Weekly Technical Analysis 13TH MAY 2013

7/28/2019 Weekly Technical Analysis 13TH MAY 2013

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Weekly Technical Analysis

13 May 2013

- By Vivek Patil, India's foremost expert in Elliot Wave Analysis

Sensex up 2.8%, ITC contributed 405 of Sensex gain. Union Railway and Law Ministers resign. IIP rose 2.5% during 'March. Diesel prices raised by 90 paise per litre. Union Railway and Law Ministers submit resignations. Govt looking to divest Rs.20000 cr shares in Coal India. Services PMI plunges to 18-month low during 'April. China and India end Ladakh standoff. Congress wins Karnataka state election. Nawaj Sharif wins elections in Pakistan.

Top Stories of the Week

Rally to stall if previous low breaks, and fails to turn secular

[Technical readings carried forward from previous weeks are shown in italics. Readers can easily identify the new arguments which arewritten in regular font]

Last week we discussed, Now that rate-cut cycle is on, one would expect market to move down. Watch if it does break into lower lows Sensex crossed the 61.8% retracement level the current rally would now be marked as b, instead of x -wave it is generallyuseful to be cautious near any 80% retracement level bias still remains +ve as long as the Daily chart maintains higher High-Low we may remain in day-trading mode, and watch if the market actually confirms a top by weakening/closing below previouscandle there nothing against b correcting more than 80% of a Strength above the 80% mark would either mean that bis good for more, OR the rally if actually a g wave of the alternate structure

Sensex maintained +ve bias during the week, by holding Higher Lows till Saturday (special trading session). It also made a HigherHigh on each day of the week, and finished 546 pts or 2.8% higher. While all sectors ended in Green, FMCG, Auto and Bank Indexesoutperformed with 4% to 5% gains. Over 40% of what Sensex gained came from ITC alone.

Sensex has maintained Higher Low consistently for 17 trading session so far in this rally. Thats a record. This looks +ve, b utat the same time, appears a bit overstretched for a safe bullish bet.

During the week, ITC surged by about 24 Rupees. This stock contributes about 9.62 Sensex points for every Rupee it gains.Therefore, of the 546 points that Sensex gained during the week, ITC contributed about 230 Sensex points, or over 40% .

Indeed, of the 2000 points that Sensex gained in this rally (from 18144 to 20146) so far, ITC alone contributed over 675 points by gaining70-odd Rupees during this period.

From another perspective, this also highlights the selective nature of the market. While the heavyweights get propelled to hold themainline Index at higher levels, now almost touching 2013 highs, the BSE Small-Cap Index still languishes near its Nov12lows.


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We, therefore, may remain +ve with due caution. This rally is not secular, at least till now, but as we had argued, not even -veuntil it breaks and closes below previous day.

Previously on 29th

Jan and 19th

Mar, when RBI cut the rates, market had dropped violently. This time, however, market did drop on theday of rate-cut, i.e. on 3

rdMay, but it remained only a one-day affair.

Sensex not only recovered above the solitary Bear candle on the day of rate-cut, but also crossed 80% retracement level to 3-month fallpost Jan13 high, and is moving closer the highs again.

Though the Sensex rally appears overbought, overstretched, the bias remains +ve until we see the action weakening andclosing below previous day from hereon.

Break and close below previous day would, however, be an initial sign of maturity.

We also need to see faster retracement of last segment of rally, followed by lower top lower bottom formation on the DailyClose chart thereafter.

The lower-degree structure inside the rally appears to be a Complex Corrective consisting of similar rallying segments, none owhich is extended so far. Such similarity in rallying segments is symptomatic of a Complex Corrective, which usually gets channelwell. It appears that the rally consists of a Diametric as 1

stCorrective AND Triangle or Diametric in the 2

nd.

The rally will be assumed complete when its last rallying segment is retraced completely in time faster than the time consumed

by the last rallying segment.

Structurally, the current rally continues to carry label of b wave inside the larger E wave from Jan13 onwards, which is probablyforming as a 3-legged a-b-c flat. As said, all 3 leg of a Flat tend towards equality.

Alternatively, the current rally could be marked as g wave of a still unfinished D wave from Dec11 . In this, D is considered a 7-legged Bow-Tie Diametric, and g will be its last upward leg.

