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Welded Tube and Pipe Market Tracker OCTG • linepipe •standard pipe • mechanical tubing • HSS Issue 110 April 2013 26 April 2013 www.metalbulletinresearch.com Contents Market prices 2 Americas 3 Asia 6 Europe and Middle East 9 Stainless 12 Little room to decline for welded tubular prices z The rise in US welded tube and pipe prices last month receded in April as scrap and substrate prices slipped through the month. Scrap prices are also expected to decline for May settlements. Both energy and non-energy tubing exhibited price declines as the prevailing fundamentals can not support pricing. HR coil is down $20/ton while plate prices resisted the cuts so far. This is now putting pressure on LSAW mills looking to compete with spiral mills for project work. Prices for commodity- grade welded OCTG have likely reached a near-term floor, but there is still room for declines in pricing for premium grades, constricting the discount for lesser grades. z Chinese steelmakers, including their pipe and tube mills, are experiencing another spring retreat. Production was quick to recover but output has run ahead of orders. Ordinary HR coil prices have fallen by Rmb200/tonne ($32/tonne) but steelmakers have tried to maintain prices for line pipe and casing grades, with apparent success. Popular construction grades of pipe are down only marginally. Surprisingly, 300 series welded stainless steel grades are unchanged on the month, despite the continued fall in nickel prices. z Despite an acute weakness in demand, EU prices have been fairly resistant to declines. The hopes of a seasonal pick-up in sales spurred sellers to show resolve. Sentiment now, however, appears to be turning increasingly bearish, raising the likelihood for prices to take a leg lower next month. Europe in particular with all its woes is far from out the woods. Weak economic conditions, including rising unemployment, will extend at least through the first half of 2013 amid austerity programs. Full resolution of the sovereign debt crisis still looks some way off. z Coil prices undermine US welded price stability: page 3 z Chinese output outpaces orders: page 6 z EU prices maintain footing for now: page 9 Source: Metal Bulletin Research Global historical HSS prices ($/tonne) We expect strengthening prices later in the year as construction activity improves 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Q4 13 US HSS domestic European HSS domestic Turkey HSS fob Chinese HSS fob THIS IS YOUR FREE SAMPLE This is April’s issue and does not contain the latest analysis, forecasts or data. Only subscribers have access to our most valuable and up-to-date information April 2013
Transcript

Welded Tube and Pipe Market TrackerOCTG • linepipe •standard pipe • mechanical tubing • HSS

Issue 110April 201326 April 2013www.metalbulletinresearch.com

ContentsMarket prices 2Americas 3Asia 6Europe and Middle East 9Stainless 12

Little room to decline for welded tubular prices

The rise in US welded tube and pipe prices last month receded in April as scrap and substrate prices slipped through the month. Scrap prices are also expected to decline for May settlements. Both energy and non-energy tubing exhibited price declines as the prevailing fundamentals can not support pricing. HR coil is down $20/ton while plate prices resisted the cuts so far. This is now putting pressure on LSAW mills looking to compete with spiral mills for project work. Prices for commodity-grade welded OCTG have likely reached a near-term floor, but there is still room for declines in pricing for premium grades, constricting the discount for lesser grades.

Chinese steelmakers, including their pipe and tube mills, are experiencing another spring retreat. Production was quick to recover but output has run ahead of orders. Ordinary HR coil prices have fallen by Rmb200/tonne ($32/tonne) but steelmakers have tried to maintain prices for line pipe and casing grades, with apparent success. Popular construction grades of pipe are down only marginally. Surprisingly, 300 series welded stainless steel grades are unchanged on the month, despite the continued fall in nickel prices.

Despite an acute weakness in demand, EU prices have been fairly resistant to declines. The hopes of a seasonal pick-up in sales spurred sellers to show resolve. Sentiment now, however, appears to be turning increasingly bearish, raising the likelihood for prices to take a leg lower next month. Europe in particular with all its woes is far from out the woods. Weak economic conditions, including rising unemployment, will extend at least through the first half of 2013 amid austerity programs. Full resolution of the sovereign debt crisis still looks some way off.

Coil prices undermine US welded price stability: page 3 Chinese output outpaces orders: page 6 EU prices maintain footing for now: page 9

Source: Metal Bulletin Research

Global historical HSS prices ($/tonne) We expect strengthening prices later in the year as construction activity improves

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Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Q4 13

US HSS domestic European HSS domestic Turkey HSS fob Chinese HSS fob

THIS IS YOUR FREE SAMPLE

This is April’s issue and does not contain

the latest analysis, forecasts or data.

Only subscribers have access to our most

valuable and up-to-date information

April 2013

Subscribe today!

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2 Welded Steel Tube and Pipe Market Tracker April 2013

Metal Bulletin Research

Welded market indicators

Source: Metal Bulletin Research

Welded demand indicators month-on-month* performance, Stronger natural gas prices

may support a recovery in gas drilling rates

Source: Metal Bulletin Research

Welded substrate month-on-month performance, Oversupply has caused finished steel prices

to languish in the second quarter

Current and forecast tube and pipe pricesForecast Q2 13

Currency Local $/tonne Local $/tonne Local $/tonne Local $/tonneEUHollow structural sections (1) ex-mill €/tonne 510 664 510 663 580 767 515 670ERW linepipe (X42) fob €/tonne 720 937 720 936 800 1,058 725 943UOE linepipe (X65) (4) fob €/tonne 1,220 1,587 1,220 1,586 1,305 1,726 1,225 1,594Spiral DSAW (X65) pipe fob €/tonne 980 1,275 980 1,274 1,050 1,388 985 1,282Cold-formed precision tube €/tonne 815 1,060 815 1,059 865 1,144 820 1,067Cold-drawn precision tube €/tonne 1,050 1,366 1,050 1,365 1,105 1,461 1,055 1,373TurkeyHollow structural sections (1) fob $/tonne n/a 680 n/a 680 n/a 750 n/a 700USAMidwest domestic hollow sections(2) ex-mill $/ton 853 940 871 960 930 1,025 862 950Midwest domestic ERW linepipe (X42) ex-mill $/ton 1,089 1,200 1,098 1,210 1,166 1,285 1,102 1,215West Coast ERW linepipe import (X42) c&f $/ton 998 1,100 1,007 1,110 1,034 1,140 1,012 1,115UOE linepipe (X65) (4) ex-mill $/ton 1,329 1,465 1,329 1,465 1,347 1,485 1,334 1,470Annealed ERW OCTG tubing (3) ex-mill $/ton 1,315 1,450 1,324 1,460 1,406 1,550 1,324 1,460Spiral DSAW (X65) pipe ex-mill $/ton 1,102 1,215 1,102 1,215 1,143 1,260 1,116 1,230Japan exportERW linepipe (X42) fob $/tonne n/a 960 n/a 970 n/a 1,050 n/a 965UOE linepipe (X65) (4) fob $/tonne n/a 1,730 n/a 1,730 n/a 1,700 n/a 1,735Chinese exportERW linepipe (API 5L grade b) fob $/tonne n/a 710 n/a 740 n/a 800 n/a 708UOE linepipe (X60) (4) fob $/tonne n/a 1,120 n/a 1,130 n/a 1,215 n/a 1,120Asia regionHollow structural sections (1) fob $/tonne n/a 670 n/a 680 n/a 700 n/a 675(1) 50mm x 3mm HR (2) 2"x1/8" HR (3) Source: at Houston distributors (4) Sourced from API-quality heavy plate

