588 - average annual MW hydro generation 31 - total hydro projects with varying modeling complexity31 - total hydro projects with varying modeling complexity20,230 MW - total Nameplate hydro Capacity20,230 MW - total Nameplate hydro Capacity18,139 - all time peak generation (2002)18,139 - all time peak generation (2002)45 - types of project/system constraints to be modeled45 - types of project/system constraints to be modeled15,212 - circuit miles of transmission owned by BPA 15,212 - circuit miles of transmission owned by BPA 300,000 - sq miles service area for BPA300,000 - sq miles service area for BPA147 - total wholesale customers147 - total wholesale customers13 - federally recognized tribes and reservations in the 13 - federally recognized tribes and reservations in the basinbasinOver $2 billion spent on fish and wildlife programs Over $2 billion spent on fish and wildlife programs since1978since1978