Date post: | 02-Jan-2016 |
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Underserved MarketsWe are Still We are Still
Building As Building As If Every If Every Buyer is a Buyer is a Nuclear Nuclear Family…Family…
But The Truth Is The Average Home The Average Home
Square Footage is Square Footage is UPUP 46% 46%
The Average The Average Household Size Household Size is is DownDown 23% 23%
AT LEAST 1/3 OF AT LEAST 1/3 OF YOUR BUYERS YOUR BUYERS
WORK WORK FULL TIMEFULL TIME FROM HOMEFROM HOME
86 million people in this 86 million people in this country are singlecountry are single
51% of all adult women 51% of all adult women in this country are in this country are
single.single.
Over this 20 month stretch, the average base price rose only + 1.1%
Over the following 3 month stretch, the average base price rose + 14.2%!!!
Over the next 4 month stretch, the average base price decreased - 3.3%
But what is the big picture telling us?
Up +69%Since Jan. 2001
“Average” & “Median” percentage increase for Albuquerque (Year over year comparison)
* NEW HOME BROCHURE BASE ASKING PRICE (Single Family Homes)
November 2006 average = $256,174
November 2007 average = $253,847
0.9% decrease
Source: SalesTraq of New Mexico - www.salestraq.com/albuquerque
That’s the first year over year average price decrease since February of 2004
In the months ahead, base prices of new homes will continue to
decline. This will be accomplished primarily by downgrading the
“standard features”.
Price Prediction:
The new homes of the future will continue to be designed
and driven largely by the need for “energy efficiency”
Certainty:
Residential Housing Update
in the Albuquerque Area
Jim Folkman Executive Vice President
Home Builders Association of Central New Mexico
November 8, 2007
Single Family Permit History
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
10000
'87
'90
'93
'96
'99
'02
'05
'08
'11
Number ofPermits
Blah bah
Blah
Blah
Blah
Down-Turn Significance
Profound and direct effect on home construction industry and economy of New Mexico.
$1.3 billion industry in ABQ Metro.
$65.9 million in GRT Revenues
Reminds us that our industry is, inevitably and historically, cyclical in nature
Magnitude of Foreclosure Problem
Currently 732,000 foreclosures in process
Another 410,000 soon to be in process 46% of all mortgages placed in recent
years had less than 5% DP
Magnitude of Foreclosure Problem
One third during same time were sub-prime Adjustable rates could go from, say,
7.5% to 11% at adjustment point Foreclosure rate in NM is currently
ranked 44th, but that will probably change
Where Will Homes and Communities Be Built
in the Future? Fewer and fewer stand-alone subdivisions
More and more master-planned and mixed-use communities
Fewer than 14,000 lots left in COA, which is a 4-5 year supply
Over 170,000 in planning by master- planned communities
Increasing opportunities in redevelopment