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Hydro-Hegemony in the Amu Darya basinHydro-Hegemony in the Amu Darya basin

K i W i hKai Wegerich

kai.wegerich@wur.nl

06.05.06

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Storyboard

Geographical Background

Soviet Hydro-Hegemony

Hydro Hegemony after independenceHydro Hegemony after independenceWater allocationProvision Structures in the basinProvision Structures in the basin

Expanding theoretical framework

Conclusion

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Geography: The Amu Darya BasinG

Amu Darya River Scheme Vakhsh River

Garm

VakshKaratag-Shirkent

Kzylsu River

Central HPP

Perepadnaya HPP

Rogun HPP

Nurek HPP

Baipaza HPP

Golovnaya HPPYavan River

Upper-Kafirnigan Lower-

Kafirnigan Pyandj Gorno-Badakhshan

Surkhandarya

Kafirnigan River

Surkhandarya River

Amuzang River

Kunduz River

Pyandj RiverKzylsu River

Sherabad River

Amudarya River

M Akh lKashkadarya

Kashkadarya RiverZarafshanKarakum Canal

Mary Akhal

Karshi

Kashkadarya

Talimarjan

Zeid

Samarkand

NavoiSultanag

Amu-Bukhara Canal

Karshi Main Canal

Lebap

Bukhara Parsankul Darganata HP

S b i HP

Tuyamuyun

SouthKarakalpakstan

NorthK k l k t

Khorezm

Dashkhovuz

Right Bank Canal Left Bank Canal Tashauz Branch

Samanbai HPKarakalpakstan

Aral Sea

LegendRiversReservoirsHydropower Plants (HPP)

Intakes into PZ

Hydroposts (HP)Discharges into PZ

Planning Zones (PZ)In TajikistanIn Turkmenistan

In Uzbekistan

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Amu DaryaLength 2540 kmLength 2540 km

Catchment 309 000 km2Catchment 309 000 km

Annual flow 73.6 km³, variation between 47 and ,108 km³

Originates Vakjdjir Pass, Afghanistan

Ri i t t Af h i t K tRiparian states: Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

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Soviet Hydro-Hegemony

Russia: focus on cotton production in CA

Soviet Union no change in agricultural focus

Khrushchev: virgin land policy in 1953

Hydraulic mission (pump stations, canals, upstream reservoir)upstream reservoir)

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Soviet: ‘hydraulic mission’

Infrastructure:Dam build in Tajikistan ( t 10 5 k ³)(storage 10.5 km³)Pump stations build in Turkmenistan to pump water to Uzbekistan (350 m³ /sec, 170m; 270 m³ /sec, 57m) )

Increase of irrigated land 1965: 4 5 million ha1965: 4.5 million ha1991: 7 million ha

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Soviet Hydro-Hegemony

Central control in Moscow

Two-fold subordination sectorial (irrigated agriculture)Two-fold subordination sectorial (irrigated agriculture) and national

“Th t t i f t t d i d f“The water management infrastructure was designed for a unifying purpose and placed where it made sense geologically”geo og ca y

Strategy: “divide and rule”

But: upstream dam, only function of energy production

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Soviet: water agreementSetting limits: March 12 1987 (Kyrgyzstan TajikistanSetting limits: March 12, 1987 (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan)

“it appears that the available annual flow of 61.5 km³ assumed diversion by Afghanistan at that time of 2.1 km³ ”km .

In 1977 Afghan delegation went to Tashkent, to claim l h f th A d (ICG t t t 50% fequal share of the Amu darya (ICG report states 50% of

agreed upon in 1946), but no agreements exist

no agreement on the amount Afghanistan is contributing, estimates vary from 10 to 20 km³

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Different data sets: Amu Darya

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Future plans on agriculture:T k i t l d i d i i t d bTurkmenistan already increased irrigated area by 420,000 ha, but wants to increase further by 450,000 ha

U b ki 634 400 h i bl f i i i ( llUzbekistan 634,400 ha suitable for new irrigation (not all in basin)

Tajikistan increased by 200,000 ha; wanted to increase further by 500,000 ha by 2005 (not all in basin),

Neither official nor unofficial data shows that Tajikistan and Turkmenistan increased water share

Afghanistan currently 385,000 ha, potential of total 443,000 or 1,580,000 ha, 6 km³ or 16,5 km³

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Discourses

Discourse: potential increase in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, if expansion is based on waterTurkmenistan, if expansion is based on water savings in other regions, then it is internal matter

U bekistan blame T rkmenistan is tho ght toUzbekistan blame: Turkmenistan is thought to use as much as 30 km³

BVO official data: Uzbekistan has decreased its consumption below allocated limits.

