Weekly review 24-04-10

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

WWWWWeekly Revieweekly Revieweekly Revieweekly Revieweekly ReviewApril 24, 2010

Markets consolidateThe Indian stock markets gained ground during the current week of trade,amidst sessions marked by high volatility, with both the benchmark indices,the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty, ending higher by 0.6% and 0.8%,respectively. The BSE Mid- and Small-cap indices also ended in the green,but continued to outperform their large cap counterparts, with both theindices gaining 1.5% and 2.0%, respectively. At an all important meet, theReserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a small increase in the repo rate,reverse repo rate and CRR by 25bp each, against an expected 25-50bphike at the monetary policy review. Moreover, corporate India continued topost a good set of numbers. On the sectoral front, most of the indices endedin the green, with the BSE Bankex gaining the maximum; however, the BSEMetal and IT index ended in the red.

BSE Bankex: zooms ahead

The BSE Bankex outperformed the Sensex this week, ending up by 4.9%, asagainst a 0.6% rise for the Sensex. A large part of this outperformance wasdriven by a strong movement in SBI, which was up on the speculation that itmay get an extension of 6 months to meet the provision coverage of 70%.Axis Bank was up by 7.2% on the back of strong operating performancereported during 4QFY2010. On April 20, RBI's 25bp hike in key ratesprovided a sentimental comfort to banking stocks, as there was a fear of apossible 50bp hike in the CRR. ICICI Bank, Federal Bank, IOB and OBC(among others) gave returns in the range of 4 to 6%. WWWWWe maintain oure maintain oure maintain oure maintain oure maintain ourpositive outlook on the sectorpositive outlook on the sectorpositive outlook on the sectorpositive outlook on the sectorpositive outlook on the sector, and retain HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis, and retain HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis, and retain HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis, and retain HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis, and retain HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, AxisBank and SBI as our top picks.Bank and SBI as our top picks.Bank and SBI as our top picks.Bank and SBI as our top picks.Bank and SBI as our top picks.

Inside This WeeklyRBI's FY2011 Annual Monetary PRBI's FY2011 Annual Monetary PRBI's FY2011 Annual Monetary PRBI's FY2011 Annual Monetary PRBI's FY2011 Annual Monetary Policy Review:olicy Review:olicy Review:olicy Review:olicy Review: The 25bp hikes by the RBI inthe key rates were in line with our expectations as we do not believe thaturgent monetary tightening is required at this juncture. One, excludinginflation related to crops and fuel which is basically supply-driven, otherinflation is so far comfortable at 4.7%. Secondly, on account of the highcurrent account deficit, forex reserves have not been increasing much overthe last couple of quarters, due to which there is no situation of surgingliquidity that needs to be sterilized.

4QFY2010 Result Reviews:4QFY2010 Result Reviews:4QFY2010 Result Reviews:4QFY2010 Result Reviews:4QFY2010 Result Reviews:

Axis Bank:Axis Bank:Axis Bank:Axis Bank:Axis Bank: Axis Bank reported a strong Net Profit growth of 31.5% yoy,which was ahead of our expectations, on the back of lower-than-estimatedprovisions for NPAs. The core business growth recorded a strongimprovement, with advances and deposits growth of 27.9% and 20.4%,respectively. WWWWWe maintain a Buy on the stock.e maintain a Buy on the stock.e maintain a Buy on the stock.e maintain a Buy on the stock.e maintain a Buy on the stock.

RILRILRILRILRIL: : : : : Company declared below expectation results due to lower-than-expectedRefining margins of US $7.5/bbl as against our expectation ofUS $8.5/bbl. On account of strong growth in Profitability over the next coupleof years, improvement in GRMs, positive news flows from the E&P Segmentand inorganic growth prospects, we maintain a Buy on the stock. we maintain a Buy on the stock. we maintain a Buy on the stock. we maintain a Buy on the stock. we maintain a Buy on the stock.

Note: Stock Prices are as on Report release date; Refer all Detailed Reports on Angel website

Key Movements

Indices April April Weekly YTD

16, 10 23, 10 (% chg)

BSE 30 17,591 17,694 0.6 1.3

NSE 5263 5304 0.8 2.0

Nasdaq 2,481 2,530 2.0 11.5

DOW 11,019 11,204 1.7 7.4

Nikkei 11,102 10,914 (1.7) 3.5

HangSeng 21,865 21,244 (2.8) (2.9)

Straits Times 3,007 2,988 (0.6) 3.1

Shanghai Composite 3,130 2,984 (4.7) (9.0)

KLSE Composite 1,333 1,337 0.3 5.0

Jakarta Composite 2,879 2,925 1.6 15.4

KOSPI Composite 1,734 1,737 0.1 3.2

Indices April April Weekly YTD

16, 10 23, 10 (% chg)

BANKEX 10,554 11,074 4.9 10.4

BSE AUTO 7,588 7,771 2.4 4.5

BSE IT 5,500 5,381 (2.2) 3.8

BSE PSU 8,902 9,031 1.4 (5.3)

FII activity during (Rs crore)the Week Cash Futures NetAs on (Equity) Activity

Apr 16 364 (1,339) (975)

Apr 19 (476) (948) (1,424)

Apr 20 102 155 256

Apr 21 265 161 426

Apr 22 1,748 (98) 1,650

NetNetNetNetNet 2,002 2,002 2,002 2,002 2,002 (2,069) (2,069) (2,069) (2,069) (2,069) (67) (67) (67) (67) (67)

Mutual Fund activity (Equity) (Rs crore)As on Purchases Sales Net Activity

Apr 16 520 803 (284)

Apr 19 411 531 (120)

Apr 20 829 727 102

Apr 21 634 648 (15)

Apr 22 940 692 248

NetNetNetNetNet 3,333 3,333 3,333 3,333 3,333 3,402 3,402 3,402 3,402 3,402 (69) (69) (69) (69) (69)

April 24, 2010

For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 2

FFFFFundamental Fundamental Fundamental Fundamental Fundamental Focus |ocus |ocus |ocus |ocus |

Key Highlights

Hikes Repo, Reverse Repo and CRR by 25 bp each toHikes Repo, Reverse Repo and CRR by 25 bp each toHikes Repo, Reverse Repo and CRR by 25 bp each toHikes Repo, Reverse Repo and CRR by 25 bp each toHikes Repo, Reverse Repo and CRR by 25 bp each to5.25%, 3.75% and 6.0%, respectively5.25%, 3.75% and 6.0%, respectively5.25%, 3.75% and 6.0%, respectively5.25%, 3.75% and 6.0%, respectively5.25%, 3.75% and 6.0%, respectivelyAnnounces indicative projections of 20% Credit GrowthAnnounces indicative projections of 20% Credit GrowthAnnounces indicative projections of 20% Credit GrowthAnnounces indicative projections of 20% Credit GrowthAnnounces indicative projections of 20% Credit Growthand 18% Deposit Growth during FY2011Eand 18% Deposit Growth during FY2011Eand 18% Deposit Growth during FY2011Eand 18% Deposit Growth during FY2011Eand 18% Deposit Growth during FY2011EAnnounces GDP Growth forecast of 8% for FY2011EAnnounces GDP Growth forecast of 8% for FY2011EAnnounces GDP Growth forecast of 8% for FY2011EAnnounces GDP Growth forecast of 8% for FY2011EAnnounces GDP Growth forecast of 8% for FY2011EPlaces Baseline projection for WPI inflation at 5.5% forPlaces Baseline projection for WPI inflation at 5.5% forPlaces Baseline projection for WPI inflation at 5.5% forPlaces Baseline projection for WPI inflation at 5.5% forPlaces Baseline projection for WPI inflation at 5.5% forFY2011EFY2011EFY2011EFY2011EFY2011EAllows banks to classify investments in infrastructure bondsAllows banks to classify investments in infrastructure bondsAllows banks to classify investments in infrastructure bondsAllows banks to classify investments in infrastructure bondsAllows banks to classify investments in infrastructure bondsunder Held for Maturity (HTM) categoryunder Held for Maturity (HTM) categoryunder Held for Maturity (HTM) categoryunder Held for Maturity (HTM) categoryunder Held for Maturity (HTM) category

The 25bp hikes by the RBI in the Repo, Reverse Repo and CRRwere in line with our expectations as we do not believe thaturgent monetary tightening is required at this juncture. One,excluding inflation related to crops and fuel which is basicallysupply-driven, other inflation is so far within comfortable levelsof about 4.7%. Secondly, on account of the high current accountdeficit, forex reserves have not been increasing much over thelast couple of quarters, due to which there is no situation ofsurging liquidity that needs to be sterilized.

Inflation becoming gradually more broad-based: Inflation becoming gradually more broad-based: Inflation becoming gradually more broad-based: Inflation becoming gradually more broad-based: Inflation becoming gradually more broad-based: Specifically,on the inflation-front, although crop-related inflation remainedthe main cause of the high headline WPI number of 9.9% atthe end of March 2010, contributing 65% of total inflation, thiswas lower than the 70% contribution a month ago. Apart fromthis, a 16.4% yoy increase in oil prices also contributed 11% tototal inflation. However, inflation is evidently becoming morebroad-based, with other product prices rising 4.7% yoy by March2010 vs. 3.6% yoy by February 2010, increasing theircontribution to overall inflation from 18% to 24%.

M3 Growth could accelerate further:M3 Growth could accelerate further:M3 Growth could accelerate further:M3 Growth could accelerate further:M3 Growth could accelerate further: Moreover, although growthin money supply is sedate at present, it is expected to increasegoing forward, given that domestic credit demand is revivingand is expected to reach 20%+ yoy growth in FY2011E evenas the large government borrowing for FY2011E is set to resumein the coming first half of FY2011E.

Hence, frontHence, frontHence, frontHence, frontHence, front-----ended rate hikes to anchor inflationaryended rate hikes to anchor inflationaryended rate hikes to anchor inflationaryended rate hikes to anchor inflationaryended rate hikes to anchor inflationaryexpectations:expectations:expectations:expectations:expectations: RBI will therefore remain alert for any increase ininflationary pressures so as to anchor inflationary expectations.Already, policy rates are up 200bp in the first two months ofthe current monetary tightening cycle (taking Repo, Reverse Repo

RBI's FY2011 Annual Monetary Policy Review

Rate hikes in line with expectations

Research Analyst - Vaibhav Agrawal/Amit Rane

and CRR cumulatively for comparison purposes) as against justa 75bp increase in the first twelve months of the previous cyclefrom September 2004 to September 2005. We expect furtherhikes in each of the policy rates, which could be up to 150 bpon the Repo and Reverse Repo front and 100bp on the CRRfront by the next Annual policy. This would imply a 200bp ofhikes in each of the policy rates within the first 14 months ofthis cycle. But this should be seen in the context of the above-mentioned need for front-ending the tightening process as wellas the massive 400bp+ reduction in both the Repo rate andthe CRR in the 15 months following the Lehman-crisis.

Maintain positive outlook on the Banking sectorMaintain positive outlook on the Banking sectorMaintain positive outlook on the Banking sectorMaintain positive outlook on the Banking sectorMaintain positive outlook on the Banking sector,,,,,especially large banks: especially large banks: especially large banks: especially large banks: especially large banks: Given the pace of recovery in privatesector credit demand, liquidity has declined and the lendingand deposit rates are likely to start rising going forward. Forthe Banking Sector as a whole, in our view, rising interest rates,consistent with the imminent revival in GDP growth, are not anegative and would be outweighed by an acceleration in CoreEarnings growth. That said, large banks with a strong CASAratio and lower duration investment books will be relativelybetter placed in a rising interest rate environment.

Source: Company, Angel Research

High CASA, Low Investment Key in rising rate scenario

Casa Ratio (LHS) Invt/Deposit ratio (LHS) Invt duration (RHS)

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

HD

FCBK

AXSB

SBI

ICIC

IBK

PNB

BO

B

DEN

BK

BO

I

UN

BK

IND

BK

IOB

FED

BK

OBC

SIB

CRPB

K

(%) (Years)

Accordingly, we maintain our preference for the large privatebanks viz., HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank as well asSBI in the PSU space, all of which we believe are very well-positioned for the revival in GDP growth due to large capitaladequacy, substantial network expansion and superior customerproposition that is expected to drive increase in Credit, CASAand Fee marketshare, leading to superior earnings growth overFY2011-12E.

April 24, 2010


All India Performance HighlightsMar -10Mar -10Mar -10Mar -10Mar -10 Mar -09Mar -09Mar -09Mar -09Mar -09 YYYYYoY(%)oY(%)oY(%)oY(%)oY(%) FY10FY10FY10FY10FY10 FY09FY09FY09FY09FY09 YYYYYoY(%)oY(%)oY(%)oY(%)oY(%)

Production

(mn tonnes) 19.59 18.11 8.2 201.07 181.41 10.8

Despatches

(mn tonnes) 19.64 18.13 8.3 200.22 181.01 10.6Source: CMA, Angel Research


Southern Surge

All-India cement despatches up 8.3% yoy in March 2010: All-India cement despatches up 8.3% yoy in March 2010: All-India cement despatches up 8.3% yoy in March 2010: All-India cement despatches up 8.3% yoy in March 2010: All-India cement despatches up 8.3% yoy in March 2010: TheCement despatches were up by a healthy 8.3% yoy in March2010, with the southern region leading the way with a 10.1%yoy growth. The impressive performance in the southern regionwas on account of a good pickup in demand, aided by theincreased demand from the infrastructure segment. TheNorthern and western regions also clocked robust growth ratesof 8.8% and 8.9%, respectively.

All-India Capacity Utilisation at 96% in March 2010:All-India Capacity Utilisation at 96% in March 2010:All-India Capacity Utilisation at 96% in March 2010:All-India Capacity Utilisation at 96% in March 2010:All-India Capacity Utilisation at 96% in March 2010: The All-India capacity utilisation for March 2010 stood at a robust 96%,as construction activities peaked all over the country prior tothe arrival of the monsoon in June. However, the overallutilisation was down by 600bp yoy, on account of an increasein capacity.

