West Virginia’s Economic Outlook
John Deskins, Ph.D.
Bureau for Public Health
February 2017
Bureau of Business & Economic Research
College of Business & Economics
West Virginia University
www.be.wvu.edu/bber
Copyright ©2017 by WVU Research Corporation
Setting the Stage for Understanding
West Virginia’s Economy:
Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
Coal
Natural Gas
West Virginia Coal and Natural Gas Output
Coal Production (Millions of Short Tons, Annualized) Natural Gas Production (Billions of Cubic Feet)
Key Drivers of Demand Decline
• Environmental Regulatory Climate
• Natural Gas Boom
• International Demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Northern WV
Millions of short tons, annualized
Southern WV
West Virginia Regional Coal Production
Where Do We Stand?
Jobs, Income, and Output
Total Employment
128
130
132
134
136
138
140
142
144
675
680
685
690
695
700
705
710
715
US
West Virginia, Thousands, 4-quarter moving average United States, Millions
West Virginia
Unemployment Rate
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
US
% of Labor Force
West Virginia
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%
Pension Income
Wages & Salaries
Investment Income
Proprietor's Income
Personal Income
Residence Adjustment
Transfer Payments
Forecast Growth by Source of Real Personal Income, 2016-2021
Average Annual Growth, %
Historical and Forecast Share of Total Personal Income by Source
Wages & Salaries
40%
Transfer Payments
29%
Investment Income
13%
Pensions6%
Proprietor's Income
10%
Residence Adjustment, 2%
2001 2021
Wages & Salaries
43%
Transfer Payments
22%
Investment Income
15%
Pensions12%
Proprietor's Income
6%
Residence Adjustment, 2%
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
Real GDP Growth
Index, 2007=100
US
West Virginia
West Virginia w/o mining
Regional Economies in
West Virginia
Southern Coalfields
Randolph
Hardy
Kanawha
Preston
Grant
Pocahontas
Boone
Clay
Wayne
Roane
LoganMingo
Pendleton
Webster
Lewis
Braxton
Mason
Wood Ritchie
Tucker
Lincoln
Hampshire
Jackson
Wirt
Wyoming
McDowell
Tyler
Wetzel
Gilmer
Harrison
Upshur
Marion
Putnam
Mineral
Cabell
Barbour
Marshall Berkeley
Monongalia
Morgan
Taylor
Ohio
Calhoun
Doddridge
Jefferson
Pleasants
Brooke
Hancock
Real Wages: ↓ 28% since 2010Q1Employment: ↓ 21%
Nicholas
GreenbrierFayette
Raleigh
Mercer
MonroeSummers
New River Gorge Area
Randolph
Hardy
Kanawha
Preston
Grant
Pocahontas
Boone
Clay
Wayne
Roane
LoganMingo
Pendleton
Webster
Lewis
Braxton
Mason
Wood Ritchie
Tucker
Lincoln
Hampshire
Jackson
Wirt
Wyoming
McDowell
Tyler
Wetzel
Gilmer
Harrison
Upshur
Marion
Putnam
Mineral
Cabell
Barbour
Marshall Berkeley
Monongalia
Morgan
Taylor
Ohio
Calhoun
Doddridge
Jefferson
Pleasants
Brooke
Hancock
Real Wages: ↓ 2% since 2010Q1Employment: ↓ 4%
Nicholas
GreenbrierFayette
Raleigh
Mercer
MonroeSummers
Metro Valley
Randolph
Hardy
Kanawha
Preston
Grant
Pocahontas
Boone
Clay
Wayne
Roane
LoganMingo
Pendleton
Webster
Lewis
Braxton
Mason
Wood Ritchie
Tucker
Lincoln
Hampshire
Jackson
Wirt
Wyoming
McDowell
Tyler
Wetzel
Gilmer
Harrison
Upshur
Marion
Putnam
Mineral
Cabell
Barbour
Marshall Berkeley
