WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET REPORT WEEK 48 - 28 th November - to 2 nd December 2011 - Legal Disclamer The information contained herein has been obtained by various sources. Although every effort has been made to ensure that this information is accurate, complete and up to date, Shiptrade Services S.A. does not accept any responsibility whatsoever for any loss or damage occasioned or claimed, upon reliance on the information, opinions and analysis contained in this report. Researched and compiled by: Shiptrade Services SA, Market Research on behalf of the Sale & Purchase, Dry Cargo Chartering and Tanker Chartering Departments. For any questions please contact: [email protected]Shiptrade Services SA Tel +30 210 4181814 [email protected]1st Floor, 110/112 Notara Street Fax +30 210 4181142 [email protected]185 35 Piraeus, Greece www.shiptrade.gr [email protected]
Transcript
WEEKLY SHIPPING
MARKET REPORT WEEK 48
- 28th November - to 2nd December 2011 -
Legal Disclamer
The information contained herein has been obtained by various sources. Although every effort has been made to ensure that this information is accurate, complete and up to date, Shiptrade Services S.A. does not accept any responsibility whatsoever for any loss or damage occasioned or claimed, upon reliance on the information, opinions and analysis contained in this report.
Researched and compiled by: Shiptrade Services SA, Market Research on behalf of the Sale & Purchase, Dry Cargo Chartering and Tanker Chartering Departments. For any questions please contact: [email protected]
India to overtake China as its biggest coal customer - Mr
Beckham
Bumi Plc expects India to overtake China as its largest customer as consumption surges in the South Asian nation. The report quoted Mr Andrew Beckham CFO of Bumi as saying that “It used to be the case that the only way you sell is to China, but now India will pick up anything that China won’t take. I would say India will be our largest customer next year.” Mr Beckham during an interview said that China imports coal from Indonesia when it’s cheaper than or equivalent to domestic prices, while India is willing to pay a higher spot rate. India and China will be the dominant markets for Indonesia’s coal exports in the near future. Mr Beckham said that Indonesia’s high-grade coal appeals to India, where most of the output is of a low grade that needs to be mixed and treated first. He added that the trend of China’s imports could change with if spot coal prices decline or the yuan appreciates at a faster pace. According to the International Energy Agency, the thirst for power generation in Asia’s biggest energy users will boost China’s share of global coal consumption to 48% in 2035 and India’s share to 15%. (Bloomberg)
Hyundai, Samsung May Jump 80% on
South Korean shipbuilding stocks may jump as much as 80 percent in four months as they catch up with gains in oil prices, according to Mirae Asset Securities Co., an affiliate of the nation’s second-largest money manager. The Korea KRX Shipbuilding Index (KRXSHIP), which tracks Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., Samsung Heavy Industries Co. and eight other shipbuilding stocks, may rebound as rising oil prices spur demand for drill ships and liquefied natural gas tankers, said Lee Sokje, a Seoul-based Mirae analyst. The index has tumbled 42 percent since reaching the highest this year on May 2. “Looking at how oil prices are doing, it’s only a matter of time before shipyard shares follow,” Lee said by phone on Dec. 2. “This is a very good opportunity to buy.” Brent crude, the benchmark used to price two-thirds of global oil supplies, has jumped about 9.8 percent since Oct. 4 because of easing economic concerns and political tensions in Iran. The price may rise to $127.50 a barrel at the end of next year as the global economy avoids recession, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a Dec. 1 report. It traded at $109.60 Dec. 2. Hyundai Heavy, the world’s largest shipyard, gained 1.9 percent today to 294,500 won, the highest closing price in more than a month, in Seoul. Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. (042660) gained 4.2 percent to 30,900 won, the highest closing price in almost four months and the best performer on the Kospi 50 Index (KOSPI50) today. The Korea KRX Shipbuilding Index rose 1.9 percent.