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DiscoursesBVO ffi i l d t U b ki t iBVO unofficial data: Uzbekistan was since independence above allocated limits.

Uzbekistan discourse: Is it fair that Uzbekistan and T rkmenistan ha e an eq al share beloand Turkmenistan have an equal share below Kerki? (14 million versus 4 million inhabitants)

WB: Afghanistan will not affect water allocation in the basin if so only in next 20 years (but whatin the basin, if so only in next 20 years (but what about charging for water? (Glantz 2002)

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Provision structures in the basin: pumps

Article VII, 1998 Agreement: requires the republic in which the facility lies to finance and conduct O&M of those f ilitifacilities

Tuyamuyun reservoir, Bukhara & Kashkardarya pump-Tuyamuyun reservoir, Bukhara & Kashkardarya pumpstations located in Turkmenistan. Uzbekistan pays rent & is responsible for O&M.

In 2000 Turkmenistan introduces stricter border controls. O&M work was affected.

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Provision structures in the basin: damN k d t l 40 % f fl f th A DNurek dam controls 40 % of flow of the Amu Darya

Tajikistan responsible for O&M of damTajikistan responsible for O&M of dam.

Barter hydropower & water in summer for gas and coal in y p gwinter from Uzbekistan

U b ki t it h ff li t l i &Uzbekistan switches off gas supplies, controls pipes & charges transit taxes (to switch to Turkmen gas not possible)possible)

Uzbekistan controls electric energy grid as well

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Electric Energy transmission grid G r e a t e r C e n t r a l A s ia I n t e r c o n n e c t e d 5 0 0 k V T r a n s m is s io n G r id

E k ib a s tu z s k a y a

N u raL e g e n dC o u n tr y B o r d e r5 0 0 k V L in eS b i

A g a d y r

Y u k G R E S

A lm a tyS h u

K A Z A K H S T A N

S u b s ta t io nP r o p o s e d F a c i l i t y

y

F r u n z e n s k a y a

A la b e l

Z h a m b y l

S h y m k e n t K Y R G Y Z R E P U B L I C

T o k t o g u l

L o c h inT a s h k e n t

T a s h k e n t T P S N o v o

A n g r e i

H o j e

K a ra k u l

S r y D a r y a

G u z a rN u r e kR e g a r

T A J I K I S T A N

U Z B E K I S T A N

M a r y

S u r k h a n

K a b u lP A K I S T A N

T U R K M E N I S T A N A F G H A N I S T A N

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Provision plans: dam / grid

Tajikistan plans to construct new dam. Would give 100% control over water flow of Vakhsh griver/ Tajikistan.

Tajikistan anticipates to cooperate with Kyrgyzstan to construct north-south transmission y gyline (challenge to Uzbekistan’s control over transmission-grid)g )

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Provision discoursesDiscourse on pumps: not open

WB declined project for rehabilitation of Kashkardarya pump station No agreement who should receive fundspump station. No agreement, who should receive funds.

Tajikistan: Aim to challenge discourse hegemony of U b ki t f ti i j tUzbekistan: sponsors conference, more active in projects

Uzbekistan’s fear: full control over water & maybe O&M U be sta s ea u co t o o e ate & aybe O&cost sharing

International financial organizations will not support planInternational financial organizations will not support plan because of Uzbekistan’s objections

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Expanding the theoretical framework

Discourses underpin hegemonic aspirationOfficial line SICICWC: conflicts have been avoided: Less dominant discourse in Uzbekistan: blame on TurkmenistanLess dominant discourse in Uzbekistan: blame on TurkmenistanBecause of Turkmenistan’s closure: the less dominant discourse produces a “truth”Interpretation: strategy of Uzbekistan to present itself as victim asInterpretation: strategy of Uzbekistan to present itself as victim as non-hegemonic

Power over control structuresPower over control structuresInfrastructure: only considered when it comes to the construction of new structures Subtlety of control: other issues highlighted: administrative andSubtlety of control: other issues highlighted: administrative and technical, but in the end politically utilized Utilization of dam, does not change allocation, but might change timing of deliverytiming of delivery

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ConclusionAfter Soviet hegemony no equilibrium foundAfter Soviet hegemony, no equilibrium found

Resource capture, without negotiationStates utilize their leverage over water control and energy infrastructure in their own interestinfrastructure in their own interestReal disintegration is costly economical and political

Strategy of resource captureStrategy of resource captureMain impact on ‘weakest riparian’ Aral Sea and downstream regionsImportance of strategy protect interest against the “new comer”Importance of strategy, protect interest against the new comer

BVO might not be neutralData suggests no control over data & power to get dataData suggests no control over data & power to get dataUzbekistan has a strong influence on the dataCan BVO regain trust, within the basin or internationally