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WELCOME!
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Page 1: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

WELCOME!

Page 2: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

Transforming the way the world

buys, sells, owns and uses cars

2

Page 3: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

AGENDA

3

The Industry & The Way Forward – Sandy Schwartz, President and CEO

The Economy – Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist

New Vehicle Sales – Charlie Chesbrough, Senior Economist

Used Vehicle Sales – Zo Rahim, Manager of Economic & Industry Insights

A Changing Landscape – Michelle Krebs, Executive Analyst

Outlook and Summer Playlist – Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist

Q&A

Page 4: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

MID-YEAR REVIEW 2020: The Way Forward

Sandy SchwartzPresident and CEO

4

Page 5: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

TURNING MASSIVE CHALLENGES INTO MEANINGFUL CHANGE

Page 6: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

ACCELERATE DIGITAL ADOPTION TO MEET CONSUMER DEMAND• CREATE THE TOUCHLESS CAR BUYING EXPERIENCE CONSUMERS WANT• NURTURE MEANINGFUL LONG-LASTING SERVICE RELATIONSHIPS• FREE UP TIME AND RESOURCES TO BETTER SERVE CUSTOMERS

REAL-TIME MARKET INSIGHTS TO FUEL YOUR BUSINESS• GAIN AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE MARKET TODAY SINCE THE PANDEMIC• ENABLE DECISION-MAKING FOR YOUR BUSINESS BASED ON INSIGHT• SHARPEN YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF YOUR CUSTOMERS BASED ON

CONSUMER SENTIMENTS GATHERED

BE HUMAN AT YOUR CORE• MAKE CONTINUED SAFETY THE TOP PRIORITY FOR YOUR EMPLOYEES

AND CUSTOMERS• NURTURE RELATIONSHIPS AND DEEPEN CUSTOMER TIES BY

GIVING BACK TO YOUR COMMUNITY• CHOOSE BUSINESS PARTNERS THAT SHARE YOUR VALUES,

COMMITMENT TO COMMUNITY AND VISION

Page 7: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

MID-YEAR REVIEW 2020: The Economy

Jonathan SmokeChief Economist

7

Page 8: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

Overall Economy GDP Growth / FRBNY

3.1%(Q2 ’19)

-5.0%(Q1 ’20)

-39%(Q2 ’20 F)

Employment Conditions

U3 UnemploymentRate

3.6%(May ’19)

13.3%(May ’20)

Buyer Confidence UofM Consumer Sentiment

100(May ’19)

72.3(May ’20)

Wages EarningsGrowth

3.3%(May ’19)

6.7%(May ’20)

Buyer Ability DisposableIncome Y/Y

4.7%(April ’19)

14.4%(April ’20)

OUR ECONOMY: To V or Not to V, That is the Question

8

Page 9: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

Auto Finance FRBNY $139.1 billion(Q1 ’19)

$150.3 billion(Q1 ’20)

Interest Rates Effective Fed Funds Rate

2.39%(May ’19)

0.05%(May ’20)

Borrowing Costs Average New AutoLoan Rate

6.30%(May ’19)

4.56%(May ’20)

Mobility CostsAverage Retail

UnleadedGasoline Price

$2.82(May ’19)

$1.98(May ’20)

OUR ECONOMY: To V or Not to V, That is the Question

9

Page 10: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

Dealer Sentiment IndexS E C O N D Q U A R T E R 2 0 2 0

Strong

Weak

How would you describe the current U.S. economy?

55 5557

23

55 5457

29

55 5557

21

Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020

Overall Franchise IndependentNote: Scale 1 - 100

Note: New question introduced in Q3 2019

Dealer Sentiment Index Q2 2020 10

Page 11: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

Dealer Sentiment IndexS E C O N D Q U A R T E R 2 0 2 0

Strong

Weak

4845 46

4951 51

44

48 49 48 4749

20

54 55 54 55 5659

51 50

5456

51

55

30

46

42 43

4750

48

42

47 4846 46 47

17

Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020

Overall Franchise Independent

How would you describe the current market for vehicles in the areas where you operate?

Note: Scale 1 - 100

Dealer Sentiment Index Q2 2020 11

Page 12: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

Dealer Sentiment IndexS E C O N D Q U A R T E R 2 0 2 0

Strong

Weak

What do you expect the market for vehicles in your area to look like 3 months from now?