This alternative was discussed much earlier, when the move from Nov12 to Jan13 we assumed as Terminal failed to get retraced in50% time. Probability of this alternative would increase above Jan13 high of 20204.

We have been considering the development since Jan13 as E or the 5thleg of the larger Diametric from 2008 onwards . We also

suspected thatE could develop over a per iod of 13 months. Structurally, E could d evelop either as a Flat or Comp lex Correctiveinvo lv ing x-wave.

The near 3-month fa l l from 29thJan to 15

thApr w as analyzed as a 7-legged Diamon d-Shaped Diametric. Each lower-degree wave

inside this Diametric, i.e. a-b-c-d-e-f-g, consumed about 8 days each, and its total period was 52 days (about 8 days multiplied by 7waves).

The Diametric looks bulging in the middle, which provides it with a Diamond-like shape. Further, a-wave and g-wave of th eDiametric were almo st equal, price-wise as well as time-wise, like we argued.

Under Wave Theory, the standard c orrectives are Zigzag, Flat and Triangle. Though not mentioned in Glenn Neelys Book MasterinElliott, a 7-legged Diametric is also con sidered one com plete label-3 correc tive.

A Diametric is a very tradable pattern once identi f ied correctly, like we did since Feb13 onwards. Its identification symptoms


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includ ed time-simi lar i ty amid st i ts internal legs, and co rrective (label-3) a-wave fol low ed by sub -norm al b-wave.

Since Diametric is absent from the book, many seem to ignore its existence. It is basically made-up of two Triangles.

While Contracting Triangle followed by Expanding Triangle would shape-up as Bow-Tie Diametric, Expanding Triangle followed byContracting Triangle would shape-up as Diamond-Shaped Diametric.

On one higher degree, the Diametric from Jan13, which completed last Monday, could either be the 1stCorrective or a wave

inside the larger E.

If the Diametric is a wave, then the current rally is part of b. However, if the Diametric is the 1stCorrective, then the current rally is anx-wave. Impl ication s for the ral ly wo uld be different in these two alternatives.

If the current rally is b of E, then it would retrace more than 61.8% of a, and also consume more time than a. However,i f the current ral ly is on ly an x-wave, i t would b e a short affair time-wise, and cannot retrace mo re than 61.8% of the 1

st

correct ive.

The 48-day ral ly from 20thNov12 was completely retraced exactly in 48 days. This amounts to faster retracement of Impulse

we had assumed ins ide the 5thof c inside the larger D. This can be considered as confirmation of the larger bearish

assumptions we discussed from time to time since Jan13 top.

The action has also b roken b elow the 200-day Expo nential (EMA) as wel l as Simple (SMA) Moving A verages, and ind eed closedbelow them for the first time since Jul12.Decisive break of 200-day MA levels is general ly cons idered by many as existence of

a Bear phase.

Indeed, 200-day MA break is a major, and perhaps t he only technic al parameter, understo od by p eople who general ly fol lowFundam entals otherwise. For the fol low ers of Technical Analysis, how ever, suc h 200-day signal ing a Bear phase comes too

late.

With the help of Technical An alysis, remember, we were able to pin-point that a major top would be made during Jan13, below20303, and Sensex ob l iged.

Multi-Year long Diametric Formation

It was argued that allmul t i - fo ld ra l lies would b e fo l lowed by m ul t i -year long conso l idat ions. Sensex, remember, rose 11-fold during

1988 to 1992, but entered a 11-year consolidation thereafter.

Again, during 2003 to 2008 it multiplied 7 times. Drawing similarity, it could a 7-year consolidation starting 2008. Further, thecon sol idation , may shape up l ike a 7-legged Diametric, similar to the consolidation seen from 1992 to 2003.

The Diametric formation from 2008 is also suspected because each of i ts in terna l legs, except B, have consum ed about 13 monthsso far. So, the E wave from Jan13 could also co nt inue for about 13 months, and end som ewhere around Feb-Mar14.

This long- term picture w as f is t publ ished on6

th

Feb2012, with both D legs highlighted in Purple color rectangles. In the previousinstance, the D leg during 1996-97 had retraced as much as 97% of its preceding C leg. In the current instance, D retraced 84% of C.