PPPPPrices increase at a higher clip in the southern region:rices increase at a higher clip in the southern region:rices increase at a higher clip in the southern region:rices increase at a higher clip in the southern region:rices increase at a higher clip in the southern region: Cementprices have gone up by Rs20-25 per bag in the southern regionduring the month of March 2010. Despite sluggishness indemand, the region has witnessed price hikes, primarily due toproduction cuts in Andhra Pradesh as a result of powershortages. Prices remained stable in the northern region, asthe Commonwealth games-related construction activities arecoming to a conclusion. Prices dropped by Rs10-15 per bag inthe central region, due to sluggish demand accompanied byan increase in supply. The prices have increased by Rs7-10 perbag in the western region, on account of strong demand fromthe housing segment.

TTTTTop Pop Pop Pop Pop Performers:erformers:erformers:erformers:erformers: Jaiprakash Associates was the top performeramong the major cement players. The company posted a 57.7%yoy jump in sales volumes in March to 1.23mn tonnes (0.78mntonnes), on account of healthy demand and capacity addition.Madras Cements delivered a robust 36.3% growth indespatches, despite the sluggishness in demand from thesouthern region, as the company's newly installed plantstabilised during the month. India Cements also delivered arobust 26.2% yoy growth in despatches for March 2010 to 1.04mn tonnes, while Dalmia Cements registered a 15.2% yoygrowth in despatches to 0.41mn tonnes, aided by a 2.5mtpacapacity addition during FY2010.

Cement Sector

Monthly Update - March 2010

Research Analyst - Rupesh Sankhe/V. Srinivasan

Outlook

The Indian Cement companies have been reporting strong

Volume sales since the past few months. The additional capacity

that has come on stream has enabled most of the cement

manufacturers to increase the total cement production. We

expect the all-India demand to continue to remain robust, but

accelerated capacity additions and stablisation of new capacities

are expected to put pressure on prices after May 2010. The

cement prices rose across India in March 2010, except in the

central region. Prices in Hyderabad witnessed significant upward

movements, due to power shortages and, subsequently, lower

production. We expect prices to remain firm till May 2010 on

account of the demand arising from the Commonwealth

Games, infrastructure spending and recovery in the Urban

Housing Segment. However, we estimate a correction in prices

from June 2010, as new capacity addition over the last few

months exerts pressure and with the conclusion of the peak

construction period. WWWWWe are Neutral on Ae are Neutral on Ae are Neutral on Ae are Neutral on Ae are Neutral on ACC, Ambuja,CC, Ambuja,CC, Ambuja,CC, Ambuja,CC, Ambuja,

Grasim,Ultratech and India Cements, as they are fairly priced.Grasim,Ultratech and India Cements, as they are fairly priced.Grasim,Ultratech and India Cements, as they are fairly priced.Grasim,Ultratech and India Cements, as they are fairly priced.Grasim,Ultratech and India Cements, as they are fairly priced.

WWWWWe continue to remain Pe continue to remain Pe continue to remain Pe continue to remain Pe continue to remain Positive on Madras Cements and JKositive on Madras Cements and JKositive on Madras Cements and JKositive on Madras Cements and JKositive on Madras Cements and JK

LLLLLakshmi Cement, due to their attractive valuations (based onakshmi Cement, due to their attractive valuations (based onakshmi Cement, due to their attractive valuations (based onakshmi Cement, due to their attractive valuations (based onakshmi Cement, due to their attractive valuations (based on

the EV/Tthe EV/Tthe EV/Tthe EV/Tthe EV/Tonne and EV/EBITDonne and EV/EBITDonne and EV/EBITDonne and EV/EBITDonne and EV/EBITDA multiples).A multiples).A multiples).A multiples).A multiples).

April 24, 2010



Regulatory Boost

The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) hasannounced provisional tariffs for GAIL's old (HBJ-GREP-DVPLpipeline) and new pipelines (DVPL/GREP up-gradation) underthe PNGRB Regulation 2008 - determination of natural gaspipeline tariffs. Surprisingly, PNGRB's tariffs are different forthe old pipelines and the newer expansion apart from beingmuch higher than our estimates. Hence, we are revising ourtariff estimates from Rs849/scm to Rs917/scm for FY2011Eand Rs1,068/scm for FY2012E respectively. Similarly, ourEarnings estimates also stand increased at Rs28.4/share andRs33.7/share for FY2011E and FY2012E, respectively.Consequently, we are revising our Twe are revising our Twe are revising our Twe are revising our Twe are revising our Target Parget Parget Parget Parget Price to Rs553 (Rs458)rice to Rs553 (Rs458)rice to Rs553 (Rs458)rice to Rs553 (Rs458)rice to Rs553 (Rs458)and upgrade the stock from Accumulate to Buyand upgrade the stock from Accumulate to Buyand upgrade the stock from Accumulate to Buyand upgrade the stock from Accumulate to Buyand upgrade the stock from Accumulate to Buy.....

PNGRB declares provisional tariffs for GAIL's key pipelines:PNGRB declares provisional tariffs for GAIL's key pipelines:PNGRB declares provisional tariffs for GAIL's key pipelines:PNGRB declares provisional tariffs for GAIL's key pipelines:PNGRB declares provisional tariffs for GAIL's key pipelines:PNGRB has determined tariffs of Rs25.46/mmbtu (US $0.57/mmbtu assuming Rs45/US$)) for HBJ-GREP-DVPL as againstthe current tariffs of Rs28.48/mmbtu (US $0.63/mmbtu), adecline of 10.6%. The revision in tariffs is on retrospective basiseffective November 20, 2008. Similarly, the Board has alsofixed tariffs of Rs53.65/mmbtu (US $1.2/mmbtu) for DVPL/GREPup-gradation, 88.4% higher over current HBJ tariffs. As PNGRBhas provided for tariffs on provisional basis, the same is likelyto be finalised after considering the actual costs and data atthe end of the financial year on the basis of audited accounts.

KKKKKey issues to track going ahead:ey issues to track going ahead:ey issues to track going ahead:ey issues to track going ahead:ey issues to track going ahead: We are positively surprised bythe PNGRB's announcement. However, we believe that certainissues needs to be watched going ahead. It would be worthnoticing how the Power and Fertiliser Ministries take theannouncement. Pertinently, total transportation cost of theKG-D6 gas is likely to be around US $2.35/mmbtu (equivalentto 55% of the well head selling price of gas) which will increasethe delivered cost of the gas to around US $9/mmbtu.

Outlook and Valuation

The hike in tariffs for the DVPL/GREP expansion has come as a

surprise. We had factored in flat blended transmission tariffs

for GAIL's tariffs over FY2010E-12E compared to street

expectations of decline in the same. However, GAIL's

management has guided for 10% increase in the blended

GAIL India - Buy

Event Update

Price - Rs425Target Price - Rs553

Target Price - Rs356

Research Analyst - Deepak Pareek/Amit Vora

Source: Company, Angel Research, Price as on April 20, 2010

Key Financials

Net SalesNet SalesNet SalesNet SalesNet Sales 23,776 23,776 23,776 23,776 23,776 25,250 25,250 25,250 25,250 25,250 36,858 36,858 36,858 36,858 36,858 41,305 41,305 41,305 41,305 41,305

% chg 32.0 6.2 46.0 12.1

Net PNet PNet PNet PNet Profitsrofitsrofitsrofitsrofits 2,804 2,804 2,804 2,804 2,804 3,031 3,031 3,031 3,031 3,031 3,596 3,596 3,596 3,596 3,596 4,277 4,277 4,277 4,277 4,277

% chg 7.8 8.1 18.7 18.9

OPM (%) 17.1 17.6 14.7 16.7

EPS (Rs)EPS (Rs)EPS (Rs)EPS (Rs)EPS (Rs) 22.122.122.122.122.1 23.923.923.923.923.9 28.428.428.428.428.4 33.733.733.733.733.7

P/E (x) 19.3 17.8 15.0 12.6

P/BV (x) 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.4

RoE (%) 20.2 19.1 19.8 20.3

RoCE (%) 21.3 20.7 20.0 21.3

EV/Sales (x) 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.4

EV/EBITDA (x) 12.7 12.0 10.7 8.2

Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E

transmission tariffs consequent to the announcement. The

blended transmission tariffs have been increased by 22% for

the period. We have now factored in blended transmission tariffs

of Rs917/tscm for FY2011E and Rs1,068/tscm for FY2012E

from Rs849/tscm. Consequent to the change in our estimates,

our Revenue, EBITDA and Profitability estimates for FY2011E

and FY2012E, stand increased.

The announcement reduces the overhang and uncertainty

regarding the transmission tariffs for GAIL, which should be a

positive catalyst for the stock. We value GAIL on SOTP basis at

Rs553/share (core business is valued at Rs420/share, E&P

valued at Rs20/share, Cash and Investment value of Rs113/

share). At Rs425, the stock is available at 12.6x FY2012E EPS

of Rs33.7 and 2.4x FY2012E P/BV. WWWWWe upgrade the stock to ae upgrade the stock to ae upgrade the stock to ae upgrade the stock to ae upgrade the stock to a

BuyBuyBuyBuyBuy.....

April 24, 2010



Performance Highlights

Axis Bank reported a strong Net Profit growth of 31.5% yoy,which was ahead of our expectations, on the back of lower-than-estimated provisions for NPAs. The core business growthrecorded a strong improvement, with advances and depositsgrowth of 27.9% and 20.4%, respectively. The other key positivefrom the result was a sequential CASA improvement, reasonablenon-interest income growth and continued retail networkexpansion. WWWWWe maintain a Buy on the stock.e maintain a Buy on the stock.e maintain a Buy on the stock.e maintain a Buy on the stock.e maintain a Buy on the stock.

Strong Advances Growth boosts NII: Strong Advances Growth boosts NII: Strong Advances Growth boosts NII: Strong Advances Growth boosts NII: Strong Advances Growth boosts NII: Advances increased by arobust 27.9% yoy and 23.1% sequentially to Rs1,04,343cr, whileDeposits increased to Rs1,41,300cr, a growth of 20.4% yoyand 24.1% sequentially. The CASA ratio of the bank improvedto 46.7%, from 45.6% in 3QFY2010 and from 43.1% in4QFY2009. During the quarter, the daily average balances ofSavings deposits grew by 40% yoy and those of Current accountdeposits grew by 42% yoy. This, coupled with the Rs3,800cr ofequity capital raised during October 2009, was reflected in anuptick in the reported NIMs of the bank to the 4.1% level (against4.0% in 2QFY2010 and 3.4% in 4QFY2009). As a result, theNet Interest Income of the bank recorded a growth of 41.4%yoy and 8.2% sequentially.

Reasonable Non-interest income growth: Reasonable Non-interest income growth: Reasonable Non-interest income growth: Reasonable Non-interest income growth: Reasonable Non-interest income growth: Fee income registereda growth of 17% yoy to Rs780cr during 4QFY2010, ascompared to Rs664cr in 4QFY2009, with contributions fromall the major businesses of the Bank. Fee income from Largeand Mid Corporate Credit grew 111% yoy (partly due to thereclassification of the loan syndication business to the Largeand Mid Corporate Credit Segment), followed by a 20% yoygrowth in Treasury, a 2% yoy growth in Retail Business; however,fee income from SME and Agri-lending businesses declined by6% yoy, that from Business Banking by 8% yoy and from CapitalMarkets by 34% yoy.

AssetAssetAssetAssetAsset-----quality Stable:quality Stable:quality Stable:quality Stable:quality Stable: The Gross NPAs were up by 12.3% qoq toRs1,318cr, with a coverage ratio at 72.4% (including technicalwrite-offs). However, on the back of a strong advances growth,the Gross and Net NPA ratios of the bank were stable at 1.1%and 0.4%, respectively. The cumulative restructured portfolioremained at the level of Rs 2,286cr, and stood at 2% of grosscustomer assets. There was a recovery from restructured assets

Axis Bank - Buy

4QFY2010 Result Update

Price - Rs1,239Target Price - Rs1,459


Research Analyst - Vaibhav Agrawal/Amit Rane


Key Financials

NIINIINIINIINII 3,686 3,686 3,686 3,686 3,686 5,006 5,006 5,006 5,006 5,006 6,154 6,154 6,154 6,154 6,154 7,7397,7397,7397,7397,739

% chg 42.6 35.8 22.9 25.7

Net PNet PNet PNet PNet Profitrofitrofitrofitrofit 1,815 1,815 1,815 1,815 1,815 2,515 2,515 2,515 2,515 2,515 2,870 2,870 2,870 2,870 2,870 3,852 3,852 3,852 3,852 3,852

% chg 69.5 38.6 14.1 34.2

NIM (%) 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1


P/E (x) 24.5 20.0 17.5 13.0

P/ABV (x) 4.4 3.1 2.8 2.4

RoA (%) 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5

RoE (%) 19.1 19.2 16.7 19.6

Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E

to the tune of Rs155.2cr and a slippage of Rs28.3cr to NPAsduring the quarter, taking cumulative slippages from restructuredassets to Rs413cr, or 18% of the restructured loans.

Strong Capital Adequacy:Strong Capital Adequacy:Strong Capital Adequacy:Strong Capital Adequacy:Strong Capital Adequacy: The bank has a high CAR of 15.8%,on the back of the equity raised during 2QFY2010. The Tier-Icapital stood at 11.2% at the end of 4QFY2010. With theleverage (Assets/Networth) at 12.0x, the bank is adequatelycapitalised to grow its advances at 5-8% above industry growthover FY2010-12E.

High AFS exposure in Investment book: High AFS exposure in Investment book: High AFS exposure in Investment book: High AFS exposure in Investment book: High AFS exposure in Investment book: The Bank's AFS portfolioconstituted 36.8% and its HFT portfolio 7.7% of the totalinvestment book. The non-SLR investment was 39% of the totalinvestment book. The bank reduced the modified duration ofits AFS portfolio during the quarter. The modified duration AFSand HTM stood at 2.3 years (3.4 years in 3QFY2010) and 5.2years, respectively.