55

5253

70

5657

49

63

55

51 51

63

45

64

57 57

73

69

61

54

62 62

57

54

66

57

5251

52

70

52

55

47

63

52

4951

61

40

Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020

Overall Franchise IndependentNote: Scale 1 - 100

Dealer Sentiment Index Q2 2020 12

Page 13: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

Dealer Sentiment IndexS E C O N D Q U A R T E R 2 0 2 0

Good

Poor

How would you describe the current new-vehicle sales environment?

57 57

61

65

59 6057

53 54 55 56 57

39

57 57

61

65

59 6057

53 54 55 56 57

39

Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020

Overall FranchiseNote: Scale 1 - 100

Dealer Sentiment Index Q2 2020 13

Page 14: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

Dealer Sentiment IndexS E C O N D Q U A R T E R 2 0 2 0

How would you describe the current used-vehicle sales environment?

5557

55 56 5557

5153

56 5553 53

26

7068 67

6972 72

6866

72 73

66

72

43

5053

51 5250

52

4648

5149 49

47

20

Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020

Overall Franchise IndependentNote: Scale 1 - 100

Good

Poor

Dealer Sentiment Index Q2 2020 14

Page 15: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

MID-YEAR REVIEW 2020: New Vehicle Sales

Charlie ChesbroughSenior Economist

15

Page 16: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

16Source: Cox Automotive/vAuto

Source: Cox Automotive analysis of IHS-Markit vehicle registrations data

COVID-19 MARKET IMPACT: New vs Used

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

2020

-01-

06

2020

-01-

13

2020

-01-

20

2020

-01-

27

2020

-02-

03

2020

-02-

10

2020

-02-

17

2020

-02-

24

2020

-03-

02

2020

-03-

09

2020

-03-

16

2020

-03-

23

2020

-03-

30

2020

-04-

06

2020

-04-

13

2020

-04-

20

2020

-04-

27

2020

-05-

04

2020

-05-

11

2020

-05-

18

2020

-05-

25

2020

-06-

01

2020

-06-

08

2020

-06-

15

YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales

YOY New YOY Used

Based on 30-day sales, market bottomed week of April 20; Used now showing YOY gains while New still contracting

Page 17: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

17Source: Cox Automotive June Forecast, BEA Vehicle Sales

Supply constraints may limit market gains this month, especially pickups

Source: Cox Automotive analysis of IHS-Markit vehicle registrations data

12.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jun-

2018

Aug-

2018

Oct

-201

8

Dec

-201

8

Feb-

2019

Apr-2

019

Jun-

2019

Aug-

2019

Oct

-201

9

Dec

-201

9

Feb-

2020

Apr-2

020

Jun-

2020

Total Car Light Truck

Monthly Light Vehicle Sales SAAR (millions)

FORECAST: June Improves, But Not Much

Page 18: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

18Source: Cox Automotive/IHS registrations as of May 1, 2020

Source: Cox Automotive analysis of IHS-Markit vehicle registrations data

-70.0%-60.0%-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%

0.0%10.0%

Jan Feb Mar Apr

Sales Change 2019 vs 2020

RetailFleetRetail Lease

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Retail2020 Fleet2020 Lease2020

Market Share by Channel

JanFebMarApr

Retail Fleet Retail LeaseJan 3.6% -3.2% 4.3%Feb -0.1% 0.5% -3.7%Mar -36.2% -40.3% -42.5%Apr -42.0% -69.1% -58.8%YTD -20.2% -28.2% -26.9%

Retail Fleet LeaseJan 77.6% 22.4% 30.2%Feb 74.7% 25.3% 30.9%Mar 77.9% 22.1% 28.4%Apr 87.2% 12.8% 21.1%YTD 78.5% 21.5% 28.2%

CHANGING CHANNELS: Retail Gains, Fleet DropsFleet likely to remain suppressed through the year, and 0% offers will be tough competition for retail leasing

