Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Weekly Review June 5, 2010 Markets extend gains during the week The Indian stock market extended its gains during the week, amidst sessions marked by volatility, with both the benchmark indices, the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty, ending higher by 1.5% and 1.4%, respectively. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices were up during the week, gaining 2.0% and 1.7%, respectively, outperforming their large-cap counterparts. Positive global cues coupled with positive domestic triggers, such as robust GDP data and steady progress of monsoons, lifted investor sentiment during the week. On the sectoral front, most of the major sectoral indices ended in green, with the BSE auto index gaining the maximum of 4.4%, followed by the BSE FMCG index rising 3.6%. However, BSE metals and BSE realty indices were down 2.1% and 0.7%, respectively. BSE Auto Index - Maruti and M&M outperform Robust May 2010 vehicle sales triggered BSE auto index to gain 4.4% during the quarter, outperforming the benchmark BSE Sensex, which gained 1.5%. Gains in the index were largely driven by heavyweights Maruti Suzuki and M&M, having weightage of 15% and 19%, respectively. Maruti posted an increase of 8.8% during the week on the back of strong sales volumes in May. M&M gained 7.4% for the week on the back of strong 4QFY2010 results and robust sales growth in May. Other index members, such as Hero Honda, Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland, also posted steady gains of 3-6% during the week, aided by strong volume numbers. We remain positive on the Indian auto sector. We estimate overall auto volumes to register a CAGR of around 10% over FY2010-12E, aided by the improved economic environment for the sector. Among the pack, we remain overweight on M&M, Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors. Inside This Weekly FM directs listed companies to have 25% Public Float: There are almost 190 companies where the promoter holding is more than the stipulated 75% with around 80% of the same being accounted by the PSU companies. Post the current notification, the quantum money to be raised would be around 0.8% of overall market cap every year, which we believe can sail through without much impact on overall markets. United Phosphorus - Initiating Coverage: United Phosphorus ranks among the Top-5 generic agrichemical manufacturers in the world. We expect UPL to report CAGRs of 9% and 17% in sales and PAT over FY2010-12E, respectively. We Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Buy and Target Price of Rs226, valuing the stock at 13x FY2012E EPS. Auto Sector Update - May 2010: Indian auto companies continued to report impressive performance in May 2010. Maruti Suzuki and Hero Honda recorded the highest-ever monthly sales. Strong growth across segments continues, with demand surpassing supply in a few segments due to short supply from vendors. Demand is high despite increased vehicle prices announced by most auto majors to pass on the cost impact to consumers. Note: Stock Prices are as on Report release date; Refer all Detailed Reports on Angel website Global Indices Indices May June Weekly YTD 28, 10 4, 10 (% chg) BSE 30 16,863 17,118 1.5 (2.0) NSE 5067 5136 1.4 (1.3) Nasdaq 2,257 2,219 (1.7) (2.2) DOW 10,137 9,932 (2.0) (4.8) Nikkei 9,763 9,901 1.4 (6.1) HangSeng 19,767 19,780 0.1 (9.6) Straits Times 2,740 2,807 2.4 (3.1) Shanghai Composite 2,656 2,554 (3.8) (22.1) KLSE Composite 1,269 1,294 2.0 1.7 Jakarta Composite 2,714 2,823 4.0 11.4 KOSPI Composite 1,623 1,664 2.5 (1.1) Indices May June Weekly YTD 28, 10 4, 10 (% chg) BANKEX 10,577 10,773 1.9 7.4 BSE AUTO 7,558 7,894 4.4 6.2 BSE IT 5,138 5,296 3.1 2.1 BSE PSU 8,893 9,171 3.1 (3.8) Sectoral Watch (Rs crore) Cash Futures Net As on (Equity) Activity May 28 484 1,496 1,979 May 31 801 (387) 414 Jun 01 (473) (897) (1,369) Jun 02 (128) 215 88 Jun 03 493 2,256 2,749 Net 1,177 2,684 3,861 FII activity (Rs crore) As on Purchases Sales Net Activity May 25 838 698 140 May 26 1,260 776 484 May 27 762 432 330 May 28 441 447 (6) May 31 566 580 (13) Net 3,867 2,934 934 Mutual Fund activity (Equity)
Transcript
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Weekly ReviewJune 5, 2010
Markets extend gains during the week
The Indian stock market extended its gains during the week, amidst sessionsmarked by volatility, with both the benchmark indices, the BSE Sensex andthe NSE Nifty, ending higher by 1.5% and 1.4%, respectively. BSE mid-capand small-cap indices were up during the week, gaining 2.0% and 1.7%,respectively, outperforming their large-cap counterparts. Positive global cuescoupled with positive domestic triggers, such as robust GDP data and steadyprogress of monsoons, lifted investor sentiment during the week. On thesectoral front, most of the major sectoral indices ended in green, with theBSE auto index gaining the maximum of 4.4%, followed by the BSE FMCGindex rising 3.6%. However, BSE metals and BSE realty indices were down2.1% and 0.7%, respectively.
BSE Auto Index - Maruti and M&M outperform
Robust May 2010 vehicle sales triggered BSE auto index to gain 4.4% duringthe quarter, outperforming the benchmark BSE Sensex, which gained 1.5%.Gains in the index were largely driven by heavyweights Maruti Suzuki andM&M, having weightage of 15% and 19%, respectively. Maruti posted anincrease of 8.8% during the week on the back of strong sales volumes inMay. M&M gained 7.4% for the week on the back of strong 4QFY2010results and robust sales growth in May. Other index members, such asHero Honda, Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland, also posted steady gains of3-6% during the week, aided by strong volume numbers. We remain positiveon the Indian auto sector. We estimate overall auto volumes to register aCAGR of around 10% over FY2010-12E, aided by the improved economicenvironment for the sector. Among the pack, we remain overweight onM&M, Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors.
Inside This Weekly
FM directs listed companies to have 25% Public Float: There are almost190 companies where the promoter holding is more than the stipulated75% with around 80% of the same being accounted by the PSU companies.Post the current notification, the quantum money to be raised would bearound 0.8% of overall market cap every year, which we believe can sailthrough without much impact on overall markets.
United Phosphorus - Initiating Coverage: United Phosphorus ranks amongthe Top-5 generic agrichemical manufacturers in the world. We expect UPLto report CAGRs of 9% and 17% in sales and PAT over FY2010-12E,respectively. We Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Buy and TargetPrice of Rs226, valuing the stock at 13x FY2012E EPS.