At Rs1,239, the stock is trading at 13.0x FY2012E EPS of Rs95.1and 2.4x FY2012E Adjusted Book Value (ABV) of Rs521. Weremain positive on the Bank and believe that it deserves premiumvaluations on account of its attractive CASA franchise, multiplesources of sustainable fee income, strong growth outlook andA-list management. WWWWWe maintain a Buy on the stock, with ae maintain a Buy on the stock, with ae maintain a Buy on the stock, with ae maintain a Buy on the stock, with ae maintain a Buy on the stock, with aTTTTTarget Parget Parget Parget Parget Price of Rs1,459, implying an upside of 18%.rice of Rs1,459, implying an upside of 18%.rice of Rs1,459, implying an upside of 18%.rice of Rs1,459, implying an upside of 18%.rice of Rs1,459, implying an upside of 18%.

April 24, 2010




Good growth in TGood growth in TGood growth in TGood growth in TGood growth in Topopopopop-line, Operating performance marginally-line, Operating performance marginally-line, Operating performance marginally-line, Operating performance marginally-line, Operating performance marginallyabove expectation:above expectation:above expectation:above expectation:above expectation: For 1QCY2010, Net Sales grew 25.2% yoyto Rs237.4cr (Rs189.7cr) in line with our expectation of Rs237cr.The company reported de-growth on the Operating and Bottom-line fronts and recorded 417bp dip in OPM and 396bp yoygain in NPM for 1QCY2010 respectively, which was marginallyabove our expectation. Profit growth jumped primarily due tothe one-time Exceptional item of Rs11.5cr in 1QCY2009.

For 1QCY2010, Operating performance on a yoy basis waslargely impacted due to the 348bp increase in Raw Materialcosts on the back of higher steel prices.

Margins decline by 417bp on higher Input costs:Margins decline by 417bp on higher Input costs:Margins decline by 417bp on higher Input costs:Margins decline by 417bp on higher Input costs:Margins decline by 417bp on higher Input costs: EBITDAMargins plummeted by a substantial 417bp yoy to 15.3%(19.4%) basically due to the increase in Raw Material costs by348bp during the quarter. Nonetheless, the dip in OPM wasarrested to a certain extent due to lower Staff costs during thequarter. Other Expenses increased by 145bp yoy. Overall,Operating Profit fell marginally by 1.7% yoy to Rs36.2cr(Rs36.8cr), which came in marginally above our expectation.

Bottom-line up 61.4%:Bottom-line up 61.4%:Bottom-line up 61.4%:Bottom-line up 61.4%:Bottom-line up 61.4%: For 1QCY2010, FAG registered 61.4%yoy increase in Bottom-line to Rs22.5cr (Rs13.9cr) largely onaccount of the one-time Exceptional item of Rs11.5cr in1QCY2009.


In a developing economy like India, with greater focus onmechanisation of the manufacturing process, demand forbearings has outperformed industrial growth. FAG's prospectsare derived from demand arising in the Capital Goods andAutomobile industries. The Capital Goods and ManufacturingSectors present a strong opportunity for the Bearings industry.Further, the Bearings Segment has a direct co-relation with theAuto Sector growth, which is expected to post around10%growth per annum over the next 4-5 years.

During the last five years, the company posted a CAGR of 20%in Revenue. Going ahead, over CY2009-11E, we haveconservatively modeled Volumes to record CAGR of 11%, whichwould in turn drive 15% CAGR in Revenues in the mentionedperiod. We believe that Revenue growth will largely be driven

FAG Bearings - Buy

1QCY2010 Result Update

Price - Rs591Target Price - Rs712Target Price - Rs356

Research Analyst - Vaishali Jajoo


Key Financials

Net SalesNet SalesNet SalesNet SalesNet Sales 762 762 762 762 762 820 820 820 820 820 959 959 959 959 959 1,084 1,084 1,084 1,084 1,084

% chg 17.0 7.6 16.9 13.0

Net PNet PNet PNet PNet Profitsrofitsrofitsrofitsrofits 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6 73.1 73.1 73.1 73.1 73.1 85.3 85.3 85.3 85.3 85.3 98.7 98.7 98.7 98.7 98.7

% chg 24.3 (25.9) 16.7 15.6

OPM (%) 21.3 13.6 15.0 15.4

EPS (Rs)EPS (Rs)EPS (Rs)EPS (Rs)EPS (Rs) 57.6 57.6 57.6 57.6 57.6 39.4 39.4 39.4 39.4 39.4 51.3 51.3 51.3 51.3 51.3 59.4 59.4 59.4 59.4 59.4

P/E (x) 10.3 15.0 11.5 10.0

P/BV (x) 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.6

RoE (%) 26.5 15.1 17.1 17.0

RoCE (%) 38.6 20.8 24.0 24.2

EV/Sales (x) 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7

EV/EBITDA (x) 5.7 7.3 5.6 4.6

Y/E December (Rs cr) CY2008 CY2009 CY2010E CY2011E

by higher contribution from new products. Thus, we estimatethe company to record EPS of Rs51.3 and Rs59.4 for CY2010Eand CY2011E, respectively.

At Rs591, the stock is quoting at 11.5x CY2010E and 10.0xCY2011E Earnings. On account of higher IIP growth, there existsan upside risk to our Earning Estimates. WWWWWe maintain a Buy one maintain a Buy one maintain a Buy one maintain a Buy one maintain a Buy onthe stock, with a Tthe stock, with a Tthe stock, with a Tthe stock, with a Tthe stock, with a Target Parget Parget Parget Parget Price of Rs712, at which level the stockrice of Rs712, at which level the stockrice of Rs712, at which level the stockrice of Rs712, at which level the stockrice of Rs712, at which level the stockwould trade at its historical upwould trade at its historical upwould trade at its historical upwould trade at its historical upwould trade at its historical up-----cycle P/E of 12x on CY2011Ecycle P/E of 12x on CY2011Ecycle P/E of 12x on CY2011Ecycle P/E of 12x on CY2011Ecycle P/E of 12x on CY2011Ebasis.basis.basis.basis.basis.

Company Background

FAG India is a FAG Kugelfischer George Schaefer AG Groupcompany. The parent manufactures bearings for automotiveand industrial applications. FAG India is a preferred supplierof bearing systems to some of the leading manufacturers ofcars and trucks, like Maruti, M&M, Tata Motors, GM, Ford andDaimler Chrysler. Notably, with global players looking atenhancing their capacities in India, FAG can enjoy an edgeover its peers to supply to these OEMs in India.

April 24, 2010




OPM expands 672bp yoy to 25.0%, up 510bp qoq:OPM expands 672bp yoy to 25.0%, up 510bp qoq:OPM expands 672bp yoy to 25.0%, up 510bp qoq:OPM expands 672bp yoy to 25.0%, up 510bp qoq:OPM expands 672bp yoy to 25.0%, up 510bp qoq:Sequentially, the company's OPM expanded by 510bp to 25.0%(19.9%) mainly on account of the increase in the Gross Gasspread (selling price minus the gas cost) touching an all-timehigh of Rs4.3/scm as against Rs4.0/scm registered in4QCY2009. This was on account of full impact of CNG pricehike effected in the latter part of December 2009 and 1.6%Rupee appreciation on a sequential basis, which lowered gascost. On a yoy basis, the company's OPM expanded by 672bpto 25.0% (18.3%) as the Gross Gas spread increased 27.7%yoy to Rs4.3/scm (Rs3.3/scm). Higher Gross Gas spread yoywas on account of higher realisations and positive impact ofstronger Rupee on gas cost in 1QCY2010. OPM was alsosupported by the 3.0% yoy decline in Operating expenditureduring the quarter, wherein Staff costs increased 8.3% yoy toRs10.7cr (Rs9.9cr) and Other operating expenditure fell 8.3%yoy to Rs19.3cr. (Rs21.1cr). Robust expansion in OPM yoyresulted in EBITDA increasing by 83.1% yoy to Rs103cr (Rs56cr),which was higher than our expectation of Rs83cr.

Depreciation, Interest costs in line: Depreciation, Interest costs in line: Depreciation, Interest costs in line: Depreciation, Interest costs in line: Depreciation, Interest costs in line: Depreciation was up 17.2%yoy to Rs12.8cr (Rs11cr) due to investments in the pipelinenetwork, CNG and other infrastructure during the year. Sincethe company uses internal cash accruals to meet its workingcapital requirements and for expansions, the Interest costs werenegligible.

Higher THigher THigher THigher THigher Topopopopop-line and OPM expansion boost P-line and OPM expansion boost P-line and OPM expansion boost P-line and OPM expansion boost P-line and OPM expansion boost PAAAAAT by 70.1%:T by 70.1%:T by 70.1%:T by 70.1%:T by 70.1%: OtherIncome declined 47.7% yoy to Rs4.0cr (Rs7.6cr), while theeffective Tax rate rose to 33.8% (30.3%). Bottom-line increasedby 69.5% yoy to Rs62cr (Rs36cr), which was higher than ourexpectation of Rs50cr. Bottom-line growth could be attributedto Volume growth and expansion in Gross Gas spread.


Gujarat Gas is keen on entering into a term contract forprocurement of RLNG. It has received an allocation of0.6mmscmd of KG-D6 gas from the Government of India on afallback basis, and is in discussion with the suppliers andtransporters to finalise agreements for flowing this gas into theits system. The company is expecting the KG-D6 gas to flowfrom May end. Thus, going ahead, sustainable increase in

Gujarat Gas - Accumulate

1QCY2010 Result Update




Key Financials


% chg 4.5 9.1 17.3 22.7

Net PNet PNet PNet PNet Profitsrofitsrofitsrofitsrofits 160.6 160.6 160.6 160.6 160.6 174.2 174.2 174.2 174.2 174.2 217.6 217.6 217.6 217.6 217.6 262.1 262.1 262.1 262.1 262.1

% chg 5.0 8.4 24.9 20.5

OPM (%) 18.1 19.7 21.2 20.6


P/E (x) 22.5 20.7 16.6 13.8

P/BV (x) 5.1 4.7 3.9 3.3

RoE (%) 25.1 23.6 25.8 25.8

RoCE (%) 23.4 24.4 27.4 28.0

EV/Sales (x) 1.1 2.2 1.9 1.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 6.1 11.4 9.0 7.2

Y/E December (Rs cr) CY2008 CY2009 CY2010E CY2011E

domestic volumes, RLNG volumes and gas flow from KG-D6would be growth drivers for the company as well as soften thesupply-side constraints.

The company's CNG Segment has been clocking healthygrowth, thereby increasing its share in the volume matrix. Morethan 115,000 Natural Gas vehicles are now plying in thecompany's markets, which is higher by around 5.5% sequentially.Further, with incremental volumes likely to flow to thehigh-Margin Industrial Retail Segment, the company wouldregister Margin expansion going ahead. Also, potentialappreciation of the Rupee would be the icing on the cake. Inthe current quarter, we saw Gross Gas spread touching anall-time high of Rs4.3/scm as against Rs4.0/scm registered in4QCY2009. This signifies that the company is able to pass onany increase in the gas cost and benefit from Rupee appreciationto maintain its Margins.

At Rs282, the stock is trading at 16.6x CY2010E and 13.8xCY2011E Earnings. Further, potential trigger for the stock couldbe the GSPC IPO (has filed the DRHP), where Gujarat Gasholds stake. WWWWWe recommend an Accumulate on the stock, withe recommend an Accumulate on the stock, withe recommend an Accumulate on the stock, withe recommend an Accumulate on the stock, withe recommend an Accumulate on the stock, witha Ta Ta Ta Ta Target Parget Parget Parget Parget Price of Rs306, implying 15x CY2011E EPS of Rs20.4rice of Rs306, implying 15x CY2011E EPS of Rs20.4rice of Rs306, implying 15x CY2011E EPS of Rs20.4rice of Rs306, implying 15x CY2011E EPS of Rs20.4rice of Rs306, implying 15x CY2011E EPS of Rs20.4and translating into 8.6% upside from current levels.and translating into 8.6% upside from current levels.and translating into 8.6% upside from current levels.and translating into 8.6% upside from current levels.and translating into 8.6% upside from current levels.

April 24, 2010




HCL Tech (HCL) delivered better-than-expected results byreporting a strong 6.9% qoq growth in the constant currency.The growth was supported by an 8.2% jump in the billed efforts,compensating the pricing decline of 1.2%, sequentially. However,the growth in the reported currency was low at 1.4% qoq, onaccount of the significant appreciation of the Rupee over theUSD (1.6%), Euro (6%) and the GBP (7%). The cross-currencyimpact was higher vis-à-vis the peers, as HCL derives a highershare of Revenue from the Euro zone (28% on LTM basis) andhas a lower Fx cover. The EBIT grew by just 1% qoq on accountof a ramp-down in the BPO segment. The Net profit grew by15.9% at Rs344cr, sequentially, helped by lower Fx losses (downto Rs62cr from Rs125cr in 3QFY2010).

Reaping the benefits of keyReaping the benefits of keyReaping the benefits of keyReaping the benefits of keyReaping the benefits of key, large deal wins:, large deal wins:, large deal wins:, large deal wins:, large deal wins: HCL Tech hasbeen clocking a higher revenue growth than its peers in the lastfew quarters, backed by large multi-million-dollar deal wins inthe recent past. During 3QFY2010, it recorded a Top-line growthof 1.4% qoq (7.5% yoy), backed by a strong 8.2% qoq growthin volumes. However, the positive impact on the volume growthwas largely curtailed by a pricing decline of 1.1% qoq and a5.5% qoq impact of cross-currencies, resulting in lowerrealisations. The company has recorded strong revenue growth,backed by a 15% qoq growth in the Media vertical and a 9.8%qoq growth in the Manufacturing segment. InfrastructureServices revenue grew by a strong 15% qoq; however, the BPOvertical was subdued, with a 13% qoq fall in revenue, as thecompany has been witnessing a ramp-down in one majoraccount. The company bagged 13 new deals across verticals(offshoring and transformational in nature), and added 39 newclients during the quarter.