Page 19: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

19Source: Cox Automotive/Kelley Blue Book

* Data is a combination of Cox Automotive estimates and actual data

Source: Cox Automotive analysis of IHS-Markit vehicle registrations data

OEM June 2019 June 2020 Change Q2 2019 Q2 2020 Change H1 2019 H1 2020 ChangeGM 253,000* 175,000 -31.0% 744,316 488,774 -34.3% 1,409,321 1,105,206 -21.6%Ford 218,000* 150,000 -31.4% 644,498 424,366 -34.2% 1,231,454 938,980 -23.8%Toyota 202,352 155,000 -23.4% 608,392 404,749 -33.5% 1,152,108 900,496 -21.8%FCA 206,000* 135,000 -34.5% 597,685 362,291 -39.4% 1,096,040 809,059 -26.2%Honda 135,901 110,000 -19.1% 407,208 288,728 -29.1% 776,995 587,513 -24.4%Hyundai Kia 122,507 105,000 -14.3% 359,413 276,265 -23.1% 648,111 549,040 -15.3%Nissan 123,504 70,000 -43.3% 351,185 181,352 -48.4% 717,036 438,958 -38.8%Subaru 61,512 50,000 -18.7% 182,772 132,608 -27.4% 339,526 263,199 -22.5%VW 56,339 40,000 -29.0% 167,294 109,831 -34.3% 316,305 238,267 -24.7%Mazda 22,828 20,000 -12.4% 67,722 55,873 -17.5% 138,555 123,543 -10.8%Daimler 29,275 18,000 -38.5% 85,039 50,236 -40.9% 163,917 119,006 -27.4%BMW 34,862 17,000 -51.2% 91,230 45,208 -50.4% 174,023 109,900 -36.8%Tesla 25,700 10,000 -61.1% 53,975 24,350 -54.9% 83,875 80,550 -4.0%Mitsubishi 12,317 4,000 -67.5% 29,030 10,902 -62.4% 71,100 46,465 -34.6%Tata 8,485 5,000 -41.1% 27,155 15,272 -43.8% 62,405 44,604 -28.5%Volvo 9,934 6,000 -39.6% 28,062 18,866 -32.8% 50,120 38,351 -23.5%NATION 1,523,786 1,070,000 -29.8% 4,444,976 2,889,671 -35.0% 8,430,891 6,393,137 -24.2%

FORECAST: A Tale of Product, Geography, Incentives & Supply

Page 20: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

20Source: Cox Automotive VMA Database

Nation -45%

Pennsylvania -72%New York -63%California -56%

Texas -31%

Arkansas -12%Oklahoma -17%S Dakota -19%

Hardest hit COVID-19 states also suffered huge market declines as shutdowns and concern varied across the country

VIRUS IMPACT: State-Level Sales Loss

Page 21: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

21• Source: Cox Automotive VMA Database

Pennsylvania -2.2%New York -2.1%California -2.0%

Florida +1.3

Texas +2.4%

Largest southern states gain significant market share, impacting Brand and Segment performance

VIRUS IMPACT: State-Level Market Share Changes

Page 22: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

22• Source: Cox Automotive VMA Database

Pennsylvania +2.1California +1.6%New York +1.3%

Florida -1.5%Texas -1.7%

Since May 1, hardest hit states gaining lost ground as pace of rebound rises

VIRUS IMPACT: Market Share Changing Again In Recovery Phase

Page 23: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

23Source: Kelley Blue Book Vehicle Sales

Less fleet activity and geographic closures affecting market – along with 0% financing

Source: Cox Automotive analysis of IHS-Markit vehicle registrations data

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

NissanRogue

FordEscape

HondaAccord

ChevroletEquinox

ToyotaCamry

HondaCivic

HondaCR-V

ToyotaCorolla

NATION JeepGrand

Cherokee

Ford F-Series

RamPickup

ToyotaTacoma

ToyotaRAV4

ChevroletSilverado

Sales Change (YTD2019 vs YTD2020)

LARGE VOLUME PRODUCTS: Pickups Outperforming

Page 24: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

24Source: Kelley Blue Book Vehicle Sales

Hyundai-Kia gaining from SUVs, GM from Trucks, while Nissan losing from collapse of Rental Fleet activity

Source: Cox Automotive analysis of IHS-Markit vehicle registrations data

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

Nissan FC

ABMW

Mitsub

ishi

Daimler Ta

ta

Honda

VWVolv

oFo

rd

Subaru

Tesla

Mazda

Toyo

ta GM

Hyund

ai Kia

Market Share Change (H1 2019 vs H1 2020)

MARKET SHARE: Many Changes, Many Causes

Page 25: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

25Source: vAuto /Cox Automotive VMA Database

2,000,000

2,200,000

2,400,000

2,600,000

2,800,000

3,000,000

3,200,000

3,400,000

3,600,000

2019

-06-

17

2019

-07-

15

2019

-08-

12

2019

-09-

09

2019

-10-

07

2019

-11-

04

2019

-12-

02

2019

-12-

30

2020

-01-

27

2020

-02-

24

2020

-03-

23

2020

-04-

20

2020

-05-

18

2020

-06-

15

Available Supply Last 12 Months

With plants starting to open, and sales pace improving, available supply dropping quickly

