Weekly Analysis - Theo Trade€¦ · 08/08/2018 · Title: Weekly Analysis Author: Corey...

1

© 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.

1 Inter-market Technical Analysis for August 13, 2018

WWWeeeeeekkklllyyy IIInnnttteeerrr---mmmaaarrrkkkeeettt TTTeeeccchhhnnniiicccaaalll RRReeepppooorrrttt Summary Chart

2



Intraday Intermarket

We had our expected - overdue even - snap-back in the equity market recently.

Gold collapsed lower, falling all the way to our intermediate target of $1,200 today.

Oil had a volatile ride, continuing a small downtrend but rapidly reversing into Monday's close.

Finally the US Dollar Index and US Treasury market surged higher recently, defying the odds

with breakouts to continue upswings already in motion.

3



10-Year Treasury Notes ($UST – Price)

Weekly

Our bullish BOUNCE OFF 118 from positive divergences plan was successful, and now we trade

the next immediate swing down against the 120 target which we can see and plan best on the

Daily Chart. Note the neutral spot here on the Weekly Chart as a TRIANGLE forms and the plan

against 120 which continued this week (departure swing lower to continue the downtrend).

4



Daily

Bonds surged back into the target and resistance level at 120 and ended the week into the

yellow resistance target level (and triangle on the weekly chart). We're neutral right now as

we once again trade a DEPARTURE from the 120 pivot level but won't get breakout bullish

until price trades well above 121.00.

5



US S&P 500 ($SPX)

Weekly

WE GOT our anticipated FUTURE BREAKOUT of the range as buyers thrust price higher in a

short-squeeze event toward 2,850. With no major update and a reversal candle into the

weekly Bollinger Band, the dominant thesis still calls for a bearish swing from 2,860 as we note

it as our BULL ABOVE; BEAR BENATH spot for trades this week with respect to the daily 20

EMA.

6



Daily:

Price successful pulls back to 2,820 as our simple "bullish breakout and short-squeeze" if

above 2,800 took us on a rally bounce off of 2,800 and then back toward it on last week's

correct sell-swing away from the high.

Again we got our partial pullback toward the 20 day EMA from the upper Bollinger Band and

2,860 level - for this week, we simply note and trade the departure from 2,820, likely toward

2,800, or beneath it on a breakdown. However, a bullish bounce continues the uptrend.

7



Gold

Weekly

Gold collapsed again relentlessly, continuing the downtrend (short-term) toward the $1,200

intermediate target achieved today. We've learned NOT to step in front of Gold and

commodities in big trending moves; stay out or get ready for an aggressive bounce play (risk

seekers) off $1,200.

8



Daily

We had a continued liquidation/breakdown event beneath $1,310 that collapsed Gold toward

$1,290 and then the recent reaction resulted in an extended collapse toward $1,250's target

and beneath all that toward our weekly $1,220 target into $1,200 today (collapse trend day).

Fade trades have been limited in the collapse and only aggressive traders should attempt

them. Here's our quote from last week: If we see continued action beneath $1,215 toward

$1,200, abandon all bullish plays and sell toward $1,200 which is an intermediate target.

9



WTI Crude Oil ($WTIC)

Weekly

We were correct on the Oil pullback back down away from the $75.00 initially and we'll keep

watching the DAILY chart for clues from here, along with any surprise bullish activity that takes

the market back above $75.00 BEFORE we get a steeper pullback than the few days we

expected last week. Price failed to bounce here, extending the pullback and sell-swing lower

under $70.00 Focus on the new support pivot into $65.00 for this week's swing trades.

10



Daily

Our short-term PULLBACK thesis called for a retracement event "fade trade" back toward $66 -

our pivot from which our dominant thesis bounce triggered and continues.

Note where we are on the WEEKLY CHART and frame your next trade(s) in terms of the

departure - off support/target - into $65.00 as price begins the week with reversal candles (so

far) off our $65.00 highlighted pivot price region.

11



US Dollar Index ($USD)

Weekly

We're watching the Dollar Index strengthen but stabilize into a trading range with divergences

on the Daily Chart. Focus on the DAILY levels and note the UPWARD PATHWAY that develops

above 95.50 and extends fully above 96.00 in the new uptrend.

12



Daily

We don't fight trends, and this is an over-extended one. Stay safe in this run-away breakout

bullish environment into resistance.

We're not getting any decent pullback and today gave us a strong bullish breakout event. Use

$96 as your departure point for next week and look to the weekly chart and the open air

above $96.00 toward $100 for longer-term guidance.

13



Disclaimer:

Neither TheoTrade or any of its officers, directors, employees, other personnel, representatives, agents or independent

contractors is, in such capacities, a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, registered broker-dealer or

FINRA|SIPC|NFA-member firm. TheoTrade does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment

recommendations. TheoTrade is not in the business of transacting trades, nor does TheoTrade agree to direct your

brokerage accounts or give trading advice tailored to your particular situation. Nothing contained in our content

constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, promotion, or endorsement of any particular security, other investment

product, transaction or investment. Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency

transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether

trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of

your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past

Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Date post:	31-Jul-2020
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	1 times
Download:	0 times

Weekly Analysis - Theo Trade€¦ · 08/08/2018 · Title: Weekly Analysis Author: Corey...

Documents