Welcome To The 40th HPC User Forum

MeetingBeijing, China October 2010

Welcome To The 40th HPC User Forum

MeetingBeijing, China October 2010

Agenda: WelcomeAgenda: Welcome

• Welcome by our host: The Beijing Computing Center

• IDC welcome and HPC User Forum background: Vernon Turner, Earl Joseph and Steve Conway

• IDC HPC Market Overview: Jie Wu and Earl Joseph

Introduction: LogisticsIntroduction: Logistics

We have a very tight agenda (as usual) Please help us keep on time!

Review handouts Note: We will post most of the presentations on

the web site

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HPC User Forum GoalsHPC User Forum Goals

• Assist HPC users in solving their ongoing computing, technical and business problems

• Provide a forum for exchanging information, identifying areas of common interest, and developing unified positions on requirements

By working with users in other sectors and vendors To help direct and push vendors to build better products Which should also help vendors become more successful

• Provide members with a continual supply of information on:

Uses of high end computers, new technologies, high end best practices, market dynamics, computer systems and tools, benchmark results, vendor activities and strategies

• Provide members with a channel to present their achievements and requirements to interested parties

HPC User Forum MissionHPC User Forum Mission

To Improve The Health Of The

High-performance Computing Industry

Through Open Discussions, Information-sharing And Initiatives Involving

HPC Users In Industry, Government And Academia

Along With HPC Vendors

And Other Interested Parties

Steering Committee MembersSteering Committee Members

• Steve Finn, BAE Systems, Chairman• Sharan Kalwani , KAUST, Vice Chairman • Earl Joseph, IDC, Executive Director• Vijay Agarwala, Penn State University• Alex Akkerman, Ford Motor Company • Doug Ball, The Boeing Company• Rupak Biswas NASA/Ames• Paul Buerger, Avetec• Steve Conway, IDC Research Vice President• Jack Collins, National Cancer Institute• Jeff Broughton. NERSC/Lawrence Berkeley National Lab • Merle Giles, NSCA/University of Illinois• Chris Catherasoo, NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory• James Kasdorf, Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center• Doug Kothe, Oak Ridge National Laboratory• Paul Muzio, City University of New York• Michael Resch , HLRS, University of Stuttgart• Marie-Christine Sawley, ETH Zurich - CERN Group• Vince Scarafino, Industry Expert • Robert Singleterry, NASA/Langley

IDC HPC

Market Update

IDC HPC

Market Update

Top Trends in HPCTop Trends in HPC

The global economy in HPC appears to have leveled off The first half of 2010 grew by 2% We are forecasting 3% to 5% growth in 2010 The high end of the market grew by 65% in 2009!

Major challenges for datacenters: Power, cooling, real estate, system management Storage and data management continue to grow in importance

Software hurdles will rise to the top for most users Driven heavily by multi-core processors and hybrid systems Application scaling and performance is a problem

SSDs will gain momentum and could redefine storageGPUs are seeing real tractions in certain verticals The worldwide Race on Petascale is in full speed

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HPC Server Market Size By Competitive Segments (first half of 2010)HPC Server Market Size By Competitive Segments (first half of 2010)

Departmental ($250K - $100K)

$1,474M

Divisional ($250K - $500K)

$572M

Supercomputers(Over $500K)

$1,386M

Workgroup(under $100K)

$699M

HPC Servers $4,131M

HPC Market Results: Revenues and System UnitsHPC Market Results: Revenues and System Units

Segment Q110 Q210 Sequential Revenue ($K) Revenue ($K) Growth

Supercomputer 669,521 716,725 7.1%Divisional 273,753 298,033 8.9%Departmental 688,785 784,900 14.0%Workgroup 372,914 326,041 -12.6%

Grand Total 2,004,973 2,125,700 6.0%

Segment Q110 Q210 Sequential Shipments Shipments Growth

Supercomputer 527 703 33.4%Divisional 865 945 9.2%Departmental 4,094 4,762 16.3%Workgroup 20,987 21,592 2.9%

Grand Total 26,473 28,002 5.8%

HPC Vendor Revenue Shares, Q210HPC Vendor Revenue Shares, Q210

Revenue Share by Vendor Supercomputer Segment, Q210Revenue Share by Vendor Supercomputer Segment, Q210

HPC Server Processor/Sockets Metrics, First Half of 2010HPC Server Processor/Sockets Metrics, First Half of 2010

CPU Type System ASP($K)Ave.

CPUs/System $(K)/CPU CPUs /$M

x86-64 69.1 25 2.7 364

EPIC 219.5 25 8.8 114

RISC 120.3 15 7.9 126

Vector 647.9 12 54.0 19

Total HPC Revenue Share by Processor TypeTotal HPC Revenue Share by Processor Type

Source IDC, 2010

Total HPC Revenue by OS Total HPC Revenue by OS

Source IDC, 20100%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Linux rev.