Long-term corrective phase on Dows chart also appears to be a probable 7- legged Diametric. Instead of Bow-Tie Diametric onSensex,Dows Diametric is shaping up as Diamond -Shaped Diametric.


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Jan-Mar Topping Cycle

During Dec12, it was pointed out thatmajor tops occurred du r ing Jan-Mar period in th e last 13 years.

More than half the times, the top also occurred during the month of January. Based on this, it was argued that Sensex could hit amajor top during Jan13, and it did.

This cycle may be the result of NAV pop-up exercise in the last month of the Calendar Year. Jan13 was the 7thsuch top forming in

the month of Jan.

Performance of the Broader Market

The broader market has, general ly, und er-performed the main Index since the year 2008, as can be checked on the chart below.

Indeed, the broader Mid-Cap and Small-Cap Indices have also broken 0-b lines of the upward D leg, shown in White on the chart. The


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Small-cap Index even broke its Jun12 levels marked in Blue, i.e. gave a faster retracement to the c part of post-Dec11 rally.

While the Sensex itsel f retraced 84% of i t p receding 13-month fall from Nov10 to Dec11, BSE Small-Cap Index retraced on ly38.2%, and h as, in fact, reacted heavi ly from t his retracement level.

The divergence between Sensex and broader mark et appears to be Index management activi ty, as the Sensex is held by th e

Index heavy-weights, whi le the broader shows distr ibut ion. This whole th ing, however, made for a tr icky and un comfor tab le

trad ing envi ronment.

NEoWave Discussions

Inside the D leg from Dec11 to Jan13, we had had assumed a 3-legged a-b-c Flat. The c part was a 5-legged Impulse, inside which,5thleg (beginning Nov12) was assumed to be a Terminal.

Based on NEoWave requirements, it was argued that Sensex would drop below Nov12 lows in 50% time of the 48-day longTerminal. Index eventually did drop below Nov12, but took 48 day or 100% time (instead of 50%).

As an abundant precaution, therefore, fo l low ing alternate wave-structure was suggested for the D leg from Dec11, according towhic h, D is sti l l developin g as a 7-legged Bo w-Tie Diametric. This structure, however, turns valid only if Jan13 highs arebroken, not otherwise.

In the alternate scenario, c ended at Oct12 high, and it was equal to a leg. The d was the smallest segment, and e (i.e.pos t -Nov12 rally) was a Double Combination which ended in Jan13.

The channel enclosing the a-b-c Flat inside the larger D leg from Dec2011 onwards was shown on the chart below.

The 80% retracement level was considered and marked as a pattern impl ic ation for the 13-mo nth lon g Double Comb ination

mo ve marked as C. Pattern impl ications , how ever, cannot be str ict ly implem ented for the legs of Triangle and Diametric, whic h

are exceptio ns to the general rules.


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Inside c of D (beginning Jun12) for Sensex, we were expecting a 5-legged Im pulse, because Flat is a 3-3-5 structure.

As per NEoWave Extension rule, one of the directional leg inside an Impulse should get extended, i.e. achieve 161.8% ratio to thenext largest leg.

Since 1stand 3rdwere normal, we could have projected 5th wave Extension. However, such a move would project values slightly abovethe Nov10 highs, which would jeopardize the larger assumption of Bow-Tie shaped Diametric from 2008 onwards.

We, therefore, preferred 5thof c not to achieve 161.8% ratio, but terminate below Nov10 highs, from where a downward E

would open.Since E begins the expanding phase of the Bow-Tie Diametric, it would break below Dec11 lows.

The 1st

and 3rd

inside c of D continued for about 4-5 weeks each. We expected 5th

to consume a similar time, and end somewhere inthe month of Dec12 or near to it.

As the beginn ing part of 5thshow s vio lence on upside, we suspected 5

thcou ld develop internal ly as a 1

stExtension Impulse or

Terminal. Since a Terminal always occurs at major turning point, it would be able to generate the necessary downside power for thelarger E leg.

NEoWave, remember, allows exceptions to rules at important market turning points or under unusual conditions, like end oflarger patterns or last wave, such as a Terminal.

Also, Triangles and Termin als are exception s to virt ual ly al l rules. Since Diametric pattern is m ade up of Triangles, NEoWaveException Rule is also applicable to these patterns.