Current coil and plate pricesCurrency HR coil(1) CR coil HDG plate 304 CR(2) 316 CR(2)304 HR(2,3)316 HR(2,3)

EU, ex-mill €/tonne 493 584 583 528 2,325 3,352 2,195 3,172EU import, cfr $/tonne 622 707 781 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aUSA, ex-mill $/ton 600 695 800 740 2,598 3,633 2,517 3,533USA import, cif $/ton 600 705 900 720 2,673 3,713 2,597 3,613Gulf import cif $/tonne 614 n/a 809 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aCIS Black Sea fob $/tonne 546 621 n/a 570 n/a n/a n/a n/aJapan domestic $/tonne 674 829 1,285 808 2,774 3,974 2,674 3,824South Korea domestic $/tonne n/a n/a n/a n/a 3,058 4,258 2,894 4,094China export $/tonne n/a n/a n/a n/a 2,859 4,256 2,682 4,005Source: Metal Bulletin Research

Carbon Stainless

Apr 12Mar 13Apr 13

-2.1%

0.0%

-1.8%

-4.3%

-6.0%

-4.5%

-3.3%

-7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0%

MBR Raw Materials Index

Asia CR 304

EU CR 304

USA CR 304

China HR

EU HR

USA HR

-9.4%

7.1%

-5.2%

-9.3%

-2.4%

2.6%

-23.9%

-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

WTI

Henry Hub natural gas

Global rig count

US natural gas rig count

EU IP (y/y % ch)

US non-res. cons. Exp. (y/y %ch)

China FDI:ytd construction (y/y %ch)

*Unless otherwise noted

Do you need to downloadthis data into Excel?Subscribe todayAs well as the monthly issue, you’ll also get all thisdata, downloadable into Excel:

lWelded tube and pipe prices with five-year history and one-year forecast

l North American shipments of welded pipe by product withextensive historical data

l North American apparent consumption of welded pipe with five-year history

l Comprehensive archive of Asian welded tube production data bymajor country

l European welded tube production and apparent consumptiondata by major country

l Trade flows for developing economies in Africa, Middle East, and Eastern Europe

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April 2013 Welded Steel Tube and Pipe Market Tracker 3

Metal Bulletin Research

Americas Market Analysis

l HR coil prices undermine welded tubular pricesl But plate maintained hikesl Mexican linepipe demand poised to surge

Market Outlook Any increases in welded tube and pipe prices in March evaporated in April as costs declined amid still-weak fundamentals.  Domestic HR coil prices fell about $20/ton in April following the decline in scrap prices.  Welded pipe and tubing demand, overall, remains stable, but excess supply from rising output and imports continue to weigh on the market.  Structural tubing prices gave back all gains last month, despite the brighter outlook for non-

residential construction.   Distributors continue to pare down inventories and will be slow to rebuild given prevailing availability. OCTG prices also stepped back this month, but with the higher grades exhibiting stronger declines.  LSAW producers, however, will have to contend with stronger plate prices relative to coil.  Nevertheless, scrap prices are  poised to fall again next month as steelmakers resist further finished-product price cuts.  

Welded tubular prices hit again by cost cutsAny stability in March welded tube and pipe prices receded as scrap and substrate costs declined through April, eroding what support there was for the market last month. HR coil prices are down about $20/ton on average and with pressure mounting from falling raw materials costs and more-than-adequate supply. As a result, HSS prices are now back to early-year levels, around $940/tonne, giving back all gains achieved in March. Some small-order spot tonnage is achieving prices at the higher prices but any large order is discounted. Import arrivals are slowing but availability remains high and distributors maintain cautious control of inventories. The positive signs for demand out of the construction sector have yet to absorb the material deemed as excess at this point.

OCTG pricing is following a similar path, giving back any recent price increases. MBR notes, however, that prices are approaching or have reached a floor. Lower commodity grades like API 5CT J/K55 did not register as steep a decline as higher-grade or premium material. MBR surmises that a near-term floor was reached for the lower grades and output scaled back toward higher grades. Excess material along the value chain is weakening prices while demand stagnates.

Plate prices resist trend, could affect LSAW producersMeanwhile, after disappointment at the beginning of the year, US plate mills have had a better first quarter than coil producers, making some headway towards their earlier price targets. This may be temporarily the result of SSAB’s planned maintenance shutdown, but the market is generally

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US ERW linepipe prices

Source: Metal Bulletin Research

Source: MSCI, Metal Bulletin Research

Total carbon steel pipe and tube inventories and shipments (‘000 tons) The destocking cycle continued through March as

shipment rates remained steady

Source: Metal Bulletin Research

Mexican ERW linepipe (under 16” OD) exports (‘000 tonnes) Domestic demand is understood to be rising, as is

competiton in the international market

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4 Welded Steel Tube and Pipe Market Tracker April 2013

Metal Bulletin Research

tighter than for coil with delivery in 5-6 weeks. Distributor inventories of plate fell from over 3 months cover in 2012 to less than 3 months this year, and it is likely distributors will keep supplies in check through this year.

The higher plate prices relative to coil will weigh on longitudinal-welded large OD linepipe producers’ margins. Already at a disadvantage to the lower-cost spiral-welded linepipe producers, but the falling coil costs relative to plate will further hurt their ability to compete. While commodity-grade coil sells at a discount to that which is sold to API pipe producers, the weakness and oversupply in the domestic coil market has left steelmakers more interested in supplying to pipe and tubing producers than in the past. In their first quarter earnings calls, steelmakers such as Nucor specifically point to opportunities in the pipe and tubing markets, leading MBR to surmise that API-quality coil sales will be aggressively priced in order to secure sales.