Auto Sector Update - May 2010: Indian auto companies continued toreport impressive performance in May 2010. Maruti Suzuki and Hero Hondarecorded the highest-ever monthly sales. Strong growth across segmentscontinues, with demand surpassing supply in a few segments due to shortsupply from vendors. Demand is high despite increased vehicle pricesannounced by most auto majors to pass on the cost impact to consumers.
Note: Stock Prices are as on Report release date; Refer all Detailed Reports on Angel website
Global Indices
Indices May June Weekly YTD
28, 10 4, 10 (% chg)
BSE 30 16,863 17,118 1.5 (2.0)
NSE 5067 5136 1.4 (1.3)
Nasdaq 2,257 2,219 (1.7) (2.2)
DOW 10,137 9,932 (2.0) (4.8)
Nikkei 9,763 9,901 1.4 (6.1)
HangSeng 19,767 19,780 0.1 (9.6)
Straits Times 2,740 2,807 2.4 (3.1)
Shanghai Composite 2,656 2,554 (3.8) (22.1)
KLSE Composite 1,269 1,294 2.0 1.7
Jakarta Composite 2,714 2,823 4.0 11.4
KOSPI Composite 1,623 1,664 2.5 (1.1)
Indices May June Weekly YTD
28, 10 4, 10 (% chg)
BANKEX 10,577 10,773 1.9 7.4
BSE AUTO 7,558 7,894 4.4 6.2
BSE IT 5,138 5,296 3.1 2.1
BSE PSU 8,893 9,171 3.1 (3.8)
Sectoral Watch
(Rs crore)Cash Futures Net
As on (Equity) Activity
May 28 484 1,496 1,979
May 31 801 (387) 414
Jun 01 (473) (897) (1,369)
Jun 02 (128) 215 88
Jun 03 493 2,256 2,749
Net 1,177 2,684 3,861
FII activity
(Rs crore)As on Purchases Sales Net Activity
May 25 838 698 140
May 26 1,260 776 484
May 27 762 432 330
May 28 441 447 (6)
May 31 566 580 (13)
Net 3,867 2,934 934
Mutual Fund activity (Equity)
June 5, 2010
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In the recent amendment to the Securities Contracts Rules, theFinance Ministry has directed all listed companies to have 25%public holding. The companies have been mandated to achievethe same through annual addition of not less than 5% over aperiod of three years. The companies are required to meet thecriteria through offer for sale or issues of fresh shares. Salientfeatures of the same include:
a) The minimum threshold level of public holding will be 25%for all listed companies.
b) Existing listed companies having less than 25% public holdingwill have to reach minimum 25% level by an annual additionof not less than 5% to public holding.
c) For new listing, if the post issue capital of the companycalculated at offer price is more than Rs 4,000cr, the companymay be allowed to go public with 10% public shareholdingand comply with the 25% public shareholding requirement byincreasing its public shareholding by at least 5% per annum.
d) For companies whose draft offer document is pending withthe Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on or beforethese amendments would have to comply with the 25% publicshareholding requirement by increasing its public shareholdingby at least 5% per annum, irrespective of the amount of postissue capital of the company calculated at offer price.
e) A company may increase its public shareholding by lessthan 5% in a year if such increase brings its public shareholdingto 25% levels in that year.
f) The requirement for continuous listing will be the same asthe conditions for initial listing.
g) Every listed company shall maintain public shareholding ofat least 25%. If the public shareholding in a listed companyfalls below 25% at any time, such a company shall bring thepublic shareholding to 25% within a maximum period of 12months from the date of such fall.
Impact Analysis
The guidelines are a move in the positive direction as it wouldwiden investor participation in the Equity markets as well asenhance the process of price discovery in the markets. Thereare almost 190 companies where the promoter holding is morethan the stipulated 80%. At current prices, the amount to be
FM directs listed companies to have 25% Public Float
Event Update
Research Team
Fundamental Focus |
raised by these companies would be around Rs 1.5lakh cr,with around 80% of the same being accounted by the PSUcompanies. The notification could result in many MNCcompanies, where the threshold limit is higher than 75%, optingfor delisting.
In terms of absorption of the same by the stock markets, webelieve that the directive will not exert significant pressure. Todraw the point, if we observe the change in the BSE-500 (whichaccounts for 93% of the overall market capitalisation of themarket) in terms of the Index value and the change in themarket capitalization during FY2003-10, the BSE - 500 indexhas increased 6.5x in value terms, while market capitalisationhas increased 11.5x in the mentioned period. Thus, the rise inmarket cap has been accounted by the issue of new paper.Our estimates suggest, on an average, new issues to the tuneof around 8% of the market cap has been absorbed very year.Going ahead post the current notification, the quantum moneyto be raised would be around 0.8% of overall market capevery year, which we believe can sail through without muchimpact on overall markets.
Company Market Cap Promoter Dilution Issuse Size
(Rs cr) Stake (%) (%) (Rs cr)
Top-5 PSU's
MMTC 148,088.5 99.3 24.3 36,029.9
NMDC 108,751.7 90.0 15.0 16,312.8
NTPC 166,228.5 84.5 9.5 15,791.7
Hind. Copper 44,003.5 99.6 24.6 10,820.5
SAIL 83,165.6 85.8 10.8 8,998.5
Top-5 Private Companies
Wipro 96,280.0 79.5 4.5 4,351.9
Rel. Power 38,336.8 84.8 9.8 3,749.3
DLF 47,815.8 78.6 3.6 1,740.5
JP Power 13,401.9 87.7 12.7 1,702.0
Mundra Port 27,564.8 80.2 5.2 1,425.1
Source: Company, Angel Research, Price as on June 4, 2010
PSU’s Most Affected
June 5, 2010
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Fundamental Focus |
A Premium Play
Innovators dominant in Off-patent space - Generic playersin sweet spot: The global Agrichem industry, valued at US$40bn (CY2008), is dominated by the Top-6 Innovators, viz.Bayer, Syngenta, Monsanto, BASF, DuPont and Dow, which enjoylarge market share of patented (28%) and off patent market(32%). Pertinently, the Top-6 Innovators also enjoy a large shareof the Off-patent market due to the high entry barriers for thepure generic players. Thus, 1/3rd of the total pie worthUS $13bn (controlled by the Top-6 Innovators throughproprietary off-patent products) provides high growthopportunity for larger integrated Generic players like UPL.
