Welcome

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Defining Reality

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A Century of Change…

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2011

Christian 2011

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2001

Christian 2001

Lost since 2001

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1920

Christian 1920s

CofE?

Lost CofE?

1920s

2011

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1920s

2011

attendees

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Growth and decline indicators of association with the Church of

England, 1905 to 2009

1905 1911 1917 1923 1929 1935 1941 1947 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 20070

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

Electoral Roll

Easter Commu-nicants

Usual Sunday At-tendance

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Over 60 non Christians

Christian 2011

Over 60 Christians

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No religion

Other religions

Not stated

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No religion

Other religions

Not stated

Attend other Denominations?

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No religion

Other religions

Not stated

Attend other Denominations?

Attend Cof E

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The Squeeze on Resources

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Stipendiary clergy actuals and projections 2002 to 2022

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20226000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

25% more or-dinands

1 year later re-tirement

Usual projection

1 year earlier re-tirement

25% fewer or-dinands

Actuals Projections

FTE

stipe

ndia

ry c

lerg

y

Year

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SLOW ON-GOING DECLINE

• The average decline in Church attendance has been 1.3% per annum for the past 30 years.

• The average parish in the Church of England has 79 people attending.

• This means that the average parish has been declining by around one person per year.

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20 years ago Today

1.3% decline per year

One person, per church, per year may not seem like much…

But, over 20 years this means we’ve lost a quarter of our attendees:

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A Methodist Story

• This is what was predicted…

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1966-7 1976-77(est)

1986-7 1996-7 2006-7

A Methodist Story

• This is what has happened since…

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1966-7 1976-77

(est)

1986-7 1996-7 2006-7

A Methodist Story

• In making the projection, Butler & Jones did not assume anything would go radically ‘wrong’ among the Methodist’s Church’s membership

• They simply took the view membership would decline through:– Deaths in an increasingly elderly

membership, and– A failure to recruit from outside existing

members and their immediate families

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2007 Age Profile Survey

2%5%

12%

19%17%

47%

21%

13%11%

20%

17% 15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 and over

2007 CofE

ONS 2007 Mid-Year

C of E Age Profile Trend

1979 1984(estimate)

1989 1994(estimate)

1998 20050

10

20

30

40

50

60Average Age (All Age Groups)

Church Census England

10.5 yrs

Church of England Projection

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

2051

2053

2055

2057N

umbe

r of

Wor

ship

pers

Age

d 18

and

ove

r (0

00)

Continuation of recent trends

Church of England Projection

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

2051

2053

2055

2057N

umbe

r of

Wor

ship

pers

Age

d 18

and

ove

r (0

00) Continuation of recent trends

No losses other than through death

Church of England Projection

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

2051

2053

2055

2057N

umbe

r of

Wor

ship

pers

Age

d 18

and

ove

r (0

00) Continuation of recent trends

No losses other than through death

Growth

Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions

10 Year AWA change: 2001 – 2011 (Smoothed)

LondonBlackburn Average (mean)

-21.7% 7.3%-7.2%

5 Year AWA change: 2007 – 2011 (Smoothed)

SheffieldBlackburn Average (mean)

-15.6% 5.7%-3.8%

AWA per Capita: 2011

HerefordBirmingham Average (mean)

1.15 3.962.17%

Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions

10 Year Comparisons (2001– 11 smoothed)

% National Change

Population 7.9%

AWA -7.2%

Fresh Expressions

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In the 6 dioceses surveyed to date:

• Who’s coming?: 23% Christian, 35% de-churched and 42% are non-churched.

• The investment ratio: for every 1 person sent, another 2.5 are now present.

• Small starting team: 75% of cases 3 to 12

• Growth: At least 1/3rd quickly grow to a size (37 -50) and then plateau

• Over half lay led (and 41% of leaders are laity with no formal designation or training).

Fresh Expressions

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• FX attendance accounts for 4.4% to 14.4% of diocesan attendance (average 9.5%) in dioceses surveyed.

• Increase in attendance brought about by FX is greater than the prior AWA decline in each of these 6 dioceses (2006-10).

Quinquennial Goals

• To take forward the spiritual and numerical growth of the Church of England.

• To re-structure the Church’s ministry for the century coming, so as to make sure that there is a growing and sustainable Christian witness in every local community.

• To contribute as the national Church to the common good.

A Strategic Response

• Confidence in the Gospel• Facing up to reality• Sharing learning about mission and

growth• More intentional use of resources• Less jam spreading• Investing where need/opportunity