HCL Tech clocked a strong business growth of 6.9% (constantcurrency) in the quarter; however, the growth in reportedcurrency was just 1.4%, on account of the low hedge cover andthe sharp rupee appreciation against major currencies. Webelieve that this trend will continue, as the company has notparticipated in booking hedges at high levels of 46-52 INR/USD and would thus witness a wider gap between USD revenuesand reported revenues vis-à-vis its peers. Operating profitability

HCL Technologies - Accumulate



Research Analyst - Rahul Jain/Vibha Salvi


Key Financials

Net SalesNet SalesNet SalesNet SalesNet Sales 10,59110,59110,59110,59110,591 12,11012,11012,11012,11012,110 13,61113,61113,61113,61113,611 15,90315,90315,90315,90315,903

% chg 40.0 14.3 12.4 16.8

Adj. Net PAdj. Net PAdj. Net PAdj. Net PAdj. Net Profitrofitrofitrofitrofit 1,2751,2751,2751,2751,275 1,4591,4591,4591,4591,459 1,6341,6341,6341,6341,634 1,9331,9331,9331,9331,933

% chg 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.2

OPM (%) 21.8 21.6 21.0 20.5


P/E (x) 20.3 19.7 17.1 14.2

P/BV (x) 4.6 4.1 3.6 3.1

RoE (%) 23.4 24.3 24.1 24.8

RoCE (%) 30.6 38.5 41.8 40.9

EV/Sales (x) 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 11.5 10.0 8.9 7.4

Y/E June (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E

is likely to take a hit by 110bp, as the company would facepressures in terms of higher wage costs (lateral hiring and wageinflation) and currency headwinds. However, the PAT marginwould remain stable at the current levels, on account of savingson lower interest costs and Fx losses, as the low-cost hedgedpositions would end in 1HFY2011E.

We expect the company to mark a top-line CAGR of 14.7%during FY2009-12E, assuming a 20% growth in USD revenuesand a realisation de-growth of 530bp over the next two years(assuming INR/USD rate of 44.5). HCL has been operating atan 80%+ utilisation level (overall); thus, it does not have muchroom in terms of productivity gains. Hence, the EPS is likely togrow at a slower CAGR of 12.8% over FY2009-12E. The stockis currently trading at 17x on its FY2011E EPS of Rs22.5 and14.2x on its FY2012E EPS of Rs27.2. We have valued the stockat 15.5x of its FY2012E earnings, in line with its historicalaverage of 15x during FY2006-2010, and at a 30% discountto our Infosys target P/E multiple of 22x (historical discount of32%). WWWWWe maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock, with ae maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock, with ae maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock, with ae maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock, with ae maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock, with aTTTTTarget price of Rs420.arget price of Rs420.arget price of Rs420.arget price of Rs420.arget price of Rs420.

April 24, 2010




TTTTTopopopopop-line in-line, riding on robust volumes: -line in-line, riding on robust volumes: -line in-line, riding on robust volumes: -line in-line, riding on robust volumes: -line in-line, riding on robust volumes: For 4QFY2010, HeroHonda (HH) clocked a 20% growth in Net Sales to Rs4,093cr(Rs3,412cr), which was in line with our estimates. Sales increasedprimarily on the back of a strong 18.9% growth in Volumesand a marginal rise in the yoy average Realisations of aroundRs34,492 per bike (compared to Rs34,192 last year). OperatingMargins improved by 89bp, on the back of a decline in RawMaterial costs, decent Top-line growth and optimal operatingleverage. As a result, the Bottom-line spurted by 49% to Rs599cr(Rs402cr) during the quarter, surpassing our expectation ofRs545cr.

Margins improve on better operating leverage: Margins improve on better operating leverage: Margins improve on better operating leverage: Margins improve on better operating leverage: Margins improve on better operating leverage: During4QFY2010, HH's EBITDA Margins increased by 88bp yoy, owingto lower Raw Material costs, which fell by 142bp yoy andaccounted for 67.6% of Sales (69.1% in 4QFY2009) and betterOperating leverage during the quarter. Other Expenditureincreased by 46bp yoy during the quarter, due to higherAdvertising expenditure. HH reported 26.7% yoy increase inOperating Profit to Rs682cr (Rs538cr) in 4QFY2010.

Net PNet PNet PNet PNet Profit exceeds expectations: rofit exceeds expectations: rofit exceeds expectations: rofit exceeds expectations: rofit exceeds expectations: HH reported a 49% surge inNet Profit to Rs599cr (Rs402cr) during 4QFY2010, owing tothe improvement in the OPM and a lower Tax provision arisingfrom the commencement of its Haridwar plant. Other Income,which mainly comprised of treasury gains, increased by 80.6%yoy to Rs99.2cr (Rs54.9cr) for 4QFY2010, and aided theBottom-line growth during the quarter.

Market share reduced in FY2010; future outlook cautious:Market share reduced in FY2010; future outlook cautious:Market share reduced in FY2010; future outlook cautious:Market share reduced in FY2010; future outlook cautious:Market share reduced in FY2010; future outlook cautious:HH's domestic Motorcycle Segment market share of 53.9% atthe end of FY2010 has come down from about 63.1% at theend of FY2009. The company has guided to clock five millionmotorcycles Sales Volume in FY2011E. The Scooter Segmentrecorded an overall Volume growth of 37.2% yoy duringFY2010, with its new launch, Pleasure, selling about 17,500units per month.


The Two-wheeler Segment registered an improvement in Salesin FY2010, on the back of the various measures adopted bythe government to revive the Auto Sector, coupled with the

Hero Honda - Accumulate




Research Analyst - Vaishali Jajoo


Key Financials


% chg 19.2 27.9 10.0 9.7


% chg 32.4 74.1 7.7 8.3

OPM (%) 13.9 16.9 16.5 16.3


P/E (x) 29.6 17.0 15.8 14.6

P/BV (x) 10.0 10.0 7.9 6.6

RoE (%) 37.8 58.9 56.1 49.4

RoCE (%) 42.1 61.6 58.0 51.6

EV/Sales (x) 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 20.1 12.5 11.4 10.2

Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E

positive developments on the macro-economic front. We believethat although the substantial ownership base of Two-wheelershas reduced the headroom for higher double-digit growth rates,the increased Replacement demand is expected to sustainVolumes. The rural markets are also expected to register bettergrowth on account of the new demand arising from the relevantrural population. Thus, we estimate the Two-wheeler Segmentto maintain its growth momentum and to register around a 9%CAGR in Volumes over the next few years.

We expect HH to record around a 10% CAGR in Revenues overFY2010-12E, aided by around an 8% CAGR in Volumes duringthe period. We estimate the OPM to decline to around 16.3%(16.9%) in FY2012E, due to the increasing Raw Material prices(aluminum and steel). We expect the Net Profit to register aCAGR of 8% over FY2010-12E, on account of the Tax benefitsavailed by HH at its new plant in Uttaranchal. We have revisedour EPS estimates marginally upwards to Rs120.3 (Rs113 earlier)for FY2011E and to Rs130.3 (Rs123), following the better-than-expected 4QFY2010 performance by the company. WWWWWeeeeerecommend Accumulate the stock, with a Trecommend Accumulate the stock, with a Trecommend Accumulate the stock, with a Trecommend Accumulate the stock, with a Trecommend Accumulate the stock, with a Target Parget Parget Parget Parget Price ofrice ofrice ofrice ofrice ofRs2,085, owing to the recent decline in the stock price.Rs2,085, owing to the recent decline in the stock price.Rs2,085, owing to the recent decline in the stock price.Rs2,085, owing to the recent decline in the stock price.Rs2,085, owing to the recent decline in the stock price.

April 24, 2010




Hindustan Zinc (HZL) continues to register strong operationalperformance in 4QFY2010 and reported net revenues ofRs2,545cr, which was ahead of our estimate of Rs2,334cr.However, net profit at Rs1,239cr, registering a growth of 124.7%yoy, was in line with our estimate of Rs1,235cr.

Higher byHigher byHigher byHigher byHigher by-product sales led to strong top-product sales led to strong top-product sales led to strong top-product sales led to strong top-product sales led to strong top-line performance-line performance-line performance-line performance-line performance:HZL's saleable zinc production was flat at 150,309 tonnes(150,544 tonnes), while saleable lead production increased by16.9% yoy to 18,345 tonnes (15,691 tonnes). Consequently,zinc volumes declined by 1.0% yoy to 151,294 tonnes (152,796tonnes), while lead volumes increased by 17.9% yoy to 18,450tonnes (15,651 tonnes). However, zinc and lead realisationsincreased by 105.9% yoy to US $2,462/tonne and 85.3% yoyto US $2,473/tonne, respectively.

Sales were also supported by higher zinc and lead concentratesales during the quarter at 49,073 tonnes. Silver productionincreased by 22.4% yoy to 43,066 tonnes (35,176 tonnes),while sales grew 26.6% yoy to 42,399kg (33,496kg). Averagesilver realisation surged 41.0% yoy to Rs25,970/kg (Rs 19,978/kg). Thus, net revenues increased by 97.4% to Rs2,545cr, aheadof our estimate of Rs2,334cr.

EBITDEBITDEBITDEBITDEBITDA margins expand by 1,574bp to 60.8%:A margins expand by 1,574bp to 60.8%:A margins expand by 1,574bp to 60.8%:A margins expand by 1,574bp to 60.8%:A margins expand by 1,574bp to 60.8%: During thequarter, royalty costs increased by 128.0% yoy to Rs191cr andsalary costs were up by 55.1% yoy to Rs135cr. However, higherby-product sales resulted in operating margins expanding by1,574bp to 60.8%, marginally lower than our estimate.

Net profit up 124.7% in line with our estimateNet profit up 124.7% in line with our estimateNet profit up 124.7% in line with our estimateNet profit up 124.7% in line with our estimateNet profit up 124.7% in line with our estimate: In 4QFY2010,though interest expenses increased by 470% yoy to Rs28cr andother income fell by 30.8% yoy to Rs134cr, net profit moved up124.7% yoy to Rs1,239cr on the back of strong operatingperformance.

Status on Expansion projects

At the end of the quarter, the 210,000 tonne zinc smelterat Dariba and 1mtpa zinc concentrator at Rampura Aguchawas successfully commissioned around three months ahead ofschedule.

The 100,000 tonne lead smelter is expected to becommissioned in 2QFY2011E.

Hindustan Zinc - Accumulate




Research Analyst - Paresh Jain/Pooja Jain


Key Financials


% chg (27.9) 43.3 20.0 31.9


% chg (38.0) 48.2 25.3 35.6

OPM (%) 48.1 58.9 60.0 60.2


P/E (x) 19.1 12.9 10.3 7.6

P/BV (x) 3.6 2.9 2.3 1.8

RoE (%) 20.8 24.9 24.7 26.1

RoCE (%) 18.0 26.5 25.9 27.3

EV/Sales (x) 7.5 4.9 3.6 2.2

EV/EBITDA (x) 15.5 8.3 6.1 3.7


Mining projects at Sindesar Khurd is also on schedule forcommissioning by 1QFY2011E.


At Rs1,232, the stock is trading at 6.1x FY2011E and 3.7xFY2012E EV/EBITDA. We believe that HZL is well poised tobenefit from: 1) the scale-up of zinc-lead smelting capacity to1.1mn tonnes, and 2) a significant increase in silver productionalong with 100% backward linkages. Plans of the Sterlite groupto buy out the remainder of the government's holding couldprovide further upside. In addition, with HZL being one of thelowest cost producers in the world and having a huge cashbalance of Rs11,900cr at the end of the quarter (Rs282 pershare), we maintain an Accumulate on the stock, with a Twe maintain an Accumulate on the stock, with a Twe maintain an Accumulate on the stock, with a Twe maintain an Accumulate on the stock, with a Twe maintain an Accumulate on the stock, with a TargetargetargetargetargetPPPPPrice of Rs1,399, valuing the stock at 5.5x FY2012E EV/EBITDrice of Rs1,399, valuing the stock at 5.5x FY2012E EV/EBITDrice of Rs1,399, valuing the stock at 5.5x FY2012E EV/EBITDrice of Rs1,399, valuing the stock at 5.5x FY2012E EV/EBITDrice of Rs1,399, valuing the stock at 5.5x FY2012E EV/EBITDAAAAA.....

April 24, 2010




VVVVVolumes drive Tolumes drive Tolumes drive Tolumes drive Tolumes drive Topopopopop-line, EBITD-line, EBITD-line, EBITD-line, EBITD-line, EBITDA disappoints:A disappoints:A disappoints:A disappoints:A disappoints: RIL reportedlower-than expected 4QFY2010 numbers on the Top-line andEBITDA front. Top-line increased 120.7% yoy to Rs57,570cr(Rs26,082cr) primarily on the back of the 164.7% yoy growthin Refining Revenues to Rs51,250cr (Rs19,365cr) and awhopping 486.7% yoy increase in Oil & Gas Revenues toRs4,318cr (Rs736cr). Growth in the Refining Segment was drivenby the increase in Refining throughput during the quartercoupled with the increase in crude oil prices. Crude oil processedduring the quarter was higher by 114.4% yoy to 16.7mn tonnes(7.79mn tonnes) following commissioning of the SEZ refinery.KG-D6 gas production further scaled up in the current quarterwith average production increasing to 60mmscmd.

Margins below expectations: Margins below expectations: Margins below expectations: Margins below expectations: Margins below expectations: During the quarter, RIL reportedGRMs of US $7.5/bbl (US $9.9/bbl) as against our expectationof US $8.5/bbl. Benchmark complex Singapore Margins, duringthe quarter, stood at around US $4.9/bbl. Thus, RIL managedto earn a spread of US $2.6/bbl, which was lower than spreadseen in 3QFY2010. The primary reason for the lower-than-expected spread over the benchmark Singapore margins is theabsence of fuel oil in RIL's product slate (notably fuel oil spreadsimproved during 4QFY2010 in turn aiding expansion of thebenchmark Singapore margins). Moreover, the benchmarkrefining margins in RIL's target markets, viz. North America (USGulf Coast Margins) was lower at US $3.0/bbl. EBIT Marginsof the Petrochemical Segment was in line with our expectationfollowing the significant softening of PP spreads on a yoy abasis.Petchem Margins strengthened on a qoq basis on accountof strong Petrochemical deltas. Oil & Gas EBIT Margins declinedby a substantial 2,457bp yoy to 39.4% (64.9%) on account ofhigher Depreciation of KG-D6. Operating Profit grew by 60.1%yoy to Rs9,136cr (Rs5,707cr), which was lower than our estimateby 7.6% on account of lower than expected Refining Margins.