Generic Segment market share to increase: The Genericplayers have been garnering high market share, increasingfrom 32% levels in 1998 to 40% by end 2006. Over1998-2006, while Industry registered CAGR of 3%, the Genericplayers outpaced industry posting CAGR of 6% during theperiod. Going ahead, given the opportunities and drop in rateof new molecule introduction by the Innovators, we expect theGeneric players to continue to outpace industry growth andincrease their market share in the overall pie. Historically, theglobal Agrichem has been logging in-line growth with globalGDP. Going ahead, over CY2009-11E, the global economy isexpected to grow at around 3-4%. Assuming this trend playsout in terms of growth for the Agrichem Industry and the samerate of Genericisation occurs, the Agrichemical Generic Industrycan log in growth of 6-8% during the period and garner marketshare of 44-45%.
Global Generic Play: UPL figures among the Top-5 generic
agrichemical players in the world, with a presence across major
markets like the US, EU, Latina America and India. Total
off-patent market is worth US $29bn, of which a mere US $16bn
is currently being catered to by the generic players. Furthermore,
61% of the same is controlled by the five largest generic players
including UPL. Further, given the high entry barriers by way of
high investments, entry of new players is also restricted. Thus,
amidst this scenario and on account of having a low cost base,
we believe that UPL enjoys an edge over competition and is
placed in sweet spot to leverage the upcoming opportunities in
the global Generic space.
United Phosphorus - Buy
Initiating Coverage
Price - Rs175Target Price - Rs228
Research Analyst - Sageraj Bariya
Outlook and Valuation
We expect UPL to emerge a key beneficiary of such favourabledevelopments. From being a purely India-centric player, UPLhas evolved to become a global entity particularly on the backof its inorganic initiatives complimented by the right acquisitionprice and strong management integration capability. Thus, webelieve that UPL is well placed to capitalise on the availableopportunities given its strong track record. Over FY2010-12E,we expect UPL to post 9% and 17% CAGR in Sales and PAT,respectively. UPL's Profitability is set to improve with EBITDAMargins improving owing to stable raw material prices, pickup in demand and restructuring of Cerexagri. We expect RoCEand RoE to improve from 15% and 19% in FY2010 to 19% and20% in FY2012E, respectively. At current levels of 10x FY2012E
Earnings, the stock is trading inexpensive vis-a-vis its global
(10.4x) and domestic peers (12x). We believe that UPL should
trade at a premium on account of better Profitability compared
to global peers and being a larger player compared to its
domestic peers. We Initiate Coverage on the stock, with aBuy and Target Price of Rs228 valuing the stock at 13xFY2012E EPS.
Source: Company, Angel Research, Price as on June 1, 2010;Note: Number adjusted for recent acquisition of brand from DuPont
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Net Revenue 4,931 5,460 6,235 6,758
% chg 35.4 10.7 14.2 8.4
Adj Profit 468 556 641 771
% chg 19.8 19.0 15.2 20.3
Adj. EPS (Rs) 10.6 12.7 14.6 17.5
EBITDA Margin (%) 19.7 18.9 19.5 20.5
P/E (x) 16.5 13.8 12.0 10.0
RoE (%) 19.0 19.3 19.1 19.7
RoCE (%) 17.1 15.0 16.4 18.6
P/BV (x) 2.9 2.5 2.1 1.8
EV/Sales (x) 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.7 8.3 7.8 6.6
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
June 5, 2010
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Auto Sector Update - May 2010
Remains on fast track
Auto Sales touched record highs in FY2010 on the back ofpositive consumer sentiment and partially due to advancedbuying at the dealers' end in anticipation of a price hike due tothe change in Emission norms (effective from April 1, 2010).The impressive performance by the Indian Auto companiescontinued with Maruti Suzuki and Hero Honda recording thehighest-ever monthly sales in May 2010. Strong growth acrosssegments continues with demand surpassing supply in a fewsegments with vendors' capacity being stretched. This is despitethe fact that, most auto majors hiked prices passing on thecost impact to the consumers owing to high commodity prices,change in Emission norms and Excise Duty hike. Pickup ineconomic activities has kept demand strong, albeit morenormalised across segments, considering demand may havepeaked in the past few months prior to the expected price hikespost the Excise Duty hike and spurt in Raw Material prices.
Tata Motors
TML registered 41.3% yoy growth in Total Sales to 56,779units (40,196) in May 2010.
The CV Segment recorded robust 42.5% yoy growth aidedby the M&HCV Segment registering substantial 57.6% yoygrowth.
Indica sales at 8,468 units, reported a decline of 15% yoy;Indigo recorded sales of 6,600 units, up 133% yoy.
The Sumo/Safari/Xenon XT range accounted for sales of2,708 units, a rise of 6% yoy.
The PV Segment reported a decent 39.4% yoy growth, withthe Nano selling 3,550 units.
Mahindra & Mahindra
M&M reported healthy sales, with a growth of 50.6% yoy to45,744 units (30,366).
The Tractor Segment grew by a healthy 27.8% yoy, aidedby a strong 29% yoy growth in Domestic Tractor Sales beforeMonsoon.
The Automotive Segment grew 68.9% yoy, led by growth of145.7% in the domestic Three-Wheeler Segment coupledwith the 408.8% yoy growth in the Auto-Export Segment.
The UV Segment including the Xylo, Bolero and the Pickupsreported strong 50.1% yoy growth, while the LCV Segmentreported 21.2% yoy growth.
Maruti Suzuki
Maruti witnessed record Sales in May 2010, registering27.9% yoy growth to 102,175units (79,872).
The A2 Segment grew 16.6% yoy; C Segment sales increasedby 70% yoy following launch of its new offering, Eeco.
Fundamental Focus |
The company reported 33.5% yoy increase in Exports to12,134 units (9,087).
During the month, Maruti Suzuki launched the all newWagonR, which aided growth of the A2 Segment.
The company registered 27.2% yoy and healthy 12.5% monincrease in the domestic market, while Exports sales declinedby around 6.8% mom.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 1: Tata Motors
Segment May YTD
2010 2009 %chg FY10 FY09 %chg
Total Sales 56,779 40,196 41.3 113,981 77,714 46.7
Total Tractor Sales 17,256 13,500 27.8 33,560 25,141 33.5
June 5, 2010
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Research Analyst - Vaishali Jajoo
Fundamental Focus |
Auto Sector Update - May 2010
Bajaj Auto (BAL)
BAL reported overall Sales growth of 61.6% yoy to 299,442units (185,341)
The Motorcycle Segment grew 63.3% led by its two majorbrands, Pulsar and Discover.
