Date post: | 31-Oct-2014 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | sdl-social-intelligence |
View: | 381 times |
Download: | 1 times |
SDL Proprietary and Confidential SDL Proprietary and Confidential
USA Presidential Race 2012 By Battleground States
Date Range: September 29 – October 5, 2012
3%
18%
12%
34%
18%
7% 8%
Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS
Middle Class Jobs/Economy
Budget/Deficit Obamacare
Foreign Policy
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100
All Eight States
2
Share of Voice – Key Issues
Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)
KEY FINDINGS:
This week, due to the presidential debate on
Wednesday, October 3, people in the eight
states talked mostly about “Jobs/Economy”
(34.2%). The second most popular issue was
“Budget deficit” (18.6%). The issue “Foreign
Policy” decreased further in share of voice by
7.3%.
• Obama: Obama’s Sentiment Score
improved slightly by 1.7 this week. He only
led in sentiment in New Hampshire and
Nevada.
• Romney: By arguably winning the first
debate on Wednesday, October 3 (according
to many), Romney’s Sentiment Score saw a
boost of 10.1 this week. However, his
overall score was still at a negative score of
-0.3.
Current
Week
Previous
Week Change
Abortion/Choice 3.1% 4.9% 1.8%
Medicare/Social
Security 17.9% 15.8% 2.1%
Protecting the
middle class 11.8% 11.8% 0%
Jobs/Economy 34.2% 33.3% 0.9%
Budget deficit 18.6% 14.5% 4.1%
Obamacare 6.7% 4.7% 2.0%
Foreign Policy 7.7% 15.0% 7.3%
Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change
Obama -1.8 -3.5 1.7
Romney -0.3 -10.4 10.1
5%
14%
13%
34%
25%
4% 5%
Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS
Middle Class Jobs/Economy
Budget/Deficit Obamacare
Foreign Policy
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100
Wisconsin
3
Share of Voice – Key Issues
Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)
KEY FINDINGS:
Wisconsinites mostly discussed
“Jobs/Economy” (33.8%) and “Budget deficit”
(24.6%). They did not talk much about “Foreign
Policy”, which dropped by 10.7% in share of
voice.
• Obama: The volume of conversations about
Obama was roughly 4,000. His Sentiment
Score dropped by 7.4 to a negative score of
-3.1. This was due to the fact that
Wisconsinites displayed displeasure in their
comments with Obama’s performance in the
debate. They gave negative comments on
his plan for the economy and
unemployment.
• Romney: Romney led in volume this week
with over 5,000 mentions. He also led in
sentiment with a score of -2.6, which
increased by 16.4 from last week. He
received negative comments on his plan for
the middle class. However, many said that
he would be the one to restore the economy.
Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change
Obama -3.1 4.3 7.4
Romney -2.6 -19 16.4
Current
Week
Previous
Week Change
Abortion/Choice 5.4% 4.3% 1.1%
Medicare/Social
Security 14.1% 17.9% 3.8%
Protecting the
middle class 13.4% 13.4% 0%
Jobs/Economy 33.8% 27.2% 6.6%
Budget deficit 24.6% 15.4% 9.2%
Obamacare 4.1% 6.5% 2.4%
Foreign Policy 4.6% 15.3% 10.7%
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100
Virginia
4
Share of Voice – Key Issues
Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)
KEY FINDINGS:
The two issues that had significant changes in
share of voice this week in Virginia were
“Jobs/Economy” and “Foreign Policy”. The
main issue in the debate, “Jobs/Economy”,
increased by 14.2% in share of voice, and
“Foreign Policy” decreased by 19.1% in share of
voice.
• Obama: The number of conversations
about Obama was around 10,000. His
Sentiment Score improved by 6.7 over the
last week. He was criticized for his pro-
choice stance and military spending.
• Romney: Romney not only led in volume
this week with over 12,000 mentions, but he
also led in sentiment with a score of -0.3.
He received compliments on his
performance in Wednesday’s debate.
However, some Virginians were still not
happy with his plan for the middle class.
Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change
Obama -1.2 -7.9 6.7
Romney -0.3 0 0.3
Current
Week
Previous
Week Change
Abortion/Choice 2.8% 7.1% 4.3%
Medicare/Social
Security 18.9% 14.7% 4.2%
Protecting the
middle class 12.1% 8.7% 3.4%
Jobs/Economy 35.1% 20.9% 14.2%
Budget deficit 17.7% 13.6% 4.1%
Obamacare 4.8% 7.3% 2.5%
Foreign Policy 8.6% 27.7% 19.1%
3%
19%
12%
35%
18%
5% 8%
Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS
Middle Class Jobs/Economy
Budget/Deficit Obamacare
Foreign Policy
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100
North Carolina
5
Share of Voice – Key Issues
Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)
KEY FINDINGS:
“Jobs/Economy” was also the most popular
issue this week in North Carolina. In addition,
North Carolinians spoke more about
“Medicare/Social Security”, which increased by
8.3% in share of voice, and less about “Foreign
Policy”, which decreased by 9.0% in share of
voice.
• Obama: Obama continued to lead in
volume in North Carolina this week with
roughly 12,000 mentions. However, he lost
in sentiment with a negative score of -2.8.
There were more people commenting
negatively on the president, as they said
they did not see any improvements since
Obama took office.
• Romney: The volume of conversations
about Romney was around 11,000. His
Sentiment Score saw a boost of 18.7 from
last week, making him lead in sentiment this
week. Many North Carolinians did not think
that Romney’s health care would be better,
and that his tax break plan would not work
well. However, many believed that he would
be able to resolve the high unemployment
rate.
Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change
Obama -2.8 -1.5 1.3
Romney -0.9 -19.6 18.7
Current
Week
Previous
Week Change
Abortion/Choice 3.0% 2.3% 0.7%
Medicare/Social
Security 18.6% 10.3% 8.3%
Protecting the
middle class 11.7% 12.7% 1.0%
Jobs/Economy 35.1% 30.5% 4.6%
Budget deficit 16.1% 23.3% 7.2%
Obamacare 7.8% 4.2% 3.6%
Foreign Policy 7.7% 16.7% 9.0%
3%
18%
12%
35%
16%
8% 8%
Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS
Middle Class Jobs/Economy
Budget/Deficit Obamacare
Foreign Policy
3%
19%
12%
35%
17%
7% 7%
Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS
Middle Class Jobs/Economy
Budget/Deficit Obamacare
Foreign Policy
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100
Florida
6
Share of Voice – Key Issues
Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)
KEY FINDINGS:
The only issue that had a significant change in
share of voice in Florida was “Budget deficit”,
which increased by 6.0%. “Jobs/Economy”,
however, remained the most popular issue with
35.4% in share of voice.
• Obama: The number of mentions about
Obama in Florida was around 20,000, and
his Sentiment Score increased slightly by
3.0. However, he still received more
negative comments, leaving him with a
negative score of -0.7. He was criticized by
Floridians mostly on the high unemployment
rate and the poor economy.
• Romney: Romney led in volume with over
25,000 mentions, and in sentiment with a
positive score of 2.6 (+12.3). He mostly
received positive comments from the debate
on Wednesday, especially on his plan for the
middle class.
Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change
Obama -0.7 -3.7 3.0
Romney 2.6 -9.7 12.3
Current
Week
Previous
Week Change
Abortion/Choice 2.7% 4.2% 1.5%
Medicare/Social
Security 18.7% 19.3% 0.6%
Protecting the
middle class 11.9% 12.8% 0.9%
Jobs/Economy 35.4% 38.1% 2.7%
Budget deficit 17.2% 11.2% 6.0%
Obamacare 6.8% 4.3% 2.5%
Foreign Policy 7.3% 10.1% 2.8%
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100
Ohio
7
Share of Voice – Key Issues
Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)
KEY FINDINGS:
This week, Ohioans talked mostly about the 3
main issues in the debate: “Jobs/Economy”
(34.9%), “Budget deficit” (18.6%), and
“Medicare/Social Security” (16.7%).