 Mexican linepipe demand continues to climb…Nevertheless, the outlook for pipeline construction remains bolstered by the need for infrastructure to transport energy products to consuming areas and relieve price pressures due to increased storage. Projects are planned that would construct infrastructure capacity to Mexico. By the end of the decade, US natural gas exports to Mexico are expected to increase by 1-3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). A number of projects and expansions have been approved to bring natural gas to the US-Mexico border. For example, El Paso Natural Gas has the Sierrita Lateral Project in Arizona while in south Texas, expansions by Kinder Morgan, Tennessee Gas and Spectra will increase capacity across the border by 1.2Bcf/d.

Nevertheless, Mexican capacity is planned to support the increase in cross-border capacity. Over the past six months, MBR has followed the rise in imports of large OD linepipe to Mexico as PEMEX launches pipeline construction projects. This rise in imports will continue through the rest of the decade as Mexican environmental concerns promote the increase of natural gas use from fuel oil, especially for power generation.

2009 2010 2011 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 current month ytd

USA (ton)Continous and ERW pipeStandard pipe 401,612 397,007 599,317 29,580 29,532 38,275 29,485 30,128 -20% -20%Oil country goods 324,657 805,770 1,001,922 73,279 68,596 62,002 64,119 68,974 -26% -26%Linepipe 86,362 231,672 241,877 23,428 23,176 9,201 6,972 7,702 -61% -61%Mechanical tubing 271,386 331,031 360,090 27,268 35,092 27,357 26,252 30,764 0% 0%Structural tube and piping 52,821 51,065 40,082 3,261 3,467 3,384 2,628 3,177 -31% -31%Pipe for piling 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -Total 1,136,838 1,816,545 2,243,288 156,816 159,683 140,219 129,456 140,745 -24% -24%SAW pipe 150,893 75,828 120,607 31,257 31,218 26,723 27,795 140,745 385% 385%

Total seamless and welded pipeStandard pipe 627,455 728,683 859,214 56,432 53,126 63,173 48,006 47,602 -25% -25%Oil country goods 1,042,030 2,163,128 2,630,592 201,464 208,232 189,533 225,536 210,123 -12% -12%Linepipe 16" OD and under 144,747 272,789 343,506 30,471 32,144 17,290 22,212 16,086 -19% -19%Linepipe over 16" OD, under 24" OD 34,899 43,884 86,449 22,604 22,593 19,251 19,582 18,315 -10% -10%Linepipe 24" OD and over 6,749 15,973 52,646 4,253 411 2,197 364 160 -98% -98%Mechanical tubing 428,291 574,240 724,681 49,381 59,537 45,654 42,598 53,688 -11% -11%Pressure tubing 23,680 43,055 51,343 2,655 3,056 2,772 1,843 2,542 -46% -46%Structural tube and piping 67,966 66,863 58,340 3,824 4,436 4,384 3,645 4,639 -16% -16%Pipe for piling - - - 0 0 0 0 0 - -Stainless tube and piping 9,773 11,360 8,454 907 1,043 904 890 1,228 18% 18%Total 2,385,630 3,919,975 4,815,225 371,991 384,578 345,158 364,676 354,383 -16% -16%

Mexican production (tonne)Welded pipe 466,000 480,352 513,458 58,000 49,000 47,000 48,000 - 17% 17%

Canadian production (tonne)Linepipe up to 4.5" OD 2,241 16,529 32,793 1,506 1,479 2,063 2,882 2,289 -53% -53%Linepipe from 4.5" OD - 16" OD 101,430 117,053 183,019 22,768 14,168 20,560 11,996 8,251 -60% -60%Linepipe over 16" OD 343,647 315,128 239,672 20,363 31,987 35,212 36,621 31,624 224% 224%Hollow structural sections up to 16" OD 136,971 137,366 77,140 5,372 5,513 6,022 7,351 7,210 -17% -17%Hollow structural sections over 16" OD 376,859 - - - - - - - - -Standard pipe up to 4.5" OD 30,332 28,197 28,038 1,750 2,555 1,677 2,569 2,647 -20% -20%Standard pipe from 4.5" OD - 16" OD 15,021 13,031 6,712 3,342 1,928 2,922 1,469 2,721 444% 444%Mechanical tubing, welded from HR coil 112,817 130,777 206,068 12,957 11,784 12,228 15,331 19,545 104% 104%Mechanical tubing, welded from CR coil 87,577 117,476 80,718 11,074 10,641 8,261 4,795 6,578 -9% -9%OCTG, welded and seamless casing 288,551 627,503 618,647 65,039 71,656 62,284 61,780 36,711 -33% -33%OCTG, welded and seamless tubing 32,759 198,489 189,941 4,917 7,304 6,122 6,755 13,814 -17% -17%Total 1,537,775 1,875,213 1,662,748 149,087 159,016 157,351 151,549 131,389 -4% -4%Source: AISI, Statcan, various, Metal Bulletin Research

% change year-on-year

North American shipments of welded pipe

April 2013 Welded Steel Tube and Pipe Market Tracker 5

Metal Bulletin Research

While development of Mexican shale gas deposits is likely decades away, access to inexpensive natural gas from the USA and Canada will be available once the infrastructure is expanded or put in place. The Mexican government’s pipeline plans amount to $8bn in investments and include two large pipelines as well as smaller projects to connect the pipelines to consumers, stretching as far as 2,000 miles. Mexican linepipe capacity alone is not enough to support these projects, so imports will be common for the medium to long term.

…but the downward trend in industrial output will affect tubing demand and exportsNevertheless, Mexican demand for non-energy tubing in manufacturing and construction is expected to slip. Mexican economic activity retreated in the first quarter of 2013. Exports, industrial production, and construction declined at the start of the year, following slower growth in late 2012. Total Mexican industrial production fell 1.2% year-over-year in February, after posting a slight increase the previous month, as most of the major contributing sectors registered declines. The steel-intensive machinery and equipment manufacturing component fell 7.4% month-on-month in February and 1.5% year-over-year. Transportation equipment is recovering from a dismal December measure, but remained 0.2% off February 2012 results.

Vehicle export growth fell into negative territory early this year, signaling that the important export sector is weakening, owing to muted demand growth from the major trading partners. Meanwhile, internal demand is not providing relief either as construction growth also declined from year-ago levels.

Nevertheless, Mexican crude steel output climbed 11% February from year-ago levels, while finished steel production was up 8%. According to available trade data, Mexican welded tube and pipe exports fell 4.5% year-over-year between 2011 and 2012, with fourth-quarter 2012 exports declining 10.5% year-over-year from the fourth quarter of 2011. With both domestic and export consumption in retreat, it is likely that producers will look to secure sales with steep discounts or else cut output.