Unix Rev.

W/NT Rev.

HPC

reve

nue

shar

e by

O

/S

Industry/Application Segments Industry/Application Segments

2008 2009Bio-Sciences $1,412 $1,120CAE $1,131 $874Chemical Engineering $238 $179DCC & Distribution $572 $460Economics/Financial $281 $198EDA / IT / ISV $751 $540Geosciences and Geo-engineering $570 $539Mechanical Design and Drafting $112 $73Defense $920 $849Government Lab $1,460 $1,349University/Academic $1,852 $1,641Weather $392 $353Other $80 $78Total Revenue $9,772 $8,252Source: IDC 2010

Worldwide HPC Revenues ($M)

HPC Server Revenue($K) Forecast 2008 - 2014HPC Server Revenue($K) Forecast 2008 - 2014

WW HPC Server Forecast, 2009 - 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014CAGR

(09-14)

Supercomputer 3,369,410 3,624,352 3,879,294 4,134,237 4,389,179 4,617,522 6.5%

Divisional 1,070,764 1,129,694 1,188,625 1,247,555 1,306,485 1,366,596 5.0%

Departmental 2,516,253 2,698,090 2,879,928 3,061,765 3,243,602 3,479,978 6.7%

Workgroup 1,680,687 1,787,410 1,894,133 2,000,856 2,107,579 2,242,167 5.9%

Total 8,637,114 9,239,547 9,841,980 10,444,413 11,046,846 11,706,263 6.3%

Source: IDC, 2010

Growth In The Broader HPC MarketGrowth In The Broader HPC Market

Worldwide HPC Revenue for Server, Storage, Service and Software Revenue ($K) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013CAGR

(09 - 13)

Compute $9,771,849 $8,637,114 $9,239,547 $9,841,980 $10,444,413 $11,046,846 6.3%

Storage $3,371,288 $3,022,990 $3,280,039 $3,641,533 $3,968,877 $4,308,270 9.3%

Service $1,856,651 $1,554,681 $1,686,217 $1,820,766 $1,958,327 $2,154,135 8.5%

Application Software $3,322,429 $2,971,167 $3,215,362 $3,444,693 $3,759,989 $4,065,239 8.2%

Middleware $1,172,622 $1,062,365 $1,154,943 $1,259,773 $1,357,774 $1,458,184 8.2%

Total $19,494,839 $17,248,317 $18,576,110 $20,008,745 $21,489,379 $23,032,673 7.5%

Source: IDC, 2010

HPC Server Revenue ($K) In APeJ and China, 2007 - 2010 HPC Server Revenue ($K) In APeJ and China, 2007 - 2010

HPC Server Revenue($K) in APeJ and China, 2007 - 2010(est)

Revenue 2007 2008 2009 2010(est) CAGR

Total WW HPC 10,076,423 9,771,849 8,637,114 9,215,801 -2.9%

APeJ Rev 1,230,567 1,145,659 915,594 1,198,054 -0.9%

China Rev 290,285 281,043 274,678 431,299 14.1%

Percentage tablePercentages 2007 2008 2009 2010(est)

APeJ/Worldwide 12.2% 11.7% 10.6% 13.0%China/Worldwide 2.9% 2.9% 3.2% 4.7%China/APeJ 23.6% 24.5% 30.0% 36.0%Source: IDC, 2010

ConclusionsConclusions

2010 is a year of evolutionary rather than revolutionary change in the worldwide HPC market

Incremental advances will help, but not resolve persistent issues, such as highly parallel programming challenges, power and cooling costs, and software licensing costs

IDC predicts the HPC market will resume growth in 2010 and grow by 3% to 5% in 2010

And then will rebuild to exceed $11 billion by 2014 The recovery will benefit HPC segments unevenly:

With hard-hit verticals such as automotive recovering more slowly than oil and gas, or government and academia

The Supercomputer segment growth will remain turbo-charged by government spending aimed at HPC leadership and “petaflop club” membership

2011 IDC HPC Research Areas 2011 IDC HPC Research Areas

• Quarterly HPC Forecast Updates – Until the world economy fully recovers

• HPC End-user Based Reports:– Clusters, processors, accelerators, storage,

interconnects, system software, and applications – The evolution of government HPC budgets – Emerging markets including China, Russia, etc.– SMB and SMS research and award program – Clouds in HPC

• Power and Cooling Research• Developing a Market Model For Middleware and

Management Software • Scaling of software – issues and solutions• Worldwide Petascale and Exascale Initiatives

Please email:hpc@idc.com

Or check out:www.hpcuserforum.com

Questions?Questions?

