L HALCAPEX-12 ▲ALEX-20 ▼SEMSI ▲SEMDEX ▼S&P Pan Africa* ▼MSCI Frontier* ▼MSCI World* ▼S&P 500* ▼ESTX Eur 50* ▼FTSE 100* ▼Nikkei 225 ▼MSCI Emerging* ▼S&P Asia 50* ▼Sensex* ▼
Foreign Participation
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, 6th Floor, Dias Pier Building, Le Caudan Waterfront, Caudan, Port-Louis, 11307Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 405 4000 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com | BRN C07007948
26,763
1.44
2,077.99
2.8
13.8
As at
2,115.48
PER1,264.03
PBV
11.0
6.0
2,819.30
15,434
0.1%
1,628.13
1.0%
-10.9%-5.68%
16,668 -22.8%-4.52%
-14.3% 4.3
-0.4
13.8
51.7
5.9
2.7%0.81
-24.7
-0.4
All SEM
-22.9
163.9
17-Jun-2016
18.6
10.4
-1.8% -10.5%
1,745.120.98
0.82
179.4
2.0% -10.8%
876.29
207.4
17-Jun
43.5225.5
3.27 3.48
Indices
250.0
Weekly Insight
0.81
‒ 52Wk ‒
-1.77%
1,261.68 166.6
174.7
-5.57%
2.0%15.3
1 Wk YTDVal
878.09 13.8179.4
3.210.7
5.7%
Liquid 20
ChangeYoY
0.19% -5.9%
2.11.40837.03
1.472.07
26,525
5,950.48
99.19 -2.8%
20.82.78
515.3520.6
-18.2%
3.7
-2.9%
-17.8%19.2
1.18
2.2
-1.1%
-1.1%
6,231.89
0.7%
2.85
-18.9%
17-Jun-16
Key:MC = Mkt Cap.; Δ MC = Change in Mkt Cap,; TO =Turnover; FP = Foreign Participation; NFP = Net ForeignPurchases; PER = Price-Earnings Ratio; DY = Div. Yield;PBV = Price-Book (Net Asset Value) Ratio; ROE = Returnon Equity.
DY
-7.6%
0.08%-3.6%
4.3
-5.2% 1.70
-0.29%-3.58%
-0.21%
-0.62%
3.5
1,688.66
148.64
99.11
10-Jun
0.82
Week Ended
1,755.94
513.88140.37
14.1
-12.0%
2.8
2.2%
* Previous day's closing prices
Net FlowsActivity Spread
-15.3%
45.1
3.21.5
799.78-7.40%
-17.5%3,269.94
20.1
1.302,989.03
3,418.74-4.45%-4.35%-0.89%
4.6
-18
-7
-3
3 3
MCB SBM PBL CIEL LUX
Net
For
eign
pur
chas
es [R
s m]
85
100
115
130
Indi
ces
reba
sed
to 1
00 o
n 3
1-M
ar-2
013
SEM-SI MSCI FM ALEX-20 ALCAPEX-12
93%
2%2%2%1%0%FIN
CONS
T&L
INVH
MSCH
2
Weekly Insight 17-Jun-2016
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, 6th Floor, Dias Pier Building, Le Caudan Waterfront, Caudan, Port-Louis, 11307 Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com | BRN C07007947
Summary & Highlights Wobbly As polls suggesting a Brexit might be more likely than initially believed surfaced, markets became wobbly and mostly closed in negative territory. Market Cap. weighted indices measuring performance of the Mauritian Bourse closed also closed in the red; however, thematic indices, namely SEM Sustainability Index (SEMSI) and AXYS Capped Composite Index (ALCAPEX 12) – boosted by CTL’s record div. declaration – closed in positive territory. Following MK’s return to profits, Total Market PER improved from 14.8x to 13.8x while Market DY and Discount to book continued to hover at ~3.3% and 18% respectively.