2010 2011 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 current month ytdUSA (ton)Linepipe over 16" OD Shipments 59,857 139,095 21,763 26,857 23,004 21,448 19,946 45% 127%

Imports 773,967 635,847 90,809 51,187 76,540 94,245 106,351 42% 77%Exports 73,656 60,480 29,154 23,382 28,074 38,141 16,987 359% 251%Apparent consumption 760,168 714,462 83,418 54,663 71,470 77,552 109,309 28% 72%

Linepipe 16" OD and under Shipments 272,789 343,506 23,865 30,471 32,144 17,290 22,212 -5% -5%Imports 498,335 869,487 91,079 65,926 127,562 101,747 38,435 5% 29%Exports 88,718 72,784 7,018 7,015 14,788 7,185 7,471 118% 4%Apparent consumption 682,406 1,140,209 107,927 89,382 144,918 111,852 53,177 -6% 20%

OCTG casing and tubing Shipments 805,770 1,001,922 38,867 73,279 68,596 62,002 64,119 -21% -15%Imports 1,089,595 1,409,074 148,237 162,195 160,277 145,874 62,366 -13% 30%Exports 211,641 258,381 14,755 21,291 19,590 22,039 19,727 -32% -4%Apparent consumption 1,683,724 2,152,614 172,350 214,183 209,283 185,838 106,758 -14% 13%

Hollow structural sections Shipments 51,065 40,082 3,457 3,261 3,467 3,384 2,628 -20% 20%Imports 386,495 456,909 38,397 38,172 35,803 34,205 26,322 -10% 3%Exports 185,420 217,815 20,571 18,629 22,989 21,547 17,740 -24% 14%Apparent consumption 252,139 279,176 21,283 22,805 16,281 16,042 11,211 21% -4%Shipments of all welded tubing 1,892,373 2,363,895 162,392 188,073 190,901 166,942 157,251 -12% 1%Imports of all welded tubing 3,658,229 4,312,963 447,165 410,295 482,427 458,407 302,323 9% 29%Exports of all welded tubing 1,074,741 1,203,130 131,443 132,178 159,283 144,106 100,775 -3% 23%Total apparent consumption 4,475,861 5,473,729 478,115 466,190 514,045 481,243 358,800 2% 18%

Mexico (tonne)Production of all welded tubing 480,352 513,458 56,000 58,000 49,000 47,000 48,000 17% 17%Imports of all welded tubing 293,670 319,109 45,627 45,136 48,190 31,942 36,776 30% 39%Exports of all welded tubing 367,251 396,246 32,124 24,897 27,679 25,016 26,043 -3% -5%Total apparent consumption 406,771 436,321 69,503 78,238 69,511 53,926 58,733 38% 53%

Canada (tonne)Linepipe over 16" OD Total shipments 315,128 239,672 14,156 20,363 31,987 35,212 36,621 80% 21%

Imports 208,955 139,485 29,552 20,602 35,131 36,784 22,806 38% 99%Exports 124,721 153,560 25,038 13,867 24,310 27,681 37,755 760% 54%Apparent consumption 399,362 225,597 18,669 27,099 42,808 44,314 21,672 -33% 47%

Linepipe 16" OD and under Total shipments 133,582 215,812 25,006 24,274 15,647 22,623 14,878 -45% 8%Imports 56,494 49,677 4,917 9,063 8,128 8,761 5,263 0% 46%Exports 5,146 13,982 2,648 47 428 342 1,123 1522% 145%Apparent consumption 184,930 251,508 27,276 33,290 23,347 31,041 19,018 -41% 8%

Hollow structural sections Total shipments 137,366 77,140 5,182 5,372 5,513 6,022 7,351 4% -1%Imports 132,008 149,776 13,864 12,351 15,576 16,185 12,437 -26% 19%Exports 190,243 207,038 15,331 14,355 14,730 14,756 10,273 -24% -10%Apparent consumption 79,131 19,877 3,716 3,368 6,359 7,452 9,516 -8% 239%Shipments of all welded tubing* 1,875,213 1,662,748 131,219 149,087 159,016 157,351 151,549 2% 2%Imports of all welded tubing 1,444,519 1,505,570 129,650 120,079 158,481 144,156 135,469 -2% 15%Exports of all welded tubing 969,857 1,017,188 87,604 73,580 86,924 84,718 85,945 32% 7%Total apparent consumption 2,349,875 2,151,130 173,265 195,586 230,573 216,789 201,073 -9% 8%

Source: AISI, Statcan, Metal Bulletin Research

*also includes seamless linepipe, OCTG tubing and casing

% change year-to-year

North American trade balance of welded pipe

6 Welded Steel Tube and Pipe Market Tracker April 2013

Metal Bulletin Research

Asia Market Analysis

l Slower growth keeps Chinese prices weakl Trade complaints against Asian exports to the US increase… l … but not all allegations of dumping stand up to examination

China – seasonal recovery starts late and ends earlyIt has been another disappointing spring for Chinese steelmakers, including their pipe and tube mills. Production was quick to recover but output has run ahead of orders. Ordinary HR coil prices have fallen by Rmb200/tonne ($32/tonne) but steelmakers have tried to maintain prices for line pipe and casing grades, with apparent success. Popular construction grades of pipe, such as Q235 (A53B) are only slightly cheaper than in March; pipe diameter 4” (114mm) wall 0.15” (3.75mm) was selling for Rmb4,010/tonne ($647/tonne) only Rmb10/tonne lower, less than $2/tonne.

Surprisingly, 300 series welded stainless steel grades are unchanged on the month, despite the continued fall in nickel prices. Industrial grade welded pipes continue to track the prices of equivalent seamless pipe; n Wenzhou and Wuxi welded prices for 3mm wall pipe are Rmb18,500-21,500/tonne ($2,986-3,712/tonne) compared with Rmb17,800-21,400 ($2,873-3,454/tonne) for seamless pipe in the same locations. Chinese exporters of stainless steel welded pipe have run into opposition in Turkey. A year ago two Turkish producers called for an investigation into imports from both China and Taiwan. In a final judgment AD levies of up to 25.27% have been imposed on exports from China and up to 14.65% on Taiwanese imports.

Limited price gains for API pipesAPI grades have made some gains. After remaining unchanged following sharp falls in February, tubing pipe prices have been marked up by Rmb150/tonne ($24/tonne) across the board – but

Market Outlook The Chinese government may maintain its balancing act, controlling inflation but keeping the economy growing at a rates of at least for 7.5% GDP growth, regarded as near the minimum needed to avoid social unrest.  Unfortunately tube and pipe mills have still to adjust to this slower rate of growth, and possibly, lower steel intensity; stocks are high, output is high and new capacity is being laid down.  Prices in China will remain fragile, and ,mills will still rely on export markets to 

clear stocks.  Trade restraints making this progressively more difficult for Chinese mills, in Asian as well as North American markets.  Exports from other Asian producers, are also under scrutiny; most have excess capacity yet are expanding further. 