The bigger and sportier brands, Pulsar (75,974 units) andDiscover (107,076 units) represented 68% of Motorcyclesales.
The newly launched Discover-150 sold 12,377 unitsprimarily in the four states of Delhi, UP, WB, and AP.
Strong sales growth of BAL was also supported by theincrease in market share in the last 3-4 months.
The Three-wheeler Segment reported a healthy 52.5% yoygrowth to 29,954 units (19,644).
Hero Honda (HH)
HH sold 4,35,933 units (3,82,678), registering healthy yoygrowth of 13.9%, the highest-ever monthly sales volumefor the company.
Management indicated that in April 2010 it had shortageof batteries, which negatively impacted dispatches by around50,000 units. The problem was sorted out, to an extent, inMay 2010.
Overall growth was aided by healthy growth in Motorcyclesand a significant 65% yoy growth in the Scooter Segment(reported sales of over 24,000 in May 2010).
Outlook
We remain positive on the Indian Auto Sector. We estimateoverall Auto Volumes to register a CAGR of around 10% overFY2010-12E, aided by the improved economic environmentfor the sector. Over the longer term, comparatively lowpenetration levels, a healthy economic environment andfavourable demographics supported by higher per capitaincome levels are likely to help the Auto companies in sustainingtheir Top-line growth. However, increase in input cost andinterest rates are anticipated headwinds for the Volume andEarnings growth of the sector. We expect rising input costs torestrict Profitability, despite a positive view on demand. A higher-than-expected increase in input and Emission related costs willimpact Margins in FY2011E. Among the pack, we remainOverweight on M&M, Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors.
TVS Motor
TVS clocked 31.6% yoy growth in May to 156,980 units(119,281).
Domestic Sales grew 28.5% yoy to 138,934 units (108,146).
The Scooter Segment recorded 41.8% yoy growth to 31,884units (22,486).
The Motorcycle Segment grew by a 26.9% yoy to 67,906units (53,495).
Exports grew by a strong 62.1% to 18,046 units (11,135).
The newly launched TVS Jive and TVS Wego have supportedbetter Volume growth for the month.
Three-wheeler sales continued to excel in May 2010 as,with the company registering sales of 2,313 units (707), upa robust 227%.
Exhibit 6: TVS Motors
Source: Company, Angel Research
Segment May YTD
2010 2009 %chg FY10 FY09 %chg
Total Sales 156,980 119,281 31.6 304,146 233,070 30.5
Total Sales 435,933 382,678 13.9 807,585 753,253 7.2
June 5, 2010
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Fundamental Focus |
Performance Highlights
Net Sales up 45.5%, Volume growth supported outstandingperformance: For 4QFY2010, M&M clocked Net Sales ofRs5,305cr, up 45.5% yoy. This growth was aided by thesubstantial 49.9% yoy growth in Core Volumes, while averagerealisation per vehicle declined by around 2.7%. Strong volumesin the Automotive and Farm Equipment Divisions combinedwith lower Excise rate aided Top-line growth. The UV Segmentposted robust growth of 23.8% and continued to dominate theUV industry with a market share of 60.8% on the back of Xyloand Bolero, which continued to see good off take and aidedsubstantial growth in 4QFY2010 and FY2010. The TractorSegment also grew by a strong 61.8% yoy in 4QFY2010supplementing overall growth in Volumes.
Margins at 15.9% on dip in Raw Material and Staff costs:During 4QFY2010, M&M's EBITDA Margins witnessed 65bpyoy increase owing to lower Raw Material costs, which declinedby 619bp yoy and accounted for 62.2% of Sales (68.4% in4QFY2009). Operating Profit jumped 51.6% yoy, with Staffcosts declining by 245bp yoy owing to lower provision forgratuity during the quarter. Overall, the company recordeddecent improvement in Operating performance owing to thecost rationalisation measures initiated by it and partially dueto cost synergies arising post the PTL merger.
Net Profit at Rs570cr, Volume drives growth: M&M registeredNet Profit of Rs570cr (Rs418cr) during the quarter, which wasabove our expectation mainly due to the improvement in OPM.However, overall, the company reported 56bp decline in NPMfor the quarter on account higher tax provisioning. AdjustedProfit for 4QFY2010 stood at Rs573cr (Rs280cr), up 105% yoyowing to reduced Forex losses on a yoy basis.
Outlook and Valuation
M&M recorded strong volume growth in its Auto business inFY2010. The Farm Division posted a substantial improvementin volume and operating performance, after the PTL mergerwith M&M. We estimate Tractor volumes to register CAGR ofaround 5% (including Swaraj) over FY2010-12E. M&M's UVvolume growth continues to surprise positively in FY2010primarily due to the substantial 6% market share gain in theUV Segment to around 63%. The new Xylo and the established
Mahindra & Mahindra - Buy
4QFY2010 Result Update
Price - Rs572Target Price - Rs688
Target Price - Rs356
Research Analyst - Vaishali Jajoo
Source: Company, Angel Research, Price as on May 31, 2010;Note: Estimated EPS adjusted for FCCB interest cost
Key Financials
Net Sales 12,985 18,452 21,646 24,613
% chg 15.1 42.1 17.3 13.7
Adj. Net Profit 868 2,088 2,160 2,296
% chg (31.1) 140.7 3.5 6.3
OPM (%) 7.6 15.2 13.2 13.3
Adj. EPS (Rs) 15.0 36.1 37.3 39.7
P/E (x) 36.0 15.5 15.3 14.4
P/BV (x) 5.9 4.1 3.6 3.1
RoE (%) 22.1 22.6 24.8 22.1
RoCE (%) 8.5 24.0 20.8 21.1
EV/Sales (x) 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.1
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Scorpio and Bolero contributed to the robust UV volume growth.We have modeled 12% CAGR in UV volumes overFY2010-12E for M&M.
M&M also has majority stakes in various listed companies inother sectors (including Technology, Property and Finance).Investments in these companies constitute more than 50% ofM&M's Balance Sheet (Standalone). Moreover, the high growthpotential of M&M's subsidiaries is expected to unlock actualvalue of the stock over the years. Listing of its subsidiaries hasbeen supporting M&M's valuation in the recent past, and maycontinue to do so in the long term as well.
