Welcome to the Symposium on
Space Transportation Policy and Market Risks
November 16, 2011
Space Policy InstituteElliott School of International Affairs
George Washington University1957 E Street, NW
Washington, D.C. 20052
Challenges for Government Initiatives
• Costs for on-going conflicts
• Rise in transfer payments • Aging population/health care costs
• Infrastructure recapitalization
• Non-State threats: physical, WMD, cyber
• Global economic turmoil
2
Past Assumptions for Launch Demand and Technical Readiness
3
Known Production Capacity Per Year
0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 Comments
RD-180 20
RP Inline Vehicle Exceeds known Production Capacity for 4 flights per year (2 flts likely)
RS-25D Sidemount meets production exactly while SSME Inline exceed production by 67% for 4 flights per year. RS-25E
RS-68 (all) 36 40 Original
RS-68 Inline does not exceed production capacity even with USAF buy (4 flts possible)
RL-10Inline RP exactly meet production, but not with USAF buy
J-2X 4(50%)
RP Inline Exceeds J-2X Production by 200+% for 4 flights 2 Flights likely/RS-68 Inline does not exceed J-2X production
Solid Boosters 5-Segment
24
All vehicles do not exceed solid production capability
Policy, Architecture, and Acquisition Decisions Determine the Space Launch Industrial Base
National Aeronautics and Space Administration 2009 55
12(100%)
16-20
8(33%)
8
28 (140%)
20 (167%)
20(56%)
20 (100%)
12
20
NASA rate at 4 heavy lift flights per year. Air Force at EELV rate.Green represents known/estimated production at present.
Agenda
• Keynote Presentation – the Space Industrial Base• Panel 1 – Alternative Market Possibilities• Panel 2 – Financial and Market Risks for Space Launch
ProvidersLunch• Panel 3 – Public/Private Sector Roles and Responsibilities• Panel 4 – Near-term Risks to the Space Launch Industrial Base• Panel 5 – International Customers, Competitors and Partners• Closing and SummariesReception
6
National Space Transportation Policy Review
• NSC-led policy review currently underway
– Possible release by end of 2011
• Some likely issues:
– Human space transportation
• SLS , MPCV, EELV, New Entrants
– Criteria for USG use of new launch vehicles
– Space Industrial base – rocket motors
– Technology development
– Interagency coordination – NASA, AF, NRO
– International cooperation – critical paths?
• Extension of INKSNA wavier for payments to Russia?
7
International Commercial Cooperation
8
Key Policy Questions
What is the relationship of human space transportation to larger U.S. foreign policy, economic, and national security interests?
Is there is a need for independent U.S. government human access to space, and if not, the identification of those entities upon which we are willing to depend for such access;
Is it in the larger interests of the United States to invite international partnerships in regard to capabilities which are on the so-called “critical path” for common exploration goals;
The degree to and roles in which the U.S. government should foster the development, and embrace the capabilities, of “commercial space” in the furtherance of national goals;
The proper role of NASA in the human expansion into space, and in particular NASA’s disparate functions as 'innovator and technology developer' vs. ‘designer/developer/smart buyer’ of new systems, and ‘system operator’ vs. ‘service customer’.