Ship Slump The Bloomberg World Shipbuilding Index (BWSHIP) has fallen about 32 percent this year as orders for vessels to carry containers, commodities and oil have tumbled amid the European debt crisis and a slump in freight rates caused by overcapacity. This slowdown may affect Korean shipyards less than those in China as shipbuilders including Hyundai Heavy, Samsung Heavy and Daewoo Shipbuilding, South Korea’s three largest, have pared their reliance on these traditional markets by focusing more on energy-related products. South Korean yards may win more sales from energy products than ships for the first time next year, according to NH Investment & Securities Co. South Korean shipyards have built 88 percent of drill ships ordered since 2000 and 77 percent of LNG tankers since 2006, according to Mirae Asset’s Lee. Hyundai Heavy, based in Ulsan, South Korea, has won a record 11 drill-ship orders this year. The vessels are used to bore test wells. Mirae’s Lee has “buy” ratings on all six of the shipyards he covers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. He expects Hyundai Heavy to rise to 540,000 won within 12 months, compared with today’s closing price of 294,500 won. The shipyard (009540) is rated “buy” by 37 analysts, with two “hold” ratings and two “sell” ratings, according to Bloomberg data. (Bloomberg)
Qatar Petroleum and Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) signed a heads of agreement to develop a petrochemicals plant in the Gulf country for an estimated cost of $6.4 billion. State-run Qatar Petroleum will have an 80 percent stake in the project and Shell the remainder, the companies said today in Doha. They plan to sign a final joint-venture agreement by the end of next year or early in 2013, Qatari Oil Minister Mohammed al-Sada told reporters in the country’s capital. The project would be completed in 2017, he said. The Shell venture would not replace one that Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) proposed two year ago, and the country plans more petrochemicals projects, al-Sada said. He estimated the Shell complex’s costs at $6.4 billion. OPEC-member Qatar is the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas. The heads of agreement sets the scope and commercial principals for the project, which would include a steam cracker and a mono-ethylene glycol plant with a capacity of 1.5 million metric tons a year, Qatar Petroleum and Shell said in a statement. The complex would be able to produce 300,000 tons a year of linear alpha olefins, they said. lp block it, he said. (Bloomberg)
In Brief: Even though BDI increased as an effect of the increase on the Capes, the rest of the sectors experienced a decline on the rates. All in all, BDI gained 57 points, BCI gained 326 points, BPI lost 69 points, BSI lost 43 point, and BHSI lost 12 points. Capes: Week began slowly but soon activity increased at both basins. Rates in the Atlantic basin increased as an effect of the improvement on the Fronthaul trips. Rates for trips to F.East concluded at USD 52.000 per day, while rates for Transatlantic round concluded at USD 29.500 per day. On the Tubarao/Qingdao trade rates increased at USD 28.80-29.00pmt. In the Pacific basin, there was higher level of activity from the Atlantic with the iron ore majors fixing around 12-15 vessels, and rates for the Australia/China trade fluctuating between USD 11.30 – 12.50pmt, while some rumours saying that a few fixtures concluded close to USD 13.00 pmt. On TCT basis, rates for Pacific round also improved and concluded at USD 25.000 per day basis N.China delivery. Panamax: Week began as previous week ended, with rates moving downwards. In the Atlantic basin there were not many fresh cargoes in the market and tonnage started building up. Many Owners preferred to fix their vessels for 2/3 laden legs at rates around USD 15.500-16.000 per day, while there were also some vessels ballasting towards USG. At week’s end, rates for trips ex USG to F.East concluded at USD 26.000+600.000 GBB basis APS USG, while on the standard Fronthaul rates concluded at USD 25.000per day. For those who preferred to remain in the Atlantic, rates for Transatlantic round concluded at USD 15.500per day. In the Pacific basin there were not many Indonesian coal cargoes and the tonnage availability was getting larger day by day. Some vessels in S.China/ S.E.Asia claimed that they were holding between USD 8.000-10.000 for one trip via Indonesia with coal. On the other hand, we witnessed some fixtures reported ex N.China for a trip via Nopac at rates between USD 10 - 11.250 per day, while rumours say that another vessel was fixed USD 12.750 per day basis N.China delivery ( Calipso, 73.691/05’)
Supramax: Atlantic held tight, but Pacific continued to slide.
Market in the Atlantic basin managed to remain more or less steady, but activity decreased. Still USG region pays the most with rates for trip to continent/East Mediterranean remaining at USD mid 20’s per day, while for trips to F.East fixtures reported at USD low/mid 30’s per day. Ex Continent, rates for trips to East Mediterranean/ Bl.Sea concluded at USD low 20’s per day. On the Fronthaul trade, rates for trips ex Continent concluded at USD low/mid 20’s per day, while trips ex Bl.Sea via G.O.A concluded at USD very high 20’s per day. Pacific basin saw rates decreasing as there was not so much cargo volume to cover the tonnage supply, and soon the available cargoes covered. Positions in S.China/S.E.Asia interested for Indonesian coal to China were fixed at rates around USD 6-7.000per day. On the other hand, for the N.China positions, there were not many cargoes ex NOPAC, and many Charterers were offering something around USD 2-4.000 per day for Indonesia round, or something around USD 6-7.000 per day for trip to India.
Handysize: Rates remained at same levels, without many changes. In the Atlantic region we could see just a few cargoes from East Mediterranean/Bl.Sea but there were also many vessels in the area. Rates for trips to F.East concluded at USD high teen’s per day, while those who preferred to remain in the Atlantic could see around USD 11-13.000 for trip to W.Africa. In the Pacific basin, market remained quiet with many vessels being in N.China. There were some parcels of steels or cement/clinker to Bangladesh or S.E.Asia. Charterers who had available cargoes could pick up vessels and they were rating at levels around USD 4.500-5.000 per day.
Dry Bulk - Chartering
3
Baltic Indices – Dry Market (*Friday’s closing values)