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2019

-06-

17

2019

-07-

15

2019

-08-

12

2019

-09-

09

2019

-10-

07

2019

-11-

04

2019

-12-

02

2019

-12-

30

2020

-01-

27

2020

-02-

24

2020

-03-

23

2020

-04-

20

2020

-05-

18

2020

-06-

15

Days’ Supply Last 12 Months

INDUSTY INVENTORY: The Next Recovery Hurdle

Page 26: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

26Source: Cox Automotive VMA Database

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Che

vrol

et

Ford

GM

C

Hon

da

Hyu

ndai

Jeep Kia

Maz

da

Nis

san

Ram

Sub

aru

Toyo

ta

Vol

ksw

agen

NA

TIO

N

Days’ Supply

Toyota, Subaru, GMC low on inventory, Nissan, Ford highest

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

Che

vrol

et

Ford

GM

C

Hon

da

Hyu

ndai

Jeep Kia

Maz

da

Nis

san

Ram

Sub

aru

Toyo

ta

Vol

ksw

agen

NA

TIO

N

Old Model Year Inventory Share

BRAND INVENTORY: Supply Varies Significantly

Page 27: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

27Source: Cox Automotive VMA Database

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Compact C

ar

Compact S

UV/Cros

sove

r

Full-size

Pick

up Truck

Full-size

SUV/C

rosso

ver

Hybrid

/Alternati

ve Energ

y Car

Mid-siz

e Car

Mid-siz

e Pick

up Truck

Mid-siz

e SUV/C

rosso

ver

Subco

mpact

SUV/Cross

over

NATION

Days’ Supply

Subcompact CUV and Hybrids lagging other products; Pickups have most old product but likely not a problem

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Compact C

ar

Compact S

UV/Cros

sove

r

Full-size

Pick

up Truck

Full-size

SUV/C

rosso

ver

Hybrid

/Alternati

ve Energ

y Car

Mid-siz

e Car

Mid-siz

e Pick

up Truck

Mid-siz

e SUV/C

rosso

ver

Subco

mpact

SUV/Cross

over

NATION

Old Model Year Inventory Share

SEGMENT INVENTORY: Trucks In Tight Supply

Page 28: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

28Source: Cox Automotive/Kelley Blue Book Data CY2019

Source: Cox Automotive analysis of IHS-Markit vehicle registrations data

Average Purchase APR%

ACURA

AUDI

BMW

BUICKCADILLAC

CHEVROLET

CHRYSLER

DODGE

FIAT

FORD

GENESIS

GMC

HONDA

HYUNDAI

INFINITI

JAGUAR

JEEP

KIA

LAND ROVER

LEXUS

LINCOLN

MAZDAMERCEDES-BENZMINI

MITSUBISHI

NISSAN

PORSCHE

RAM

SUBARU

TESLA

TOYOTAVOLKSWAGEN

VOLVO

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

$20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000

Average Transaction Price

In a recession, consumers seek value, lower prices; lenders seek better FICO, lower risk

Consumers seek value, lower prices

Lend

ers

seek

bet

ter

FIC

O, l

ower

risk

CONSUMERS UNDER PRESSURE: Brand Vulnerability

Page 29: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

29Source: Cox Automotive/Kelley Blue Book Data CY2019

Source: Cox Automotive analysis of IHS-Markit vehicle registrations data

Average Purchase APR%

Average Transaction Price

In a recession, consumers seek value, lower prices; lenders seek better FICO, lower risk

Consumers seek value, lower prices

Lend

ers

seek

bet

ter

FIC

O, l

ower

risk

CONSUMERS UNDER PRESSURE: Segment Vulnerability

Compact Car

Compact SUV

Electric VehicleEntry-level Luxury Car

Full-size Car

Full-Size Pick Up

Full-Size SUV High Performance Car

High-end Luxury CarHybrid/Alternative Energy CarLuxury Car

Luxury Compact SUV Luxury Full-Size SUVLuxury Mid-Size SUV

Luxury Subcompact SUV

Mid-size Car

Mid-Size PickupMid-Size SUV

Minivan

Sports Car

Subcompact Car

Subcompact SUV

Van

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

$15,000 $25,000 $35,000 $45,000 $55,000 $65,000 $75,000 $85,000 $95,000 $105,000 $115,000