Financials The banking duo coupled with MUA constituted 65% of Weekly TMT. MCB hovered at about Rs213 (±0%) throughout the week recording strong foreign participation of 70% and net outflows amounting to Rs18M. SBM retreated to 65cts (-1.5%) on foreign selling [Rs7M] while MUA witnessed an atypical exchange worth more than Rs10M at Rs62 (-1.6%). CIM continued along the down-track triggered by the confirmed renegotiation of the Indo-Mauritian DTA to near 3Yr-Low Rs6.62 (-2.4%) and asset finance-heavy FINC finished in the red at 5Mth-Low Rs18.50 (-4.6%).
Travel& Leisure Hotels were thinly traded with exchanges essentially driven by LUX at a flat Rs58.50 (±0%) while rarely traded SCT slid to Rs5 (-1.2%), and NMHL closed down by 10cts at Rs20.40. On Friday morning, NMHL announced that it would – following Attitude Hospitality’s footsteps – transfer its three 4-Star hotels, plus land for the development of a 4-Star hotel on the west coast to “Beachcomber Hospitality Investments Ltd (BHI) for €175M and intends to raise €80M through a private placement. Following its renewal with profits, MK’s share price soared to Rs13.50 (+10%) but retreated to Rs12.70 (+3.3%) by week’s end. Similarly, LOTO eased off from its recent peak to Rs4.31 (-3.1%).
Multi-Sector Conglomerate/Holding Conglomerates were this week’s 2nd most active sector driven by atypically large exchanges on: UTIN which bounced back to Rs11 (+8.9%) on over 900k shares, and ENLL which traded at VWAP Rs39.37 (-4.0%) and bottomed out at 3Yr-Low, then recovered to Rs40 (-2.4%) by Friday. IBL – whose merger with GMLI was approved at Tuesday’s shareholder meeting – was also actively traded at Rs124, i.e. quasi-on par with July 14th re-introductory Rs25.65; as was EUDC at Rs15 (±0%). TERRA was by far this week’s most active sugar conglomerate picking up 15cts to Rs29.25 while
ALTEO plateaued at Rs25.50 (±0%). MEDL edged up by 0.4% to Rs57.25 while GAMMA edged down by 0.4% to Rs22.80 and HML slipped to new 6¾Yr-Low Rs83.50 (-0.6%) on a min. trade of 100 shares.
Consumer Staples | Discretionary Among Staples, PBL – boosted, yet again, by foreign purchases – inched up to Rs365.50 (+0.1%) and its holding, PHIN, followed suit to Rs222 (+0.9%). By contrast, defensive peers, INNO and MOR declined to Rs39.75 (-0.6%) and Rs25.85 (-1.3%) respectively. Illiquids MCOS and GOLI – who recently issued new shares at 3cts – plunged to Rs55.50 (-5.1%) and $0.02 (-33%) respectively. As for Discretionaries, ENLC gave up its recent gains back to Rs13.30 (-5.0%) while VEM continued to move up and closed at Rs96.50 (+3.5%). CTL unsurprisingly surged further into unchartered territory closing at ATH Rs41.15 (+2.9%), at which price, its DY remains a best-in class 7.9%!
Property | Materials | Healthcare Real Estate companies experienced a volatile week. Both CAUD and NOVUS experienced low-vol. ascents to respective Rs1.23 (+5.1%) and Rs8 (+6.7%) while BLFE which traded at VWAP Rs2.15 (-1.6%) cascaded down to Rs2.05 (-6.0%). UBP held steady at Rs80 on 6k shares while BYCH slid to yet another new All-Time Low Rs4.18 (-0.5%) on a mere 100 shares. Private Hospital, MASC, experienced a steep drop to Rs2.20 (-5.2%) in its final cum-Div. trading week.
Investment Holdings The liquid INVH quintet was appreciably traded throughout the week. CIEL which traded at VWAP Rs6.19 (+0.1%) closed down by 4cts at Rs6.14; POLI retreated further to Rs5.36 (-0.4%); MDIT inched up by 2cts to Rs3.88; NITL – albeit less traded than last week – changed hands at Rs33 (±0%); and PAD bounced back to Rs89.50 (+0.6%). BMHL crept up to Rs26.80 (+1.1%) on only 100 shares while BEEP which gave up the bulk of its intra-week gains nonetheless closed in the green at Rs16.20 (+1.3%).