Since we w ere at animportant turning point in Jan13, and dealing with Terminal and legs of Diametric, perhaps patternimpl icat ion ru les could n ot be sat is f ied to the fu l l extent .

Does it real ly matter wh ether the Sensex achieves the pattern imp l ication accu rately within t he time-price parameters, when th

general direction of the secular market has been largely -ve as we suspected since Dec12 ?

As we argued, the larger bear phase is already visible in the broader market. Since Dec12 we turned cautious as the rallies were

getting smaller (shaping into a Terminal), and also because of the Jan topping cycle (discussed separately).

Sensex, consumed 59 weeks to retrace 84% of i ts preceding 13-mo nth fal l , which also w as a 59-week affair, as shown on thechart below :


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The rally, according ly, was consid ered slower, corrective stru ctur e as per NEoWave, and not as part of any fresh ral ly.

As per NEoWave, most channeled moves enclose a Complex Corrective structure involving x wave. Complex Correct ive invo lv ing 2correct ives, joined by one x wave, is called a Double Combination, and carries a pattern implication of not more than about80%.

Further, as depicted on the chart below, since Nov10, it has been generally useful to consider 61.8% to 80% retracement area ascrucia l for terminat ing m oves.

The post-Nov12 rally is now retraced by 100% on Sensex, but more than 100% on broader indices. The larger picture ofDiametric from 2008 onwards is, therefore, considered still valid.

That would mean 13-month long D-leg has ended at Jan13 highs, and 13-month long E-leg started thereafter. Only a move above

Nov10 / Jan08 highs can make the larger picture invalid. Please see the monthly chart of Sensex showing the larger Diametric from2008.

BSE Dollex-30 Index


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Meanwhile, since the FII activity turned a prominent factor in the Indian stock market, we examined the development ofBSE Do l lex-30Index, which s howed a Head & Shoulders form at ionaround Oct12 on its Daily chart.

Its downsides laterachieved the Head-to-Neckl ine projection on dow nside, as we expected. Since the projection level alsomatch ed with i ts 200-day EMA, we susp ected some pul l -back to the Neckl ine.

As c an be seen on the Dol lex-30 chart below , the Index reco vered back to it s Neckl ine level for the 2nd

t ime, but has now

reacted from heavi ly from th e Neckl ine.

The Index protected its Nov12 lows, and bounced back to break the Red falling resistance line, and is now testing 80%retracement level to Jan-Apr fall, just like Sensex.

Yearly lows

Sensex has broken 2010 low of 15652, and now in 2012 is found holding the 2011 low of 15136.

As the past instances wou ld show , once the year ly low gets broken, a min imum of 20% cut from th e low has been a usual

phenomeno n, though gr adual ly. A 20% magnitude redu ced from 15652 wou ld calculate to abou t 12500 for Sensex.

This level has not been tou ched so far , but sh ould b e remembered as a cruc ia l leve l which matches w i th the huge gap -up

action (refer to the Weekly chart disc uss ing 32-week cycle) seen during the 2009.


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32-Week time cycle

The development since Mar09 has followed a 32-week t im e cycle, as shown on the chart below.

This was used for ra is ing a possib i l i ty that an important low w ould be formed around 20thAug11. Sensexresponded by hi t t ing

the bottom on 26thAug.

This cycle had also raised the possibility of an upward/sideways phase that could survive for 32 weeks from Aug11, and endeither on 4

thFeb12 or 31

s tMar12, developing as a ranged movement like the Left Shoulder . The upward phase ended dur ing

Feb12 as per this cycle.

Going by the structural possibilities from this cycle, it was suspected that Sensex could be forming an e leg of a possible

Extracting Triangle, which would remain smaller than the c leg. The e leg did remain smaller as suspected.

As we already know, Extract ing Tr iangle is a pattern w hich sho ws smal ler ral l ies and bigg er drops. Thus in one direction, it showse < c < a, and in the opposite direction, it shows d > b.


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Above 18000, Right Should er became bigger that the Left Shoulder, which appeared rejecting the Head & shou lders orExtracting Triangle argument. However, the 32-week time cycle may remain val id as a cycle even from here.

The Sensex was seen testing the Neckline shown on the c hart , which did prove crucia l , as Sensex bo unced severa l t imesfrom the Neckl ine.