• Obama: With 12,000 mentions and a
Sentiment Score of -1.9, Obama lost in
volume as well as sentiment in Ohio this
week. He was heavily criticized on the issue
“Budget deficit”, as many Ohioans were
unhappy that Obama broke his promise of
reducing the deficit, by instead increasing it
further.
• Romney: Romney led in volume with over
14,000 mentions. His Sentiment Score,
which was -1.7, was a bit better than
Obama’s. Many Ohioans were not
convinced of his health care plan and his tax
break plan.
Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change
Obama -1.9 -4.6 2.7
Romney -1.7 -12.9 11.2
Current
Week
Previous
Week Change
Abortion/Choice 3.7% 7.8% 4.1%
Medicare/Social
Security 16.7% 14.7% 2.0%
Protecting the
middle class 8.2% 10.4% 2.2%
Jobs/Economy 34.9% 35.1% 0.2%
Budget deficit 18.6% 13.0% 5.6%
Obamacare 8.4% 3.6% 4.8%
Foreign Policy 9.5% 15.4% 5.9%
4%
17% 8%
35%
19%
8% 9%
Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS
Middle Class Jobs/Economy
Budget/Deficit Obamacare
Foreign Policy
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100
Colorado
8
Share of Voice – Key Issues
Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)
KEY FINDINGS:
Coloradoans shifted their attention this week
from “Foreign Policy” to “Medicare/Social
Security”. As a result, share of voice for
“Medicare/Social Security” increased by 7.0%,
and “Foreign Policy” decreased by 5.8%.
“Jobs/Economy” was still the most popular
issue.
• Obama: The number of conversations
about Obama was around 5,000. His
Sentiment Score dropped further by 2.2 over
last week, as he received negative
comments on his spending and his plan for
the middle class.
• Romney: Romney led in volume with over
5,500 mentions. He also led in sentiment
slightly with a score of -3.5. Some
Coloradoans said that all of his plans for the
economy and the budget presented in the
debate were “all talk and no proof”.
Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change
Obama -4.1 -1.9 2.2
Romney -3.5 -17.1 13.6
Current
Week
Previous
Week Change
Abortion/Choice 3.0% 2.8% 0.2%
Medicare/Social
Security 17.4% 10.4% 7.0%
Protecting the
middle class 10.9% 12.0% 1.1%
Jobs/Economy 31.2% 35.3% 4.1%
Budget deficit 24.2% 22.2% 2.0%
Obamacare 6.3% 4.5% 1.8%
Foreign Policy 7.0% 12.8% 5.8%
3%
18%
11%
31%
24%
6% 7%
Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS
Middle Class Jobs/Economy
Budget/Deficit Obamacare
Foreign Policy
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100
New Hampshire
9
Share of Voice – Key Issues
Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)
KEY FINDINGS:
People in New Hampshire focused most of their
attention on the issue “Protecting the middle
class” this week. It became the most popular
issue this week, after seeing a huge boost of
26.7% in share of voice.
• Obama: The volume of conversations about
Obama was roughly 800, but he led in
sentiment with a positive score of 2.5. He
received support for Medicare and his pro-
choice stance.
• Romney: Romney led in volume with over
1,000 mentions, but his Sentiment Score
decreased further by 6.6 to a negative score
of -11.6. He was mostly criticized for the
fact that his tax cuts and Medicare only
benefited the wealthy.
Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change
Obama 2.5 -5.3 7.8
Romney -11.6 -5.0 6.6
Current
Week
Previous
Week Change
Abortion/Choice 1.4% 5.9% 4.5%
Medicare/Social
Security 14.5% 21.3% 6.8%
Protecting the
middle class 36.0% 9.3% 26.7%
Jobs/Economy 24.9% 31.2% 6.3%
Budget deficit 13.0% 14.1% 1.1%
Obamacare 5.4% 3.4% 2.0%
Foreign Policy 4.8% 14.8% 10.0%
1%
15%
36% 25%
13% 5% 5%
Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS
Middle Class Jobs/Economy
Budget/Deficit Obamacare
Foreign Policy
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100
Nevada
10
Share of Voice – Key Issues
Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)
KEY FINDINGS:
Nevadans talked more about “Budget deficit”
this week, and less about “Jobs/Economy”. As
a result, share of voice for “Budget deficit”
increased by 12.7%, while “Jobs/Economy”
dropped by 14.4%. However, the latter was still
the most popular issue in Nevada.