Fixed Income | ETFs UBP 10/18 was this week’s only traded bond at 5.44% (+35bps), while NMHL(P) at actively traded a DY 5.84% (±0bps), i.e. with an estimated Yield-to-First Conversion (YT1C) of 9.79% (±0bps). Newly listed MCB Indian Sov. Bond ETF (MISB) traded at $10.01 (-0.3%) and S&P GIVI SA Top 50 (NERA) traded for the first time since Apr-15 at Rs110.61 (-25%).
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, 6th Floor, Dias Pier Building, Le Caudan Waterfront, Caudan, Port-Louis, 11307Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 405 4000 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com | BRN C07007948
New Mauritius Hotels Ltd (NMH)The board announced the setting up of a property company under the name of Beachcomber Hospitality Investments Ltd (“BHI”). Hotelproperties Le Mauricia, Le Victoria, Le Canonnier and the rights on 30A of land at Les Salines, Black River will be transferred to BHI in orderto develop a new 4-star hotel and reduce NMH’s level of indebtedness. BHI intends to raise equity of EUR80M by the way of a privateplacement to NMH’s existing shareholders and third party investors and also list its shares on the SEM.
Ireland Blyth Ltd (IBL)The board announced the amalgamation approval by shareholders of Ireland Blyth Ltd with GML Investissement Ltd (GMLI) renamed ‘IBLLtd’ effective as from 1 July 2016. Upon completion of the amalgamation, GMLI will issue 4.8277 new GMLI shares for every one IBL shareheld. SEM’s LEC also approved the listing of 680M ordinary shares of ‘IBL Ltd’.
ABC Banking Corporation (ABCB)The board has approved the issue of 19M new ordinary shares on the DEM as from 20th June 2016. Dale Capital Group Ltd (DALE)DALE’sboard announced the issue of 16.4M new ordinary shares subject to approval at an indicative price of Rs1.90 by the way of a privateplacement in order to re-launch its investment platform and pursue its growth strategy in the region.
Compagnie des Magasins Populaires Ltee (CMPL) The SEM’s LEC approved the listing of 14M new ordinary shares on the Official Market at an indicative price of Rs10. 6.4 new ordinaryshares will be issued for every one ordinary share held.
Soap & Allied Industries Ltd (Ltd)The board announced the acquisition of the remaining 7.2% of SIL’s shareholding making it the sole Shareholder of SIL on 14 June 2016.On 16 June 2016, 28k new ordinary shares were issued to the ratio of 4:1 for every one SIL share held.
Lottotech (LOTO)In the absence of any positive outcome of discussions between LOTO and the Gambling Regulatory Authority (“GRA”), the board filed a“Mise En Demeure” before the Supreme Court of Mauritius (Commercial Division) against GRA and the Ministry of Finance and EconomicEmpowerment.
Weekly Insight
The prospect of Britain leaving the European Union weighed heavily on markets as opinion polls suggested the result of the referendum on June 23rd will be much closer than had been thought. Investors’ desire for safety drove the yield on German ten-year governmentbonds below zero for the first time. The pound continued its steep descent, falling at one point below $1.41.
Britain’s forthcoming referendum on whether to leave the European Union was too close to call. A worried Remain camp pressedLabour’s big guns to push hard to convince its supporters of the merits of staying in the union. Despite a late rush to register to vote,mostly by younger people, who tend to be EU-friendly, several polls showed a swing towards Leave. Ipsos MORI reported a big jump inconcern among the public about immigration, the ace card for the Leave campaign. Expect a tired and exasperated David Cameron onJune 24th, the day after the referendum, whichever way Britain votes.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold. Until recently it had been expected to raise rates this month, but it was unsettled by weakjobs data, among other things. However, the Fed did indicate that it plans two rate increases this year, so the guessing game about whenthat will happen starts all over again.