Owing to the better-than-expected 4QFY2010 performance,we upgrade our Adj. EPS estimates for FY2011E to Rs37.3(Rs35.8 earlier) and FY2012E to Rs39.7 (Rs38.8 earlier).At Rs572, M&M is trading at 15.3x FY2011E and 14.4x FY2012EEarnings. Our SOTP Target Price for M&M works out to Rs688,wherein its Core business fetches Rs474 and the value of itsinvestments works out to Rs214. We maintain a Buy on thestock.
June 5, 2010
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Technical Picks |
Bulls expected to ride the Headwinds
Sensex (17118) / Nifty (5136)
In our previous Weekly report, we had mentioned that as longas the price activity stays inside the upward slopping channelthere is a possibility that the indices could witness a bounce upto 17000 - 17250 / 5093 - 5165 levels. Further, we had alsomentioned that the markets are giving early signs of trendreversal and there is a probability of a higher top higher bottomto be formed on the Daily chart. The week began on a positivenote and then witnessed a correction up to 16318 / 4961 fromwhere the indices rebounded back to close near the highestpoint of the week thereby confirming a higher top higher bottomformation on the Daily chart.
The Sensex ended with net gains of 1.51%, whereas the Niftygained 1.36 % vis-à-vis the previous week.
Pattern Formation
On the Daily chart, we are now witnessing higher top higherbottom formation. This suggests that so long as the previoussignificant higher bottom is intact, further up move is expected(refer Exhibit 2).
On the Weekly chart, we reiterate our view that prices aretrading in an upward sloping channel (refer Exhibit 1) and areheaded in upward direction.
Future Outlook
In spite of weak close in the global markets on Friday, technicallylooking at the Daily charts of the benchmark indices, we are ofthe opinion that the indices are likely to test 17350 - 17500 /5200 -5250 levels. This view stands negated if,
Dow Jones Industrial Average
On Friday we witnessed a sharp sell - off in the Dow Jones onunfavorable unemployment data and on going concerns ofthe European debt crisis. The Dow is near to it crucial supportof 9777 levels and is showing a rounding top formation. Anyclose below 9777 levels will be a confirmation of the breakdownand will result in selling pressure, which may have an impactour markets (refer Exhibit 3).
Source: Falcon
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
on the downside, the higher bottom that is at 16550 / 4960levels is violated. Traders are advised to trade with positivebias in selective counters as long as the markets hold the higherbottom of 4960 level.
Traders holding long positions in Bank Nifty are advised tokeep stop loss of 9105 level.
Source: Falcon
Exhibit 3: Dow Jones Industrial Average chart
Source: Falcon
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
June 5, 2010
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Derivatives Review |
Short covering bounces unlikely; sell on rise
Nifty spot has closed at 5136 this week, against a close of 5067 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.20 to 1.40 levelsand the annualized Cost of Carry (CoC) is negative 5.53%. The Open Interest in Nifty Futures has increased by 6.69%.
The Nifty PCR has increased from 1.20 to 1.40 levels. Over-the-week most of the put options added significant open interest.The 5000 put added around 74,000 contracts, which is moreof buying and the strike has highest open interest. Marketcontinues to show resistance in the zone of 5100-5150 andthe 4800 is still a strong support level. We have seenbounce-back in the market due to short covering. So, markethas room to form fresh short positions. Therefore, we may notsee a meaningful bounce back from lower levels.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis Futures Annual Volatility Analysis
The Historical Volatility of the Nifty has decreased from 27.35%to 27.18%. IV of at the money options has decreased from22.00% to 21.00%. We expect IVs to rise from current levels.Some liquid counters where HV has increased significantly arePUNJLLOYD, UNIONBANK, ANDHRABANK, RCOM andTATACOMM. Stocks where HV has decreased are ABB,JINDALSAW, RNRL, RANBAXY and KOTAKBANK.
The June Future closed at a discount of 15.55 points as againsta discount of 25.55 points last week and July future closed ata discount of 19.70 points. Some liquid counters where CoCturned from negative to positive are ALBK, ONGC, DRREDDY,MARUTI and HDFC. Stocks where CoC turned from positive tonegative are EDUCOMP, IVRCLINFRA, TATAMOTORS and IDEA.
The total Open Interest of the market is Rs1,21,532cr, as againstRs99,703cr last week, and the Stock Futures' open interestincreased from Rs29,936cr to Rs33,068cr. Although TATASTEELhas support around Rs475, we expect it to correct further belowits support. Some liquid stocks where open interest hasincreased are UNIPHOS, SYNDIBANK, VIJAYABANK, ONGCand ALBK. Stocks where open interest has decreasedsignificantly are SCI, TECHM, RENUKA, CHAMBLFERT andHDIL.
Open Interest Analysis Cost-of-Carry Analysis
Derivative Strategy
BEP: Rs.140.00
Max. Risk: Unlimited Max. Profit: Rs.7000.00/-If RCOM continues to trade below BEP. If RCOM closes at Rs.150 on expiry.
NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry, if stock moves in the favorable direction and the time value decay.
Scrip : RCOM CMP : Rs.168.55 Lot Size : 50 Expiry Date (F&O) : 24th June, 2010
Expected PayoffView: Mildly Bearish
Rs. 170.00
Rs. 160.00
Rs. 150.00
Rs. 140.00
Rs. 130.00
Strategy: Ratio Put Spread
Buy/Sell Qty Scrip Strike Series Option RatePrice Type (Rs.)
Buy 700 RCOM 160 June Put 5.00
Sell 1400 RCOM 150 June Put 2.50
Closing Price ExpectedProfit/Loss
Rs. 0.00
Rs. 0.00
Rs. 10.00
Rs. 0.00
(Rs. 10.00)
HBEP: Rs.249.00/-LBEP: Rs.231.00/-
Max. Risk: Unlimited Max. Profit: Rs.9000.00/-If HINDUNILVR continues to trade below LBEP. If stock closes at Rs.240 on expiry.
NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry, if stock moves in the favorable direction and the time value decay.
Scrip : HINDUNILVR CMP : Rs.251.70 Lot Size : 1000 Expiry Date (F&O) : 24th June, 2010
Expected PayoffView: Mildly Bearish
Rs. 260.00
Rs. 250.00
Rs. 240.00
Rs. 230.00
Rs. 220.00
Strategy: Ratio Put Spread
Buy/Sell Qty Scrip Strike Series Option RatePrice Type (Rs.)
