WEEKLY TECHNICAL REVIEW 8th Sept 2014

Lionel Duverger, CFTe Oscar Germade, CFTe Maxime Viémont, CFTe

EQUITY MARKETS S&P 500 Still Bullish

EUROSTOXX 50 Back to resistance

DAX 30 Back to resistance

CAC 40 Back to resistance

IBEX 35 Back to resistance

STOCKS NATIXIS Breakout

VINCI Underperformance

HAVAS Breakout

BOND - FOREX - COMMODITIES T-NOTES Neutral

BUND Toppish

EUR/USD Bearish stance

CCI INDEX Back to support

BRENT Buy the dips

GOLD Bearish stance

CHART OF THE WEEK INSURANCE Breakout

S&P 500

Resistances : 2010 / 2040 / 2065

Supports : 1945 / 1900 / 1863

Main scenario: We keep our long term bullish bias as the index is still trading in a bullish channel. Our short term bias is more cautious because the upside seems to be smaller and smaller (close to the channel’s top part), and also because the short term momentum is decelerating. We stands ready to buy any dip closer to the 1945 long term support area.

Alternative scenario: Below 1900, the correction should be deeper towards the 200-day MA.

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EUROSTOXX 50

3

Resistances: 3290/ 3325 / 3400

Supports: 3200 / 3130 / 2980-3000

Main scenario:

In early August the ES50 has reached the 2980 long term support (38% log June 2013-June 2014 + previous bottoms in early 2014). The last weeks bounce has been stronger than expected. So strong that the RSI is close to enter in overbought area, above 70. These levels makes us more cautious, even if there is no bearish signal yet. Alternative scenario: Above 3325, the next resistance area is around 3400.

DAX 30

Resistances: 9800 / 10030

Supports: 9400 / 8900

Main scenario:

In early August the DAX has reached the 8900 long term support. The last weeks bounce has been stronger than expected. Now the Dax is challenging the 9800 medium term resistance. These levels make us more cautious, even if there is no bearish signal yet. Alternative scenario: Above 9800, the next resistance is at 10030.

4

CAC 40

5

Resistances : 4500 / 4600

Supports: 4400 / 4300 / 4100

Main scenario:

In early August the CAC has reached the 4100 long term support. The last weeks bounce has been stronger than expected. So strong that the RSI is close to enter in overbought area, above 70. These levels make us more cautious, even if there is no bearish signal yet. Alternative scenario: Above 4500, the next resistance area is around 4600.

IBEX 35

6

Resistances: 11249 Supports: 10700 / 10600 / 10400 Main scenario: Our short-term view was wrong. Even if we can’t rule out a taking profit phase towards 10700/10600, the medium-term remains bullish. We advise to buy the dips ideally around 10700/10600 zone. Alternative scenario: The breakout of 11249, on weekly close, would resume the long-term trend.

T-NOTE USA 10 YR

7

Resistances: 127,031 / 128,063 Supports: 125,172 / 124,406 Main scenario: Last year, T-note has completed a distribution phase as we suggested. So, a H&S was confirmed. Such patterns are reversal patterns. So we expect more downside pressure in the coming months. Medium-term target @ 120 without ruling out 116. In the short-term, we are still in a sideways move between 126,5 and 122,219. The breakdown of 125,172 should resume the downtrend.

Alternative scenario: The breakout of 128.063, on monthly close, will jeopardize this negative view.

BUND

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Resistances: 151,83 / 152,65 Supports: 150,4 / 147,74 Main scenario: In the short term, Bund remains stronger than expected. Above 150,4 it trades in a bullish stance. Nevertheless, due to overbought conditions, we still believe that a correction is very likely in the coming weeks. So, 150,4 is a key pivot zone in the short term. We still expect sideways moves in the coming months into a large degree distribution phase.

Alternative scenario: The breakout of 151,83 could trigger a price extension towards 152,65.

EUR/USD

9

Resistances: 1,3221 / 1,3445 / 1,3993

Supports: 1,3102 / 1,2753

Main scenario:

Below 1,3993, our bearish long-term

stance has started.

Our medium-term target is located @

1,2750.

Last week, Eur has broken down

1,3102 which resumed the downtrend

again. Even if we can’t rule out a short-

term rebound, a breakout of 1,3154 is

required to favor a bullish reversal

Alternative scenario:

The breakout of 1,3993 will jeopardize

this medium-term negative view.

CONTINUOUS COMMODITY INDEX

10

Resistances: 26,73 / 27,94 / 28,93

Supports: 25,93 / 25,09 Main scenario:

In early February, our A-B-C corrective

move was completed. The medium term

trend is in a recovery phase.

Medium-term target @ 31/32 (38%/50%

Fibo 36,51/25,09).

CCI is now on a double key support:

# bullish trend line 2009-2013

# bearish trend line 2011-2014.

Last week, CCI has started a rebound. Alternative scenario:

The breakdown of 25,93, on weekly

close, would jeopardize this positive view.

BRENT

11

Resistances: 106,85 / 112,83 / 115,71

Supports: 101 / 96,75 / 88,49

Main scenario:

We consider that Brent is in a large degree and complex consolidation phase between 119,17 and 96,75. In the short term, Brent is testing the 103 key support. Due to oversold conditions we still expect a rebound. Moreover, a divergence is forming on daily RSI (14). We favour a bullish reversal above 103.

Alternative scenario:

The breakdown of 101, on weekly close, would jeopardize this short-term positive view.

GOLD

12

Resistances: 1322 / 1390 / 1434

Supports: 1240 / 1180

Main scenario: Last year, as we suggested, Gold has broken down its bullish long term trend. So, we remain in a bearish stance for this year. Long term target @ 1033 / 681 (2008 top & bottom). As we suggested in recently reports a likely rebound could be vulnerable. Now, Gold is trading sideways between 1322-1240. The break down of 1240 should resume the downtrend. Alternative scenario: The breakout of 1434 would jeopardize our medium term negative view.

NATIXIS – KN FP

Resistances: 5,70 / 6,22 Supports: 5,22 / 4,75 Main scenario: This stock has broken out a key resistance in late August which has resumed the long-term trend. Our target is located around 6,22. Alternative scenario: Only a pullback below the 200-day MA will jeopardize this positive view.

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VINCI - DG FP

Resistances: 52 / 57 Supports: 46 / 43 Main scenario: In July, the stock has broken the bullish trend in place since April 2013. The recent sell-off has found a support @ 38% Fibo, which alternates with the previous consolidation phase in 2012 (62% Fibo). We believe that Vinci should continue its sideways consolidation phase in the coming months which should lead towards more underperformance (death cross on the chart below). Alternative scenario: Under 46, the consolidation should continue towards 43.

14

CAIXABANK – CABK SQ

Resistances: 5,46- 5,6 / 6,44 Supports: 4,75 / 4,2 Main scenario: Last week, this stock has broken out a strong resistance after 8 months of consolidation. We believe that this breakout has resumed the long-term trend through a wave V. Our first target zone is located around 5,5. Alternative scenario: Only a throwback below the 200-day will jeopardize our positive view.

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INSURANCE – SXIE INDEX

Resistances: 222-226 / 250 Supports: 210 / 200 Main scenario: This sector has triggered a breakout above a strong resistance zone after 8 months of consolidation. This breakout should resume the long-term for the coming weeks, ideally as a wave V. Alternative scenario: Only a pullback above its 200-day MA will jeopardize this positive view.

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DISCLAIMER

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