Ano ther idea would be to mark the entire developm ent as a Diametric, instead of Extracting Triangle, and the same is now

marked on the chart . These assumpt ions ind icate an incom plete B, but con f i rms only on faster drop below the Neckl ine, which

is sti l l awaited.

30% Principle

Al l major tops are character ized by 30% drop from the top value. This is n ormal not only ins ide a bear phase, but is comm onlyseen even inside a bul l phase too . The 30% taken out from the current t op v alue on Sensex (21109) wo uld be less than 14800.

The total loss s o far, from th e high of 21109 to 15425, measures arou nd 28% so far. However, on B SE Small-Cap and MidCapIndex, the loss from 2010 high d oes measure more than 30%.

Overal l , i t was argued mu ch earl ier, that we wou ld see a topp ing form ation spread over 2-3 month period beginning Oct10.This played out well as suspected. Indeed, as was observed, 60% of stocks topped out during Oct10 itself, and many haveal ready sh aved off much more than 30%, though Sensex i tsel f shaved off on ly 28%.

Comparison with Jan'08 top formation

We compared the 2010 topping formation to the movement from Oct07 to Jan08, a 2.5 month periodjust bef o re the h ig h o f21206 was hit on Sensex. This was also an extremely vo lati le periodof nearly two months, just before the market actually topped out.

The followingchart of 2008 period shows two equidistant parallel channels. The Sensex broke abo ve the original channel andachieved an equidistant h eight at the upper paral lel , before reacting low er into a bear phase.

One may observe the volatile development once it reached closer to the upper parallel. Inside this volatility, the market faced number ofsell-offs beginning Oct07, before it finally topped on 8

thJan08.


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Asimilarity can be drawn for the 2010 top formation with the developments of 2008, as shown below.

2450-point Grid chart for the Sensex

Sensex has been fol low ing a Grid of 2450-2500 points since 2008. These Grids are shown on the Weekly chart of Sensex below.One can find a bottom or a top getting formed at each of the Grid levels. Index is now re-testing the Grid level at 20250.


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The larger picture

Our markets, remember, has seen mu lti fo ld ral l ies previous ly, each time con tinuin g for about 4 (four) years, after which, i t

usual ly enters a mu lt i -year cons ol idation ph ase. In other words, long-term has always meant 4 years in Indian context.

Remember, Sensex rallied11-fold from 390 (Mar88) to 4546 (Apr92) in four years, after which itconso l idated fo r 11 years from1992 to 2003.

In 2008, it completed another 4-year rally from 2003, during which Sensex rose 7-fold from 3000 levels to 21000. It may nowconsolidate for 7 year, beginning 2008, preferably forming as a Triangle or Diametric.

We explained that the 14-month fall from Jan08 was a Triple Combination A leg of a large multi-year cons ol idation. Thecorrect ive phase beginn ing Mar09 retraced about 99% of the previous fallfrom 21206 (Jan09) to 8867 (Mar09), (which waslabeled as a Triple Combination).The longer time required while rallying is symptomatic of its corrective label of B.

The ral ly from 8047 (actual ly b eginning at 8867) was, therefore, considered as the B leg. The next leg downwards would be

labeled as C.Such a-b-c development since Jan08 would be considered part of the 2

nd

wave of wh at appears as a probableTerminalbeginning 2003.

Even though wesaw the market reaching levels above Jan08 highs, the multi-year cons ol idation is expected to shape up l ikelarge decade-long Diametric, looking similar to the consolidation we saw from 1992 to 2003. Our trading/investm ent strategiesshould be designed accord ing ly .

The suspected corrective phase beginning Jan08 would be the 2nd

wave with in the larger 5thwave. This 5

thwave is suspected to

be forming as a Terminal due to absence of impuls ive behavior in i ts in terna l 1stwave. The Terminal confirms when the Sensex

drops below the 2-4 line of one higher degree.

One may see the Yearly chart in Appendix, which shows the 2-4 line and its values for the next three years. Remember, Terminaldevelopm ent usu al ly violates the 2-4 l ine.

The Sensex is assumed to be under the influence of a large 8-year cycle ever since its birth. As shown on the chart below, '1984 wasthe beginnin g of 8-year long bu l l -run ti l l '1992. In our Super-Cycle Degree count, shown on ASA Long-Term chart under a separateparagraph, weve considered 1984 as the beginning point for the most dynamic 3rd wave.