Source: National Bureau

Chinese PMI ManufacturingThe manufacturing sector is barely in growth territory

Sources: Metal Bulleting Research

Japanese SAW linepipe exports (‘000 tonnes, y/y change), A weaker yen is expected to help turn

around the declining trend in export tonnage this year

40

45

50

55

60

Mar09

Sep09

Mar10

Sep10

Mar11

Sep11

Mar12

Sep12

Mar13

-100,000

-75,000

-50,000

-25,000

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

Dec08

May09

Oct09

Mar10

Aug10

Jan11

Jun11

Nov11

Apr12

Sep12

Feb13

600

650

700

750

Q12012

Q32012

Q12013

Q32013

Q12014

$/to

n

Asian HSS, fob prices

Source: Metal Bulletin Research

April 2013 Welded Steel Tube and Pipe Market Tracker 7

Metal Bulletin Research

this falls far short of making good the sharp falls in February, which amounted to around Rmb400/tonne ($65/tonne).

Price movements in API casing pipes have been mixed. Prices of large sizes (13-3/8”) remain at Rmb6,700/tonne ($1,082/tonne); smaller sizes have made gains of Rmb50-150/tonne ($8-24/tonne), but these rises still leave some prices as much as Rmb1,000/tonne ($162/tonne) below their January level. There have been no corresponding rises in export prices. ERW API line pipe prices remain in the range $720-850/tonne.

Capacity in Asia continues to rise Other Asian producers in addition to China have excess welded pipe capacity, and are obliged to look abroad for sales. Nevertheless more capacity continues to be added. In October last year Japan’s recently formed Nippon Steel & Sumikin Metal Products Company (NSSMC) set up a joint venture, Nippon Steel & Sumikin Metal Products Vietnam, with Bacviet Steel (Vietnam) and other Japanese companies. Later this year or early in 2014 it will begin

2010 2011 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 y-o-y ytdJapanTotal productionSubmerged arc welded 778,323 785,569 57,086 63,734 66,292 74,101 61,811 9% -4%Butt welded 160,450 164,160 12,164 13,282 12,666 13,199 12,505 -3% -7%Electric resistance welded 2,805,003 2,870,286 236,983 232,630 263,522 249,196 246,956 8% 1%Stainless and alloyArc welded 893,380 706,027 79,870 58,003 67,957 43,958 89,732 -22% 27%Electric resistance welded 356,165 393,824 23,523 32,501 23,659 21,884 36,354 15% -5%ExportsERW, DSAW, Spiral 1,354,302 1,232,290 119,156 91,360 115,646 109,457 100,956 -6% 14%Others 172,252 178,658 11,883 15,710 12,891 9,550 12,256 -36% -17%ImportsERW, DSAW, Spiral 1,884 1,950 1,352 2,109 3,103 3,337 2,013 47829% 617%Others 97,255 132,272 10,825 11,577 15,063 14,040 13,473 -12% 12%Apparent consumption 3,565,906 3,643,140 290,764 306,765 323,725 300,709 349,632 5% 1%InventoryHR tubes and pipes 302,800 319,598 323,088 314,209 327,519 331,776 325,766 4% 2%Cold drawn tubes and pipes 9,482 10,554 11,295 11,322 12,359 11,559 11,490 4% 7%Metallic coated pipes 43,481 47,214 49,082 48,088 47,975 48,024 51,939 8% 3%HR special pipes 199,288 174,171 178,405 194,918 172,443 152,807 249,096 17% 17%Cold drawn special pipe 7,984 8,629 11,350 10,578 12,027 12,263 11,065 3% 25%South KoreaTotal productionSpiral welded 292,497 278,619 19,853 20,636 21,923 22,585 24,542 -20% 2%Longitudinal submerged arc welded 483,857 527,352 52,643 53,400 39,932 48,444 41,459 -10% 18%Electric resistance welded (<16" OD) 3,191,182 3,271,068 277,285 280,375 300,609 328,896 311,707 24% 10%Electric resistance welded (>16" OD) 642,091 627,265 44,599 42,005 53,465 96,656 61,018 7% 10%Stainless and alloy electric welded 179,891 186,984 14,384 15,360 13,913 15,675 15,894 3% -5%ExportsERW, DSAW, Spiral 1,435,298 1,744,843 172,450 170,210 170,707 178,628 173,098 1% 18%Others 1,433,433 1,745,484 172,503 170,228 170,725 178,628 173,098 1% 18%ImportsERW, DSAW, Spiral 10,656 25,394 363 173 216 241 190 -92% -82%Others 67,269 73,247 4,736 8,085 5,752 5,427 6,181 17% 1%Apparent consumption 6,645,856 1,499,602 68,909 79,596 94,379 160,667 114,795 76% -12%InventoryTotal welded pipe inventory 441,555 470,071 556,027 546,703 554,777 581,187 572,156 18% 16%Spiral welded 17,809 12,617 13,631 14,578 15,634 14,873 16,186 37% 10%Longitudinal submerged arc welded 41,958 46,739 56,643 59,349 58,038 53,426 50,873 13% 10%Electric resistance welded (<16" OD) 277,477 254,918 314,681 306,405 315,745 335,453 328,570 26% 19%Electric resistance welded (>16" OD) 95,511 147,934 164,754 161,442 159,425 171,005 170,434 5% 15%Stainless and alloy electric welded 14,381 15,703 19,726 22,206 22,917 23,475 23,571 35% 29%ChinaTotal production 33,160,000 39,907,600 4,204,000 4,640,000 4,162,000 4,455,000 4,250,000 10% 21%ExportsERW, DSAW, Spiral 1,210,713 1,947,387 162,465 176,142 102,369 156,206 140,751 -21% 4%Others 1,482,158 1,608,928 141,314 150,625 128,031 138,181 139,947 -8% 4%ImportsERW, DSAW, Spiral 36,768 70,431 2,785 14,312 3,993 3,873 2,552 62% -37%Others 184,231 191,977 11,525 14,541 11,018 12,170 12,006 -22% -17%Apparent consumption 30,688,129 36,613,694 3,914,530 4,342,085 3,946,610 4,176,655 3,983,861 12% 22%Source: IISI, Customs statistics, KOSA, METI, Metal Bulletin Research

% change

Selected Asian production and trade data (tonne)

8 Welded Steel Tube and Pipe Market Tracker April 2013

Metal Bulletin Research

producing structural pipe for construction and civil engineering, for both domestic use and export. Capacity details have not been published.