Buy 1000 HINDUNILVR 250 June Put 6.00
Sell 2000 HINDUNILVR 240 June Put 2.50
Closing Price ExpectedProfit/Loss
(Rs. 1.00)
(Rs. 1.00)
Rs. 9.00
(Rs. 1.00)
(Rs. 11.00)
June 5, 2010
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Mutual Fund Focus |
Recommended Balanced Fund- DSP BlackRock Balanced Fund - (G)
Top Sector AllocationScheme ObjectiveSeeks to generate long term capital appreciationand current income from a portfolio constitutedof equity and equity related securities as well asfixed income securities.
Fund AnalysisCurrently the scheme has 72% Equity exposureand 20% in Debt and holds 6.34% in cash &cash equivalents. It has highest exposure tosectors like Petroleum & Gas 10%, Banks 12%and Pharma 6%.Its current exposure tocompanies is high in SBI, Infosys & LIC Housing.The Scheme has outperformed its benchmarkindex. Currently fund has 43% exposure to largecap, 27% to midcap and minimal exposure insmall cap stocks. On Equity side fund managerhas maintained a good mix of Large & Mid stocksand Debt side focused on high credit quality andlow to medium maturity papers to balance riskand returns. High risk adjusted returns which are
indicated from a positive Sharpe Ratio. Positive Jensen Ratio shows Superior Stock,
Debt and Money market Instrumentsselection by Fund Manager.
Investment analysis indicates that the schemehas created wealth for investors.
Ideal for Investors
With volatility in debt market expected and equitymarket also trading at fair value, exposure tobalanced funds is a better option. Balanced fundshave more than 65% invested into equities.Hence, they offer tax savings as any capital gainover a one year period becomes tax free.
Investment Horizon - Long Term Risk Appetite - Medium
Scheme Details
Inception: 27th May 1999
Type: Open Ended Balanced Fund
Corpus: Rs. 678.31Crs (30-Apr-10)
Fund Manager: Apoorva Shah
Benchmark: Crisil Balanced Fund Index
Minimum Investment: Rs. 5000
Entry Load: Nil
Exit Load: Max 1.00 %
Latest NAV: Rs. 60.44 (03-June-2010)
52 Week High: Rs. 61.61 (30-Apr-10)
52 Week Low: Rs. 45.71 (13-Jul-09)
Asset Allocation (% of Net Asset)
Equity : 72.66 %
Debt : 20.99 %
Cash & Cash Equivalents: 6.34 %
Key Ratios
Expense Ratio: 2.04 (30-Apr-10)
Standard Deviation: 1.28
Sharpe: 0.0307
Jensen: 0.0393
Average Maturity: 314 Days
Ratios are on 3 Yrs Daily rolling return (CAGR) basis.Returns < 1 year Absolute & > =1 year CAGR basis.Returns & Ratios as on 3th June 2010Portfolio as on 30th April 2010* SIP Rs 5000 per month for the period 2007 to 2010
Market Capitalization (% of Net Asset)
Large Cap Stocks : 43.41 %
Mid Cap Stocks : 27.34 %
Small Cap Stocks : 1.75 %
Key Fund Analysis
Market Cap Focus: Over the past one yearthe fund manager has maintained averageholding of 42% in large cap, 26% in midcap and 1.87% in small cap stocks.
Sector Focus: Over past one year, fundmanager has maintained high averageexposure to sectors like Petroleum & Gas12%, Banks 8% and HFC 7.37%
Company Focus: Fund manager hasmaintained average exposure to companieslike LIC Housing Finance 4.98%, 2.66% inReliance Industries Ltd. and 2.47% in SBI Ltd.over the past one year.
Debt Focus: It has maintained average debtexposure of around 14.95% in last one yearand focused on high credit quality paperswith rating of AAA, AA+ and Sovereign.
Cash & Cash Equivalent: The averageexposure over the past one year has beenaround 13.23%.
Investment Analysis (Rs.)*
Total SIP Lump sumAmount Present PresentInvested Value Value
Scheme 180000 230801 246865
Sector % Net AssetsBanks 12.04Engineering and Capital Goods 3.17Fertilizers, Pesticides & Agrochemicals 3.60HFC 4.40Miscellaneous 3.33NBFC 8.48Petroleum, Gas and petrochemical 10.02Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 6.48Software and Consultancy Services 6.12Sovereign 6.65
Performance Analysis (% Returns)Top Company Holdings
Disclaimer: -Angel Broking Ltd is not responsible for any error or inaccuracy or any losses suffered on account of information contained in this report. Data source is ICRA MFI Explorer. Mutual Fund
investments are subjected to market risk. Please read the Statement of Additional Information and Scheme Information document carefully before investing.
Equity (% ) of Net Assets
Infosys Technologies Ltd. 3.93
State Bank of India 3.84
Reliance Industries Ltd. 2.59
HDFC Bank Ltd. 2.46
Cairn India Ltd. 2.07
Debt
LIC Housing Finance Ltd. 3.88
8.2% GOI (2022) 3.74
Shriram Transport Finance 3.74
HPCL 2.97
Barclays Invests & Loans (I)Ltd. 2.26
June 5, 2010
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Mutual Fund Focus |
Recommended Balanced Fund- Reliance RSF Balanced - G
Top Sector AllocationScheme ObjectiveThe primary investment objective of this Optionis to seek capital appreciation and/or to generateconsistent returns by actively investing in equity/ equity related securities.
Fund AnalysisCurrently the scheme has 64% Equity exposure,Debt 3.14% exposure and holds 32% in Cash &cash equivalents. It has highest exposure tosectors like Banks 39.94%, FI 13.19% andPetroleum and Gas 7.02% .Its current exposureto companies is highest in Reliance InfrastructureLtd., SBI, and Power Finance Corporation Ltd.The Scheme has consistently outperformed itsbenchmark index and its category averagereturns. The fund manager has followed astrategy to maintain a good mix of large & midstocks and moved in & out from cash & cashequivalents (money market instruments) tobalance risk and return.
High risk adjusted returns which areindicated from a positive Sharpe Ratio.
Positive Jensen Ratio shows Superior Stockselection by Fund Manager.
Investment analysis indicates that the schemehas created wealth for investors.
