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Welcome Back Technical Co-Chairs Maurice Moses Ernst & Young LLP Dr. Lars Westpfahl Freshfields...

Date post:18-Dec-2015
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  • Slide 1
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  • Welcome Back Technical Co-Chairs Maurice Moses Ernst & Young LLP Dr. Lars Westpfahl Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer LLP
  • Slide 3
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  • General Sponsors AlixPartners LLP Asset Reconstruction Company (India) Ltd BTG Mesirow Financial Consulting Deloitte LLP Derra, Meyer & Partner Financial Times Greenberg Traurig LLP hww wienberg wilhelm PricewaterhouseCoopers
  • Slide 5
  • Group of Thirty-Six AlixPartners LLP Allen & Overy LLP Alvarez & Marsal LLC Baker Tilly Begbies Global Network Bingham McCutchen LLP Cadwalader Wickersham & Taft LLP Chadbourne & Parke LLP Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP Davis Polk & Wardwell De Brauw Blackstone Westbroek Deloitte LLP Ernst & Young Ferrier Hodgson Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer Goodmans LLP Grant Thornton Greenberg Traurig LLP Huron Consulting Group LLC Jones Day Kaye Scholer LLP Kirkland & Ellis LLP KPMG LLP Linklaters LLP Lovells LLP Norton Rose LLP Pepper Hamilton LLP PPB PricewaterhouseCoopers RSM Corporate Advisory Services Shearman & Sterling LLP Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP Vantis Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP White & Case LLP Zolfo Cooper LLP
  • Slide 6
  • Plenary Sessions Cross-border co-operation: Current trends Storms of the recent past and managing future challenges Joharah Ballroom
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  • Breakouts 10.00 11.15am A1 Over regulated or laissez-faire?: Role of the regulators Joharah Ballroom B1 Operational restructuring in the MENA region Joharah Ballroom 56 C1 Effect of the credit crunch on personal insolvency Joharah Ballroom 7
  • Slide 8
  • Breakouts 11.45 1.00pm A2 Valuation of distressed entities, assessing where value breaks and the role of DIP funding: A case study Joharah Ballroom B2 Corporate failure Poor governance or flawed business plans? Joharah Ballroom 56 C2 Practice management in a recession How have we coped? Joharah Ballroom 7
  • Slide 9
  • Breakouts 2.15 3.30pm A3 Real estate in distress: Bankruptcy and restructuring cases Joharah Ballroom B3 Ponzi schemes: A recent discovery? Joharah Ballroom 56 C3 Surgeon or undertaker? Dealing with turnaround and burial issues in a credit crunch Joharah Ballroom 7
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  • Cross-border co-operation: Current trends
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  • Chair: Honorable Arthur J. Gonzalez, Chief Judge of the United States Bankruptcy Court, Southern District of New York The Hon. Mr. Justice Sanjay Kaul, Delhi High Court Stephen Baister, Chief Bankruptcy Registrar, High Court of Justice Senior Deputy Judge Jeanette Melchior, Maritime and Commercial Court, Copenhagen, Bankruptcy Division
  • Slide 13
  • Breakouts 10.00 11.15am A1 Over regulated or laissez-faire?: Role of the regulators Joharah Ballroom B1 Operational restructuring in the MENA region Joharah Ballroom 56 C1 Effect of the credit crunch on personal insolvency Joharah Ballroom 7
  • Slide 14
  • Over regulated or laissez-faire?: Role of the regulators Chair: Carlos Mack, White & Case LLP Johnson Kong, BDO Limited Luis Manuel C. Mjan Carrer, Immediate Past Chairman of the International Association of Insolvency Regulators Kathrine Meloni, Slaughter and May
  • Slide 15
  • Over regulated or laissez faire: How much regulation do the financial markets need? Dr. Carlos Mack, White & Case
  • Slide 16
  • If you want good security, hire a thief (Financial recruiter, explaining why disgraced bankers are being offered new jobs, in The Power of Yes) This presentation is mainly based on the play The Power of Yes by David Hare, currently showing at the National Theatre, London, as well as on extensive reading of academic, press, legal, accountancy, economic, ethical, etc publications.
  • Slide 17
  • The moral of the story Alan Greenspan before the crisis: Markets are imperfect but they bring such benefits that you just have to live with the fact that from time to time they collapse, so you just pick up the bits. The benefits of the market are so great that you have to live with the price. Yes, but Alan, the people who end up paying the price are never the people who get the benefits. (By the way, in the meantime even Alan Greenspan has revised his view: What I said in June (before the crisis) no longer applies. and: The whole intellectual edifice (e g markets are decent and wise) has collapsed.)