The next two important turn ing points occ urred exact ly 8 yearsthereaft er, in '1992 and '2000. Both these turning points weremarked by stock market scams, because of which, the leaders of the rally had extremely difficult time later. For example, ACC, theleading stock of '1992 bull market, remained below its highs till end of '2004. Similarly, the IT stocks, which were leaders of '2000 rally,lost as much as 90% of their top valuations by the year '2003.

During 2008, we were sitting on this very important cycle, which therefore, threw up similar possibilities.

In the previous 8-year cycle top during 1992, Sensex lost 57% from 4546 to 1980. In the next cycle top, the cut w as almost 58%from 6150 in 2000 to 2594 in 2001 .

We had, accordingly, targeted sub -10k levels for Sensexprice-wise during 2008-09, and a minimum of 13 mon ths in to bear phase,time-wise. The price-time targets were achieved as Sensex dropped 63% from 21206 to 7697. The yearly channel, shown below, whichwas used earlier to project 20000 level for the Sensex during 2007, was broken when the Index moved below 17200. Break of th islong-term ch annel also w eighed in favor of a larger correctiv e phase fol low ing this 8-year cyc le.


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App endix : Super-Cycle-degree Wave-scenarios for Sensex

For Super-Cycle-Degree wave-scenario, consider following ASA Long-Term Index. This Index has been created by combining a very oldIndex compiled by a British advisor (from '1938 to '1945), with RBI Index ('1945 to '1969), F.E Index ('1969 to '1980) and Sensex(thereafter till date).

The wave-count presented shows that the market is into the lower-degree 5th of the SC-degree 3rd

or 5th

wave.

The detailed wave-count from 1984 onwards can be seen on the Monthly chart given below. The 2-4 line shown on the ASA long-termChart above, and Monthly chart below, would determine if the post 1984 Impulse is a Super-cycle-degree 3

rdor 5

th.


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Super-Cycle-Degree 3rd

(or 5th) began since Nov84. Its internal 3

rdwas an extended leg, which achieved exactly 261.8% ratio to the 1

st

on log scale. The Sensex is now forming the 5thWave, and the same could develop as a Terminal, because its lower-degree 1

stwave

from May03 onwards developed as a Diametric (which is a corrective structure, rather than an impulse). Within the non -directionallegs, 2nd was exactly 61.8% of 1st value-wise, and 161.8% time-wise. The 4th was 38.2% of 3rd value-wise, and 261.8% time-wise.

While the 4th is shown as a 3-legged a-b-c Flat on the monthly chart above. Alternatively, the 4 th is shown as a 7-legged a-b-c-d-e-f-gBow-Tie Diametric on the Monthly chart below. The chart below also shows 11-year parallel channel from Apr'1992 to May'2003. Asshown, if one projects the width of this channel on upper side, such a projection gave 20000 as the minimum target. This fo recast wasachieved.

.

As mentioned above, the lower-degree 1stfrom May2003 to Jan2008 appears to be a Bow-Tie Diametric, marked as a-b-c-d-e-f-g. It is

called "Diametric" because it combines two Triangular patterns, one initially Contracting up to the "d" leg, followed by an Expandingone. The contraction point is the "d" leg, and the legs on either sides of it tend to be equal. Accordingly, "c" and "e" were equal in "log

scale", both showing about 60% gains. Similarly, "g" was equal to "a", both showing about 115% gain.

The Diametric development from 2003 to2008 is considered to be the 1st wave of the Impuse. Due to the corrective structure in the 1st

leg, the higher-degree 5thcould be developing as a Terminal. Since 2008, we are into its 2nd wave, which could continue to develop

over a period of 7-8 years beginning 2008.


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As per NEoWave, break of 2-4 line confirms a Terminal development, and If the 5th

proves to be a Terminal, the Super-Cycle-degreelabel of 3

rdwill have to change to 5

th, because only a 5

thof a 3

rdcannot be a Terminal. Only a 5

thof the 5

thcan be a Terminal. The Super

Cycle-Degree marking for 1st

and 2nd

as shown on ASA long-term chart, would then change to 3rd

and 4th

respectively.

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Weekly Technical Analysis 13TH MAY 2013

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