Asian mills’ dependence on exports and consciousness that the US market is a prime target for their sales leads US producers to make frequent accusations of dumping against Asian pipe suppliers. The quasi-judicious process for examining allegations of unfair trading operated by the Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration (ITA) shows some to be mistaken.

For example, the ITA has at last issued interim findings from a survey of imports of circular welded pipe from Turkey received from January to December 2011. The extent of under-pricing – on the ITA’s definition – was disappearingly small, ranging from 0.24% to 0.3%. Such de minimis under pricing rules out any AD or countervailing levy. In another survey the ITA checked whether two of Thailand’s leading pipe mills, Saha Thai Steel Pipe and Pacific Pipe, traded unfairly with the USA during the period March 2011 to February 2012. The complaint fell because neither company made any shipments to the USA during the period.

For some time South Korean pipe exporters have been among the main suppliers to the USA and were unquestionably the leading overseas source in January, shipping 97,785 tonnes of OCTG and 79,429 tonnes of line pipe. US producers have been threatening the Koreans with a trade complaint for months. Korean producers deny under-pricing; on average their prices in January were $967/tonne, compared with goods from Taiwan, at $850/tonne and Vietnam at $842/tonne. No complaint has emerged so far, perhaps because there is a good chance that Korean pricing will be found entirely legitimate.

Anti-dumping dispute; defining country of originWhere AD levies have already been imposed on Asian exporters, US mills are also on the look out for attempts to divert exports via other countries. A Texas-based importer currently faces a legal challenge mounted by US Steel Corporation and Maverick Tube Corporation over pipes originating in China but brought in from Indonesia after heat treatment and processing to final specifications. It argues that the work in Indonesia amounts to a substantial transformation of the product, such that the products can be legitimately described as of Indonesian origin. As such this means it should avoid the AD levy that has normally been due on Chinese pipes since 2010.

US Steel and Maverick Tube claim that heat treatment and the other related processes are not as substantial as clear and well recognised manufacturing transformations such as the rolling down of imported slab, or the re-rolling of imported POSCO HR coil by US-Posco Industries (UPI). They even claim that the Indonesian processing arrangement was set up specifically to circumvent the AD order. The importers point out that the AD orders date back two to three years, the Indonesian arrangement was set up even earlier and this is the first time they have been challenged.

% change2010 2011 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 year to date

Net exports

IndiaSmall diameter welded (under 406.4mm) 208,336 379,978 28,136 28,465 33,290 24,982 28,742 22,242 20,339 25,287 - -15.7%Large diameter welded (over 406.4mm OD) 1,782,434 1,304,399 94,010 118,552 136,597 97,815 145,870 113,601 123,814 69,124 - 2.8%Stainless and alloy -9,336 -10,949 -879 -1,023 -866 -201 -842 -700 -1,014 -752 - -12.6%

TaiwanSmall diameter welded (under 406.4mm) 184,345 166,794 12,439 10,026 9,473 3,887 8,007 9,785 9,913 8,300 - -31.2%Large diameter welded (over 406.4mm OD) -2,564 -988 1,058 413 203 244 -591 37 -1,570 -1,056 - -181.1%Stainless and alloy 136,523 157,776 14,020 14,085 13,489 12,668 14,540 14,459 11,653 12,867 - 2.3%

ThailandSmall diameter welded (under 406.4mm) 101,441 59,749 8,989 12,398 9,531 5,522 18,400 8,494 2,714 -1,481 3,336 -172.6%Large diameter welded (over 406.4mm OD) 13,905 -97,690 1,594 -15,412 3,218 -22,318 1,163 3,893 -2,253 -22 -3,489 174.3%Stainless and alloy -10,826 -8,421 -61 -16 -302 -856 -535 -1,033 -898 -1,555 -1,791 841.0%

MalaysiaSmall diameter welded (under 406.4mm) 52,928 46,066 4,572 -1,850 3,118 5,913 6,430 4,469 6,204 -432 - -4.2%Large diameter welded (over 406.4mm OD) -179,825 128,919 -21,978 -25,886 -53,804 -14,361 -53,269 -71,818 -20,355 -16,102 - -271.6%Stainless and alloy 6,105 8,726 383 695 958 932 366 522 679 675 - 2.1%Source: Customs statistics, Metal Bulletin Research

Other Asian trade in welded pipe (tonne)

April 2013 Welded Steel Tube and Pipe Market Tracker 9

Metal Bulletin Research

Europe, Middle East and Africa

l No immediate let-up for Europe in sightl Prices set to take a leg lower following disappointing demandl Softer substrate costs ease pressure on producers

Europe is gripped by an imminent sense of price fatigueDespite the market weakness in Europe, monthly prices in Italy were mainly stable, although some declines of around 1.5% month-on-month were seen. Domestic prices for Italian pipes (ex-works, ex-vat) made from HR coil stood at around €580/tonne, while material coming from Turkey into Italy was noted to be competitively priced at €560/tonne CFR.

The prospects for discounts are now beginning to build in domestic European markets as sellers grow weary of a lack of demand. Moreover, buyers are likely to be reticent without discounts, having noted softer substrate costs. Prices in Eastern European held on despite weaker market conditions. In both eastern Europe, domestic ERW pipes made from HR coil stood broadly stable at around €550-€600/tonne, depending on location.

According to a recent report from the World Steel Association, EU steel demand is expected to contract by 0.5% in 2013 to 139.5m tonnes. However demand is likely to rebound, increasing by 3.3% to 144.1m tonnes in 2014. Furthermore exports are expected to stagnate at 2012 levels this year as international competition increases and the stronger Euro restricts future growth potential on key foreign markets. In contrast, the report expects GDP growth in the EU will remain stable at 1.5% in 2013 before expanding in 2014.

Market Outlook Despite an acute weakness in demand, prices have been fairly resistant to declines.  The hopes of a seasonal pick-up in sales spurred sellers to show resolve.  However sentiment now appears to be turning increasingly bearish, raising the likelihood for prices to take a leg lower next month.  Europe in particular with all its woes is far from out the woods.  Weak economic conditions, including rising unemployment, will extend at least through the first half of 2013 amid austerity. Full resolution of the sovereign debt crisis still looks some way off, as highlighted by recent developments in 

Cyprus and the lingering political stalemate in Italy.

Elsewhere in the Middle East we suspect producers are finding the export market challenging.  As such, material in their local markets is expected to build.  In the CIS, their competitive stance has ensured some price stability.  

Nevertheless we are not confident in the region as a whole to stave off growing pessimism in the short-term, as the miss-match between supply and demand becomes more evident.