Page 30: WELCOME! []...2020/06/25  · 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 YOY Change Weekly Retail Sales YOY New YOY Used Based on 30-day sales, market

30

33%

35%

37%

39%

41%

43%

45%

47%

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

New Vehicle Deliveries Used MY0-4 Registrations Used Share

Source: Cox Automotive/Kelley Blue Book, IHS registrations

New light vehicle + used MY0-4 uncovers full market potential – “self-competition” increasing

New and Used MY0-4 Vehicle Sales

Source: Cox Automotive analysis of IHS-Markit vehicle registrations data

Estimate

“Gently” Used Share

POTENTIAL MARKET: Value In Used Will Compete With New

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MID-YEAR REVIEW 2020: Used Vehicle Sales

Zo RahimManager, Economic & Industry Insights

31

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USED SALES: Recovery

32

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

January February March April May June July August September October November December

Total Used SAAR

2019 2020

Source: Cox Automotive

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MID-JUNE MANHEIM INDEX: Sees Strong Increase

33

125.8

146.1

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-13 Jan-16 Jan-19

January 1995 = 100

Source: Cox Automotive

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WHOLESALE PRICES: Are Now At Highest Point

34

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

104%

106%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51

MY 2017 Retail and Wholesale Price Indices (wk1=100)2019 Retail Index 2020 Retail Index 2019 Wholesale Index 2020 Wholesale Index

Source: Cox Automotive

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USED INVENTORY: Down

35

0.0 Days

20.0 Days

40.0 Days

60.0 Days

80.0 Days

100.0 Days

120.0 Days

140.0 Days

160.0 Days01

/08/

2001

/11/

2001

/14/

2001

/17/

2001

/20/

2001

/23/

2001

/26/

2001

/29/

2002

/01/

2002

/04/

2002

/07/

2002

/10/

2002

/13/

2002

/16/

2002

/19/

2002

/22/

2002

/25/

2002

/28/

2003

/02/

2003

/05/

2003

/08/

2003

/11/

2003

/14/

2003

/17/

2003

/20/

2003

/23/

2003

/26/

2003

/29/

2004

/01/

2004

/04/

2004

/07/

2004

/10/

2004

/13/

2004

/16/

2004

/19/

2004

/22/

2004

/25/

2004

/28/

2005

/01/

2005

/04/

2005

/07/

2005

/10/

2005

/13/

2005

/16/

2005

/19/

2005

/22/

2005

/25/

2005

/28/

2005

/31/

2006

/03/

2006

/06/

2006

/09/

2006

/12/

2006

/15/

2006

/18/

2006

/21/

20

Inve

ntor

y Da

ys' S

uppl

yDays Supply Wholesale Inventory and Retail Inventory

Rolling 7 Day Supply Retail Rolling 7 day Supply Wholesale

Source: Cox Automotive

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CPO SALES: Rebound

36

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20

Units

Source: Cox Automotive Analysis of Motor Intelligence

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MID-YEAR REVIEW 2020: A Changing Landscape

Michelle KrebsExecutive Analyst

37

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Source: 2020 Cox Automotive COVID-19 Consumer Impact Study 38

Delaying Vehicle Purchase/Lease*

↑↑

7%17%

28%35% 34% 33% 34% 34% 31% 27%

37% 36%

Mar5-6

Mar13-14

Mar20-22

Mar27-28

Apr3-4

Apr10-11

Apr17-18

Apr24-25

May1-3

May15-16

May29-30

June12-13

Anticipated Delay in Vehicle Purchase**

(among those planning to delay purchase)

32%14% 18% 10% 8%

17% 24%11% 5% 10%

5%

11% 10%4% 5%

13% 2%

4% 10% 7%

32%43% 40%

36% 41%

39%37%

29% 36%43%

30% 31% 33%49% 46%

32% 37%56% 49%

41%

Mar20-22

Mar27-28

Apr3-4

Apr10-11

Apr17-18

Apr24-25

May1-3

May15-16

May29-30

June12-13

Not sure 6+ months 3-6 months Up to 2 months

*Among 6-month auto intenders

Q10. Have you done, or do you think you will do any of the following because of the coronavirus? *Note: Added “have done” in Wave 4 Q17a1. How do you anticipate the coronavirus will change the timing of when you purchase or lease a vehicle, if at all?