Ideal for Investors
With volatility in debt market expected and equitymarket also trading at fair value, exposure tobalanced funds is a better option. Balanced fundshave around 65% invested into equities. Hence,they offer tax savings as any capital gain over aone year period becomes tax free.
Investment Horizon - Long Term Risk Appetite - Medium
Scheme Details
Inception: 8th June 2005
Type: Open Ended Balanced Fund
Corpus: Rs. 486.62 crs. (30-Apr-10)
Fund Manager: Omprakash and Arpit
Benchmark: Crisil Balanced Fund Index
Minimum Investment: Rs. 500
Entry Load: Nil
Exit Load: Max 1.00 %
Latest NAV: Rs 20.60 (03-June-10)
52 Week High: Rs 21.11 (26-Apr-10)
52 Week Low: Rs 15.23 (13-Jul-09)
Asset Allocation (% of Net Asset)
Equity : 64.70%
Debt : 3.14
Cash & Cash Equivalents : 32.15 %
Key Ratios
Expense Ratio: 2.29 (30-Apr-10)
Standard Deviation: 1.50
Sharpe: 0.045
Jensen: 0.067
Ratios are on 3 Yrs Daily rolling return (CAGR) basis.Returns < 1 year Absolute & > =1 year CAGR basis.Returns & Ratios as on 3th June 2010Portfolio as on 30th April 2010* SIP Rs 5000 per month for the period 2007 to 2010
Market Capitalization (% of Net Asset)
Large Cap Stocks : 51.66 %
Mid Cap Stocks : 9.40 %
Small Cap Stocks : 1.08%
Key Fund Analysis
Market Cap Focus: Over the past one yearthe fund manager has maintained averageequity exposure of 48.83 % in large capstocks, 15.73% in mid cap stocks and noexposure to small cap stocks.
Sector Focus: Over past one year, fundmanager has maintained high averageexposure to sectors like Banking 11.72%,Petroleum & Gas 8.33%, Software andConsultancy Services 6.91%.
Company Focus: Fund manager hasmaintained average exposure to companieslike Infosys Technologies Ltd. 4.08%, SBI3.14% and ONGC Ltd.2.85% over the pastone year.
Debt and Cash & Cash Equivalent: Thefund manager has maintained high exposuremainly in Cash and Cash equivalents(including Money Market Instruments) to theextent of average 33.34% for the past oneyear. Exposure in Debt is very minimal.
Investment Analysis (Rs.)*
Total SIP Lump sumAmount Present PresentInvested Value Value
Scheme 180000 257968 300372
Sector % Net AssetsBanks 39.94FI 13.19Petroleum and Gas 7.02Utilities - Gas, Power 6.29Auto & Auto Ancillaries 5.31Construction and Infrastructure 5.29Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 4.73Software and Consultancy Services 4.11Media and Entertainment 3.12Telecom Services 3.10
Performance Analysis (% Returns)
Disclaimer: -Angel Broking Ltd is not responsible for any error or inaccuracy or any losses suffered on account of information contained in this report. Data source is ICRA MFI Explorer. Mutual Fund
investments are subjected to market risk. Please read the Statement of Additional Information and Scheme Information document carefully before investing.
Top Company HoldingsCompany Name % of Net Assets
Equity
Reliance Infrastructure Ltd. 3.50
State Bank of India 3.33
Power Finance Corporation Ltd. 3.17
Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. 3.12
Bharti Airtel Ltd. 3.06
Debt
Rural Electrification Corporation 3.14
Others
State Bank of Mysore 10.98
IDFC. Ltd. 5.11
Bank of India 4.8
Central Bank of India 4.10
June 5, 2010
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Commodities Center |
Euro
Is the Euro headed for a total collapse?
The Euro slipped 2.3% in the last week marking a weekly lowof 1.1953. Continuing economic concerns in the Euro Zoneled to the decline in currency. Sovereign debt worries in theEuro Zone haunt financial market sentiments. Despite somepositive news on support to the ailing European countries inthe form of a $1 trillion rescue package the Euro continues totrade southwards. The impact of the debt crisis on the globaleconomy is being introspected and this has led to risk aversionacross the globe. Demand for higher-yielding and riskierinvestment assets has generally declined as investors havebecome cautious.
Euro Weekly Price Chart
Source: Telequote
In the month of May, the Euro did receive some support afterChina's foreign-exchange regulator affirmed its commitmentto investing in Europe. This led to hopes of improvement in thecurrent economic scenario of the Euro Zone. But soon theoptimism faded as the long-term impact of the $1 trillion bailoutpackage coupled with slowdown in economic growth in theEuropean region also came under scanner.
The European Debt Crisis………
Concerns of a sovereign debt crisis started developing in early2010 as countries like Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugalfaced huge budget deficits. This led to fears over risinggovernment deficits and debt levels across the globe. The recentevents in Greece have aggravated the situation in the financialmarkets and the Euro Zone countries and the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF) agreed to €110 billion loan for Greece.But this loan has come along with a package of harsh austeritymeasures which Greece has had to adopt. On the back ofthese ongoing economic issues, the European policymakersand the IMF agreed upon a comprehensive rescue package
worth $1 trillion which is aimed at ensuring financial stabilityacross Europe.
The month of May has been eventful as the financial marketskept a check on the happenings and developments on theEuro Zone front. Greece has witnessed major protest by citizensagainst the austerity measures. Protest by way of strike led to aglobal sell-off in equities as the general nationwide strike inGreece turned violent. Such poor has been the capability ofthe Euro Zone to handle its debt crisis that the global financialmarkets witnessed a downside pressure and markets shiveredon expectations that this will lead to another round of recession.
EU Emergency Measures
In order to prevent the situation from getting bad to worse, theEuropean Union (EU) and the IMF have carved out anemergency rescue package of up to €750 billion ($1 trillion) inorder to control the Greece's crisis from spreading. TheEuropean package has been the biggest government rescuesince the G-20 leaders moved to stabilize markets after thecollapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. But despitethe announcement of this rescue package, the Euro has slumpedto a more than a four-year low of 1.2109.
Following are the three components of theEU-IMF rescue package:
The first part includes a €60 billion ($70 billion) stabilizationfund. This fund will be provided to the Euro Zone memberswho are struggling to finance its debts because of high interestrates demand by the financial markets. The second part of theemergency fund includes government-backed loans worth €440billion ($570 billion). These loans will be issued via a SpecialPurpose Vehicle (SPV). The final part of the emergency fundconsists of €250 billion ($284 billion) with additionalcontribution from the IMF.