• Obama: The volume of mentions about
Obama was around 2,700. His Sentiment
Score increased by 5.9 from last week, but it
still stayed negative at -2.2. Many
Nevadans said they did not trust his
Medicare plan, Obamacare.
• Romney: Although Romney led in volume
with over 3,000 mentions this week, he lost
in sentiment with a negative score of -5.3, as
he received many negative comments on his
health care plan (like Obama).
Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change
Obama -2.2 -8.1 5.9
Romney -5.3 -19.6 14.3
Current
Week
Previous
Week Change
Abortion/Choice 2.4% 5.7% 3.3%
Medicare/Social
Security 20.1% 12.6% 7.5%
Protecting the
middle class 15.5% 12.0% 3.5%
Jobs/Economy 25.1% 39.5% 14.4%
Budget deficit 23.3% 10.6% 12.7%
Obamacare 5.6% 3.6% 2.0%
Foreign Policy 8.0% 16.0% 8.0%
2%
20%
16%
25%
23%
6% 8%
Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS
Middle Class Jobs/Economy
Budget/Deficit Obamacare
Foreign Policy
Candidate Sentiment Score* by State
11
State Obama Romney
Current Week Previous Week Change Current Week Previous Week Change
Wisconsin -3.1 4.3 7.4 -2.6 -19 16.4
Virginia -1.2 -7.9 6.7 -0.3 0 0.3
North Carolina -2.8 -1.5 1.3 -0.9 -19.6 18.7
Florida -0.7 -3.7 3.0 2.6 -9.7 12.3
Ohio -1.9 -4.6 2.7 -1.7 -12.9 11.2
Colorado -4.1 -1.9 2.2 -3.5 -17.1 13.6
New Hampshire 2.5 -5.3 7.8 -11.6 -5.0 6.6
Nevada -2.2 -8.1 5.9 -5.3 -19.6 14.3
• Romney’s Sentiment Score improved significantly this week in Wisconsin, Virginia, Florida, Ohio,
Colorado, and Nevada. He had one positive score in Florida.
• Obama’s only positive score was in New Hampshire. He only led in sentiment in New Hampshire and
Nevada.
*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100
Share of Voice for Key Issues by State
12
State Abortion/
Choice
Medicare/
Social
Security
Protecting
the middle
class
Jobs/
Economy
Budget
deficit Obamacare
Foreign
Policy
Wisconsin 5.4% 14.1% 13.4% 33.8% 24.6% 4.1% 4.6%
Virginia 2.8% 18.9% 12.1% 35.1% 17.7% 4.8% 8.6%
North
Carolina 3.0% 18.6% 11.7% 35.1% 16.1% 7.8% 7.7%
Florida 2.7% 18.7% 11.9% 35.4% 17.2% 6.8% 7.3%
Ohio 3.7% 16.7% 8.2% 34.9% 18.6% 8.4% 9.5%
Colorado 3.0% 17.4% 10.9% 31.2% 24.2% 6.3% 7.0%
New
Hampshire 1.4% 14.5% 36.0% 24.9% 13.0% 5.4% 4.8%
Nevada 2.4% 20.1% 15.5% 25.1% 23.3% 5.6% 8.0%
• “Jobs/Economy” was still the most popular issue in all states, except for New Hampshire where the issue
“Protecting the middle class” had the lead. Meanwhile, “Budget deficit” was most popular in Wisconsin,
while “Medicare/Social Security” was most popular in Nevada.
Copyright © 2008-2012 SDL plc. All rights reserved.. All company names, brand names, trademarks,
service marks, images and logos are the property of their respective owners.
This presentation and its content are SDL confidential unless otherwise specified, and may not be
copied, used or distributed except as authorised by SDL.