Depreciation increases, Interest, Other Income decline:Depreciation increases, Interest, Other Income decline:Depreciation increases, Interest, Other Income decline:Depreciation increases, Interest, Other Income decline:Depreciation increases, Interest, Other Income decline:Depreciation during the quarter exceeded our estimate spiking134.6% yoy on account of the additional depreciation of theSEZ refinery and KG-basin gas facility. Interest expenditure waslargely flat at Rs525cr, down 0.9% yoy. Other Income at Rs615cr,fell 39.7% yoy and came in higher than our estimate of Rs500cr.

Reliance Industries - Buy





PPPPPAAAAAT grew 19.1%:T grew 19.1%:T grew 19.1%:T grew 19.1%:T grew 19.1%: PAT grew 19.1% yoy to Rs4,710cr (Rs3,627cr),which was lower than our expectation of Rs5,109cr mainlybecause of lower-than-expected Refining Margins. Tax rateduring the quarter was lower at 19.2% as against ourexpectation of 21.0%.


Overall, RIL has successfully executed its two mega ventures,viz. KG basin gas and the SEZ refinery with minimal executionproblems . We expect these ventures to be likely key drivers ofProfitability over the next couple of years. Ramp up of gasproduction and higher oil production would likely increase theshare of E&P in the Profit matrix. We believe the key factors towatch out for in the near term are Supreme Court verdict onthe KG-basin gas dispute and inorganic growth plans pursuedby RIL. In case of litigation, we have already factored the adverseimpact of the same post the high court judgment. Thus, thereexists limited downside on this count. Given its valuation of1.9x FY2012E P/BV, we believe that the company is relativelyundervalued at current levels. WWWWWe maintain a Buy on RILe maintain a Buy on RILe maintain a Buy on RILe maintain a Buy on RILe maintain a Buy on RIL, with, with, with, with, witha Ta Ta Ta Ta Target Parget Parget Parget Parget Price of Rs1,260, translating into an upside of 15.9%rice of Rs1,260, translating into an upside of 15.9%rice of Rs1,260, translating into an upside of 15.9%rice of Rs1,260, translating into an upside of 15.9%rice of Rs1,260, translating into an upside of 15.9%from current levels.from current levels.from current levels.from current levels.from current levels.

Source: Company, Angel Research, Price as on April 23, 2010;Note: FY2010 PAT is profit from operations

Key Financials

Net salesNet salesNet salesNet salesNet sales 151,224151,224151,224151,224151,224 203,740203,740203,740203,740203,740 234,754234,754234,754234,754234,754 243,596243,596243,596243,596243,596

% chg 10.3 34.7 15.2 3.8

Net PNet PNet PNet PNet Profitrofitrofitrofitrofit 14,96914,96914,96914,96914,969 15,89815,89815,89815,89815,898 22,74322,74322,74322,74322,743 28,55028,55028,55028,55028,550

% chg (23.3) 6.2 43.1 25.5


EBITDA Margin (%) 15.5 15.2 17.6 20.0

P/E (x) 23.8 14.5 15.6 12.5

RoE (%) 14.3 11.8 14.6 16.0

RoCE (%) 10.6 9.8 14.1 17.0

P/BV (x) 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.9

EV/ Sales (x) 2.7 1.9 1.6 1.4

EV/ EBITDA 17.5 12.6 9.0 7.2


April 24, 2010




For 4QFY2010, TCS reported strong performance well aheadof ours and consensus estimates. Top-line growth of 3.1% qoqin US Dollar terms was in line with our expectations. However,the growth in reported Revenue was impacted by unfavourablecurrency movements. The company utilized various Operatinglevers, which helped it report 19bp qoq and 368bp yoyimprovement in EBIDTA Margins. Furthermore, strong OtherIncome of Rs163cr aided Net Profit growth of 7.4% qoq and47.1% yoy growth. Strong growth in Profits came as a surprise,as the company was on an aggressive hiring spree adding net10,775 employees during the quarter.

LLLLLarge deal wins, execution levers drive performance: arge deal wins, execution levers drive performance: arge deal wins, execution levers drive performance: arge deal wins, execution levers drive performance: arge deal wins, execution levers drive performance: TCSrecorded Top-line growth of 1.1% qoq (7.9% yoy) backed by4% growth in Volumes. The growth in Revenues was broad basedand was largely driven by new service offerings such as Asset-Leveraged Solutions (26.4%), Consulting (20.4%), AssuranceServices (15%) and ITO (6.2%) highlighting full-service-offeringcapabilities of the company. The company closed 10 large dealsand added 39 new clients during the quarter. EBIT Marginexpanded by 20bp qoq mainly on account of improvement inproductivity by 247bp. The company also reported strong NetOther Income of Rs163cr, up from Rs 56.9cr in 3QFY2010,mainly on account of the 69% qoq increase in Interest Incomeand strong Non-Operating Income of Rs110cr.


Outlook on the demand side looks optimistic as suggested bymanagement confidence, robust hiring and peer guidance. Weexpect the company to mark Top-line CAGR of 13.7% overFY2010-12E, assuming 19% growth in USD Revenues andRealisation de-growth of 600bp, assuming INR/USD rate of44.5. On the Profitability front, the company has narrowed thegap with Infosys by 480bp clocking PAT Margins of 22.9% forFY2010. TCS has been operating at 80%+ utilisation levelsand has been witnessing traction in high Realisation servicessuch as Consulting, Asset Leverage Solutions and Infra. Webelieve that the PAT Margins would decline by 180bp byFY2012E absorbing the higher wage rate, Rupee appreciationand increased effective Tax rate. Thus, the growth in EPS wouldbe lower at 9.2% during the period.

TCS - Buy



Research Analyst - Rahul Jain/Vibha Salvi


Key Financials (Consolidated, US GAAP)

Net SalesNet SalesNet SalesNet SalesNet Sales 27,81327,81327,81327,81327,813 30,02930,02930,02930,02930,029 33,35133,35133,35133,35133,351 38,82138,82138,82138,82138,821

% chg 23.0 8.0 11.1 16.4

Net PNet PNet PNet PNet Profitrofitrofitrofitrofit 5,1725,1725,1725,1725,172 6,8736,8736,8736,8736,873 7,4137,4137,4137,4137,413 8,2008,2008,2008,2008,200

% chg 3.0 32.9 7.9 10.6

EBITDA Margin (%) 25.8 28.9 28.7 28.2


P/E (x) 14.9 22.5 20.8 18.8

P/BV (x) 4.8 7.2 6.1 5.2

RoE (%) 36.2 36.8 31.9 29.8

RoCE (%) 47.4 48.5 47.5 50.7

EV/Sales (x) 2.8 5.2 4.4 3.7

EV/EBITDA (x) 10.5 17.4 15.5 13.2


The stock is currently trading at 20.8x FY2011E EPS of Rs37.8and 18.8x FY2012E EPS of Rs41.9. The stock is trading at parto Infosys' PE multiple as against the average discount of 10%during FY2008-10. We believe that the historical discount willnarrow down going ahead on account of strong Revenueperformance and reduced gap in the Profitability Margins(Margin differential of just 360bp for FY2010). We have valuedthe stock at 22x FY2012E Earnings similar to its historicalaverage of 21x during FY2007-2010 and at par with our TargetPE multiple of 22x for Infosys. WWWWWe recommend a Buy on thee recommend a Buy on thee recommend a Buy on thee recommend a Buy on thee recommend a Buy on thestock, with a Tstock, with a Tstock, with a Tstock, with a Tstock, with a Target Parget Parget Parget Parget Price of Rs921.rice of Rs921.rice of Rs921.rice of Rs921.rice of Rs921.

April 24, 2010


April 24, 2010


TTTTTechnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |

Banks aid bulls to gain lost ground

Sensex (17694) / Nifty (5304)

In our previous Weekly report, we had mentioned that if marketsfail to close above Friday's low of 17530 / 5238 then we couldwitness violation of the upward sloping trend-line and a fall upto 17275 / 5187 levels. Following the same, we witnessed thefall to 17277 / 5161 levels. On the other hand banking stocksgained momentum towards the end of the week, pushing theindices to cross 17664 / 5283 levels to test the intra week highof 17778 / 5332 level. The Sensex closed with a marginal gainof 0.6%, while the Nifty gained 0.8 %, vis-à-vis the previousweek.

Future Outlook

Looking at Daily chart, we are of the opinion that indices aretaking support at the lower trend-line of the channel drawn joiningtwo significant lows, viz. 15725 - 17277 / 4692 - 5160. Technicalstudies on the daily chart indicates that if 17778 / 5332 is crossedwe may witness further continuation of the momentum up to18000 - 18050 / 5380 - 5400 levels where some profit bookingmay be witnessed. On the downside, 17490 - 17380 /5220 - 5200 (lower range of the upward slopping trend-line)levels are crucial supports for the market. Any breakdown belowthese levels would mean a loss of momentum. Markets mayrequire a strong positive trigger to cross the 5400 level.

F&O derivatives expiry markets may turn volatile. TF&O derivatives expiry markets may turn volatile. TF&O derivatives expiry markets may turn volatile. TF&O derivatives expiry markets may turn volatile. TF&O derivatives expiry markets may turn volatile. Traders areraders areraders areraders areraders areadvised to adopt a cautious approach. Stock specific actionadvised to adopt a cautious approach. Stock specific actionadvised to adopt a cautious approach. Stock specific actionadvised to adopt a cautious approach. Stock specific actionadvised to adopt a cautious approach. Stock specific actionwould be witnessed next week.would be witnessed next week.would be witnessed next week.would be witnessed next week.would be witnessed next week.

Source: Advanced Get

Pattern Formation

On the Daily chart, the prices are trading in an upwardsloping channel and have taken support near the lower rangeof the channel. The value of the lower trend-line of the channelis around 17380 / 5200 levels.

On the daily chart, we are witnessing a positive crossoverin 3 & 8 Exponential moving average and momentum oscillatorviz., the RSI.

On the Weekly chart, the Bank Nifty has given a "V" formationbreak out at 9250 level. In addition, we witnessed a pullback to9250 levels in the last week, and now has resumed the upwardtrend. In our Daily report, we had mentioned about a morningstar formation at the 9250 level, with a target price of 9700. Wemaintain our bullish view and expect the Bank Nifty to touch10350 in the next 4-5 weeks based on the break out of the"V "formation.

Bank Nifty Weekly Chart

‘V’ Formation

Source: Falcon

April 24, 2010


Short-term Picks


J P ASSOCIATE (157.40) - BULLISH

Buying Range : Rs.157.00 - Rs.152.00Target : Rs.186.00Stoploss : Rs.142.50Time Frame : 3 - 4 Weeks

Justification -Justification -Justification -Justification -Justification - On the Weekly chart, the stock has broken outfrom its resistance level of Rs.155.00. In addition, the ADX (9)Indicator is on the verge of giving a positive crossover. Moreover,the RSI and Stochastic oscillators on the Monthly chart are placedpositively. Looking at the significant growth in volumes for thelast 4 - 5 days along with sufficient technical studies this stockhas a potential to give good upside move in the coming 3 - 4weeks. We recommend buying this stock from current levels upto a decline of Rs.152.00 for a target of Rs.186.00.



GODREJ IND. (167.35) - BULLISH

Buying Range : Rs.167.00 - Rs.163.00Target : Rs.190.00Stoploss : Rs.155.25Time Frame : 2 - 3 Weeks

Justification - Justification - Justification - Justification - Justification - Looking at the Monthly chart, it seems that thestock has taken a support on 50% Fibonacci Retracement levels.It is also supported by Oscillators like RSI & Stochastic as theyare positively poised. Further, we are witnessing a breakout ofa price pattern at Rs.164.00 which resembles a "Bullish Pennant"on the Daily chart. Moreover, the volumes have picked upsignificantly since the last 10 - 15 trading days. The abovetechnical evidences suggest an upside move in this stock. Werecommend buying from current levels up to a decline ofRs.163.00 for a target of Rs.190.00 in the coming 2 - 3 Weeks.

April 24, 2010



Technical Research Team

Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks

NIFTYSENSEXBANKEX

A.C.C.ABB LTD.AMBUJACEM

AXISBANKBHARAT PETROBHARTIARTL

BHELCAIRNCIPLA

DLFGAILHCL TECHNOLO

HDFC BANKHERO HONDAHINDALCO

HINDUNILVRHOUS DEV FINICICI BANK

IDEAIDFCINFOSYS TECH

ITCJINDL STL&POJPASSOCIATE

KOTAK BANKLTMAH & MAH

MARUTINTPCONGC CORP.

PNBPOWERGRIDRANBAXY LAB.

