Week 2: The Problem of Crime

To deal effectively with crime we need good info about:

• What kinds of crimes are happening

• How much they are occurring

• Who is involved in them

• Where & when they are likely to happen

How do we get this information?• The “crime data problem”

How to get empirical crime data? Different info sources on social events

A. Official records (of criminal cases)

B. Surveys (of people’s experiences)

C. Observations (of criminal events)

D. Other sources (of information about criminal persons or events)

Mostly emphasize the first two (for estimating crime trends and patterns)

A. Official Records of crime cases1) Police Uniform Crime Reports (UCR)

1) Police records of “crimes reported” and “arrests made” 2) From statistics reported to the FBI by police depts.3) Note Division of UCR into 2 categories:

1)Part I: the “Index” Crimes (Crimes known + Arrests)2)Part II: the “other” crimes (all other offenses) (Arrests)

– UCR = “aggregate” (group-level) reports– Problems only include recorded crimes

• Selective reporting (to police and by police)• “Hierarchy rule” undercounts• Non-reporting of many crimes (“dark figure”)

– NIBRS = incident-level reports (recent alternative to traditional UCR)

Official Records (continued) Other types of official records?

2)Court records (cases filed & adjudications)– Juvenile courts– Administrative/regulatory courts

3)Correctional records (data on outcomes)– Data on hard-core vs. lesser offenders

These all represent only “processed” cases

Beyond Official records = “Semi-official records” from other agencies (e.g., ERs, fire depts, social services [DFSC], insurance companies, stores, security firms)

B. Surveys as 2nd major source of crime data

• How do surveys differ from records?

– Sample from population

– Questionnaire or interview of responders

• 2 Kinds of surveys used for crime data

– Victimization Surveys

– Self-Report Surveys

B. Surveys (of potential victims & offenders)

1. “Victimization” or “Victim” surveys – Survey of population re: victimization– Official victim survey = NCVS (BJS)– Unofficial surveys (for special crimes)

2. “Self-report” surveys– Juvenile delinquency– Victimless crimes (e.g., drugs)– “Ordinary crimes”– Chronic offenders

Comparing sources of crime data:

B. Surveys vs. Official records

• Strengths & weaknesses of records?– It’s always being collected and it’s official

– Biases & errors?

• Strengths & weaknesses of surveys?– More detailed info & unrecorded crimes

– Biases & errors?

• Which kind of data is best?

Other Data Sources for Crime?

C. Observations (natural or contrived)

D. Other possibilities– Life Histories

– Case studies & field studies

– Historical documents

– Media accounts

– Personal experiences

According to the available crime data: What crimes occur & how often?• Part I crimes & Part II crimes

• Other categories of crimes?– Violent Crimes (crimes against persons)

– Property Crimes

– Public Order Crimes (vice; disorder)

– Political Crimes

– White-Collar Crimes

– Organized Crime

Part I (Index) Crimes

1. Murder (nonnegligent homicide)

2. Aggr. Sexual Assault (Forcible Rape)

3. Robbery

4. Aggravated Assault (& Battery)

5. Burglary

6. Larceny/Theft

7. Motor Vehicle Theft

8. Arson

Part I (Index) Crimes

• Part I Crimes known or reported to police:– About 12% are violent crimes– About 88% are property crimes

• Crimes Known vs. Crimes Occurring?– 47% of violent crimes are reported to police

(54% of serious violence)– 40% of property crimes are reported to police

• Crimes known vs. arrests made?– 46% of reported violent crime result in arrest– 17% of reported property crimes result in arrest

Crimes Reported to Police

Clearances of UCR Crimes

Part II Crimes (all other crimes)?

• Only arrest statistics reported for these• 83% of all arrests involve Part II crimes

(17% = Part I arrests)• Largest category = public order crimes

(alcohol + drug-related)• Part 2 includes both violent & property

crimes, as well as public order crimes• Part 2 crimes cover the whole range of

severity (from trivial to lethal acts)• Note: Part 1 and Part 2 do not correspond

simply to “serious” and “minor” crimes

Are crime rates changing?

• Short-term fluctuations = “noise”• Regular cyclical changes?

– time of day & seasonal variations

• Irregular trends and changes?– Over the centuries?– During last century?– During this century (since 2000)?

• Future trends

UCR Crime Rates 1960-2010

UCR Crime Rates 1960-2010

30-year Trend in UCR Murder Rates: 1990-2010

Trends from 4 Different Data Sources

Variations in crime by location?

Where are we at greatest risk?

•Regional differences?

•Urban-rural differences?

•Public spaces

•Residential locations

•International patterns?– Is the US one of the more crime-ridden

countries in the world?

Regional Differences in Crime

RegionViolent Crime Property Crime

Northeast 357 2,116

South 452 3,439

Midwest 363 2,834

West 401 2,887

Who commit crimes (usually)?

The Usual comparisons:

•Young vs. Older people

•Males vs. females

•Racial Minorities vs. majorities

•Lower vs. middle vs. upper classes

Age Differences in Crime

• The Universal Age Curve of crime

Gender Differences in Crime

• Different percentages/ratios of male-to-female involvement in crime

– Violence = about 8-to-1 (male/female)– Property = about 3-to-1 (male/female)

• Recent changes in female criminality?– Convergence hypothesis gender rates getting closer– Note differences between property & violence almost

all of convergence occurs in a few property crimes– Problem of relying on arrest data we can’t separate

changes in criminal behavior from changes in police practices

Racial Patterns in Crime• Large, persistent Black/White differentials in

arrest rates• Other offenses may show different pattern

– Violent crimes (including domestic violence)– Property Crimes– Substance Abuse– White-Collar crimes– Organized crimes

• Other crime data sources may be different– UCR vs. NCVS vs. Self-report

The racial picture is more complex if we look at all the data (not just UCR arrests)

Social Classes Differences in Crime?• An old idea = hard to document empirically• “Social Class” = difficulty to define precisely• Some offenses show differences by

economic level– Violent crimes (but less for domestic violence)– Property Crimes (much smaller differences)– Substance Abuse (inconsistent differences)– White-Collar crimes

• Differences depend on crime data sources– Biggest differences in arrest data– Least difference in self-report data

• Overall, social class differences are arguable

Characteristics of Victims?

• How has highest risk of being a victim of crime?

• Victims have similar profiles to Offenders

– Young– Male– Minority– Poor