L HNewGOLD [Rs/coz]▲Gold [Rs/coz] ▲NewPLAT [Rs/coz] ▼Plat. [Rs/coz] ▼Sugar [Rs/t] ▲B.Crude [Rs/L] ▼S&P GIVI SA Top 50 ▼*where coz ≡ centi troy ounce, i.e. ~0.3g; t ≡ tonne = 1,000kg; L ≡ Litre = 100cm 3
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, 6th Floor, Dias Pier Building, Le Caudan Waterfront, Caudan, Port-Louis, 11307Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 405 4000 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com | BRN C07007948
356.88
-7.94%
—
-16.0%
10.92
356.06
466.34
Weekly Insight
1.33
LCP
16,015
1.71
15,769
458.82
Week EndedPLIBOR
17-Jun-2016
20.2%
-8.4%
427.20
-0.38%355.54 -8.2% 434.25
YTDWk Ended
1.70
—
ETF & Commodity
-1.41%
10-Jun
11.0%
17-Jun
361.16
—52-Wk—
-0.58%
0.1
12.1%
29.6%
79.1%1.56%
110.61-24.6%
110.61
9.6%
11.67
6-0.75%1.32
3.7%
9.4%
5
—
30.9%
114.73
1 Wk
▼
YoY Val.434.16 20.5% —
-6.46%
▼
124.63
1.64%
3.43%
VWAP
3.9%
Change
-0.3%
10-Jun-2016
Change
YTD1 Week YTD in bps
449.06
17-Jun-2016
2.7
4.2
5.5
6.3
7.1
2.0
3.5
5.0
6.5
0 5 10 15 20So
vere
ign
Yiel
ds [
%]
Instrument Maturity [Yrs]
Log. (Previous)
Poly. (Current)
0.8
1.8
2.8
3.8
Inte
rest
Rat
e [%
]
PLIBOR 1-Day
PLIBOR 1-Wk
Tbill 91-Day
Current
Prev. Yr
85
90
95
100
105
110
Inde
x =
100
on 3
1-M
ar-1
5
NewGold [Rs] Gold [$]70
80
90
100
Inde
x =
100
on 3
1-M
ar-1
5
NewPlat [Rs]
Plat [$]50
75
100
125
150
175
Inde
x =
100
on 3
1-M
ar-1
5
Sugar [$]
Crude [$]
8
Forex Rates
L HUSD / MUREUR / MURGBP / MURZAR / MURAUD / MURJPY / MUR*Weight of currency in trade basket used to compute an MUR index (MURX)
Forex Market Watch
*where USDX is the USD Dollar index and MURX is an MUR index computed by AXYS against five peers using the trade basket
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, 6th Floor, Dias Pier Building, Le Caudan Waterfront, Caudan, Port-Louis, 11307Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 405 4000 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com | BRN C07007948
40.90
During the week ended Jun 16th 2016, the Bank of Mauritius did intervene on the domestic foreign exchange marketpurchasing $49.9M at Rs35.60.