RCOMREL.CAPITALRELIANCE

RELINFRARPOWERSIEMENS

STATE BANKSTEEL AUTHORSTER

SUN PHARMA.SUZLONTATA POWER

TATAMOTORSTATASTEELTCS

UNITECH LTDWIPRO

SCRIPS R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2

5,437.00 5,370.00 5,266.00 5,199.00 5,095.00 18,085.00 17,889.00 17,583.00 17,388.00 17,082.00 10,234.00 10,024.00 9,615.00 9,405.00 8,996.00

970.00 937.00 914.00 881.00 858.00 889.00 856.00 839.00 806.00 789.00 126.00 123.00 119.00 116.00 113.00

1,329.00 1,283.00 1,205.00 1,159.00 1,082.00 514.00 506.00 501.00 493.00 488.00 360.00 329.00 313.00 282.00 267.00

2,575.00 2,528.00 2,473.00 2,426.00 2,371.00 309.00 304.00 300.00 294.00 290.00 349.00 340.00 331.00 322.00 313.00

350.00 341.00 327.00 319.00 305.00 452.00 437.00 420.00 405.00 387.00 421.00 404.00 374.00 357.00 327.00

2,005.00 1,979.00 1,943.00 1,917.00 1,881.00 1,983.00 1,931.00 1,888.00 1,836.00 1,793.00

191.00 185.00 177.00 171.00 164.00

252.00 246.00 235.00 228.00 217.00 2,873.00 2,800.00 2,709.00 2,637.00 2,546.00 1,031.00 1,004.00 953.00 927.00 876.00

70.00 68.00 66.00 64.00 63.00 184.00 177.00 168.00 161.00 151.00

2,834.00 2,780.00 2,737.00 2,683.00 2,640.00

280.00 274.00 267.00 260.00 254.00 770.00 744.00 725.00 699.00 679.00 170.00 164.00 153.00 147.00 137.00

790.00 768.00 734.00 712.00 678.00 1,671.00 1,644.00 1,596.00 1,569.00 1,520.00

544.00 533.00 512.00 500.00 479.00

1,437.00 1,399.00 1,362.00 1,324.00 1,286.00 211.00 208.00 206.00 202.00 200.00

1,047.00 1,033.00 1,014.00 1,000.00 981.00

1,106.00 1,069.00 1,020.00 983.00 934.00 114.00 112.00 109.00 107.00 104.00 478.00 467.00 451.00 440.00 425.00

175.00 171.00 168.00 164.00 160.00 768.00 752.00 740.00 724.00 711.00

1,125.00 1,107.00 1,077.00 1,059.00 1,030.00

1,192.00 1,158.00 1,121.00 1,086.00 1,050.00 168.00 164.00 158.00 155.00 149.00 754.00 736.00 717.00 698.00 679.00

2,471.00 2,366.00 2,189.00 2,084.00 1,907.00 235.00 230.00 224.00 219.00 213.00 847.00 821.00 803.00 777.00 759.00

1,863.00 1,774.00 1,725.00 1,636.00 1,588.00 75.00 73.00 71.00 69.00 68.00

1,420.00 1,391.00 1,341.00 1,312.00 1,262.00

912.00 878.00 821.00 787.00 730.00 705.00 677.00 660.00 632.00 615.00 852.00 816.00 797.00 761.00 742.00

92.00 89.00 84.00 80.00 75.00 745.00 718.00 703.00 677.00 662.00

April 24, 2010


Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |

Scrip : CAIRNScrip : CAIRNScrip : CAIRNScrip : CAIRNScrip : CAIRN CMP : Rs. 297.65CMP : Rs. 297.65CMP : Rs. 297.65CMP : Rs. 297.65CMP : Rs. 297.65 LLLLLot Size : 1250ot Size : 1250ot Size : 1250ot Size : 1250ot Size : 1250 Expiry Date (F&O) : Expiry Date (F&O) : Expiry Date (F&O) : Expiry Date (F&O) : Expiry Date (F&O) : 29th Apr, 2010

Expected PayoffView: Mildly Bullish

Rs. 290.00

Rs. 295.00

Rs. 300.00

Rs. 305.00

Rs. 310.00

Rs. 315.00

BEPBEPBEPBEPBEP: : : : : Rs.302.00/-

Max. Risk: Max. Risk: Max. Risk: Max. Risk: Max. Risk: Rs.2,500.00/- Max. PMax. PMax. PMax. PMax. Profit:rofit:rofit:rofit:rofit: UnlimitedIf Stock closes at or below Rs.300 on expiry. If stock continues to trade above BEP.

NONONONONOTETETETETE::::: Profit can be booked before expiry, if CAIRN moves in the favorable direction.

Strategy: Long Call

Buy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/Sell QtyQtyQtyQtyQty ScripScripScripScripScrip StrikeStrikeStrikeStrikeStrike SeriesSeriesSeriesSeriesSeries OptionOptionOptionOptionOption Buy RateBuy RateBuy RateBuy RateBuy RatePPPPPricericericericerice TTTTTypeypeypeypeype (Rs.)(Rs.)(Rs.)(Rs.)(Rs.)

Buy 1250 CAIRN 300 April Call 2.00

Closing PClosing PClosing PClosing PClosing Pricericericericerice ExpectedExpectedExpectedExpectedExpectedPPPPProfit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lossossossossoss

(Rs. 2.00)

(Rs. 2.00)

(Rs. 2.00)

Rs. 3.00

Rs. 8.00

Rs. 13.00

Hold on to Nifty long positions

Nifty spot has closed at 53045304530453045304 this week, against a close of 52635263526352635263 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.241.241.241.241.24 to 1.351.351.351.351.35 levelsand the annualized Cost of Carry (CoC) is positive 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03%. The Open Interest in Nifty Futures has increased by 6.086.086.086.086.08%.

The April Future closed at a premium of 0.90 points as againsta premium of 0.45 points last week and May future closed at apremium of 3.85 points. Some liquid counters where CoCturned from negative to positive are SUNPHARMA, ESSAROIL,TATAPOWER, TATASTEEL and WIPRO. Counters where CoCturned from positive to negative are HDFC, JINDALSTEL, GTL,HEROHONDA and NTPC.

The total Open Interest of the market is Rs.1,37,708 crore, asagainst Rs. 1,24,505 crore last week, and the Stock Futures'open interest has increased from Rs. 35,697 crore to Rs.40,511crore. Over the week, TCS has added significant open interestwhich is mainly on the short side and Rs.780 is strong supportfor the counter. In real-estate stocks, HDIL has beenunderperforming and trading around its support. Stocks whereopen interest has decreased are GSPL, MUNDRAPORT, SUNTV,IBREALESTATE and OPTOCIRCUI.

Open Interest Analysis Cost-of-Carry Analysis

The Nifty PCR has increased from 1.24 to 1.35 levels.Over-the-week, the 5200 strike call and put have addedsignificant open interest, whereas, profit booking has beenobserved by buyers in the 5300 and 5400 strike calls. Althoughmarket has corrected from 5332 level, witnessing intradayvolatility, it closed around 5300 level. Over the week, significantdecrease in the IVs, indicating strength in the market, any diparound 5200-5220 can be used to go long for the series.

Put-Call Ratio Analysis Futures Annual Volatility Analysis

The Historical Volatility of the Nifty has decreased from 15.70%to 14.85%. IV of at the money options has decreased from19.00% to 15.00%. Some liquid counters where HV hasincreased significantly are SBIN, ADANIENT, KSOILS, HCLTECHand UCOBANK. Stocks where HV has declined are BPCL, IOC,GRASIM, ROLTA and DISHTV.

Derivative Strategy

Scrip : PUNJLLScrip : PUNJLLScrip : PUNJLLScrip : PUNJLLScrip : PUNJLLOOOOOYDYDYDYDYD CMP : Rs. 167.10CMP : Rs. 167.10CMP : Rs. 167.10CMP : Rs. 167.10CMP : Rs. 167.10 LLLLLot Size : 1500ot Size : 1500ot Size : 1500ot Size : 1500ot Size : 1500 Expiry Date (F&O) : Expiry Date (F&O) : Expiry Date (F&O) : Expiry Date (F&O) : Expiry Date (F&O) : 29th Apr, 2010

Expected PayoffView: Mildly Bullish

Rs. 165.00

Rs. 170.00

Rs. 175.00

Rs. 180.00

Rs. 185.00

BEPBEPBEPBEPBEP: : : : : Rs.171.50/-

Max. Risk: Max. Risk: Max. Risk: Max. Risk: Max. Risk: Rs.2,250.00/- Max. PMax. PMax. PMax. PMax. Profit:rofit:rofit:rofit:rofit: UnlimitedIf Stock closes at or below Rs.170 on expiry. If stock continues to trade above BEP.

NONONONONOTETETETETE::::: Profit can be booked before expiry, if PUNJLLOYD moves in the favorable direction.

Strategy: Long Call

Buy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/Sell QtyQtyQtyQtyQty ScripScripScripScripScrip StrikeStrikeStrikeStrikeStrike SeriesSeriesSeriesSeriesSeries OptionOptionOptionOptionOption Buy RateBuy RateBuy RateBuy RateBuy RatePPPPPricericericericerice TTTTTypeypeypeypeype (Rs.)(Rs.)(Rs.)(Rs.)(Rs.)

Buy 1500 PUNJLLOYD 170 April Call 1.50

Closing PClosing PClosing PClosing PClosing Pricericericericerice ExpectedExpectedExpectedExpectedExpectedPPPPProfit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lossossossossoss

(Rs. 1.50)

(Rs. 1.50)

Rs. 3.50

Rs. 8.50

Rs. 13.50

April 24, 2010


Mutual FMutual FMutual FMutual FMutual Fund Fund Fund Fund Fund Focus |ocus |ocus |ocus |ocus |

Birla SunLife Capital Protection Oriented Fund Series 2 - NFO Analysis

Fund Features NFO Period: 21st April to 21st May 2010

Investment RationaleCapital Protection

Asset allocation and investment strategy is well suited for doingaway with highly volatile returns and loss of capital.Capital protection will be attained by Passive management ofdebt portion in high credit quality instruments.

Fixed Deposits - Plus, Tax Efficient ReturnsThis feature is aimed at investors who want the safety of FixedDeposits but also want controlled participation in Equities.The scheme differentiates itself from traditional Fixed Deposits,as it will be able to generate higher Post Tax returns due toTriple Indexation benefit.

Investment StrategyDebt Strategy

Investments in G-Secs or ICRA approved LAAA or equivalentrated securities only. The debt portion will be managed passively.Duration of debt instruments would be 36 months or lower.Debt investment - as much amount as required to reach 100% at maturity.

Equity StrategyValuation Based

Bottom-up stock picking with Medium to Long Term growthpotential and Growth stocks with reasonable valuation.Flexi-cap portfolio.Internal valuation targets for each stock.

LLLLLock in gainsock in gainsock in gainsock in gainsock in gainsBook Profit at certain levels to avoid capital erosion.

Disclaimer: Angel Broking Ltd is not responsible for any error or inaccuracy or any losses suffered on account of information contained in this report. Data source is from MFI Explorer and BirlaSunLife AMC. Mutual Fund investments are subjected to market risk. Please read the Statement of Additional Information and Scheme Information document carefully before investing.

* Money Market Instruments include commercial papers, commercial bills, treasury bills, and Government securities having an unexpired maturity upto one year, call or notice money, certificate of deposit, usance bills, CBLOsand any other like instruments as specified by the Reserve Bank of India from time to time ICRA, while assigning mfAAA (so) rating to the scheme has assumed initial Asset mix (allocation in Debt and equity securities).

Investment Objective To seek capital protection by investing in high quality fixed income securities maturing in line with the tenure of the scheme andseeking capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity related instruments

Type of Scheme A Close Ended Capital Protection Oriented Scheme

Bench Mark Index CRISIL MIP Blended Index

Min Investment Minimum of Rs. 5,000/- and in multiples of Rs. 10/- thereafter during the NFO period.

Liquidity/Scheme Duration 36 Months.

Listing Units of Scheme will be listed on one or more recognized stock exchanges within 30 days from closure of NFO.

Entry load/Exit Load Nil (Redemption/repurchase not allowed prior to maturity of scheme. Investors may exit through stock exchange mode)

Options Growth

Fund Managers Mr. Satyabrata Mohanty

Asset Allocation Instruments Indicative Allocation Risk Profile(% of total assets)

Debt Securities and money market instruments* 80-100 Low to Medium

Equity & Equity Related instruments 0-20 High

USPs of the FundCombined benefits of better than FD returns with controlledequity exposure and Capital Protection through passivemanagement of high credit quality debt instruments.Triple Indexation benefit as the tenure of the scheme is 36months.Lower lock-in period of 3 years compared to other tax efficientinvestment avenues like NSC, post office deposit etc.Passive management on debt side with high quality debtinstruments based on high credit ratings.

Valuation based strategy of investing in equities along withemphasis on Locking-in of gains.

Ideal for InvestorsConservative Investors looking at higher than Fixed DepositsReturns.Investors looking for capital protection but still want someparticipation in equities for higher returns.

Note: There is no assurance of any capital protection or capital guarantee for investors in this Scheme.The Scheme offered is "oriented towards protection of capital" and "not with guaranteed returns".

Superior Post-Tax Returns compared to Fixed DepositsBirla Sun Life Capital Protection Fixed

Oriented Fund Series 2 - 36 months DepositIndexationIndexationIndexationIndexationIndexation

Purchase PPurchase PPurchase PPurchase PPurchase Pricericericericerice 100,000 100,000Rate of ReturnRate of ReturnRate of ReturnRate of ReturnRate of Return 6.50% 6.50%Repurchase PRepurchase PRepurchase PRepurchase PRepurchase Pricericericericerice 120,795 120,795GainGainGainGainGain 20,795 20,795Indexed Cost *Indexed Cost *Indexed Cost *Indexed Cost *Indexed Cost * 121,773 0LLLLLong Tong Tong Tong Tong Term Capital Gainerm Capital Gainerm Capital Gainerm Capital Gainerm Capital Gain -978 20,795TTTTTax Rateax Rateax Rateax Rateax Rate 20.60% 30.90%TTTTTaxaxaxaxax 0 6,426PPPPPost Tost Tost Tost Tost Tax Gainsax Gainsax Gainsax Gainsax Gains 20,795 14,369PPPPPost Tost Tost Tost Tost Tax Annualised Returnsax Annualised Returnsax Annualised Returnsax Annualised Returnsax Annualised Returns 6.50%6.50%6.50%6.50%6.50% 4.58%4.58%4.58%4.58%4.58%This table is for illustration purpose only to explain the tax efficiency of the schemeover a fixed deposit (FD) Source: Birla Sunlife AMC

Performance (% Returns) of Some funds managed by Fund ManagerSchemeSchemeSchemeSchemeScheme 66666 11111 22222 SinceSinceSinceSinceSince

MonthsMonthsMonthsMonthsMonths YYYYYearearearearear YYYYYearearearearear InceptionInceptionInceptionInceptionInception

BSL Capital Protection 3.37 9.51 7.15 6.82Oriented Fund - 5 Years(G)BSL Capital Protection 3.14 6.68 5.29 5.42Oriented Fund - 3 Years(G)BSL Monthly Income Plan(G) 3.46 13.00 11.16 12.14Source: ICRA MFI Explorer; Note: Returns (%) are ABSOLUTE for <=1 yr andCOMPOUND ANNUALIZED for >1 Yrs.