Monongalia
Morgan
Taylor
Ohio
Calhoun
Doddridge
Jefferson
Pleasants
Brooke
Hancock
Real Wages: ↑ 6% since 2010Q1Employment: Unchanged
Nicholas
GreenbrierFayette
Raleigh
Mercer
MonroeSummers
Natural Gas Boom Region
Randolph
Hardy
Kanawha
Preston
Grant
Pocahontas
Boone
Clay
Wayne
Roane
LoganMingo
Pendleton
Webster
Lewis
Braxton
Mason
Wood Ritchie
Tucker
Lincoln
Hampshire
Jackson
Wirt
Wyoming
McDowell
Tyler
Wetzel
Gilmer
Harrison
Upshur
Marion
Putnam
Mineral
Cabell
Barbour
Marshall Berkeley
Monongalia
Morgan
Taylor
Ohio
Calhoun
Doddridge
Jefferson
Pleasants
Brooke
Hancock
Real Wages: ↑ 12% since 2010Q1Employment: ↑ 1%
Nicholas
GreenbrierFayette
Raleigh
Mercer
MonroeSummers
North-Central
Randolph
Hardy
Kanawha
Preston
Grant
Pocahontas
Boone
Clay
Wayne
Roane
LoganMingo
Pendleton
Webster
Lewis
Braxton
Mason
Wood Ritchie
Tucker
Lincoln
Hampshire
Jackson
Wirt
Wyoming
McDowell
Tyler
Wetzel
Gilmer
Harrison
Upshur
Marion
Putnam
Mineral
Cabell
Barbour
Marshall Berkeley
Monongalia
Morgan
Taylor
Ohio
Calhoun
Doddridge
Jefferson
Pleasants
Brooke
Hancock
Real Wages: ↑ 13% since 2010Q1Employment: ↑ 6%
Nicholas
GreenbrierFayette
Raleigh
Mercer
MonroeSummers
Eastern Panhandle
Randolph
Hardy
Kanawha
Preston
Grant
Pocahontas
Boone
Clay
Wayne
Roane
LoganMingo
Pendleton
Webster
Lewis
Braxton
Mason
Wood Ritchie
Tucker
Lincoln
Hampshire
Jackson
Wirt
Wyoming
McDowell
Tyler
Wetzel
Gilmer
Harrison
Upshur
Marion
Putnam
Mineral
Cabell
Barbour
Marshall Berkeley
Monongalia
Morgan
Taylor
Ohio
Calhoun
Doddridge
Jefferson
Pleasants
Brooke
Hancock
Real Wages: ↑ 20% since 2010Q1Employment: ↑ 14%
Nicholas
GreenbrierFayette
Raleigh
Mercer
MonroeSummers
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Eastern Panhandle and North-Central Region Adding Residents
Index, 1990=100
Eastern Panhandle
North Central WV
Rest of WV
Conversation Starters
Fostering an Entrepreneurial Culture
Conversation Starters
Human Capital:
Education and Health
53
63
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
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Labor Force Participation Rate, 2015
Percent of Civilian Non-institutionalized Population
Share of Residents 25 to 34 Years Old
with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 2014
AK
HI
TX
CA
MT
AZ
ID
NV
CO
KS
IL
NM
OR
UT
SD
WY
NEIA
FL
OK
MN
ND
AL
WI
GA
AR
WA
MO
LA
PA
NY
NC
IN
KY
MI
TN
MS
VA
OH
SC
ME
WV
VT NH
NJ
MD
MA
CT
DE
RI
% With a BSDegree or Higher
21.9 - 27.1
27.2 - 31.9
32.0 – 35.9
36.0 - 50.1
Share of Population 18 to 64 Years Old with Disability, 2014
18%
10.5%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%W
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No
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Dak
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AK
HI
All-Cause Mortality Rate, 2014
TX
CA
MT
AZ
ID
NV
NM
CO
IL
OR
UT
KS
WY
IA
NE
SD
MN
ND
OK
FL
WI
MO
WA
AL GA
AR
LA
MI
IN
PA
NY
NC
MS
TN
VA
KY
OH
SC
ME
WV
VT
NH
MD
NJ
MA
CT
DE
RH
DC
588 - 665
666 - 712
740 - 819
713 - 742
Age-Adjusted Deaths per
100,000 Population
820 - 938
Conversation Starters
Thinking About Public Policy
Conversation Starters
Thinking About Good
Government