**Among 6-month auto intenders who will delay purchasing/leasing a vehicle

Factors At Work• General uncertainty in the market• Civil unrest• Continued unemployment concerns• Potential for a 2nd wave

A CHAOTIC ENVIRONMENT: An Uptick in Purchase Delays

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Source: 2020 Cox Automotive COVID-19 Consumer Impact Study39

Delaying Vehicle Service/Repair*(% consumers that said “Yes”)

↑↑

5%13%

29%37% 40% 37% 32% 32% 32% 28% 25% 25%

Mar5-6

Mar13-14

Mar20-22

Mar27-28

Apr3-4

Apr10-11

Apr17-18

Apr24-25

May1-3

May15-16

May29-30

June12-13

↑ ↑

Q10. Have you done, or do you think you will do any of the following because of the coronavirus? *Note: Added “have done” in Wave 4Q18b. What type(s) of vehicle service/maintenance have you delayed or plan to delay?

*Among vehicle owners**Among those who would delay vehicle service

95% are delaying vehicle maintenance

52% are delaying vehicle repair

Types of Vehicle Service/Repair Being Delayed**

A CHAOTIC ENVIRONMENT: Flattened the Decline in Service Delays

Source: 2020 Cox Automotive COVID-19 Consumer Impact Study

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40

Q24. How, if at all, is your dealership currently selling vehicles?Q14. Does your dealership currently have a digital retailing solution in place?

% of dealers are going beyond just conducting business in their

physical location

% of dealers with Digital Retailing solutions in place*

77% / 45%

64%

79%74%

80%75%

81%77%

45%

52% 50% 50% 47% 44% 45%

4/10 4/17 4/24 5/1 5/15 5/29 6/12

81% / 78%

Franchise / Independent87%84%

89% 90%

82%

88%

81%

75% 75%78%

86%84% 82%

78%

4/10 4/17 4/24 5/1 5/15 5/29 6/12

Source: 2020 Cox Automotive COVID-19 Consumer Impact Study

(Franchise) (Independent) (Franchise) (Independent)

A CHAOTIC ENVIRONMENT: A Peak in Digital Retailing Activity

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Source: 2020 Cox Automotive COVID-19 Consumer Impact Study 41

Q11c. Overall, how did your recent vehicle purchase experience compare to the last time you purchased a vehicle? Q11d. Why was your recent vehicle purchase experience better than the last time you purchased a vehicle?

58% 35% 6%

Much/somewhat better

About the same

Somewhat worse

How was it better: Consumer Voice

- “It was way faster and easy.”

- “Because of the coronavirus I believe the whole process was faster and the dealership was certainly less crowded.”

How this experience compared to past experiences?

A CHAOTIC ENVIRONMENT: Changes the Buying Experience

63%

56% 56% 55%53%

Top reason dealers plan to continue with Digital Retailing

Makes my dealership

more efficient

Great Customer

Experience

Optimizes BusinessProcess

Long-term Strategy

Customers Will Want

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DIGITAL RETAIL KEY INDICATORS: Year-Over-Year Growth

190% 207% 186%

662%

Product Page Views Started Deals Pencil Deals Submitted Deals

Increase in Volume

Source: Internal Consumer Use Data, Cox Automotive Product Analytics

May 2019 vs May 2020

42

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MID-YEAR REVIEW 2020: Outlook and Summer Playlist

Jonathan SmokeResident DJ

43

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MANHEIM USED VEHICLE VALUE

INDEX

+2.3%

NEW LEASE VOLUME

3.4M

1.3M

2.0MCPO SALES

FLEET SALES24%LEASE

PENETRATION

LEASE MATURITIES4.1M

2020FORECASTS

12.9MNEW SALES

34.1MUSED SALES

18.0MUSED RETAIL SALES

44

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LOOKING AHEAD: Our Summer Playlist

Sunday Best by Surfaces

A Salute To Dealer Optimism, Innovation

And Resiliency

Break My Heart by Dua Lipa

Risk Of New Outbreaks In Many States

Cruel Summer by Taylor Swift

A Rocky Road Ahead with Everything from

Unemployment to Election Politics

Be a Light by Thomas Rhett et al

Because It’s The Right Thing To Do

45

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Q&A

46

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Thank You!

47

Contact Information:

Dara HailesManager, Public RelationsCox [email protected]

Mark SchirmerDirector, Public RelationsCox [email protected]

For additional content from Cox Automotive, visit the Newsroom at http://www.coxautoinc.com/newsroom and sign up for From the Newsroom, our biweekly newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gHs8OH


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