  • Slide 18
  • Do you recall the good old times of plain vanilla capitalism Capitalism without Bankruptcy is like Christianity without Hell How many banks and/or insurance companies have you seen going bust?
  • Slide 19
  • The Financial Alchimist Formula: Black- Scholes Model Myron Scholes (Nobel Prize in Economics, run LTCM (Long Term Capital Management) and fellow academic Fisher Black algebraic formula to calculate risk by calculating the right price of a future option LTCM posted profits of more than 40 percent; ration of borrowing to capital (leverage) at 50 to 1 Believed to have eliminated risk by a mathematical model: Risk free gambling The B-S Model is still used to this day as the internationally recognised formula to calculated risk Caveat emptor: When you model risk, you only model your own risk. You dont model for the whole system. Thats the problem with mathematical modelling.
  • Slide 20
  • The Financial Crisis in a nutshell: SLUMP SLUMP Sub-Prime
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  • Never occurred to banks that the housing market would stop growing or even collapse Uncontrolled lending of money to ninjas (no income, no job, no assets) Over 1,000,000 mortgage dealers in US Cutting and Repacking
  • Slide 22
  • The Financial Crisis in a nutshell: SLUMP SLUMP Sub-Prime Liquidity
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  • Liquidity circulation stopped on August 9th 2007 Banks didnt have a clue what sort of exotic-toxic stuff they had in their books All banks looking at each other and guessing who is holding the bad stuff System freezes: No one can/will borrow, no one can/will lend. Queens Question at LSE: Why did nobody see it coming? E g in the UK the FSA thought Bank of England was responsible, Bank of England thought it is for the FSA to look into the matter
  • Slide 24
  • The Financial Crisis in a nutshell: SLUMP SLUMP Sub-Prime Liquidity Unravelling
  • Slide 25
  • Within Wall Street Lehman Brothers (not Sisters) was one of the big players pooling bad (sub-prime) assets, packaging them in mysterious structures and selling them across the planet. Investors (banks and private) around the world were full of this sub-prime crap. Once the investment began to fall it did not by a few per cent; quite on the contrary by 50 per cent, 70 per cent and more. Lehman should/could have been quietly managed out of business. However, the Fed drew the wrong line: the largest corporate failure in history was like a supernova exploding, leading to meltdown
  • Slide 26
  • The Financial Crisis in a nutshell: SLUMP SLUMP Sub-Prime Liquidity Unravelling Meltdown
  • Slide 27
  • Too big to fail! Wall Street got its own new kind of socialism: Socialism for the rich. Privatize earnings and socialize losses. Here is where the sense of injustice begins to kick in! Whats the purpose of Government? Everyone will agree on the common formula: To provide the public good. Defence, education, health and a well functioning financial system. The governments job is not only to regulate. Its job is to provide a sound, reliable, decent financial system. Reality? Banking system has been off God knows where, doing God knows what! Size of damage? 6 trillion USD: 6,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
  • Slide 28
  • The Financial Crisis in a nutshell: SLUMP SLUMP Sub-Prime Liquidity Unravelling Meltdown Pumping
  • Slide 29
  • Helicopter money distribution started: Governments around the world throwing money out onto corpses: Fannies & Freddies and AIG and Northern Rock and Hypo Real Estate, and Fortis and Kaupthing, and Landsbanki and not to forget HBOS and the Royal Bank of Scotland Pumping tax payers money to pay out bonuses to bankers of de facto bankrupt banks and no end in sight
  • Slide 30
  • Who is to blame? Pick your own choice Ninjas excessive borrowing The Originate-to-Distribute Model The Black-Scholes Risk Model International Accounting Standards Fred Goodwin and Dick Fuld, i e Bankers (managers and supervisory board members) greed, lack of responsability and no fear/prudence Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown Hack Paulson (US Treasury Secretary and Banker) Alan Greenspan, Mervyn King and Jean-Claude Trichet Rating agencies (AAA) Investors (private & institutional) Accountants Lawyers OR JUST ANOTHER NORMAL BUSINESS CYCLE OF GROWTH & DECLINE?
  • Slide 31
  • Whats the remedy? Regulation, stronger Governance rules Liberal Anglo-American approach (still) believing in the self-regulating market forces against the Continental-European socio-capitalism with its firm conviction that capitalism needs regulation What sort of Regulation: Light Touch Regulation? (either you regulate or you dont) Watchdogs or bloodhounds?
  • Slide 32
  • Whats the remedy? Regulation, stronger Governance rules Stronger Governance rules Specific rules
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