April 24, 2010


Mutual FMutual FMutual FMutual FMutual Fund Fund Fund Fund Fund Focus |ocus |ocus |ocus |ocus |

DSP BlackRock Focus 25 Fund- NFO Analysis

Fund Features NFO Date: 23rd April 2010 to 21st May 2010

Disclaimer: Angel Broking Ltd is not responsible for any error or inaccuracy or any losses suffered on account of information contained in this report. Data source is from MFI Explorer and DSPBlackrock AMC. Mutual Fund investments are subjected to market risk. Please read the Scheme Information document carefully before investing.

Investment Objective The primary investment objective of the Scheme is to generate long-term capital growth from a portfolio of equity andequity-related securities including equity derivatives. The portfolio will largely consist of companies, which are amongst the top200 companies by market capitalisation. The Scheme may also invest in debt and money market securities, for defensiveconsiderations and/or for managing liquidity requirements. There can be no assurance that the investment objective of theScheme will be realized.

Type of Scheme An open-ended equity growth scheme

Bench Mark Index BSE Sensex

Min Investment Rs. 5,000/- and multiples of Re 1/- thereafter

Options Growth and Dividend (Payout & Reinvest)

Exit Load Holding period < 12 months: 1.00 % Holding Period > = 12 months: Nil

Asset Allocation Instruments Indicative Allocation Risk Profile(% of total assets)

1(a) Equity and equity related securities, which are amongst the top200 companies by market capitalization* 65-100 High

1(b) Equity and equity related securities, which are beyond the top200 companies by market capitalization 0-20 High

Debt securities, money market securities and cash & cash equivalents 0-35 Low

Note: Of 1(a) and 1(b) above, investments in ADRs, GDRs and foreign securities- 0% - 25%.*The portfolio will largely consist of companies, which are amongst the top 200 companiesby market capitalisation. The portfolio will limit exposure to companies beyond the top 200 companies by market capitalization to 20% of the net asset value. The Scheme will also haveat least 95% of the invested amount (excluding investments in debt securities, money market securities and cash & cash equivalents) across the top 25 holdings in the portfolio

Index Performance AttributionFew stocks are responsible for majority of the Index PerformanceGenerally 30% to 40% of the index constituents gave returns,which were 2X (two times) the index returns

Few stocks drive performance - The challenge is to identify them

Key Features of the FundObjective is to generate Superior Returns

High Conviction Portfolio consisting of 20-25 stocksAt least 95% of the invested level in not more than 25 stocksAt least 80% of the portfolio be in the top 200 companies bymarket capitalization

Investment Philosophy & ApproachHigh Conviction Portfolio consisting of 20-25 stocksAdopt a flexible approach to investing through the cycle,managing both bottom-up and top-down exposures.Build a concentrated portfolio of 20-25 high conviction stockswhile ensuring risk exposures are deliberate, suitably diversifiedand appropriately scaled.Fundamental research identifies anomalies in inefficient markets

Style Agnostic - No fixed styleStrong multi-skilled team with deep resources - Stock-picking,macro skills & risk management support

Ideal for InvestorsInvestment Horizon: Long TermRisk Appetite: High

Key Analysis-Indicating Out-Performance of BSE-200 Index

Note: Returns (%) are ABSOLUTE for <=1 yr and CAGR for >1 Yrs (Report as on23rd April 2010)

Performance of Equity Funds Managed by Apoorava ShahSchemeSchemeSchemeSchemeScheme 66666 11111 22222 SinceSinceSinceSinceSince

MonthsMonthsMonthsMonthsMonths YYYYYearearearearear YYYYYearearearearear InceptionInceptionInceptionInceptionInception

DSP BlackRock Equity Fund 11.44 81.88 12.59 15.5DSP BlackRock Small andMidcap Fund 21.00 122.47 16.31 14.59DSP BlackRock TechnologyFund 18.03 111.08 9.13 12.82DSP BlackRock Top 100Equity Fund 6.46 64.45 10.79 36.56Note: Returns (%) are ABSOLUTE for <=1 yr and CAGR for >1 Yrs (Report as on 23rd April 2010)

* % stocks with more than twice the index performance in a year when index was up orless than half the index fall when the index was down.Returns shown above are absolute returns during the calendar year period fromJanuary-1 to December-31YTD - 2010 returns shown above are absolute returns fromstart of January 2010 to end of March 2010 Source:Bloomberg

9.59

62.46

2.338.12

14.05

72.70

2.8710.31

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

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6 Months 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years

BSE Sensex BSE200

BSE Sensex Returns (%) Best Stock (%) age of stocks withReturns (%) twice index* Returns(%)

CY 2007 47.20 355.70 30.00CY 2008 -52.50 17.10 13.33CY 2009 81.00 427.30 30.00YTD-2010 0.40 18.70 46.70BSE 200CY 2007 60.40 1547.00 33.50CY 2008 -56.50 17.10 15.50CY 2009 88.50 427.30 25.50YTD-2010 0.90 292.00 47.00

April 24, 2010


Global economic issues drive commodity prices

Sr. Research Analyst (Commodities) - Reena Walia Nair

Commodity prices in the last week were mainly influenced bynews and development on the global economic front. Eventhough economic data from the US came on the positive side,what led to risk aversion in the financial markets was the concernover the Greece front. Performance on commodities like Gold,Copper and Crude oil was mixed during the week as uncertainand unresolved economic issues dented optimism over recoveryin the US.

Base metals ended on a mixed note in the last week as mixedeconomic data coupled with concerns over the Greece frontlimited gains. But positive news related to Greece on Fridayhelped revive positive sentiments in the financial markets. Duringthe week, the US Dollar strengthened as concerns over Eurozone and its debt woes led to risk aversion. But the currencygave up gains on Friday as Greece asked for a bailout fromthe European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Gold prices came under pressure in the last week as the dollarstrengthened. But demand for gold could resume as a safe-haven in uncertain financial markets. Even though economicdata from the US and China has been positive, uncertainty inthe Euro zone over the debt issue continues. Financial marketsstill remain susceptible over debt issues in the Euro zone as theEU lifted its estimate for Greece's deficit to 13.6% of grossdomestic product. Ireland overtook the southern Europeannation as the EU member with the largest deficit of 14.3%.Other member nations debt issues in the Euro zone remain acause of concern and this factor will dominate movement inthe Euro.

But gold prices could rise in the coming days on expectationthat signs of inflation will revive demand for the metal as astore of value. India the world's largest buyer of gold jewelryfaces inflation of almost 15% and consumer prices in the UKtoo climbed 3.4% in March. Accommodative policy by the USgovernment is also raising risk of inflation and the yellow metalis attracting demand as a safe-haven.

Prices are mainly taking cues from the economic developmentand the Euro zone debt issue continues to haunt sentiments inthe markets. Even though Greece receives a bailout, marketsare concerned further over the other Euro zone countries likeSpain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland which stand next in line withtheir debt woes. These worries have led to major pressure onthe Euro which slumped sharply in the last week. Weakness inthe Euro has revived demand for the low-yielding dollar.

We expect the US dollar to strengthen in this week as evidenceof global economic recovery and a surge in the US housingmarket will boost expectations of a rate hike. Other than that,

concerns over debt issues in the Euro zone will continue toprovide support to the dollar as a safe-haven during financialuncertainty. In the last week the euro touched the weakest levelagainst the dollar before Greece asked the EU and the IMF toactivate a bailout of as much as 45 billion euros.

US Economic Update

Data from the US housing market front has been positive in thelast week. New home sales in the US rose 27% in March, thehighest gain since April 1963. US durable goods orders gained2.8%, giving indications of an improving economic scenario inthe world's largest economy. Unemployment claims in the USdeclined 24,000 to 456,000 in the week ended 17th April.This indicates that companies are now enjoying better salesand profits and are thus gaining confidence in the economyand staff retaining.

In the last week, Federal Reserve Chairman gave his speech onthe US labour market saying that growth in the labour marketcould be slow as the number of jobs lost since the recession inDecember 2007 was high. But a significant amount of time willbe required to restore the 8.5 million jobs that were lost duringthe past two years. A gradual pick up in jobs will also help tolist consumer spending. The statement by the Fed Chairmanindicates that slow recovery on the labour market front will denthopes of an immediate interest rate hike by the US. Despitelower expectation of a rise in interest rates, we expect the dollarto strengthen as worries in the Euro zone could boost demandfor the low-yielding currency.

Another important development in the US last week was thespeech by President Barack Obama. He emphasized on theneed for financial regulatory reform and modernization. Newreforms may help to bring certainty in the capital and creditmarkets and fuel the economy by creating jobs.

Fundamental Outlook

Despite positive economic data, markets remain concerned overissues like debt-woes in the Euro zone. Debt issues in Spain,Portugal and Italy remain unresolved and this continues to hauntmarket sentiments. Hence, this uncertainty in the markets couldlead to strength in the dollar which will lead to downside pressureon prices of dollar-denominated commodities. Commoditieswill take direction from movement in the dollar, economic dataand corporate earnings results. On one hand, markets arewitnessing positive economic data and corporate earningsresults which give hope of economic recovery. But on the otherhand, markets remain susceptible over debt issues in the Eurozone.

Commodities Center |Commodities Center |Commodities Center |Commodities Center |Commodities Center |

April 24, 2010


Sr. Technical Analyst (Commodities) - Samson P

Last week, Gold prices opened the week at 16605 initially felllower and as expected found support at 16471 levels. Laterprices rallied sharply higher breaking the initial resistance at16710, made a high of 16815 and finally ended the week witha gain of Rs.195 to close at 16804.

Trend : Up

Trading Levels:

This week market is expected to find very good support at16730-16700 levels. And strong support is seen at16540-16510 levels.

Trading below 16510 would lead to lower prices initially towards16454 then 16352 and then finally towards the major supportat 16251.

Resistance is observed in the range of 16885-16915 and strongresistance is seen at 17060-17080.

Trading above 17080 would lead to higher prices initiallytowards 17179 and then finally towards the major resistanceat 17310.

Recommendation: Recommendation: Recommendation: Recommendation: Recommendation: Buy in the range of 16730-16710 with strictstop-loss below 16550 Targeting 16970 then 17060.

MCX June Gold

Last week, Silver prices opened the week at 27034 initially felllower and as expected found support at 26805 levels. Laterprices rallied sharply higher breaking both the resistances, madea high of 27728 and finally ended the week with a gain ofRs.649 to close at 27649.

Trend : Up

Trading Levels:

This week market is expected to find good support in the rangeof 27530-27480 levels. And strong support is seen at27150-27100 levels.

Trading below 27100 would lead to lower prices initially towards26873 then 26646 and then finally towards 26419 levels.

Resistance is observed in the range of 27960-28000 and strongresistance is seen at 28260-28300.

Trading above 28300 would lead to higher prices initiallytowards 28520 and then finally towards 28766.

Recommendation:Recommendation:Recommendation:Recommendation:Recommendation: Neutral

MCX May Silver

Bullion

Last week, Copper prices opened the week at 345.50 initiallymoved lower and as expected found good support at 340.20levels. Later prices rallied sharply higher, but again as expectedfound good resistance at 348.50 levels, corrected towards theweeks low at 340.20 and finally ended the week with a loss ofRs.1.4 to close at 344.70.

Trend : Sideways

Trading Levels:

This week market is expected to find good support in the rangeof 343-341.50 levels. And strong support is seen at 337-335levels.

Trading below 335 would lead to lower prices initially towards331.50 then 328.30 and then finally towards the major supportat 320 levels.

Resistance is observed in the range of 348-350 levels and strongresistance is seen at 354-356 levels.

Trading above 356 would lead to higher prices initially towards361 then 366 and then finally towards the major resistance at371 levels.

Recommendation: Recommendation: Recommendation: Recommendation: Recommendation: Neutral

MCX April Copper

Last week, Crude prices opened the week at 3751 initially movedlower and as expected found strong support at 3660 levels.Later prices moved sharply higher, made a high of 3788, andfinally ended the week with a gain of Rs.20 to close at 3782.

Trend : Up

Trading Levels:

This week market is expected to find good support in the rangeof 3765-3745 levels. And strong support is seen at3660-3640 levels.

Trading below 3638 would lead to lower prices initially towards3605 then 3564 and then finally towards the major support at3540.

Resistance is observed in the range of 3820-3830 levels andstrong resistance is seen at 3895-3905.

Trading above 3906 would lead to higher prices initially towards3940 then 3990 and then finally towards 4030.

Recommendation:Recommendation:Recommendation:Recommendation:Recommendation: Neutral

MCX May Crude

Commodities Center |Commodities Center |Commodities Center |Commodities Center |Commodities Center |

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okin

g Ltd

: BS

E Se

bi

Regn

No

:

INB

0109

9653

9 /

CDSL

Re

gn

No:

IN

- DP

-

CDSL

-

234

- 20

04

/ PM

S Re

gn

Code

: PM

/INP0

0000

154

6

Ange

l Se

curit

ies

Ltd:B

SE:

INB0

1099

4639

/INF0

1099

4639

NS

E:

INB2

3099

4635

/INF2

3099

4635

Me

mber

ship

nu

mber

s: BS

E 02

8/NS

E:09

946

23

Hote

lsTa

j GVK

Hot

els

Buy

173

240

1,0

84 2

98 3

42 4

0.6

42.

8 9

.0 1

2.2

19.

2 1

4.2

16.

4 1

8.7

Info

rmatio

n T

ech

nolo

gy

3i In

fote

chBu

y76

129

1,2

85 2

,734

3,1

97 1

9.7

19.

5 1

3.7

17.

3 5

.6 4

.4 1

4.2

14.

9Ed

ucom

p So

lBu

y71

0 9

26 6

,740

1,5

67 2

,085

45.

2 4

2.0

36.

5 4

6.3

19.

5 1

5.3

22.

9 2

3.1

Ever

onn

Edu

Buy

386

602

584

393

496

34.

0 3

2.5

36.

5 4

3.0

10.

6 9

.0 1

8.8

18.

1H

CL

Tech

Acc

umul

ate

388

420

26,

186

13,

611

15,

903

21.

0 2

0.5

22.

5 2

7.2

17.

3 1

4.3

24.

1 2

4.8

Info

sys

Acc

umul

ate

2786

3,0

44 1

59,7

77 2

5,65

8 3

1,07

1 3

4.2

33.

4 1

17.2

138

.4 2

3.8

20.

1 2

6.7

26.