Source: MB, TSI, SO

Monthly Turkish steel pipe exports (‘000 tonnes), Turkish exports slip back 48.6% month-on-

month in January to 31.9k tonnes

Welded substrate costsThe recent declines in substrate prices reduces the pressure

on producer margins

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan'12

Mar'12

May'12

Jul'12

Sep'12

Nov'12

Jan'13

Source: Metal Bulletin Research

500

550

600

650

700

750

Nov11

Jan12

Mar12

May12

Jul12

Sep12

Nov12

Jan13

Mar13

CIS export hot rolled coil $/tonne fob (BlackSea)Turkey domestic hot rolled coil $/tonne exw

600

650

700

750

800

Q12012

Q32012

Q12013

Q32013

Q12014

$/to

n

Turkish HSS, fob prices

Source: Metal Bulletin Research

10 Welded Steel Tube and Pipe Market Tracker April 2013

Metal Bulletin Research

Chiming with the overall sense of a lack-lustre European market, US tube and pipe maker Tenaris expects demand from its European customers to remain tepid. The company note that competition for standard products has increased as producers in Russia have stepped up production and exports. Aggressive sales by Ukrainian and Russian producers ensured prices held their trading ranges.

Over the past month prices of European HR coil and CR coil prices have fallen to €470-500/tonne and €540-570 per tonne CFR, respectively, while CIS-origin HR coil import offer prices into Europe now stand at $555 – 580/tonne CFR. It is widely recognized that overcapacity issues and poor demand continue to dog the sector. Alarmingly first quarter new passenger vehicle registrations in the eurozone of 2.1 million showed a decline of 14% compared with the same period a year ago and the lowest volume for a first quarter in over 20 years. The need therefore to stimulate lending has grown more urgent as the eurozone economy struggles to emerge from recession. Surveys out this week for Germany, Italy, Spain and France will likely show further declines in business and consumer confidence, while unemployment is predicted to jump in Spain and France. The political situation in Italy is still unresolved, and while Cyprus’ banking crisis was resolved with a bailout package, Slovenia faces a possible financial crunch of its own. As such pressure on the region is likely to mount in May.

Export data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute showed that welded tube products fell back by 48.6% month-on-month in January to 31.9k tonnes and by 31.2% compared with the same period last year. Although, volumes were noted too decline from the highest ever monthly level in 6 years, from December. In late-2012

2010 2011 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 m-o-m y-o-yGermanyShipments 2,610,000 2,634,000 237,000 237,000 237,000 241,127 2% 5%Imports 1,220,283 1,492,144 97,881 96,673 102,564 70,876 -31% -17%Exports 1,810,785 2,887,127 89,535 151,384 79,528 59,094 -26% -36%Apparent consumption 2,019,498 1,239,016 245,346 182,289 260,036 252,908 -3% 73%FranceShipments 564,000 576,000 34,000 34,000 34,000 36,664 8% -21%Imports 595,760 734,316 55,030 86,021 71,982 43,399 -40% -2%Exports 409,257 493,177 15,829 57,361 15,750 10,611 -33% -30%Apparent consumption 750,503 817,139 73,201 62,660 90,231 69,452 -23% 1%ItalyShipments 2,682,000 2,973,000 280,000 280,000 280,000 280,000 0% 12%Imports 191,535 237,215 17,959 16,180 9,933 13,383 35% -17%Exports 1,914,449 2,111,083 198,226 212,022 182,811 105,054 -43% 2%Apparent consumption 959,086 1,099,132 99,733 84,158 107,122 188,329 76% 24%UKShipments 516,000 498,000 52,000 53,000 54,000 47,271 -12% 23%Imports 112,244 145,094 2,142 2,561 4,367 4,137 -5% -63%Exports 76,599 116,047 14,534 15,519 51,880 23,131 -55% 68%Apparent consumption 551,645 527,047 39,608 40,042 6,487 28,277 336% -11%SpainShipments 654,000 624,000 40,000 41,000 42,000 43,252 3% -18%Imports 204,885 182,116 12,836 12,794 12,390 14,158 14% -21%Exports 317,725 333,311 28,472 37,349 25,040 33,630 34% 11%Apparent consumption 541,159 472,805 24,364 16,445 29,350 23,779 -19% -40%GreeceShipments 549,000 573,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 21,132 -4% -42%Imports 24,126 11,284 2,603 3,141 2,996 2,384 -20% 121%Exports 183,023 278,979 15,359 11,975 5,946 4,472 -25% -42%Apparent consumption 390,102 305,305 9,243 13,166 19,049 19,044 0% -36%NetherlandsShipments 417,000 432,000 38,542 41,944 46,273 43,375 -6% 9%Imports 400,002 424,166 30,263 27,374 38,146 27,145 -29% -13%Exports 396,450 434,040 33,469 23,439 32,697 19,177 -41% -21%Apparent consumption 420,552 422,127 35,336 45,879 51,722 51,343 -1% 18%Source: Customs statistics, Metal Bulletin Research; Italics = estimates

West European trade and shipment of welded pipe (tonne)% change

April 2013 Welded Steel Tube and Pipe Market Tracker 11

Metal Bulletin Research

Turkey appeared to show a greater preference towards markets outside of Europe, owing to scant demand. It could be argued that such a destination shift was successful in driving exports higher until January, by which time demand to most, if not all destinations was flagging.

Early indications suggest the seasonal pick-up in the Middle East is likely to disappoint In the Middle East Iranian prices have been experiencing increased volatility. The unstable currency has worked to top slice export prices by as much as 2% in dollar terms. Domestically, consumption is lack-lustre, although a few traders are excited by the notion of a seasonal pick-up. Moreover, Chinese exporters are showing greater conviction to the Iranian market, having seen their prices rise by around 2% month-on-month. We conclude that despite some optimism among sellers, buyers are likely to move cautiously in the near-term.

Elsewhere, consumers in the UAE are comforted by sufficient inventory levels, in effect pressing domestic suppliers to reduce prices. As a result, quotations have slipped lower, falling 1.5 - 2% month-on-month. Unlike the situation in Iran, Chinese exporters operating in the UAE and Saudi Arabia have been unable to push for higher prices.