Contribution of Euro Zone countries to total EU GDPCountries % Contribution to EU GDPGermany 26.90France 21.00Italy 16.90Spain 11.80Greece 2.60
June 5, 2010
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Commodities Center |
Euro
Systemic risk continue as $1 trillion package fails tosupport Euro
Debt crisis in the Euro Zone is expected to be as serious as thecredit crunch in the US. Hence, even after a $1 trillion rescuepackage to the ailing European countries systemic risk is notcorrected. Despite the announcement of this rescue package,the Euro continued to decline and slumped to a four-year low.Austerity measures in the Euro Zone have become rigorous asSpain has unveiled the biggest cuts in the last 30 years andPortugal has also announced to reduce wages and raise taxes.
Spain's unemployment rate rose above 20% for the first time inmore than a decade. The jobless rate rose to 20.1% in the firstquarter from 18.8% in the previous three months. A 5% cut inpublic salaries was also announced by the Spanish PrimeMinister this month. Retail sales volumes in the 16-nation eurozone were flat in March. German manufacturing purchasingmanagers index fell to 58.3 in May from 61.5 in April, athree-month low, and the services PMI also dropped to athree-month low of 53.7 vs. 55.2 in April.
Despite this huge rescue package of $1 trillion, what triggereda downside in European equities was the short-selling banimposed by Germany in May. Germany's market regulatorbanned investors from naked short sales for 10 banks andinsurers, as well as naked credit- default swaps on euro-areagovernment bonds starting May 19. The decisions to ban shortselling on these instruments led to concerns amongst investorsthat the crisis may get severe in the future.
Spain fights to survive
Spain is the fourth-largest economy in the Euro Zone and pooreconomic prospects in the country could lead to a majorfinancial disaster. High level of household and corporate debthas left the country in an uncompetitive state. Size of Spain'seconomy is four times bigger than Greece and more debtworries in Spain could derail economic recovery in the EuroZone.
Poor economic scenario in the European countries has createdhavoc as the political abilities of the countries have also comeunder scanner. Spain is especially finding it difficult to keep agrip on power as the country is caught between citizensopposing austerity measures on one hand and on the otherhand investors demand budget cuts and more flexible labormarkets.
The Spanish government does not have a parliamentarymajority and this leads to delay in the timing for every measurein this testing time. The Popular Party in Spain has voted againstspending cuts last week. But the situation in Portugal is differentas the main rival parties have recently agreed on an austeritypackage. The Spanish government's move is being judged atevery level as it promises to slash the public deficit from 11.2%of gross domestic product in 2009 to the EU guideline of 3%by 2013.
Fundamental Outlook
Public finances pose the biggest threat to the Euro Zone andthe ECB said in its latest Financial Stability Report that predictionsof further potential write-downs remain. Banks in the Euro Zonesuffer considerable loan losses in 2010 and 2011 and thiscould amount to a further €195bn (£165bn) in write-downs.May has turned out to be the worst month for the Europeancurrency and equity markets in the year 2010. These concernsare expected to remain and lead to downside in the Euro.
We expect the Euro to weaken in the coming week and trade inthe range of 1.1690 and 1.2490.
Major economic data releases in June which will help to setthe trend in the markets are Federal Reserve Chairman BenBernanke's speech, ECB Press Conference, US, Retail Sales,Consumer Confidence and FOMC Statement which will help toset the tome in the global financial markets.
European Equities Performance in May 2010Indices May April Points % chg
FTSE 5188 5553 (365) (6.6)
DAX 5964 6135 (171) (2.8)
CAC 3507 3816 (309) (8.1)Source: Telequote
June 5, 2010
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Commodities Center |
MCX AUGUST Gold MCX July Silver
Commodity Technical Report
MCX June Copper MCX June Crude
Last week, Silver prices opened the week at (Rs.29240/kg),initially moved sharply higher but found good resistance atRs.29755. Later prices fell sharply lower, breaking both thesupports to make a low of 28130. Silver finally ended the weekwith a huge loss of Rs.841 to close at Rs.28430 as comparedwith previous week's close of Rs.29271.
Trend : Sideways
Key Levels For Week :
S1 - 28050 S2 - 27500 R1 - 28850 R2 - 29650
Last week, Gold prices opened the week at (Rs.18485 /10 grams), initially moved sharply higher, but found strongresistance at Rs.18850 levels. Later prices fell sharply lowertowards 18260 levels. Gold finally ended the week with a gainof Rs.330 to close at Rs.18797 as compared with previousweek's close of Rs.18467.
Trend : Up
Last week, Copper prices opened the week at (Rs.321.50/kg),initially made a high of 322.50 then sharply fell lower breakingboth the supports, made a low of 291.80. Copper finally endedthe week with a huge loss of Rs 28.65 to close at Rs.292.45 ascompared with previous week's close of Rs.321.05.
Trend : Down
Key Levels For Week :
S1 - 283 S2 - 271 R1 - 302 R2 - 313
MCX COPPER Weekly Chart
Source: Telequote
Last week, Crude prices opened the week at (Rs.3461/barrel),initially moved higher but found strong resistance at Rs.3539level. Later prices fell sharply lower breaking the initial supportand made a low of Rs.3362. Crude finally ended the weekwith a loss of Rs.94 to close at Rs.3366 as compared withprevious week's close of Rs.3460.
Trend : Down
Key Levels For Week :
S1 - 3265 S2 - 3130 R1 - 3420 R2 - 3570
MCX CRUDEOIL Weekly Chart
Source: Telequote
Key Levels For Week :
S1 - 18600 S2 - 18250 R1 - 18920 R2 - 19150
MCX GOLD Weekly Chart
Source: Telequote
Recommendation: Buy MCX Gold August between 18650-18620with strict Stop-loss below 18400 for a Target of 18920 and then 19100
Recommendation: Sell MCX Copper June in the range of300-303 with strict stop-loss above 313 Targeting 283 then 278.
MCX SILVER Weekly Chart
Source: Telequote
Recommendation: Sell MCX Crude June in the range of 3410-3430 with strict stop-loss above 3520 Targeting 3270 then 3180.
Sr. Technical Analyst (Commodities) - Samson P
Weekly Review
Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)
Ratings (Returns) :
Disclaimer
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