36.30
52.310.8%
26.93-18.1%
3%2.39
14.7%
7%
17-Jun-2016
-8.3%2.3%
▼
1 WkWeek Ended
-2.6%▼
Weekly Insight
40.84
26.8720.3%
0.4%
-0.6%
-2.79%
—52-Wk Range—
YTD 52 Wks
34.98 2.98%
2.46
2.1%
-4.5%1.1%
-0.22%
10-JunChange
-1.19%▼
▲
51.69
Currency
▲ 33.97
6%
57%Wt*
▼
17-Jun
27%36.20 0.29%
-0.15%
-18
-9
0
9
Inde
x =
100
on 3
1-M
ar-2
013
USD EUR GBP
Elections
25
475
925
1,375
1,825
92
94
96
98
100
102
BoM FX purchases [Rs M
]Inde
x =
100
on 3
1-M
ar-1
5
BoM MURX USDX
8.91
11.92
7.18
10.37
15.08
13.85 1.28
3.80
14.89
14.57
10.2
15.7
22.1
24.9
15.1 13.8
2930 31 31
3536
4039
41 41
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
USD bought [Rs bn]
EUR bought [Rs bn]
USD VWAP [Rs]
EUR VWAP [Rs]
9
SEM Listed Fund Net Asset Values
Africa Sustainability Fund
Bayport Management Ltd
Colina Holdings Ltd
Global Diversified Fund PCC - Cell No. 1
Global Windsor Capital Fund Ltd
Mauritius Development Investment Trust
National Investment Trust
Novare Africa Fund PCC
NinetyEast Timaeus Capital Fund PCC - Cell A
P.O.L.I.C.Y. Ltd
RSJ Prop, PCC
Summit Funds PCC - Balanced Fund (SFPBF)
Triangle Real Estate India Fund LLC
Universal Golden Fund
AfrAsia Capital Management Ltd
– ACM India Focus Fund
– ACM Aussie Ltd
– ACM European Ltd
– AfrAsia Special Opportunities Fund
– AfrAsia Special Opportunities Fund
Global Investment Opportunities Fund Ltd
– Kotak Indian Growth Fund (Class A)
– Kotak Indian Mid-Cap Fund (Class C)
Imara
– Imara African Opportunities Fund Ltd
– Imara Global Fund Ltd
IPRO Ltd
IPRO Growth Fund Ltd
IPRO African Market Leaders Fund Ltd
Kotak Investment Opportunities Fund Ltd (KIOFL) Class D Shares
– Kotak Indian Infrastructure & Realty Fund (Series 1)
– Kotak Indian Infrastructure & Realty Fund (Series 2)
Select Abbreviations
Disclaimer
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, 6th Floor, Dias Pier Building, Le Caudan Waterfront, Caudan, Port-Louis, 11307Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 405 4000 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com | BRN C07007948
Rs 69.11 70.45 70.45 0.0% -1.6%
▼ Rs 5.21 5.28 5.19 -1.7% -2.8%
—
AXYS Stockbroking Ltd has issued this document without consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individualrecipient. AXYS Stockbroking Ltd will not be under any liability for loss or damage of any kind whatsoever arising in connection with the contents of thisdocument. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment.This document has been based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but which have not been independently verified. AXYSStockbroking Ltd makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. AXYSStockbroking Ltd is a member of the Stock Exchange of Mauritius and is licensed by the Financial Services Commission.
$
$
▬
1,219
Month Ended
562.45
13.09
28.28
$
$
Official Market Apr-16
Weekly Insight17-Jun-2016
-0.5%
R (ZAR)
2.8%
$ (AUD)
▲
$
2.4%
12.56
▲
541.30
472.97454.91
549.26
▲
▬
ChangeYTD
0.9%
749.47655.17
▼
▲
▲
27.23
802.37
€
-1.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.97
0.5%
0.3%
13.9%-5.0%
▬
▼ Rs 3.56 3.53 3.45 -2.3% -7.8%
▬
▲
▬
35.6%
6.00
$
1.00 0.0%
0.0%
-60.9%
▲ 1,170
MtoM
99.66
857.19
6.60
0.97
-2.6%
2.10
30.1833.35
0.98
0.0%3.79
121.25
Rs
—
-2.1%
470.02 -2.7%▲
106.69
814.51
99.71
5.72
106.69
$
£
1.00
1.00
$ 99.71
2.09
May-16751.53
▼
$
▼Mar-16
▲ 4.05
25.65
1.47
$
▼
▼
▬ 0.0%
▬
▼
151.40
2.3%
—
1,718
-13.5%
0.0%
0%
1.47
2.02
0.0%
-3.4%
—
-9.8%
-3.1%
595.87
0.1%
-0.8%
4.2%
1.52
13.09
1.17
28.39
$
$
$
Sectors:FIN = Financial; TL = Travel & Leisure; MSCH = Multi-Sector Conglomerates & Holdings; CONS = Consumer Staples; COND = Consumer Discretionary; MAT =Materials; IND = Industrials; HLTH = Health; COMM = Communications; PROP = Property; INVH = Investment Holdings; UT = Utilities; GOV = Public Sector;OTH =Other.