Monthly Turkish steel pipe exports (k tonnes): Turkish exports slip back 48.6% month-on-month in January to 31.9k tonnes

2010 2011 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 m-o-m y-o-yCzech RepublicShipments 228,000 222,000 18,000 21,000 19,000 15,000 -21% 3%Imports 218,943 330,376 29,313 26,088 21,211 14,064 -34% -20%Exports 147,762 155,774 17,650 20,858 19,253 10,954 -43% 31%Apparent consumption 299,181 396,602 29,663 26,230 20,958 18,110 -14% -27%HungaryShipments 120,000 120,000 11,963 13,303 15,176 11,930 -21% 16%Imports 115,251 103,028 7,996 8,706 9,500 8,507 -10% -3%Exports 64,633 73,824 10,546 11,167 11,761 6,093 -48% 41%Apparent consumption 170,618 149,205 9,412 10,843 12,914 14,344 11% -9%RomaniaShipments 248,540 317,070 24,000 24,001 24,002 24,003 0% 0%Imports 111,040 113,301 12,675 13,858 11,093 8,225 -26% 21%Exports 83,380 99,995 12,755 14,219 9,415 5,384 -43% 12%Apparent consumption 276,200 330,377 23,920 23,639 25,680 26,844 5% 3%SlovakiaShipments 87,000 75,000 8,906 10,209 12,543 6,794 -46% 30%Imports 76,542 90,618 6,892 8,609 7,183 5,369 -25% 1%Exports 88,569 113,233 12,099 12,384 13,153 6,634 -50% 17%Apparent consumption 74,973 52,384 3,699 6,434 6,573 5,529 -16% 8%PolandShipments 699,000 771,000 55,000 56,000 57,000 51,236 -10% -9%Imports 268,867 326,297 36,095 42,422 41,686 23,844 -43% 21%Exports 159,334 163,309 20,660 21,363 18,245 14,965 -18% 25%Apparent consumption 808,533 933,987 70,435 77,059 80,442 60,114 -25% -5%RussiaShipments 6,499,107 7,123,400 614,785 572,078 518,287 577,325 11% -7%Imports 817,058 1,069,168 27,356 25,591 20,249 18,806 -7% -74%Exports 389,043 458,716 36,055 78,565 63,005 23,726 -62% 8%Apparent consumption 6,927,122 7,733,852 606,086 519,103 475,531 572,405 20% -17%UkraineShipments 1,052,634 1,426,100 88,549 111,995 84,232 73,003 -13% -13%Imports 28,443 41,148 3,059 3,787 2,542 2,820 11% -14%Exports 650,579 947,298 50,200 71,885 55,043 40,462 -26% -11%Apparent consumption 430,498 519,950 41,408 43,897 31,731 35,361 11% -16%Source: Customs statistics, Metal Expert, Metal Bulletin Research; italics = estimates

Central, East European and CIS trade and shipment of welded pipe (tonne)% change

12 Welded Steel Tube and Pipe Market Tracker April 2013

Metal Bulletin Research

Alloy surcharges on nickel-containing stainless steel fell in April, by an average of about 3% in Europe and 5% in the USA on the back of falling nickel costs through March.

Despite a brief recovery, nickel prices have continued to fall sharply over the last few weeks and are now down by about 10%, to just above $15,000/tonne, since the end of March. As such, alloy surcharges on the most common grades of stainless steel will drop slightly for May deliveries. A larger fall in these surcharges was only prevented by the rise in the second quarter ferrochrome contract price, which rose by 13% to $1.27/lb.

Those buying stainless steel substrate may find now a good time to buy, however. Although there is a degree of risk in trying to call the bottom of a market, Metal Bulletin Research notes that in each occasion in recent years that the nickel price has dipped below $16,000/tonne (in both August and November last year, as well as July 2009) it has quickly rebounded. It is thought that a floor in nickel prices of about $15,000/tonne exists nowadays due to the fact that marginal producers (generally nickel pig iron producers in China) operate at a cost-level just above this and so they suspend production, thereby reducing supply, when prices fall much below $16,000/tonne. Hence, with an expected uptick in nickel prices over the coming couple of months, and the recent rise in ferrochrome contract prices, we would expect to see surcharges move upward again in the coming months.

Welded Steel Tube an

d Pipe Market Tracker / Issue 110 / 26 April 2013

12 Welded Steel Tube and Pipe Market Tracker April 2013

Stainless steel

l Stainless prices generally stable despite falling nickel costs...l ...due to rising ferrochrome costsl Expected uptick in nickel prices suggests higher prices in coming months

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2010 2011 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 % chg ytd

Argentina 6,257 7,149 473 456 871 641 871 568 551 1.1%Brazil 16,913 21,517 3,834 2,254 2,627 1,857 2,353 2,978 2,656 48.3%Canada 6,645 10,193 1,015 878 896 329 278 490 564 -19.4%China -67,357 -81,011 -8,050 -8,272 -8,538 -8,670 -7,893 -8,533 -10,217 22.5%Czech -3,604 -10,791 -3,952 -3,118 -3,145 -3,494 -3,545 -3,827 -1,530 131.7%France 16,300 16,418 986 1,898 869 906 1,102 781 1,480 -17.7%Germany 34,546 49,306 4,437 5,814 1,649 2,525 2,380 6,019 2,412 -6.1%Greece 2,282 1,393 75 114 21 103 143 227 131 -4.8%Hungary 6,375 6,818 500 519 530 457 494 395 230 -15.3%India 7,385 7,722 132 493 -66 204 272 486 506 -53.1%Italy -250,519 -270,719 -22,909 -25,782 -13,519 -22,339 -25,998 -20,448 -15,347 0.0%Japan -2,267 303 -15 74 207 115 177 163 -73 109.7%Malaysia -4,015 -7,150 -732 -763 -732 -127 -273 -526 -552 4.4%Mexico 13,748 13,853 1,604 1,135 1,525 1,308 1,420 1,561 863 14.6%Netherlands 6,768 9,256 1,002 520 827 935 1,367 191 -360 -13.5%Poland 22,687 24,970 2,682 2,741 2,057 2,582 3,198 2,352 1,398 21.1%Romania 5,142 5,257 395 368 202 457 514 399 272 -12.7%Russia 11,629 12,111 803 1,333 841 612 353 485 1,237 -22.9%Slovakia 893 924 66 183 95 99 100 108 139 4.3%Spain 17,803 15,646 1,779 988 1,031 1,261 1,682 1,667 1,610 11.8%South Korea -30,022 -44,383 -2,014 -3,279 -1,905 -2,581 -3,153 -4,145 -2,344 -32.8%Taiwan -133,218 -153,546 -13,605 -13,187 -12,530 -14,333 -14,232 -11,562 -12,490 4.0%Thailand 8,399 6,014 529 436 934 527 1,087 958 1,627 28.9%UK 21,521 24,611 1,894 2,336 1,820 1,617 2,390 2,081 1,024 -0.4%Ukraine 2,253 4,033 383 356 345 357 286 377 183 13.8%USA (tons) 37,183 38,613 3,332 3,468 2,617 3,583 3,032 2,584 2,907 6.6%

Source: Metal Bulletin Research

Net imports of welded stainless steel tube and pipe (tonnes)

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