Western Canada Employer Educator Oil & Gas Forum

Funded in part by the Government of Canada and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers

November 27, 2014

Cheryl Knight, Special Advisor, Petroleum Human Resources Council

The Decade Ahead:

Labour Market Outlook to 2022 for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry

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Agenda

• Introduction

• Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry Labour Market Outlook to 2022

• A Closer Look at Workforce Needs in the Oil Sands Sector

• Recommended Workforce Solutions

2 www.careersinoilandgas.com

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Business Trends Impacting Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry

• Attraction of investment

– Oil sands, especially in situ

– Liquefied natural gas (LNG)

– Shale/conventional oil

– Hebron offshore project

• Joint ventures with Asian companies

– Longer-term view of development and learning opportunity

• Downside risks

– Single customer market (US)

– Lack of infrastructure to support market diversification

– Skill shortages


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Oil and Gas Industry Activity – Two Scenarios

4

Low Growth Scenario Expansion Scenario

Market diversification does not occur

• Growth is driven by North American demand

• Moderate increases to conventional oil and oil sands production

• Continued focus on liquids-rich natural gas

Market diversification occurs

• Canadian producers supply international markets

• Debottleneck/expansion of oil pipelines

• Development of LNG export facilities and pipelines

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Occupations with Greatest Net Hiring Requirements to 2022

TEN OCCUPATIONS WITH GREATEST NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS* TO 2022 (# of job openings Low Growth – Expansion)

Industry Total (62,440 – 84,030 )

1 Power engineers (steam-ticketed operators) 2,945 – 4,105

2 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 2,425 – 3,990

3 Oil and gas well drillers, servicers, testers, and related workers 2,945 – 3,985

4 Drilling coordinators/production managers 3,050 – 3,945

5 Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and service 2,930 – 3,640

6 Oil and gas drilling, servicing, and related labourers 2,415 – 3,480

7 Petroleum engineers 2,150 – 2,910

8 Truck drivers 2,200 – 2,825

9 Oil and gas well drilling workers and service operators 1,860 – 2,590

10 Geologists and geophysicists 1,715 – 2,305

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*Net hiring requirements = hiring due to industry activity + age-related attrition (excludes non-retirement turnover)


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Occupations with Above-Average Age-Related Attrition Rates

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OCCUPATION

AVERAGE AGE OF THE

LABOUR FORCE

TEN-YEAR AVERAGE

AGE-RELATED ATTRITION RATE

Industry Total 40 23%Supervisors, petroleum, gas and chemical processing and utilities 44 32%

Drilling coordinators/production managers 44 31%

Geologists and geophysicists 44 29%

Industrial engineering and manufacturing technologists and technicians 42 29%

Inspectors in public and environmental health and safety 42 29%

Purchasing agents and officers 42 28%

Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and service 43 27%

Non-destructive testers and inspection technicians 40 26%

Petroleum engineers and crane operators 42 25%

Project engineers and industrial electricians 41 25%

Drafting technologists and technicians 40 25%

Petroleum/mining/geological engineering technologists 38 25%

Civil engineers 42 24%

Electrical/instrumentation engineers 40 24%

Instrumentation engineering technologists 39 24%

Power engineers (or steam-ticketed operators) 38 24%


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Long-Term Hiring Outlook (2013 – 2022)

Total recruitment activity over the next decade ranges between 125,000 and 150,000 to meet industry activity, age-related attrition and a 3 per cent non-retirement turnover.


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Provincial Analysis: Employment and Net Hiring

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British Columbia (BC) Alberta (AB)

2012 employment = 12,000 workers

Low growth scenario net hiring = 3,100 openings (26 percent of 2012 employment)

Expansion scenario net hiring = 4,100 openings (34 percent of 2012 employment)




Saskatchewan (SK) Rest of Canada (RoC)








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Employment Impacts of Oil and Gas Investment and Activities to 2022

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Investments and activities by the oil and gas industry benefit all Canadians.


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Oil Sands Operations Employment Outlook to 2023

Over the next decade, oil sands operations is projected to add 15,300 new jobs – with employment estimated at 41,900 workers by 2023.

10

E = Estimated; F = Forecasted


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Occupations with Greatest Job Increases due to Industry Activity

Power engineers and heavy equipment operators account for close to 30 per cent of new jobs created between 2014 and 2023.

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TOP 10 OIL SANDS OCCUPATIONS WITH GREATEST JOB INCREASES DUE TO INDUSTRY ACTIVITY TO 2023

Total Oil Sands Operations 15,330

Power engineers and power systems operators (9241) 2,895

Heavy equipment operators (except crane) (7521) 1,470

Petroleum engineers (2145) 825

Engineering managers (0211) 660

Facility operation and maintenance managers (0714) 555

Heavy-duty equipment mechanics (7312) 495

Managers in natural resources production and fishing (0811) 465

Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics (2243) 405

Mechanical engineers (2132) 375

Geoscientists and oceanographers (2113) 325


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Managerial Occupations

Retirements amongst managers and supervisors will lead to a loss of knowledge, experience and mentoring capacity and will have a negative impact on workforce development and productivity.

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MANAGERIAL OCCUPATIONS WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023

Average Net Hiring Requirements Across All Occupations: 82%

1 Purchasing managers (0113) 125%

2Contractors and supervisors, machining, metal forming, shaping and erecting trades and related occupations (7201)

100%

3 Managers in natural resources production and fishing (0811) 97%

4 Contractors and supervisors, mechanic trades (7301) 95%

5 Engineering managers (0211) 94%

6 Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations (1215) 91%

7 Construction managers (0711) 91%

8 Contractors and supervisors, electrical trades and telecommunications occupations (7202) 88%


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Supply Chain Occupations Needed for Expansion and Production

Oil sands investment and accelerated growth are driving demand for oil and gas services, materials, equipment manufacturing and rentals, contracted professional and technical services and the need for supply chain management, procurement and logistics occupations.

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SUPPLY CHAIN OCCUPATIONS WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2023

Average Net Hiring Requirements Across All Occupations: 82%

Purchasing managers (0113) 125%

Purchasing agents and officers (1225) 118%

Shippers and receivers (1521) 95%

Purchasing and inventory control workers (1524) 94%

Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations (1215) 91%


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Demand-driven Workforce Solutions


Given the global competitiveness for skilled workers, industry must continue working with government, education and training institutions and other labour supply stakeholders to increase the talent pool for the oil and gas industry.

www.petrohrsc.ca15 Funded in part by the Government of Canada and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers

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Western Canada Employer Educator Oil & Gas Forum

Recruiting & HR