Agenda: Morning Sessions Agenda: Morning Sessions

9:00am HPC User Site Updates• China Top 100 and the new ranking, Dr. Yunquan Zhang, Chinese

Academy of Science, Chair of China Top 100 (20 minutes)• HPC computing at BCC, Dr. Yu Zeng, Vice Chair, Beijing Computing

Center (20 minutes)• Boeing HPC site update: Key research areas, HPC computers used and

what they would like to see improved in HPC (20 minutes)• Vendor technical updates: Microsoft , Intel (15 minutes)10:30am 30 minute break11:00am HPC User Site Updates• HPC in Chemical Processing, Dr. Chen Ding, University of Rochester,

Development of Large Scale Parallel Algorithms (20 minutes)• NASA HPC site update: Key research areas, HPC computers used and

what they would like to see improved in HPC (20 minutes)• HPC in Oil exploration, challenges and opportunities, Mr. Nenghe Lai,

Chief Engineer, China Petroleum (20 minutes)• New Ideas for Exascale File Systems, Peter Braam (15 minutes)12:30pm Lunch Break

Please ReturnPromptly At 2:00pm

Please ReturnPromptly At 2:00pm

Agenda: Afternoon Sessions Agenda: Afternoon Sessions

2:00pm HPC In Industry • NCSA Approaches to Industrial Outreach (20 minutes)• OSC Approaches to Industrial Outreach (20 minutes)• New Developments at Inspur (15 minutes)3:00pm NCI HPC site update: Key research areas, HPC computers used and

what they would like to see improved in HPC (20 minutes)3:20pm HPC Cloud Panel Discussions• Panel on Grid and Cloud computing: Hunan Supercomputing Center,

Tianjing Supercomputer Center, KAUST, NASA, Penn State, NSF, CUNY and Microsoft (1 hour)

4:15pm 15 minute break4:30pm High End Directions Panel• Panel on petascale/exascale directions and the use of hybrid

systems/alternative processors: Institute of Science, ICT, Jiangnan Institute of Computing Technology, NSF, HLRS, NCSA, NCI, CUNY (1 hour)

5:15pm Meeting wrap-up and the need for worldwide cooperation to advance HPC

Panel #1

Clouds In HPC

Panel #1

Clouds In HPC

Clouds In HPC Panel MembersClouds In HPC Panel Members

• Sharan Kalwani, King Abdullah University of Science & Technology (KAUST)

• Xuebing Chi, Chinese Academy of Science• Nenghe Lai, BGP • Robert Singleterry, NASA Langley• Irene Qualters, National Science Foundation• Paul Muzio, CUNY• Vijay Agarwala, Pennsylvania State University• Microsoft

Cloud Panel Q1Cloud Panel Q1

What do you see as the future of cloud computing in HPC?

Cloud Panel Q2Cloud Panel Q2

Is your organization using (or considering using) clouds today for any HPC workloads?

Cloud Panel Q3Cloud Panel Q3

What are the main opportunities for HPC cloud computing?

• What are the main challenges?

Cloud Panel Q4Cloud Panel Q4

Could clouds ever handle, say 15% to 25% of your current HPC workload?

If not, why not?

Cloud Panel Q5Cloud Panel Q5

If the price was low enough, is there a fit in your organization for clouds?

If not, why not?

Panel #2

High End HPC Directions

Panel #2

High End HPC Directions

High End HPC Panel MembersHigh End HPC Panel Members

• Irene Qualters, National Science Foundation• Michael Resch, HLRS/University of Stuttgart• Merle Giles, National Center for Supercomputing

Applications• Ninghui Sun, ICT• Yunquan Zhang, CAS• Fengbin Qi, Jiangnan Computing Center• Jack Collins, National Cancer Institute• Paul Muzio, City University of New York

High End HPC Panel Q1High End HPC Panel Q1

What needs to happen for multi-petascale and exascale systems to become useful?

High End HPC Panel Q2High End HPC Panel Q2

Will early exascale systems inevitably be very narrow-purpose, able to run only a few applications across a large fraction of the machine?

High End HPC Panel Q3High End HPC Panel Q3

What would be a good way to get more applications running at the petascale/ exascale level?

High End HPC Panel Q4High End HPC Panel Q4

How important will GPUs and other alternative processors be for the future of HPC, especially at the high end?

• Do you plan to use them for your applications?

• If not, why not?

High End HPC Panel Q5High End HPC Panel Q5

What proportion of available funding should be invested in exascale software development, as opposed to hardware R&D?

Important Dates For Your Calendar Important Dates For Your Calendar

FUTURE HPC USER FORUM MEETINGS:

2011 US Meetings: April 5 to 7, Houston, Texas September 6 to 8, San Diego, California

International Meetings (Dates will be set soon):• CEA, France• Imperial College, UK• HLRS, Germany

Thank YouFor Attending The 40th

HPC User ForumMeeting

Thank YouFor Attending The 40th

HPC User ForumMeeting

Please email:hpc@idc.com

Or check out:www.hpcuserforum.com

Questions?Questions?