1In

fote

ch E

nter

.A

ccum

ulat

e38

4 4

08 2

,130

1,1

29 1

,302

21.

2 2

0.5

30.

7 3

4.1

12.

5 1

1.3

15.

8 1

5.0

Mph

asis

Buy

659

872

1381

359

9070

4325

.225

.554

.564

.512

.110

.232

.729

.2N

IITA

ccum

ulat

e66

72

1,0

87 1

,335

1,4

69 1

3.0

13.

1 5

.4 6

.0 1

2.2

11.

0 1

7.4

17.

1TC

SBu

y78

0 9

21 1

52,6

22 3

3,35

1 3

8,82

1 2

8.7

28.

2 3

7.9

41.

9 2

0.6

18.

6 3

1.9

29.

8Te

ch M

ahin

dra

Buy

824

1,1

68 1

0,07

4 4

,989

5,7

04 2

4.0

23.

0 6

0.7

67.

8 1

3.6

12.

2 2

5.1

22.

1W

ipro

Acc

umul

ate

693

760

101

,725

31,

242

36,

929

21.

7 2

1.6

34.

8 3

9.9

19.

9 1

7.4

26.

8 2

5.7

Lam

inate

sG

reen

ply

Inds

Buy

183

291

404

1,0

44 1

,292

14.

0 1

5.0

21.

8 3

6.4

8.4

5.0

13.

7 1

4.4

Log

istic

sG

atew

ay D

istr

iBu

y 1

26 1

60 1

,364

696

847

28.

4 2

9.5

10.

2 1

2.5

12.

4 1

0.1

15.

8 1

7.2

Med

iaC

inem

ax In

dia

Buy

75

107

209

224

276

21.

9 2

2.5

6.0

8.2

12.

4 9

.1 9

.8 1

2.4

Dec

can

Chr

onic

leBu

y 1

55 2

16 3

,760

1,0

38 1

,192

48.

1 4

8.0

12.

4 1

4.7

12.

5 1

0.6

20.

4 2

0.9

HT

Med

iaBu

y 1

41 1

70 3

,323

1,6

02 1

,807

18.

3 1

8.6

6.8

8.5

20.

8 1

6.6

14.

2 1

5.1

INO

X Le

isur

eBu

y 6

7 8

1 4

13 2

90 3

54 2

1.2

22.

6 4

.2 5

.8 1

6.0

11.

6 7

.8 9

.8Ja

gran

Pra

kash

anBu

y 1

21 1

60 3

,644

1,0

92 1

,267

29.

7 3

0.2

6.7

8.0

18.

1 1

5.1

30.

5 3

3.2

PVR

Buy

181

211

416

445

562

15.

0 1

6.5

8.7

15.

1 2

0.8

12.

0 6

.9 1

0.9

TV T

oday

Net

wor

kBu

y 1

15 1

40 6

64 3

14 3

60 2

4.9

26.

3 9

.9 1

1.7

11.

6 9

.8 1

3.7

14.

0M

etals

Elec

tros

teel

Cas

tings

Buy

52

72

1,6

86 1

,706

1,8

18 2

6.2

28.

0 5

.6 6

.6 9

.2 7

.8 1

2.8

13.

6H

ind

Zinc

Buy

1,2

16 1

,399

51,

394

9,7

64 1

2,88

4 6

0.0

60.

2 1

19.8

162

.4 1

0.2

7.5

24.

7 2

6.1

Hin

dalc

oBu

y 1

78 2

07 3

4,12

5 6

5,93

0 6

9,73

1 1

3.1

13.

8 2

0.8

22.

6 8

.6 7

.9 1

7.2

15.

9JS

W S

teel

Acc

umul

ate

1,1

95 1

,360

22,

353

24,

499

30,

127

22.

5 2

2.9

97.

2 1

22.7

12.

3 9

.7 1

9.4

20.

1St

erlit

e In

dBu

y 7

95 9

80 6

6,82

9 2

8,47

3 3

2,62

2 2

9.4

31.

3 6

6.8

75.

1 1

1.9

10.

6 4

.7 6

.0Ta

ta S

teel

Acc

umul

ate

648

697

57,

531

117

,540

123

,012

12.

1 1

2.4

61.

2 5

7.5

10.

6 1

1.3

17.

0 1

4.1

Oil

& G

as

Cai

rn In

dia

Acc

umul

ate

298

- 5

6,50

2 7

,908

14,

980

82.

0 8

4.5

22.

9 4

5.8

13.

0 6

.5 1

2.8

24.

4G

AIL

Buy

422

553

53,

473

36,

858

41,

305

14.

7 1

6.7

28.

4 3

3.7

14.

9 1

2.5

19.

8 2

0.3

Guj

Gas

Acc

umul

ate

282

306

3,6

17 1

,665

2,0

42 2

1.2

20.

6 1

7.0

20.

4 1

6.6

13.

8 2

5.8

25.

8G

uj S

tate

Pet

roBu

y 9

3 1

21 5

,250

1,1

34 1

,208

93.

4 9

3.3

7.7

8.4

12.

2 1

1.1

22.

6 2

0.9

Petr

onet

LN

GA

ccum

ulat

e 8

2 8

8 6

,150

16,

528

20,

364

7.9

6.0

8.3

7.6

9.9

10.

8 2

3.3

19.

0Re

lianc

eBu

y 1

,087

1,2

60 3

57,3

25 2

34,7

54 2

43,5

96 1

7.6

20.

0 6

9.5

87.

3 1

5.6

12.

5 1

4.6

16.

0Sh

iv V

ani O

ilBu

y 4

44 5

10 1

,951

1,6

67 1

,725

41.

9 4

1.8

58.

6 6

3.7

7.6

7.0

21.

1 1

8.9

PPPP P ack

agin

gac

kagi

ngac

kagi

ngac

kagi

ngac

kagi

ngEs

sel P

ropa

ckBu

y 5

0 5

8 7

86 1

,350

1,4

71 1

9.5

20.

3 5

.1 8

.1 9

.8 6

.2 1

0.4

14.

8

Com

pan

y N

am

eRe

coC

MP

Targ

etM

kt C

ap

Sale

s (R

s cr

)

OPM

(%

)

EPS

(Rs)

PER (

x)

R

oE

(%)

(Rs)

Pric

e (R

s)(R

s cr

)FY

11E

FY12E

FY11E

FY12E

FY11E

FY12E

FY11E

FY12E

FY11E

FY12E

Stoc

k W

Stoc

k W

Stoc

k W

Stoc

k W

Stoc

k W

atch

|at

ch |

atch

|at

ch |

atch

| A

pril

24,

201

0

For

Priv

ate

Circ

ulat

ion

Onl

y |

Ange

l Br

okin

g Ltd

: BS

E Se

bi

Regn

No

:

INB

0109

9653

9 /

CDSL

Re

gn

No:

IN

- DP

-

CDSL

-

234

- 20

04

/ PM

S Re

gn

Code

: PM

/INP0

0000

154

6

Ange

l Se

curit

ies

Ltd:B

SE:

INB0

1099

4639

/INF0

1099

4639

NS

E:

INB2

3099

4635

/INF2

3099

4635

Me

mber

ship

nu

mber

s: BS

E 02

8/NS

E:09

946

24

Pharm

ace

utic

als

Ale

mbi

cA

ccum

ulat

e 5

0 5

2 6

61 1

,286

1,4

45 1

3.5

13.

4 5

.4 6

.4 9

.2 7

.7 1

3.4

14.

2C

ipla

Acc

umul

ate

332

360

26,

628

5,9

67 6

,723

19.

8 2

0.0

15.

1 1

7.2

22.

0 1

9.3

19.

2 1

8.8

Dis

hman

Pha

rma

Buy

228

311

1,8

38 1

,236

1,4

78 2

4.7

25.

3 1

9.7

23.

9 1

1.6

9.5

17.

6 1

8.3

Dr

Redd

ys L

abs

Acc

umul

ate

1,2

13 1

,313

20,

485

8,4

16 9

,787

16.

9 1

8.0

58.

3 7

4.2

20.

8 1

6.4

22.

8 2

3.6

Indo

co R

emed

ies

Buy

409

487

503

443

517

16.

2 1

7.4

40.

5 5

4.2

10.

1 7

.6 1

5.2

17.

5Ip

ca L

abs

Acc

umul

ate

266

282

666

1,7

96 2

,117

21.

2 2

1.2

19.

3 2

3.5

13.

8 1

1.3

27.

0 2

6.8

Lupi

nBu

y 1

,657

1,8

63 1

4,73

4 5

,373

6,1

87 2

0.2

20.

8 8

6.1

103

.5 1

9.3

16.

0 3

0.1

28.

9Pl

ast

ics

Sint

ex In

dust

ries

Buy

323

369

4,4

12 3

,845

4,5

95 1

6.9

17.

5 2

7.7

33.

6 1

1.7

9.6

16.

3 1

6.6

Pow

erC

ESC

Buy

395

460

4,9

40 4

,166

4,8

87 2

3.7

23.

938

.3 5

0.1

10.

37.

9 1

1.3

13.

1G

uj In

d Po

wer

Acc

umul

ate

118

135

1,7

77 1

,217

1,5

28 2

3.2

23.

3 7

.6 1

0.7

15.

5 1

1.0

7.3

9.3

NTP

CA

ccum

ulat

e 2

05 2

30 1

69,1

14 5

5,65

9 6

5,37

9 2

8.1

28.

712

.1 1

4.1

17.

014

.2 1

1.9

12.

9Po

wer

- C

ab

les

Fino

lex

Cab

les

Buy

57

91

877

1,8

25 2

,276

11.

7 1

2.0

6.9

10.

2 8

.3 5

.7 1

4.2

17.

9Po

wer

- T

rad

ing

PTC

Indi

aBu

y 1

13 1

36 3

,330

10,

906

13,

698

1.3

1.3

5.1

6.5

22.

2 1

7.4

6.8

8.2

Rea

l Est

ate

Ana

nt R

aj In

dsBu

y 1

33 1

96 3

,925

467

785

91.

7 9

2.3

11.

8 1

7.6

11.

3 7

.6 9

.7 1

2.9

HD

ILBu

y 2

81 3

56 9

,700

1,7

75 3

,106

49.

2 5

2.3

19.

7 3

5.2

14.

2 8

.0 9

.9 1

5.4

Ret

ail

Pant

aloo

n Re

tA

ccum

ulat

e 4

23 4

69 8

,715

10,

704

13,

137

10.

1 1

0.1

15.

6 2

0.4

27.

1 2

0.7

11.

1 1

3.0

Ship

yard

ABG

Shi

pyar

dBu

y 2

52 3

54 1

,283

1,9

27 2

,559

21.

0 2

1.0

23.

7 3

9.8

10.

6 6

.3 1

3.8

19.

7Te

leco

mBh

arti

Art

lBu

y 2

98 4

06 1

13,0

44 4

2,65

1 4

6,77

0 3

9.0

39.

1 2

3.8

25.

8 1

2.5

11.

5 2

1.3

19.

4Re

lianc

e C

omm

Buy

167

197

34,

510

24,

105

26,

657

31.

5 3

2.0

16.

2 1

8.6

10.

3 9

.0 7

.3 7

.9

Com

pan

y N

am

eRec

oC

MP

Targ

etM

kt C

ap

Sale

s (R

s cr

)

OPM

(%

)

EPS

(Rs)

PER (

x)

R

oE

(%)

(Rs)

Pric

e (R

s)(R

s cr

)FY

11E

FY12E

FY11E

FY12E

FY11E

FY12E

FY11E

FY12E

FY11E

FY12E

Sour

ce:

Com

pany

, Ang

el R

esea

rch,

* e

stim

ates

for

CY1

0E a

nd C

Y11E

; ^

est

imat

es f

or S

Y10E

and

SY1

1E;

Not

e: F

or e

ntire

Sto

ck W

atch

ref

er A

ngel

web

-site

April 24, 2010


NOTES

April 24, 2010


NOTES

Weekly Review

Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Ratings (Returns) :

Disclaimer

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision.Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigationsas they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document(including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investmentdecisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document arethose of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and tradingvolume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sourcesbelieved to be true, and is for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information containedwithin this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents ordata contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussedin this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributedor passed on, directly or indirectly.

Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or otheradvisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.

Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or inconnection with the use of this information.

Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section).

Weekly Review

Research Team

Fundamental:

Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical [email protected]

Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking [email protected]

Vaishali Jajoo Automobile [email protected]

Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate [email protected]

Anand Shah FMCG , Media [email protected]

Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas [email protected]

Puneet Bambha Capital Goods, Engineering [email protected]

Sushant Dalmia Pharmaceutical [email protected]

Rupesh Sankhe Cement, Power [email protected]

Param Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping [email protected]

Sageraj Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap [email protected]

Viraj Nadkarni Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap [email protected]

Paresh Jain Metals & Mining [email protected]

Amit Rane Banking [email protected]

Rahul Jain IT, Telecom [email protected]

Jai Sharda Mid-cap [email protected]

Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap [email protected]

Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) [email protected]

V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) [email protected]

Aniruddha Mate Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) [email protected]

Mihir Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) [email protected]

Chitrangda Kapur Research Associate (FMCG, Media) [email protected]

Vibha Salvi Research Associate (IT, Telecom) [email protected]

Pooja Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining) [email protected]

Technicals:

Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst [email protected]

Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst [email protected]

Derivatives:

Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives [email protected]

Jaya Agarwal Derivative Analyst [email protected]

Sandeep Patil Jr. Derivative Analyst [email protected]

Institutional Sales Team:

Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales [email protected]

Abhimanyu Sofat AVP - Institutional Sales [email protected]

Nitesh Jalan Sr. Manager [email protected]

Pranav Modi Sr. Manager [email protected]

Sandeep Jangir Sr. Manager [email protected]

Ganesh Iyer Sr. Manager [email protected]

Jay Harsora Sr. Dealer [email protected]

Meenakshi Chavan Dealer [email protected]

Gaurang Tisani Dealer [email protected]

Production Team:

Bharathi Shetty Research Editor [email protected]

Dharmil Adhyaru Assistant Research Editor [email protected]

Bharat Patil Production [email protected]

Dilip Patel Production [email protected]

Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800

Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

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